Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (original) (raw)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Emissions, impacts and responses of the MENA region related to climate change

Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) refers to changes in the climate of the MENA region and the subsequent response, adaption and mitigation strategies of countries in the region. In 2018, the MENA region emitted 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and produced 8.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)[4] despite making up only 6% of the global population.[5] These emissions are mostly from the energy sector,[6] an integral component of many Middle Eastern and North African economies due to the extensive oil and natural gas reserves that are found within the region.[7][8] The region of Middle East is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves and sea level rise.

Sharp global temperature and sea level changes, shifting precipitation patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events are some of the main impacts of climate change as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).[9] The MENA region is especially vulnerable to such impacts due to its arid and semi-arid environment, and climatic challenges such as low rainfall, high temperatures and dry soil.[9][10] The climatic conditions that foster such challenges for MENA are projected by the IPCC to worsen throughout the 21st century.[9] If greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced, part of the MENA region risks becoming uninhabitable before the year 2100.[11][12][13]

Climate change is expected to put significant strain on already scarce water and agricultural resources within the MENA region, threatening the national security and political stability of all included countries.[14] Over 60 percent of the region's population live in very high water-stressed areas compared to the global average of 35 percent.[15] This has prompted some MENA countries to engage with the issue of climate change on an international level through environmental accords such as the Paris Agreement. Law and policy are also being established on a national level amongst MENA countries, with a focus on the development of renewable energies.[16]

Greenhouse gas emissions

[edit]

Green house gases being emitted from a chimney in a natural gas and oil field in Western Iran

As of January 2021, the UNICEF website groups the following set of 20 countries as belonging to the MENA region: 'Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, State of Palestine, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.'[17] Others include Israel as well.[18]

Greenhouse gas emissions produced by humans have been identified by the IPCC and the vast majority of climate scientists as the primary driver of climate change.[19][9] In the past three decades, the MENA region has more than tripled its greenhouse gas emissions and is currently emitting above the global average per person, with most of the top ten countries by carbon dioxide emissions per person being found in the Middle East.[20][4] These high emissions levels can be primarily attributed to Saudi Arabia and Iran, which are the 9th and 7th largest emitters of CO2 in the world, accounting for 40% of the region's emissions in 2018.[4] MENA countries heavily rely on fossil fuels for the generation of electricity, sourcing 97% of their energy from oil, natural gas, and coal (in Turkey).[21] Fossil fuel extraction, production and exportation is also a significant component of many economies within the MENA region, which possesses 60% of the world oil reserves and 45% of known natural gas reserves.[22] Reducing gas flaring would help.[23]

The failure of the Iranian subsidy reform plan during the 2010s left Iran as the world's largest subsidizer of fossil fuel in 2018.[24] But, unlike other countries which successfully removed subsidies by acting gradually, at the end of the decade, the government attempted to suddenly reduce gasoline subsidies, sparking riots.[25][26]

Impacts on the natural environment

[edit]

Temperature and weather changes

[edit]

The IPCC project average global temperatures to rise more than 1.5 degrees by the end of the 21st century.[9] MENA has been identified as a hotspot for future temperature changes due to its arid environmental conditions.[27] Whilst projected rates of warming during winter months are low, the region is expected to experience extreme temperature increases during summer.[28][29] Temperature rises are expected to be further amplified by reductions in rainfall and the associated depletion of soil moisture, limiting evaporative cooling.[30] As a result, heat extremes are expected to increase significantly in both frequency and intensity across the MENA region. According to studies published by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, the number of very hot days in the region has doubled between the 1970s and the time when the report was published (2016).[28] The study further projects that heatwaves will occur for 80 days of the year by 2050 and 118 days of the year by 2100.[28] Considering also increased sandstorms associated with longer drought periods, even a 2 degree temperature rise would make large parts of the region uninhabitable and force people to migrate.[28][31] Limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees, will significantly reduce risks for the region.[32]

