Climate endgame (original) (raw)
Climate endgame is the name some scientists have given to the hypothesis of a global societal collapse due to effects of climate change. The real chance of happening is considered small, but the researchers who warned most resoundingly about this danger in August 2022 seek to improve risk management by putting a higher priority on worst-case scenarios, to "galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy". These experts belong to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, a research centre at the University of Cambridge.
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| dbo:abstract | Climate endgame is the name some scientists have given to the hypothesis of a global societal collapse due to effects of climate change. The real chance of happening is considered small, but the researchers who warned most resoundingly about this danger in August 2022 seek to improve risk management by putting a higher priority on worst-case scenarios, to "galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy". These experts belong to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, a research centre at the University of Cambridge. The collapse would come through a set of interrelated concurrent factors such as famine (crop loss, drought), extreme weather (hurricanes, floods), war (caused by the scarce resources) and conflict, systemic risk (relating to migration, famine, or conflict), and disease. The team of international experts led by Cambridge University also warn about tipping points: small rises in global temperature which result in big changes in the climate. These tipping points could trigger others in a cascade (domino effect), in a non-linear way, which makes their effects hard to estimate. Unintended consequences (knock-on effects) could also unleash. These findings were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The study found the risk to be a "dangerously underexplored" global topic, despite and "integrated catastrophe assessment" to be missing. Other scientists had previously warned about this hypothesis, but may have found less echo. For example, the fifth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (April 2021), or John van der Velden and Rob White in their book The Extinction Curve (January 2021). The concept had been previously named climate apocalypse. Explorations in the 1980s of the nuclear winter that would follow a nuclear war spurred public concern and disarmament efforts, the researchers say. (en) Final climático (climate endgame) es el nombre que algunos científicos han dado a la hipótesis de un colapso social mundial debido a los efectos del calentamiento mundial. La probabilidad de que suceda se considera pequeña, pero estos expertos (que pertenecen al Centro para el Estudio del Riesgo Existencial, un organismo de investigación de la Universidad de Cambridge) quieren advertir sobre la peor de las posibilidades con los objetivos de mejorar la gestión de riesgos, «impulsar la acción, mejorar la resiliencia y que se tenga en cuenta en las políticas que se formulen». El concepto había sido denominado anteriormente apocalipsis climático. Este miedo es, en cierta forma, análogo al del invierno nuclear, algo que podría ocurrir en el peor de los casos, y que fue ampliamente estudiado y analizado durante la Guerra Fría. También puede considerarse una manifestación de ecoansiedad. El colapso vendría a través de 4 factores: hambruna (pérdida de cosechas, sequía), clima extremo (huracanes, inundaciones), guerra (causada por la escasez de recursos) y enfermedades. Estos científicos, un equipo de expertos internacionales dirigido por la Universidad de Cambridge, también advierten sobre los puntos de inflexión: pequeños aumentos en la temperatura global que resultan en grandes cambios en el clima. Estos puntos de inflexión podrían desencadenar otros en cascada (efecto dominó), de forma no lineal, lo que hace que sus efectos sean difíciles de estimar. También podrían desencadenarse consecuencias imprevistas e indeseadas (efectos colaterales). Los nombres de estos expertos son Luke Kemp, Chi Xu, Joanna Depledge, Kristie L. Ebi, Goodwin Gibbins, Timothy A. Kohler, Johan Rockström, Marten Scheffer, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Will Steffen y Timothy M. Lenton. Han publicado su artículo en la prestigiosa revista Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). (es) |
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| rdfs:comment | Climate endgame is the name some scientists have given to the hypothesis of a global societal collapse due to effects of climate change. The real chance of happening is considered small, but the researchers who warned most resoundingly about this danger in August 2022 seek to improve risk management by putting a higher priority on worst-case scenarios, to "galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy". These experts belong to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, a research centre at the University of Cambridge. (en) Final climático (climate endgame) es el nombre que algunos científicos han dado a la hipótesis de un colapso social mundial debido a los efectos del calentamiento mundial. La probabilidad de que suceda se considera pequeña, pero estos expertos (que pertenecen al Centro para el Estudio del Riesgo Existencial, un organismo de investigación de la Universidad de Cambridge) quieren advertir sobre la peor de las posibilidades con los objetivos de mejorar la gestión de riesgos, «impulsar la acción, mejorar la resiliencia y que se tenga en cuenta en las políticas que se formulen». (es) |
| rdfs:label | Climate endgame (en) Final climático (es) |
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