2019 Manitoba general election (original) (raw)

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2019 Manitoba general election
← 2016 September 10, 2019 2023 →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout 55.04%
First party Second party Brian Pallister with Andrew Scheer (48002323306).jpg Wab Kinew (cropped).jpg Leader Brian Pallister Wab Kinew Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since July 30, 2012 September 16, 2017 Leader's seat Fort Whyte Fort Rouge Last election 40 seats, 53.01% 14 seats, 25.73% Seats before 38 12 Seats won 36 18 Seat change Decrease2 Increase6 Popular vote 222,569 150,016 Percentage 46.81% 31.55% Swing Decrease6.27% Increase5.77% Third party Fourth party Leader Dougald Lamont James Beddome Party Liberal Green Leader since October 21, 2017 November 15, 2014 Leader's seat St. Boniface ran in Fort Rouge (lost) Last election 3 seats, 14.46% 0 seats, 5.07% Seats before 4 0 Seats won 3 0 Seat change Decrease1 Steady Popular vote 69,497 30,295 Percentage 14.62% 6.37% Swing Increase0.22% Increase1.30%
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed to the right.
Premier before election Brian Pallister Progressive Conservative Premier after election Brian Pallister Progressive Conservative

The 2019 Manitoba general election was held on September 10, 2019, to elect the 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.[1]

The incumbent Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Brian Pallister, were re-elected to a second majority government with a loss of two seats. The NDP, led by Wab Kinew, gained six seats and retained their position as the official opposition. The Liberals, led by Dougald Lamont, won the remaining three seats.

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[2] As the previous election was held in 2016, the latest possible date for the election was October 6, 2020, or if that would have overlapped with a federal election period, the latest possible date would be April 20, 2021.[3]

However, incumbent Premier Brian Pallister announced instead in June 2019 that he would seek to hold the election over a year early, on September 10, 2019, in order to seek "a new mandate to keep moving Manitoba forward." Pallister visited Lieutenant Governor Janice Filmon on August 12 to officially drop the writ and begin the campaign period.[4]

It had been speculated that Pallister would call an early election in order to take advantage of a large lead in opinion polls, and to get the vote out of the way before new and potentially unpopular budget cuts took effect. A poll taken by the Winnipeg Free Press found that while most respondents disagreed with the early election and agreed that Pallister had moved up the date for partisan reasons, such sentiments were unlikely to imperil Pallister's re-election.[5]

Electoral boundaries

[edit]

By law, Manitoba's electoral boundaries are reviewed every 10 years. The latest review was completed the end of 2018, meaning the 2019 elections were the first ones contested using the new boundaries.[6][7]

Movement in seats held

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41st Manitoba Legislature - Movement in seats held up to the election (2016-2019)

Party 2016 Gain/(loss) due to 2019
Resignationas MLA Expulsion/Suspension Switchingallegiance Byelection gain Byelection hold
Progressive Conservative 40 (2) 38
New Democratic 14 (2) (1) 1 12
Liberal 3 1 4
Manitoba First – 1 1
Independent – 3 (1) 2
Total 57 (2) – – 1 1 57

Changes in seats held (2016–2019)

Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Point Douglas January 9, 2017 Kevin Chief █ New Democratic Resignation June 13, 2017 Bernadette Smith █ New Democratic
The Maples January 31, 2017 Mohinder Saran █ New Democratic Suspended from caucus █ Independent
Assiniboia June 30, 2017 Steven Fletcher █ PC Expelled from caucus █ Independent
September 11, 2018 █ Independent Becomes leader of new party █ Manitoba First
St. Boniface March 7, 2018 Greg Selinger █ New Democratic Resignation July 17, 2018 Dougald Lamont █ Liberal
Emerson October 22, 2018 Cliff Graydon █ PC Expelled from caucus █ Independent

Historical results from 1990 onwards

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Graph of Manitoba general election results by share of votes, 1990–2019; omitted are minor parties consistently registering less than 2% of the vote.

Graph of Manitoba general election results by seats won, 1990–2019; those of independent MNAs are omitted.

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2019)[13]

Candidates PC NDP Lib Grn MFW M1ST Comm Ind Total
3 13 13 13 39
4 29 29 29 28 1 116
5 10 10 10 10 2 4 2 2 50
6 5 5 5 5 4 2 3 1 30
Total 57 57 57 43 7 6 5 3 235

Elections to the 42nd Manitoba Legislature[13]

Party Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2016 Dissolution 2019 +/- Votes % +/-
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 57 40 38 36 -4 222,569 46.81
New Democratic Wab Kinew 57 14 12 18 +4 150,016 31.55
Liberal Dougald Lamont 57 3 4 3 – 69,497 14.62
Green James Beddome 43 – – – – 30,295 6.37
Manitoba Forward Wayne Sturby 7 – – – – 1,339 0.28
Manitoba First[a] Douglas Petrick 6 – 1 – – 647 0.14
Communist Darrell Rankin 5 – – – – 214 0.05
Independents 3 – 2 – – 854 0.18 -0.29
Vacant 0 –
Valid votes 478,926 99.27
Blank and invalid votes 3,495 0.73
Total 235 57 57 57 482,421 100
Registered voters/turnout 870,137 55.44
Popular vote
PC 46.81%
New Democratic 31.55%
Liberal 14.62%
Green 6.37%
Others 0.64%
Seat summary
PC 63.16%
New Democratic 31.58%
Liberal 5.26%