The average maximum temperature during the hottest days of the past 30 years has been 43 degrees Celsius.[10] Dutch atmospheric chemist Johannes Lelieveld has projected that temperature maximum's could reach almost 50 degrees Celsius under current climate scenarios established by the IPCC.[30] Johannes Lelieveld further projects that average summer temperatures are expected to increase by up to 7% across the MENA region, and up to 10% in highly urbanised areas.[30] Extreme heat has been identified as a serious threat to human health, heightening an individual's susceptibility to exhaustion, heart attack and mortality.[33] Climate scientist Ali Ahmadalipour has projected heat-related mortality rates within the MENA region to be up to 20 times higher than current rates by the end of the century.[34]

A Sudanese farmer and his land. Drought and low rainfall has severely reduced the farmer's capacity to grow crops.

The Middle East and North Africa currently faces extreme water scarcity, with twelve out of the 17 most water stressed countries in the world deriving from the region.[35] The World Bank defines an area as being water stressed when per person water supplies fall below 1,700 cubic metres per year.[36] The water supply across the MENA region is averaged at 1274 cubic metres per capita, with some countries having access to only 50 cubic metres per person.[14] The agricultural sector within the MENA region is heavily dependent on irrigation systems due to its arid climate, with 85% of fresh water resources being utilised for agricultural purposes.[37][38] The IPCC indicate that the global distribution of rainfall is currently shifting in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, with increases in high latitude and mid-latitude wet region and decreases in equatorial dry regions such as the MENA.[9] These shifting precipitation patterns have already placed significant strain on MENA agriculture, with the frequency and severity of droughts rising significantly in the past decade.[39]

A recent NASA study suggests that the 1998–2012 drought in the Middle East was the worst to occur in the past 900 years.[40] Climate scientist Colin Kelley suggests that climate change was a significant contributor to the increased severity of the most recent drought in the region. He claims that such drought is 3 times more likely to occur due to human influence on climate and the drought have contributed to the beginning of the Syrian civil war.[41] Along with environmental impacts, increasing drought periods affect agricultural incomes, diminishes public health and weakens political stability in the MENA region.[42] Syria experienced its most severe drought on record from 2007 to 2010, where restricted water supply degraded agricultural resources and increased economic pressures.[41][43] American environmental scientist Peter Gleick also asserts that heightened social vulnerability and conflict over scare water supplies during this period catalysed the onset of the Syrian war.[43]

However, in 2017, a study led by sociologist and political ecologist Jan Selby has discredited these claims, reporting that there is no solid evidence that climate change is associated with the drought, the same about the impact of the drought on the conflict in Syria.[44] In 2019 Konstantin Ash and Nick Obradovich published research indicating that extreme drought was one of the leading factors in the creation of the Syrian war.[45]

Increasing water insecurity as a result of climate change is set to exacerbate existing food insecurities in the countries affected.[46] A study published by the World Food Programme has predicted a decline in crop yields by 30% in 2050 as a result of increasing droughts.[46] North African countries are highly vulnerable to reduced precipitation, as 88% of the region's crops possess no irrigation, relying on consistent rainfall.[47] The consequences of these reduced harvests strongly impact rural regions and communities that rely heavily on agriculture as a source of income.[48]

The coastline of Alexandria, Egypt's 2nd largest city

Alexandria is one of the most vulnerable cities to sea level rise.[11]

Across the MENA region, 60 million people inhabited coastal areas in 2010, a population that has been predicted by the World Bank to grow to 100 million by 2030.[14][49] As a result, the population of the MENA region is expected to be significantly impacted by sea level rise occurring due to climate change.[50] One consequence of rising sea levels is the loss of coastal wetlands, a natural resource responsible for ecosystem services such as storm buffering, water quality maintenance and carbon sequestration.[51] A study conducted by the World Bank predicts that the MENA region would lose over 90% of its coastal and freshwater wetlands if a one-metre sea level rise were to occur.[51]

