Swing vote (original) (raw)
부동표(浮動票, 영어: swing vote)는 선거때마다 지지하는 후보와 정당을 바꾸거나 일정한 선거일이 올때까지 지지하는 후보와 정당이 정해지지 않은 불투명한 투표이다. 영미권에서는 부동층 유권자들을 스윙 보터(swing voter) 또는 마음이 흔들리는 유권자라는 뜻을 가진 플로팅 보터(floating voter)라고 한다. 부동표는 선거에 출마한 후보와 정당의 막판 승부를 가르는 중요한 변수이다. 선거에서 누구에게 투표해야 할지 결정하지 못하는 유권자들은 지지하는 정당, 정치인이 없는 사람들로서 그때그때의 정치 상황이나 맘에 드는 정책에 따라 투표를 하곤 한다. 이들의 표로 한순간에 판이 뒤집힐 수 있기 때문에 선거에서 중요한 열쇠 역할로 어마어마한 영향력을 가지고 있다.
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| dbo:abstract | يوضح تحليل التأرجح الانتخابي (أو سوينج) مدى تغير تأييد الناخبين عادة من انتخابات إلى أخرى، ويتم التعبير عنه بنسبة مئوية سالبة أو موجبة. إن التأرجح المتعدد الأحزاب مؤشر على التغيير في تفضيل الناخبين بين اثنين أو أكثر من المرشحين أو الأحزاب (مثل السياسة المحافظة إلى الديمقراطية الاشتراكية). ويمكن حساب التأرجح للناخبين ككل، لمنطقة انتخابية معينة أو لإحصائيات سكانية معينة. إن التأرجح مفيد بشكل خاص لتحليل التغيير في تأييد الناخبين بمرور الوقت، أو كأداة للتنبؤ بنتائج الانتخابات في الأنظمة المعتمدة على الدوائر الانتخابية. كما يتم أيضًا نشر هذا التأرجح بشكل مفيد عند تحليل التحول في نوايا الناخبين التي كشفت عنها استطلاعات الرأي (السياسية) أو لمقارنة الاستطلاعات بإيجاز التي قد تعتمد على عينات مختلفة وتأرجحات مختلفة بشكل ملحوظ وبالتالي التنبؤ بنتائج غريبة. (ar) Wechselwähler sind in einem engeren Wortsinn Wähler, die bei zwei aufeinander folgenden Parlamentswahlen zwei verschiedene Parteien wählen. In einem weiteren Wortsinn werden auch solche Wahlberechtigte als Wechselwähler bezeichnet, die bei der ersten oder der zweiten Wahl von ihrem Recht, keine Partei zu wählen, durch Nichtteilnahme am Wahlvorgang, durch Stimmenthaltung oder durch eine absichtlich ungültige Stimmabgabe Gebrauch machen. Die Möglichkeit, bei einer geheimen Wahl einen leeren Stimmzettel abzugeben oder ungültig zu wählen, besteht auch in Ländern mit Wahlpflicht. Das Verhalten eines Wechselwählers steht im Gegensatz zu dem eines Stammwählers, der bei jeder Wahl dieselbe Partei wählt. Nicht als Wechselwähler gelten Bürger, die nach dem Namenswechsel einer Partei erneut die betreffende Partei wählen (Beispiel: PDS → Die Linke). (de) A swing vote is a vote that is seen as potentially going to any of a number of candidates in an election, or, in a two-party system, may go to either of the two dominant political parties. Such votes are usually sought after in election campaigns, since they can play a big role in determining the outcome. A swing voter or floating voter is a voter who may not be affiliated with a particular political party (Independent) or who will vote across party lines. In American politics, many centrists, liberal Republicans, and conservative Democrats are considered "swing voters" since their voting patterns cannot be predicted with certainty. While the swing voter is ostensibly the target of most political activity during elections, another factor is the success of each party in rallying its core support. In a two-party system, those who become disillusioned with their once-favored party are more likely to vote third-party or abstain than cross over. Smaller groups that use voting to decide matters, such as chambers of parliament and supreme courts, can also have swing voters. The smaller the group, the more power swing voters can have. For example, on a court of seven judges, of which three are committed to each side of a case, the seventh judge may be seen as single-handedly deciding the case. (en) 부동표(浮動票, 영어: swing vote)는 선거때마다 지지하는 후보와 정당을 바꾸거나 일정한 선거일이 올때까지 지지하는 후보와 정당이 정해지지 않은 불투명한 투표이다. 영미권에서는 부동층 유권자들을 스윙 보터(swing voter) 또는 마음이 흔들리는 유권자라는 뜻을 가진 플로팅 보터(floating voter)라고 한다. 부동표는 선거에 출마한 후보와 정당의 막판 승부를 가르는 중요한 변수이다. 선거에서 누구에게 투표해야 할지 결정하지 못하는 유권자들은 지지하는 정당, 정치인이 없는 사람들로서 그때그때의 정치 상황이나 맘에 드는 정책에 따라 투표를 하곤 한다. 