Synopsis of results

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2019 Manitoba general election - synopsis of riding results[a 1]
Riding[a 2] 2016(Redist)[a 3] Winning party Turnout[a 4] Votes[a 5]
Party Votes Share Margin# Margin% PC NDP Lib Grn Ind Other Total
Agassiz PC PC 5,700 75.53% 4,736 62.75% 56.05% 5,700 964 463 420 – – 7,547
Assiniboia PC PC 4,108 44.25% 816 8.79% 54.70% 4,108 3,292 1,247 636 – – 9,283
Borderland PC PC 4,886 66.09% 3,660 49.50% 61.86% 4,886 291 1,226 250 740 – 7,393
Brandon East PC PC 3,294 51.00% 947 14.66% 45.68% 3,294 2,347 818 – – – 6,459
Brandon West PC PC 4,311 58.39% 2,554 34.59% 51.27% 4,311 1,757 567 748 – – 7,383
Burrows Lib NDP 2,555 39.70% 874 13.58% 46.08% 1,681 2,555 1,178 – – 1,022 6,436
Concordia NDP NDP 4,305 59.69% 2,010 27.87% 48.46% 2,295 4,305 612 – – – 7,212
Dauphin PC PC 4,805 50.52% 773 8.13% 58.62% 4,805 4,032 675 – – – 9,512
Dawson Trail PC PC 4,555 55.41% 2,675 32.54% 57.84% 4,555 1,785 1,880 – – – 8,220
Elmwood NDP NDP 3,886 48.68% 1,346 16.86% 50.23% 2,540 3,886 746 765 – 45 7,982
Flin Flon NDP NDP 3,173 63.19% 1,816 36.17% 33.91% 1,357 3,173 299 192 – – 5,021
Fort Garry PC NDP 4,003 42.35% 996 10.54% 61.69% 3,007 4,003 1,719 723 – – 9,452
Fort Richmond PC PC 3,242 42.15% 879 11.43% 57.38% 3,242 1,708 2,363 379 – – 7,692
Fort Rouge NDP NDP 5,055 51.24% 3,198 32.41% 58.76% 1,857 5,055 1,290 1,580 – 84 9,866
Fort Whyte PC PC 5,619 57.19% 3,862 39.30% 60.35% 5,619 1,757 1,731 665 – 54 9,826
Interlake-Gimli PC PC 6,165 58.62% 2,687 25.55% 65.56% 6,165 3,478 400 473 – – 10,516
Keewatinook Liberal NDP 1,932 67.08% 1,397 48.51% 21.84% 413 1,932 535 – – – 2,880
Kildonan-River East PC PC 5,523 51.10% 1,844 17.06% 61.82% 5,523 3,679 1,607 – – – 10,809
Kirkfield Park PC PC 5,445 50.36% 2,668 24.67% 61.25% 5,445 2,777 1,695 896 – – 10,813
La Verendrye PC PC 5,310 72.79% 4,264 58.45% 55.41% 5,310 1,046 939 – – – 7,295
Lac du Bonnet PC PC 6,177 65.91% 4,363 46.55% 61.24% 6,177 1,814 1,381 – – – 9,372
Lagimodière PC PC 5,187 51.78% 2,395 23.91% 62.27% 5,187 2,792 1,481 557 – – 10,018
Lakeside PC PC 6,409 68.24% 4,320 46.00% 59.22% 6,409 2,089 894 – – – 9,392
McPhillips PC PC 3,359 38.19% 88 1.00% 56.64% 3,359 3,271 1,506 414 – 245 8,795
Midland PC PC 6,706 75.01% 5,334 59.66% 59.27% 6,706 1,372 862 – – – 8,940
Morden-Winkler PC PC 6,109 80.86% 5,305 70.22% 51.19% 6,109 365 277 804 – – 7,555
Notre Dame NDP NDP 3,420 65.01% 2,626 49.91% 40.86% 794 3,420 719 267 – 61 5,261
Point Douglas NDP NDP 3,136 62.35% 2,373 47.18% 36.00% 763 3,136 594 414 – 123 5,030
Portage la Prairie PC PC 4,502 65.67% 2,994 43.68% 48.64% 4,502 1,508 845 – – – 6,855
Radisson PC PC 4,527 46.97% 989 10.26% 56.47% 4,527 3,538 1,002 572 – – 9,639
Red River North PC PC 5,569 57.97% 3,180 33.10% 63.96% 5,569 2,389 735 740 – 173 9,606
Riding Mountain PC PC 6,126 65.91% 4,156 44.72% 55.72% 6,126 1,970 472 726 – – 9,294
Riel PC PC 4,734 44.75% 990 9.36% 63.24% 4,734 3,744 1,471 630 – – 10,579
River Heights Lib Lib 5,884 53.79% 3,182 29.09% 65.48% 2,702 1,595 5,884 757 – – 10,938
Roblin PC PC 6,203 55.19% 4,180 37.19% 61.83% 6,203 2,023 1,775 1,238 – – 11,239
Rossmere PC PC 4,369 46.91% 751 8.06% 59.62% 4,369 3,618 711 615 – – 9,313
Seine River PC PC 4,372 45.04% 1,847 19.03% 62.12% 4,372 2,525 2,151 659 – – 9,707
Selkirk PC PC 4,872 51.84% 1,543 16.42% 59.25% 4,872 3,329 482 716 – – 9,399
Southdale PC PC 4,493 42.40% 483 4.56% 61.66% 4,493 4,010 1,427 595 – 71 10,596
Springfield-Ritchot PC PC 5,670 59.48% 3,688 38.69% 60.56% 5,670 1,982 814 1,066 – – 9,532
Spruce Woods PC PC 5,665 68.06% 4,344 52.19% 56.75% 5,665 1,321 517 820 – – 8,323
St. Boniface NDP Lib 4,152 41.68% 1,177 11.82% 59.78% 1,907 2,975 4,152 845 – 81 9,960
St. James PC NDP 4,002 47.25% 1,221 14.42% 55.78% 2,781 4,002 880 806 – – 8,469
St. Johns NDP NDP 3,548 51.88% 1,874 27.40% 47.34% 1,674 3,548 1,111 506 – – 6,839
St. Vital PC NDP 4,092 44.47% 881 9.58% 60.78% 3,211 4,092 1,274 502 62 60 9,201
Steinbach PC PC 6,241 81.64% 5,625 73.58% 52.49% 6,241 616 370 418 – – 7,645
Swan River PC PC 5,546 68.87% 3,462 42.99% 54.87% 5,546 2,084 423 – – – 8,053
The Maples NDP NDP 2,792 39.51% 689 9.75% 53.08% 1,883 2,792 2,103 289 – – 7,067
The Pas-Kameesak NDP NDP 3,180 57.90% 1,844 33.58% 43.04% 1,336 3,180 186 790 – – 5,492
Thompson PC NDP 2,686 54.55% 929 18.87% 37.27% 1,757 2,686 183 298 – – 4,924
Transcona PC NDP 4,030 46.42% 112 1.29% 52.45% 3,918 4,030 734 – – – 8,682
Turtle Mountain PC PC 6,210 67.48% 4,838 52.57% 57.28% 6,210 1,003 618 1,372 – – 9,203
Tuxedo PC PC 4,645 47.85% 2,358 24.29% 57.90% 4,645 1,921 2,287 793 – 61 9,707
Tyndall Park NDP Lib 4,301 54.67% 1,898 24.13% 56.39% 984 2,403 4,301 157 – 22 7,867
Union Station NDP NDP 2,913 52.62% 1,876 33.89% 44.06% 950 2,913 1,037 538 – 98 5,536
Waverley PC PC 3,267 50.05% 1,400 21.45% 51.95% 3,267 1,867 1,070 324 – – 6,528
Wolseley NDP NDP 4,271 46.03% 931 10.03% 56.96% 838 4,271 778 3,340 52 – 9,279
  1. ^ "Results Summary - 42nd General Election" (PDF). electionsmanitoba.ca. Elections Manitoba. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  2. ^ sorted as per results summary
  3. ^ Marcoux, Jacques (August 27, 2019). "New Manitoba election boundaries give upper hand to Progressive Conservatives, CBC News analysis finds". CBC News.
  4. ^ including rejected and declined ballots
  5. ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote in 2019 are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