In North Africa, Egypt is expected to be most affected by changes in sea level.[50] A third of the Nile Delta and large parts of Alexandria, Egypt's second-largest city, lie below the mean global sea level.[52] These areas have been drained for agricultural purposes and undergone urban development, where inundation and flooding is prevented by sea walls and dams.[52] However, failures occurring in these structures, storm surges and extreme weather events could lead to the inundation of these areas in the future if sea levels continue to rise.[52] Agricultural areas in Egypt are particularly at risk, where a one-metre rise in sea level would submerge 12–15% of the nation's total agricultural land.[53] This is estimated to displace 6.7 million people in Egypt and affect millions more who rely on agriculture for income.[53] A more moderate 50 cm increase in sea level has been projected to displace 2 million people and generate US$35 billion of damages.[54]

Mitigation and adaptation

[edit]

The severe impacts of climate change on the region, made climate change mitigation and adaptation an important issue in it. Regional cooperation is considered as one of the main conditions for effective mitigation and adaptation.[55][56]

Mohammed VI of Morocco speaking at the COP22 climate summit held in Marrakech

The MENA region possesses high potential for developing renewable energy technologies due to the high levels of wind and sunshine that are associated with its climate.[57] The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has identified over half of all land in GCC states as being suitable for the deployment of solar and wind technologies.[58] IRENA has also identified North African countries as having greater potential for wind and solar energy generation than all other regions of the continent.[59] Sourcing energy from renewable technologies instead of fossil fuels could significantly reduce energy related GHG emissions, which presently account for 85% of total emissions within the MENA region.[60][61] Renewable energy generation also involves significantly less water usage than processes associated with fossil fuel extraction and its conversion into usable energy, possessing the potential to improve water quality and availability within the region.[62][63] Renewable energy presently accounts for 1% of the total primary energy supply across the MENA region.[64]

At the 2016 UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakech, Morocco (COP22), Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen, Lebanon and the State of Palestine, along with 43 other countries, committed to deriving all energy from renewable resources by 2050.[65][66]

Ouarzazate Solar Power Station

[edit]

Ouarzazate Solar Power Station, Morocco

The Ouarzazate Solar Power Station is a solar power complex located in the Drâa-Tafilalet region of Morocco, and is currently the largest concentrated solar power plant in the world.[67] The complex consists of four separate power plants that utilise concentrated solar power and photovoltaic solar technology.[67] The project, costing US$2.67 billion, is expected to provide 1.1 million Moroccans with clean energy and reduce the country's carbon emissions by 700,000 tonnes every year.[68] The total energy capacity of the solar plant is expected to reach 2000 Megawatts by the end of 2020.[69]

Policies and legislation

[edit]

Countries which have not ratified the Paris Agreement shown in yellow

Eleven countries from the MENA region attended the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC where countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, an agreement with the United Nations concerning greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. As of 2021[update] Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen are the only countries in the world which have not ratified the agreement.[70] Morocco has set its nationally determined contribution to a 17%-42% reduction in emissions and has set a target of having 52% of renewable energy in its total installed electricity production capacity by 2050.[71] The share of renewable energy reached 28% in 2018 and is currently recognised by the United Nations as being on track to achieving its renewable energy targets.[72] The UAE, despite ratifying the agreement, have set no reduction in emissions in their nationally determined contribution. The United Nations have identified their NDC target as "critically insufficient".[73]

MENA Climate Action Plan

[edit]

In 2016 the World Bank put forth the MENA Climate Action Plan, a series of financial commitments centred around the redistribution of finance to the MENA region.[74] The World Bank deemed the plan's core focus to be ensuring food and water security, increasing resilience to climate change impacts and improving investment in renewable energy source.[74] One of the Action Plan's major commitments was to allocate 18-30% of MENA finance towards climate related initiatives, which currently stands a $1.5 billion annually. The World Bank have also outlined a significant increase in funding directed towards adaptation initiatives such as water conservation and recycling, introduction of desalination facilities and investment into carbon sequestration technologies.[74]