이들의 표로 한순간에 판이 뒤집힐 수 있기 때문에 선거에서 중요한 열쇠 역할로 어마어마한 영향력을 가지고 있다. (ko) Een zwevende kiezer is een persoon die niet verbonden is met een politieke partij of politicus of iemand die ook bereid is op andere partijen te stemmen tijdens een verkiezing dan de partij waar hij/zij mee is verbonden. Vooral vlak voor verkiezingen spelen zwevende kiezers een belangrijke rol, aangezien zij de uitslag van een verkiezing soms onvoorspelbaar maken. Daarnaast maken de zwevende kiezers vaak hun keuze door wat er zich op dat bepaalde moment afspeelt. Hierbij speelt de persoonlijkheid van partijleiders een belangrijke rol. Vaak wordt een zwevende kiezer vlak voor de verkiezingen overgehaald om op een bepaalde partij te stemmen. (nl) 游離票 （swing voter），又稱中立選民，指的是在一次選舉未有在事前決定投票意向的人士。這些人比較依靠選舉前夕的宣傳、議題和事件決定立場，而非某候選人或政黨的堅定支持者「死忠選民」。 中立選民或中間選民，每次選舉時支持的對象不一樣，會投給不同政治色彩的政黨，此稱為。一般選舉中由於中立選民常是致勝關鍵，故為各政黨爭取支持的對象。 (zh) |
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| rdfs:comment | 부동표(浮動票, 영어: swing vote)는 선거때마다 지지하는 후보와 정당을 바꾸거나 일정한 선거일이 올때까지 지지하는 후보와 정당이 정해지지 않은 불투명한 투표이다. 영미권에서는 부동층 유권자들을 스윙 보터(swing voter) 또는 마음이 흔들리는 유권자라는 뜻을 가진 플로팅 보터(floating voter)라고 한다. 부동표는 선거에 출마한 후보와 정당의 막판 승부를 가르는 중요한 변수이다. 선거에서 누구에게 투표해야 할지 결정하지 못하는 유권자들은 지지하는 정당, 정치인이 없는 사람들로서 그때그때의 정치 상황이나 맘에 드는 정책에 따라 투표를 하곤 한다. 이들의 표로 한순간에 판이 뒤집힐 수 있기 때문에 선거에서 중요한 열쇠 역할로 어마어마한 영향력을 가지고 있다. (ko) Een zwevende kiezer is een persoon die niet verbonden is met een politieke partij of politicus of iemand die ook bereid is op andere partijen te stemmen tijdens een verkiezing dan de partij waar hij/zij mee is verbonden. Vooral vlak voor verkiezingen spelen zwevende kiezers een belangrijke rol, aangezien zij de uitslag van een verkiezing soms onvoorspelbaar maken. Daarnaast maken de zwevende kiezers vaak hun keuze door wat er zich op dat bepaalde moment afspeelt. Hierbij speelt de persoonlijkheid van partijleiders een belangrijke rol. Vaak wordt een zwevende kiezer vlak voor de verkiezingen overgehaald om op een bepaalde partij te stemmen. (nl) 游離票 （swing voter），又稱中立選民，指的是在一次選舉未有在事前決定投票意向的人士。這些人比較依靠選舉前夕的宣傳、議題和事件決定立場，而非某候選人或政黨的堅定支持者「死忠選民」。 中立選民或中間選民，每次選舉時支持的對象不一樣，會投給不同政治色彩的政黨，此稱為。一般選舉中由於中立選民常是致勝關鍵，故為各政黨爭取支持的對象。 (zh) يوضح تحليل التأرجح الانتخابي (أو سوينج) مدى تغير تأييد الناخبين عادة من انتخابات إلى أخرى، ويتم التعبير عنه بنسبة مئوية سالبة أو موجبة. إن التأرجح المتعدد الأحزاب مؤشر على التغيير في تفضيل الناخبين بين اثنين أو أكثر من المرشحين أو الأحزاب (مثل السياسة المحافظة إلى الديمقراطية الاشتراكية). ويمكن حساب التأرجح للناخبين ككل، لمنطقة انتخابية معينة أو لإحصائيات سكانية معينة. (ar) Wechselwähler sind in einem engeren Wortsinn Wähler, die bei zwei aufeinander folgenden Parlamentswahlen zwei verschiedene Parteien wählen. In einem weiteren Wortsinn werden auch solche Wahlberechtigte als Wechselwähler bezeichnet, die bei der ersten oder der zweiten Wahl von ihrem Recht, keine Partei zu wählen, durch Nichtteilnahme am Wahlvorgang, durch Stimmenthaltung oder durch eine absichtlich ungültige Stimmabgabe Gebrauch machen. Die Möglichkeit, bei einer geheimen Wahl einen leeren Stimmzettel abzugeben oder ungültig zu wählen, besteht auch in Ländern mit Wahlpflicht. Das Verhalten eines Wechselwählers steht im Gegensatz zu dem eines Stammwählers, der bei jeder Wahl dieselbe Partei wählt. (de) A swing vote is a vote that is seen as potentially going to any of a number of candidates in an election, or, in a two-party system, may go to either of the two dominant political parties. Such votes are usually sought after in election campaigns, since they can play a big role in determining the outcome. (en) |
| rdfs:label | صوت متأرجح (ar) Wechselwähler (de) 부동표 (ko) Zwevende kiezer (nl) Swing vote (en) 游離票 (zh) |
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