= open seat

= turnout is above provincial average

= incumbency arose from byelection gain

= incumbent re-elected in same riding

= incumbent changed allegiance

= previously incumbent in another riding

= other incumbent renominated

Party candidates in 2nd place[13]

Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
PC NDP Liberal Grn
Progressive Conservative 30 4 2
New Democratic 14 3 1
Liberal 1 2
Total 15 32 7 3 57

Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results[13]

Parties Seats
█ Progressive Conservative █ New Democratic 44
█ Progressive Conservative █ Liberal 5
█ Progressive Conservative █ Green 2
█ New Democratic █ Liberal 5
█ New Democratic █ Green 1
Total 57

Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party[13]

Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total
Progressive Conservative 36 15 6 57
New Democratic 18 32 6 1 57
Liberal 3 7 32 15 57
Green 3 12 27 1 43
Manitoba First 5 5
Manitoba Forward 1 3 4
Independent 1 2 3

Seats changing hands

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Elections to the 42nd Legislative Assembly of Manitoba – seats won/lost by party, 2016–2019

Party 2016(Redist) Gain from (loss to) 2019
PC NDP Lib
Progressive Conservative 41 (5) 36
New Democratic 13 5 2 (2) 18
Liberal 3 2 (2) 3
Total 57 5 – 2 (7) 2 (2) 57

Nine seats changed allegiance in 2019:

Resulting composition of the 42nd Legislative Assembly of Manitoba

Source Party
PC NDP Lib Total
Seats retained Incumbents returned 29 7 1 37
Seats retained by incumbents from other ridings 5 5
Open seats held 1 4 5
Ouster of incumbent changing affiliation 1 1
Seats changing hands Incumbents defeated 3 3
Open seats gained 4 4
Seat gained by incumbent from another riding 1 1
Byelection gain held 1 1
Total 36 18 3 57