Egypt's Nile Delta is impacted by saltwater intrusion caused by sea level rise, leading to major implications for the country.[78] Agriculture and food security in Egypt will be disrupted by climate change due to increased drought, higher temperatures, extreme weather events, plant diseases and pests, with major infrastructure changes required to adapt.[79] Water security in Egypt will also be disrupted.[80][81]

Lake Urmia has shrunk due to reduced inflow in recent decades. This is attributable to climate change, and contributes to water scarcity in Iran.[82]

Iran is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Iran contributes to about 1.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and is ranked 8th in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) world wide and is ranked first in the MENA region due to its reliance on oil and natural gas. Climate change has led to reduced precipitation as well as increased temperatures, with Iran holding the hottest temperature recorded in Asia.[83]

The country is facing water shortages with around 35% of Iranians experiencing water scarcity. These issues are exacerbated by rapid urbanization which has led to worsened air quality and heat islands.[84] Iran is one of only three countries not to ratify the Paris Agreement.[85][note 1]

Iran's regional climates vary from the hot, arid deserts in the south and east to cooler, milder conditions along the Caspian Sea in the north, and temperate climates in the western-south Zagros Basin and southern coastal areas. This diversity contributes to a range of natural hazards, including floods, landslides, and droughts.[87]

Geography of Iraq
Continent Asia
Region Middle East
Coordinates 33 00 N, 44 00 E
Area Ranked 58
• Total 438,317 km2 (169,235 sq mi)
Coastline 58 km (36 mi)
Borders Turkey to the north, Iran to the east, the Persian Gulf and Kuwait to the southeast, Saudi Arabia to the south, Jordan to the southwest, and Syria to the west.
Highest point Cheekha Dar3,611 m (11,847 ft)
Lowest point Persian Gulf0 m (0.0 ft)
Longest river Euphrates
Largest lake Lake Tharthar
Natural resources Petroleum, sulfur, phosphate, and natural gas.[88]

In Iraq, climate change has led to environmental impacts such as increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, land degradation, and water scarcity.[89] Climate change poses numerous risks to human health, livelihoods, political stability, and the sustainable development of the nation.[89] The combination of ecological factors, conflict, weak governance, and an impeded capacity to mitigate climate change, has made Iraq uniquely at risk to the negative effects of climate change, with the UN ranking them the 5th most vulnerable country to climate change.[90] Rising temperatures, intensified droughts, declining precipitation, desertification, salinization, and the increasing prevalence of dust storms are challenges Iraq faces due in to the negative impacts of climate change. National and regional political instability and conflict have made it difficult to mitigate the effects of climate change, address transnational water management, and develop sustainably.[89] Climate change has negatively impacted Iraq's population through loss of economic opportunity, food insecurity, water scarcity, and displacement.

Water-related challenges are at the forefront of Iraq's environmental problems. Models predict that precipitation will decrease by 9% and mean annual temperatures will increase by 2°C by 2050.[91] The flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which provide 98% of Iraq's surface water, has decreased by 30-40% in the past 40 years.[92] The water resources of these two rivers are also shared with neighboring countries. Iraq's water supplies have significantly decreased over time due to dam construction from upstream nations.[93]

In 2019 Iraq contributed 0.5% to global carbon emissions.[94] Iraq's energy sector and fugitive emissions account for three-fourths of the nation's emissions.[94] Specifically, Iraq's oil and gas sectors produced 9% of global methane emissions in 2019, a portion of which is from gas flares.[89] The waste, industrial, and agriculture sectors are the other sectors contributing to Iraq's greenhouse gas emissions.

