2012 US Presidential Election Pollster Ratings (original) (raw)
2012 US Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the November 6, 2012 US Presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2012 Presidential Election | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obama | Romney | OddsRatio | Accuracy | |
| Pew | 48% | 45% | 0.99 | -0.01 |
| Democracy Corps | 49% | 45% | 1.01 | 0.01 |
| High Point University | 46% | 43% | 0.99 | -0.01 |
| ABC/Post | 50% | 47% | 0.98 | -0.02 |
| Angus-Reid | 51% | 48% | 0.98 | -0.02 |
| United Technologies/National Journal | 50% | 45% | 1.03 | 0.03 |
| YouGov | 49% | 47% | 0.96 | -0.04* |
| Ipsos/Reuters | 48% | 46% | 0.96 | -0.04 |
| DailyKos/SEIU/PPP | 50% | 49% | 0.96 | -0.04 |
| PPP | 50% | 48% | 0.96 | -0.04 |
| YouGov/Economist | 49% | 47% | 0.96 | -0.04 |
| UPI/CVOTER | 49% | 48% | 0.94 | -0.06 |
| NBC/WSJ | 48% | 47% | 0.94 | -0.06 |
| Purple Strategies | 47% | 46% | 0.94 | -0.06 |
| IBD/TIPP | 50% | 49% | 0.94 | -0.06 |
| ARG | 49% | 49% | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| Politico/GWU/Battelground | 47% | 47% | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| JZ Analytics/Newsmax | 47% | 47% | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| Gravis Marketing | 48% | 48% | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| CNN | 49% | 49% | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| Washington Times/JZ Analytics | 49% | 49% | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| Fox | 46% | 46% | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| Monmouth | 48% | 48% | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| Rasmussen | 48% | 49% | 0.91 | -0.10* |
| Gallup | 48% | 49% | 0.91 | -0.10* |
| Actual | 51.06% | 47.21% |
The accuracy measures for 22 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.
*The accuracy measures for the YouGov poll (sample size of 36,472), the Rasmussen poll (sample size of 1,500), and the Gallup poll (sample size of 2,551) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
The absolute average accuracy for all polls in 2012 is 0.055. The absolute average accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.