Incumbents not running for reelection

[edit]

| Riding | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee | New MLA | | | | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | --------------------------------------------------------- | | Assiniboia | | Steven Fletcher[15] (elected as PC) | none | | Scott Johnston | | Fort Garry-Riverview (redistributed to Fort Garry) | | James Allum[16] | Mark Wasyliw[17] | | Mark Wasyliw | | Kildonan (redistributed to Kildonan-River East) | | Nic Curry[12] | Cathy Cox | | Cathy Cox | | Logan (redistributed to Notre Dame and Union Station) | | Flor Marcelino[18] | Uzoma Asagwara | | Uzoma Asagwara | | Wolseley | | Rob Altemeyer[19] | Lisa Naylor[20] | | Lisa Naylor | | Minto (redistributed to Notre Dame) | | Andrew Swan[21] | Malaya Marcelino | | Malaya Marcelino | | Keewatinook | | Judy Klassen[22] | Jason Harper | | Ian Bushie |

Candidates by riding

[edit]

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ----- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | -------------------------- | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | | | | | | | | | Flin Flon | | Theresa Wride 1,294 - 30.7% | | Tom Lindsey 2,435 - 57.8% | | James Lindsay 270 - 6.6% | | Saara Murnick 203 - 4.8% | | Tom Lindsey | | Keewatinook | | Arnold Flett 355 - 13.6% | | Ian Bushie 1,723 - 66.1% | | Jason Harper 530 - 20.3% | | | | Judy Klassen | | Swan River | | Rick Wowchuk 5,529 - 69.0% | | Shelley Wiggins 2,064 - 25.8% | | David Teffaine 417 - 5.2% | | | | Rick Wowchuk | | The Pas-Kameesak | | Ron Evans 1,324 - 24.8% | | Amanda Lathlin 3,054 - 57.2% | | Ken Brandt 178 - 3.3% | | Ralph McLean 780 - 14.6% | | Amanda Lathlin The Pas | | Thompson | | Kelly Bindle 1,750 - 35.9% | | Danielle Adams 2,651 - 54.4% | | Darla Contois 177 - 3.6% | | Meagan Jemmett 294 - 6.0% | | Kelly Bindle |

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----- | --------------------------------------- | | -------------------------------- | | ------------------------------- | | ------------------------------------------------------------------- | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | | | | | | | | | Agassiz | | Eileen Clarke 5,688 - 75.6% | | Kelly Legaspi 954 - 12.7% | | Hector Swanson 462 - 6.1% | | Liz Clayton 417 - 5.5% | | Eileen Clarke | | Turtle Mountain | | Doyle Piwniuk 6,202 - 67.5% | | Angie Herrera-Hildebrand 1,003 - 10.9% | | Richard Davies 623 - 6.8% | | David M. Neufeld 1,356 - 14.8% | | Doyle Piwniuk_Arthur-Virden_ | | Brandon East | | Len Isleifson 3,272 - 51.3% | | Lonnie Patterson 2,311 - 36.2% | | Kim Longstreet 799 - 12.5% | | | | Len Isleifson | | Brandon West | | Reg Helwer 4,307 - 58.5% | | Nick Brown 1,747 - 23.7% | | Sunday Frangi 564 - 7.7% | | Robert Brown 744 - 10.1% | | Reg Helwer | | Dauphin | | Brad Michaleski 4,799 - 50.5% | | Darcy Scheller 4,022 - 42.4% | | Cathy Scofield-Singh 674 - 7.1% | | | | Brad Michaleski | | Riding Mountain | | Greg Nesbitt 6,117 - 66.1% | | Wayne Chacun 1,961 - 21.2% | | Jordan Fleury 454 - 4.9% | | Mary Lowe 723 - 7.8% | | Greg Nesbitt | | Spruce Woods | | Cliff Cullen 5,657 - 68.1% | | Justin Shannon 1,316 - 15.8% | | Jennifer Harcus 515 - 6.2% | | Gordon Beddome 816 - 9.8% | | Cliff Cullen |

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----- | ------------------------------- | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ------------------------------ | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other | | | | | | | | | | Borderland | | Josh Guenter 4,885 - 66.1% | | Liz Cronk 287 - 3.9% | | Loren Braul 1,226 - 16.6% | | Ken Henry 250 - 3.4% | | Cliff Graydon 739 - 10.0%[23] | | Cliff Graydon Emerson | | Interlake-Gimli | | Derek Johnson 6,199 - 58.8% | | Sarah Pinsent 3,472 - 32.9% | | Mary Lou Bourgeois 400 - 3.8% | | Dwight Harfield 473 - 4.5% | | | | Jeff Wharton‡_Gimli_ | | Merged District | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Derek JohnsonInterlake | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Lakeside | | Ralph Eichler 6,394 - 68.7% | | Dan Rugg 2,054 - 22.1% | | Ilsa Regelsky 854 - 9.2% | | | | | | Ralph Eichler | | Midland | | Blaine Pedersen 6,700 - 75.0% | | Cindy Friesen 1,370 - 15.3% | | Julia Sisler 860 - 9.6% | | | | | | Blaine Pedersen | | Morden-Winkler | | Cameron Friesen 6,096 - 81.2% | | Robin Dalloo 365 - 4.9% | | David Mintz 277 - 3.7% | | Mike Urichuk 769 - 10.2% | | | | Cameron Friesen | | Springfield-Ritchot | | Ron Schuler 5,661 - 59.5% | | Obasesam Okoi 1,976 - 20.8% | | Sara Mirwaldt 813 - 8.5% | | Garrett Hawgood 1,065 - 11.2% | | | | Shannon Martin Morris | | Portage la Prairie | | Ian Wishart 4,489 - 65.5% | | Andrew Podolecki 1,521 - 22.2% | | Charles Huband 843 - 12.3% | | | | | | Ian Wishart |