Iraq produced an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), which is a set of policies and goals for how Iraq can address climate change. Iraq wants to reduce emissions by 15% by 2035, with a specific focus on lowering their methane emissions.[95] Iraq ratified the Paris Treaty in 2021 and committed to specific actions to reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, which are coordinated by a newly established inter-ministerial national task force on methane emissions.[96]

[[icon]](/wiki/File:Wiki%5Fletter%5Fw%5Fcropped.svg) This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (May 2020)

According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection of Israel: "While Israel is a relatively small contributor to climate change due to its size and population, it is sensitive to the potential impacts of the phenomenon, due to its location. Thus, it is making an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously doing whatever possible to reduce the expected damage that will result if climate change is not halted."[97]

The impacts of climate change are already felt in Israel. The temperature rose by 1.4 degrees between 1950 and 2017. The number of hot days increased and the number of cold days decreased.[_clarification needed_] Precipitation rates have fallen. The trends are projected to continue. By the year 2050, in the coastal area the number of days with maximal temperature above 30 degrees, per year, is projected to increase by 20 in the scenario with climate change mitigation and by 40 in "business as usual" scenario.[98]

Israel ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016. The country is part of 3 initiatives on mitigation and adaptation and 16 other actions taken by non-governmental organisations.[99]

According to Israel's Intended nationally determined contribution the main mitigation target is to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions to 8.8 tCO2e by 2025 and to 7.7 tCO2e by 2030. Total emissions should be 81.65 MtCO2e in 2030. In the business as usual scenario the emissions would be 105.5 MtCO2e by 2030 or 10.0 tCO2e per capita. To reach it, the government of Israel wants to reduce the consumption of electricity by 17% relative to the business as usual scenario, produce 17% of electricity from renewables and shift 20% of transportation from cars to public transport by 2030.[100]In an effort to comply with GHG emission reductions, Israel formed a committee with the goal of evaluating the country's potential to reduce emissions by the year 2030. Their findings have confirmed that Israel's power sector generates approximately half of the country's total GHG emissions. The second-largest offender is the transport sector, which produces approximately 19% of total emissions.[101]

Jordan is mostly desert.

Climate change has a broad range of impacts in Jordan, including the already scarce water resources. The temperature increases adversely affect an already warmer and arid climate, and are accompanied by droughts, extreme temperatures, landslides and floods.[102] Water resources in Jordan are scarce. Besides the rapid population growth, the impacts of climate change are likely to further exacerbate the problem. Temperatures will increase and the total annual precipitation is likely to decrease, however with a fair share of uncertainty. Hence, existing and new activities with the objective to minimize the gap between water supply and demand contribute to adapt Jordan to tomorrow's climate. This might be accompanied by activities improving Jordan's capacity to monitor and project meteorological and hydrological data and assess its own vulnerability to climate change.

Jordan has signed and ratified the Paris Treaty. [103] It has updated its first Nationally Determined Contributions in 2021.[104]

Climate change is expected to significantly impact Morocco on multiple dimensions, similar to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. As a coastal country with hot and arid climates, environmental impacts from climate change are likely to be wide and varied. Analysis of these environmental changes on the economy of Morocco are expected to create challenges at all levels of the economy. The main effects will be felt in the agricultural systems and fisheries which employ half of the population, and account for 14% of GDP. In addition, because 60% of the population and most of the industrial activity are on the coast, sea level rise is a major threat to key economic forces. Morocco’s average temperatures have increased by 0.2 °C per decade since the 1960s.[105] Morocco is particularly susceptible to heat waves, droughts and floods.[105][106]

Morocco ratified the Paris Agreement in 2015. Its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aimed at reducing its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 17% by 2030 compared to business-as-usual (BAU), with the possibility of a reduction of 32% conditional on receiving international support.[105] In June 2021, Morocco submitted an updated NDC with more ambitious targets: reduce GHGs by 18.3% by 2030 compared to BAU, with a reduction of 45.5% conditional on receiving international support.[107][108] Morocco’s contribution to global GHGs is very small (about 0.18%) and majority of GHGs come from the energy sector.[107] As of the 2023 Climate Change Performance Index, Morocco was ranked seventh in preparedness for climate change.[109]

A dried body of water in Agadir. Climate change will increase the frequency of drought in Morocco.