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ----- | ----------------------------- | | ---------------------------- | | -------------------------- | | --------------------------- | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Manitoba First | | | | | | | | | | Dawson Trail | | Bob Lagassé 4,548 - 55.4% | | Echo Asher 1,783 - 21.7% | | Robert Rivard 1,874 - 22.8% | | | | | | Bob Lagassé | | Lac du Bonnet | | Wayne Ewasko 6,170 - 66.1% | | Sidney Klassen 1,793 - 19.2% | | Terry Hayward 1,373 - 14.7% | | | | | | Wayne Ewasko | | La Verendrye | | Dennis Smook 5,305 - 72.8% | | Erin McGee 1,052 - 14.4% | | Lorena Mitchell 929 - 12.8% | | | | | | Dennis Smook | | Steinbach | | Kelvin Goertzen 6,237 - 81.7% | | Rob Jessup 614 - 8.0% | | LeAmber Kensley 369 - 4.8% | | Janine Gibson 417 - 5.5% | | | | Kelvin Goertzen | | Red River North | | Jeff Wharton 5,566 - 58.0% | | Chris Pullen 2,387 - 24.9% | | Noel Ngo 732 - 7.6% | | Graham Hnatiuk 739 - 7.7% | | Jocelyn Burzuik 173 - 1.8% | | Ron Schuler St. Paul | | Selkirk | | Alan Lagimodiere 4,736 - 51.4% | | Mitch Obach 3,319 - 35.8% | | Philip Olcen 480 - 5.2% | | Tony Hill 713 - 7.7% | | | | Alan Lagimodiere |

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ------------------------- | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other | | | | | | | | | | Burrows | | Jasmine Brar 1,680 - 26.2% | | Diljeet Brar 2,536 - 39.6% | | Sarbjit Singh Gill 1,170 - 18.3% | | | | Edda Pangilinan (MB Fwd.) 1,020 - 15.9% | | Cindy Lamoureux‡ | | Kildonan-River East | | Cathy Cox 5,514 - 51.1% | | Elliot Macdonald 3,673 - 34.0% | | Kathryn Braun 1,602 - 14.8% | | | | | | Nic CurryKildonan | | Merged District | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Cathy CoxRiver East | | | | | | | | | | | | | | McPhillips | | Shannon Martin 3,307 - 38.3% | | Greg McFarlane 3,202 - 37.1% | | John Cacayuran 1,476 - 17.1% | | Jason Smith 406 - 4.7% | | Dave Wheeler (MF) 237 - 2.7% | | New Riding | | Point Douglas | | Michelle Redmond 757 - 15.7% | | Bernadette Smith 3,002 - 62.1% | | Richard Sanderson 565 - 11.7% | | Jenn Kess 398 - 8.2% | | Fagie Fainman (CPC-M) 44 - 1.4% Michael Wenuik (MB Fwd.) 66 - 0.9% | | Bernadette Smith | | St. Johns | | Ray Larkin 1,665 - 24.2% | | Nahanni Fontaine 3,526 - 51.2% | | Eddie Calisto-Tavares 1,092 - 15.9% | | Joshua McNeil 601 - 8.7% | | | | Nahanni Fontaine | | The Maples | | Aman Sandhu 1,824 - 25.9% | | Mintu Sandhu 2,744 - 39.0% | | Amandeep Brar 2,070 - 29.4% | | Kiran Gill 405 - 5.8% | | | | Mohinder Saran | | Tyndall Park | | Daljit Kainth 991 - 12.5% | | Ted Marcelino 2,447 - 30.9% | | Cindy Lamoureux 4,293 - 54.3% | | Fleur Mann 154 - 1.9% | | Frank Komarniski (CPC-M) 22 - 0.3% | | Ted Marcelino |

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ----- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | ----------------------------- | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ------------------ | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other | | | | | | | | | | Concordia | | Andrew Frank 2,290 - 31.9% | | Matt Wiebe 4,284 - 59.7% | | Maria Albo 605 - 8.4% | | | | | | Matt Wiebe | | Elmwood | | Mayra Dubon 2,533 - 31.9% | | Jim Maloway 3,862 - 48.6% | | Regan Wolfrom 739 - 9.3% | | Nicolas Geddert 763 - 9.6% | | German Lombana (CPC-M) 45 - 0.6% | | Jim Maloway | | Radisson | | James Teitsma 4,523 - 47.0% | | Raj Sandhu 3,534 - 36.7% | | Tanya Hansen Pratt 997 - 10.4% | | Carlianne Runions 576 - 6.0% | | | | James Teitsma | | Rossmere | | Andrew Micklefield 4,362 - 47.0% | | Andy Regier 3,608 - 38.8% | | Isaiah Oyeleru 707 - 7.6% | | Amanda Bazan 613 - 6.6% | | | | Andrew Micklefield | | St. Boniface | | Megan Hoskins 1,889 - 19.2% | | Laurissa Sims 2,939 - 29.9% | | Dougald Lamont 4,077 - 41.5% | | Jaclyn Jeanson 840 - 8.6% | | Simone Fortier (MB Fwd.) 76 - 0.8% | | Dougald Lamont | | Transcona | | Blair Yakimoski 3,914 - 45.1% | | Nello Altomare 4,029 - 46.4% | | Dylan Bekkering 716 - 8.4% | | | | | | Blair Yakimoski |

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----- | --------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ------------------------------ | | -------------------------------- | | ----------------------- | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Manitoba First | | | | | | | | | | Assiniboia | | Scott Johnston 4,102 - 44.2% | | Joe McKellep 3,303 - 35.6% | | Jeff Anderson 1,224 - 13.4% | | John Delaat 631 - 6.8% | | | | Steven Fletcher | | Roblin | | Myrna Driedger 6,075 - 55.7% | | Sophie Brandt-Murenzi 1,886 - 17.3% | | Michael Bazak 1,728 - 15.9% | | Kevin Nichols 1,209 - 11.1% | | | | Myrna Driedger Charleswood | | Kirkfield Park | | Scott Fielding 5,435 - 50.3% | | Kurt Morton 2,767 - 25.6% | | Ernie Nathaniel 1,695 - 15.7% | | Dennis Bayomi 901 - 8.3% | | | | Scott Fielding | | St. James | | Michelle Richard 2,767 - 32.4% | | Adrien Sala 4,009 - 46.9% | | Bernd Hohne 965 - 11.3% | | Jeff Buhse 805 - 9.4% | | | | Scott Johnston‡ | | Tuxedo | | Heather Stefanson 4,587 - 47.7% | | Carla Compton 1,919 - 20.0% | | Marc Brandson 2,225 - 23.1% | | Kristin Lauhn-Jensen 822 - 8.6% | | Abby Al-Sahi 60 - 0.6% | | Heather Stefanson |

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | -------------------------------- | ----- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | --------------------------------------------------------------- | | ----------------------------- | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other | | | | | | | | | | Fort Garry | | Nancy Cooke 2,998 - 31.8% | | Mark Wasyliw 3,994 - 42.4% | | Craig Larkins 1,716 - 18.2% | | Casey Fennessy 722 - 7.7% | | | | James Allum Fort Garry-Riverview | | Fort Rouge | | Edna Nabess 1,854 - 18.9% | | Wab Kinew 5,031 - 51.2% | | Cyndy Friesen 1,285 - 13.1% | | James Beddome 1,579 - 16.1% | | Michael McCracken (MF) 54 - 0.5%Bradley Hebert (MB Fwd.) 29 - 0.3% | | Wab Kinew | | Notre Dame | | Marsha Street 789 - 15.2% | | Malaya Marcelino 3,361 - 64.9% | | Donovan Martin 702 - 13.6% | | Martha Jo Willard 263 - 5.1% | | Andrew Taylor (CPC-M) 32 - 0.6% Margaret Sturby (MB Fwd.) 28 - 0.5% | | Andrew Swan Minto | | River Heights | | Susan Boulter 2,276 - 24.4% | | Jonathan Niemczak 1,346 - 14.4% | | Jon Gerrard 5,038 - 54.0% | | Nathan Zahn 661 - 7.1% | | | | Jon Gerrard | | Union Station | | Tara Fawcett 908 - 18.0% | | Uzoma Asagwara 2,635 - 52.2% | | Harold Davis 949 - 18.8% | | Andrea Shalay 473 - 9.4% | | Elsa Cubas (CPC-M) 48 - 1.0%James Yau (MB Fwd.) 32 - 0.6% | | Flor Marcelino Logan | | Wolseley | | Elizabeth Hildebrand 831 - 8.9% | | Lisa Naylor 4,253 - 45.6% | | Shandi Strong 770 - 8.3% | | David Nickarz 3,336 - 35.8% | | Eddie Hendrickson 129 - 1.4% | | Rob Altemeyer |

| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | | | | | | | | | | | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | -------------------------------- | | ------------------------------ | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other | | | | | | | | | | Fort Richmond | | Sarah Guillemard 3,241 - 42.2% | | George Wong 1,701 - 22.1% | | Tanjit Nagra 2,361 - 30.7% | | Cameron Proulx 379 - 4.9% | | | | Sarah Guillemard | | Fort Whyte | | Brian Pallister 5,609 - 57.2% | | Beatrice Bruske 1,755 - 17.9% | | Darrel Morin 1,729 - 17.6% | | Sara Campbell 665 - 6.8% | | Jason Holenski (MF) 54 - 0.6% | | Brian Pallister | | Lagimodière | | Andrew Smith 5,182 - 51.8% | | Billie Cross 2,789 - 27.9% | | Jake Sacher 1,481 - 14.8% | | Bob Krul 557 - 5.6% | | | | New Riding | | Riel | | Rochelle Squires 4,472 - 44.9% | | Mike Moyes 3,554 - 35.7% | | Neil Johnston 1,352 - 13.6% | | Roger Schellenberg 591 - 5.9% | | | | Rochelle Squires | | Seine River | | Janice Morley-Lecomte 4,363 - 45.1% | | Durdana Islam 2,513 - 26.0% | | James Bloomfield 2,147 - 22.2% | | Bryanne Lamoureux 658 - 6.8% | | | | Janice Morley-Lecomte | | Southdale | | Audrey Gordon 4,486 - 42.7% | | Karen Myshkowsky 3,955 - 37.6% | | Spencer Duncanson 1,422 - 13.5% | | Katherine Quinton 584 - 5.6% | | Robert Cairns (MB Fwd.) 70 - 0.7% | | Andrew Smith‡ | | St. Vital | | Colleen Mayer 3,211 - 35.0% | | Jamie Moses 4,081 - 44.4% | | Jeffrey Anderson 1,271 - 13.8% | | Elizabeth Dickson 499 - 5.4% | | David Sutherland (MF) 60 - 0.7% Baljeet Sharma 62 - 0.7% | | Colleen Mayer | | Waverley | | Jon Reyes 3,265 - 50.0% | | Dashi Zargani 1,865 - 28.6% | | Fiona Haftani 1,070 - 16.4% | | James Ducas 325 - 5.0% | | | | Jon Reyes_St. Norbert_ |

Polling firm Last dateof polling Link PC NDP Liberal Green Other
Forum Research September 9, 2019 [p 1] 43 29 17 10 1
Research Co. September 9, 2019 [p 2] 44 31 16 7 1
Mainstreet Research September 4, 2019 [p 3] 43.3 34.2 15.1 6.2 1.2
Research Co. August 29, 2019 [p 4] 46 30 14 8 1
Probe Research Inc August 24, 2019 [p 5] 40 29 18 10 3
Mainstreet Research August 19, 2019 [p 6] 42.5 34.7 11.9 9.6 1.4
Converso August 7, 2019 [p 7] 35.0 21.0 12.0 8.0 1.0
Probe Research Inc June 17, 2019 [p 8] 42 26 16 14 3
Probe Research Inc March 24, 2019 [p 9] 42 30 18 7
Mainstreet Research March 24, 2019 [p 10] 44.8 32.1 13.1 6.7 3.3
Mainstreet Research January 16, 2019 [p 11] 44.6 28.0 16.8 4.6 6.0
Probe Research Inc December 6, 2018 [p 12] 44 27 21 5 3
Mainstreet Research November 5, 2018 [p 13] 42.3 28.7 18.1 6.0 4.9
Probe Research Inc September 28, 2018 [p 14] 44 25 20 8
Mainstreet Research July 17, 2018 [p 15] 44.9 29.3 13.6 8.7 3.4
Probe Research Inc June 19, 2018 [p 16] 42 30 16 11
Mainstreet Research April 18, 2018 [p 17] 45.6 30.2 13.0 7.8
Probe Research Inc April 13, 2018 [p 18] 44 28 19 8
Mainstreet Research January 6, 2018 [p 19] 39.6 36.7 13.3 10.4
Probe Research Inc December 14, 2017 [p 20] 40 26 25 8
Probe Research Inc October 10, 2017 [p 21] 36 30 24 8
Probe Research Inc June 18, 2017 [p 22] 42 30 20 7
Mainstreet Research April 7, 2017 [p 23] 47 23 19 11
Probe Research Inc March 28, 2017 [p 24] 43 27 20 8
Probe Research Inc December 12, 2016 [p 25] 49 24 19 8
Probe Research Inc September 26, 2016 [p 26] 48 20 26 5
Probe Research Inc June 16, 2016 [p 27] 46 27 18 8
2016 election April 19, 2016 53.0 25.7 14.5 5.1 1.7
Polling firm Last dateof polling Link Other
PC NDP Liberal Green

Progressive Conservative

NDP

Liberal

Green

  1. ^ Party name changed from Manitoba Party in 2019.[14]

  2. ^ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election Archived February 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine. Retrieved June 24, 2012.

  3. ^ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)

  4. ^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)

  5. ^ a b Hatherly, Dana (August 12, 2019). "Pallister makes it official: Manitoba election is Sept. 10". CBC News.

  6. ^ Robertson, Dylan (June 25, 2019). "No hard feelings on early Manitoba election: poll". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved September 11, 2019.

  7. ^ "2018 Manitoba Electoral Divisions". Manitoba Electoral Divisions Boundaries Commission. Retrieved June 28, 2019.

  8. ^ "Proposed 2018 Electoral Division Names, Populations and Variations". Manitoba Electoral Divisions Boundaries Commission. Retrieved June 28, 2019.

  9. ^ "Wolseley MLA Rob Altemeyer won't run in next provincial election". CBC News. March 21, 2018.

  10. ^ "MLA Biographies - Living". Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. Government of Manitoba. Retrieved October 12, 2023.

  11. ^ "Manitoba Electoral Boundaries Commission - Final Report 2018". Manitoba Electoral Boundaries Commission. Retrieved December 14, 2018.

  12. ^ "Manitoba NDP's James Allum to finish term, won't seek re-election". The Province. December 14, 2018. Retrieved June 28, 2019.

  13. ^ a b "Manitoba Tory MLA Nic Curry won't seek re-election". CBC.ca. April 3, 2019. Retrieved September 11, 2019.

  14. ^ a b c d e "Results Summary - 42nd General Election" (PDF). electionsmanitoba.ca. Elections Manitoba. Retrieved February 1, 2023.

  15. ^ "Political Parties – 2019 Annual Report" (PDF). Elections Manitoba. Retrieved July 11, 2023.

  16. ^ "Manitoba MLA Steven Fletcher to run for People's Party of Canada". CBC News. May 22, 2019. Retrieved June 11, 2019.

  17. ^ "Manitoba NDP's James Allum to finish term, won't seek re-election". The Canadian Press via The Province. December 14, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.

  18. ^ "Winnipeg school trustee upset with province over funding to seek NDP nomination". The Canadian Press via CBC Manitoba. March 19, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2019.

  19. ^ Froese, Ian (June 3, 2019). "Former interim NDP leader Flor Marcelino won't run for re-election". CBC Manitoba. Retrieved June 7, 2019.

  20. ^ "Wolseley MLA Rob Altemeyer won't run in next provincial election". CBC Manitoba. March 21, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.

  21. ^ "News in Brief - Naylor wins Wolseley NDP nomination". Winnipeg Free Press. March 21, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.

  22. ^ "Longtime former Manitoba NDP cabinet minister will not seek re-election". CBC Manitoba. May 17, 2019. Retrieved July 16, 2019.

  23. ^ Schroeder, Lara (April 11, 2019). "MLA Judy Klassen sets sights on federal seat, saying 'proper representation' would save lives". CBC News. Retrieved September 2, 2019.

  24. ^ Lambert, Steve (July 22, 2019). "Ousted Manitoba politician to run as Independent, denies groping allegation". CBC Manitoba/The Canadian Press. Retrieved July 23, 2019.

Opinion poll sources

[edit]

  1. ^ "Manitoba Election".
  2. ^ "Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba". September 10, 2019.
  3. ^ Manitoba PC Government most likely outcomeMainstreet Research Archived October 10, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ^ "Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba". August 30, 2019.
  5. ^ "Manitoba Progressive Conservatives holding on to lead: poll - CBC News". CBC. August 31, 2019. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. ^ "Manitoba PCS Have the Lead, but Kinew is the Most Popular Leader".
  7. ^ "Pollster attributes inaccurate election survey to weight of northern Manitoba numbers - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".
  8. ^ Robertson, Dylan (June 25, 2019). "Jun 2019: No hard feelings on early Manitoba election: Poll". Winnipeg Free Press.
  9. ^ http://www.probe-research.com/documents/190402%20March%202019%20MB%20Omni%20Prov%20Party%20Standings.pdf [_dead link_‍]
  10. ^ "NDP Make Gains in Manitoba but PCS Still Lead".
  11. ^ "Pallister PCS Extend Lead over NDP".
  12. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 28, 2018. Retrieved December 28, 2018.{{[cite web](/wiki/Template:Cite%5Fweb "Template:Cite web")}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  13. ^ "Pallister PCS Maintain Healthy Lead over NDP as Liberals Gain Five".
  14. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.{{[cite web](/wiki/Template:Cite%5Fweb "Template:Cite web")}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  15. ^ "Pallister PCS Still Ahead in Manitoba".
  16. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.{{[cite web](/wiki/Template:Cite%5Fweb "Template:Cite web")}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  17. ^ "Pallister PCS Widen Lead over NDP".
  18. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 23, 2018. Retrieved April 23, 2018.{{[cite web](/wiki/Template:Cite%5Fweb "Template:Cite web")}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  19. ^ "New poll suggests Wab Kinew's NDP barely trails Brian Pallister's PCS - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".
  20. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 29, 2017. Retrieved December 28, 2017.{{[cite web](/wiki/Template:Cite%5Fweb "Template:Cite web")}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  21. ^ Lett, Dan (October 20, 2017). "Oct 2017: Support for Pallister gov't drops after 18 months of cuts, controversy". Winnipeg Free Press.
  22. ^ Lett, Dan (July 3, 2017). "Jul 2017: Tories' honeymoon already over". Winnipeg Free Press.
  23. ^ "47% Support Pallister PCS, but Low Grades for Healthcare; Carbon Tax".
  24. ^ Martin, Nick (April 9, 2017). "Apr 2017: Pallister government's popularity holding firm: Poll". Winnipeg Free Press.
  25. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{[cite web](/wiki/Template:Cite%5Fweb "Template:Cite web")}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  26. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{[cite web](/wiki/Template:Cite%5Fweb "Template:Cite web")}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  27. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{[cite web](/wiki/Template:Cite%5Fweb "Template:Cite web")}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)