Drought conditions near Khartoum

In Sudan, climate change has caused an increase in temperatures, a decline in rainfall and driven desertification.[113] Climate change poses significant challenges for rainfed agriculture and therefore the entire economy.[114] Analysis of weather patterns suggest drought conditions and other extreme weather increased in Sudan during the 20th century.[115] The relationship between climate change, water conflict and the war in Sudan has also been a topic of academic debate.[116]

Blue Nile state has experienced significant impacts from climate change, being one of Sudan's fastest-warming regions. Since the 1970s, temperatures have risen by 1 °C (1.8 °F) each year. Moreover, there has been a 30 years decline in rainfall, which is becoming more irregular. Groundwater depletion has been observed Wad el-Mahi. Seasonal floods from the Blue Nile river and other streams have also worsened environmental conditions. Environmental degradation has been exacerbated by the excessive cutting of trees for charcoal production and improper handling of liquid and solid waste.[117]

Tunisia is located in Northern Africa and is bordered by the Mediterranean Sea, Algeria, and Libya. Due to its geographical location, the country is divided into three regions: the Mediterranean region in the Northeast, the arid steppe region in the center, and a desert region in the South.[118] When looking at the impacts of climate change, each region faces its own category of climate threats, with sea level rise jeopardizing the water quality of coastal aquifers in the Northeast and the center and Eastern regions of the country affected by variable precipitation, rising temperatures and increased extreme weather events such as floods.[119]

Tunisia map of Köppen climate classification

Tunisia has recognized the urgent need to address climate change and is involved in international climate action. In 2016, Tunisia signed and ratified the Paris Agreement, committing to global efforts to limit global warming to well below 2 °C.[120] In 2021, it submitted and revised an Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which has set an emissions reduction target of 45% below 2010 levels, by 2030.[121] Through commitments like these Tunisia not only commits to solving its own diverse climate issues but also commits to decreasing emissions on a global scale.

United Arab Emirates

[edit]

  1. ^ Libya and Yemen are the only other countries which have not ratified the Paris Agreement.[86]

  2. ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.

  3. ^ Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...

  4. ^ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.

  5. ^ a b c "CO2 Emissions". Global Carbon Atlas. Archived from the original on Oct 11, 2020. Retrieved 2020-04-10.

  6. ^ "Population, total – Middle East & North Africa, World". World Bank Open Data. Retrieved 2020-04-11.

  7. ^ Abbass, Rana Alaa; Kumar, Prashant; El-Gendy, Ahmed (February 2018). "An overview of monitoring and reduction strategies for health and climate change related emissions in the Middle East and North Africa region" (PDF). Atmospheric Environment. 175: 33–43. Bibcode:2018AtmEn.175...33A. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.11.061. ISSN 1352-2310. Archived (PDF) from the original on Jun 14, 2021 – via Surrey Research Insight Open Access.

  8. ^ Al-mulali, Usama (2011-10-01). "Oil consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in MENA countries". Energy. 36 (10): 6165–6171. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.048. ISSN 0360-5442.

  9. ^ Tagliapietra, Simone (2019-11-01). "The impact of the global energy transition on MENA oil and gas producers". Energy Strategy Reviews. 26: 100397. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2019.100397. ISSN 2211-467X.

  10. ^ a b c d e f IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

  11. ^ a b El-Fadel, M.; Bou-Zeid, E. (2003). "Climate change and water resources in the Middle East: vulnerability, socio-economic impacts and adaptation". Climate Change in the Mediterranean. doi:10.4337/9781781950258.00015. hdl:10535/6396. ISBN 9781781950258.

  12. ^ a b Broom, Douglas (5 April 2019). "How the Middle East is suffering on the front lines of climate change". World Economic Forum. Retrieved 4 February 2020.

  13. ^ Gornall, Jonathan (24 April 2019). "With climate change, life in the Gulf could become impossible". Euroactive. Retrieved 4 February 2020.

  14. ^ Pal, Jeremy S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. (2015-10-26). "Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability". Nature Climate Change. 6 (2): 197–200. doi:10.1038/nclimate2833. ISSN 1758-678X.

  15. ^ a b c Waha, Katharina; Krummenauer, Linda; Adams, Sophie; Aich, Valentin; Baarsch, Florent; Coumou, Dim; Fader, Marianela; Hoff, Holger; Jobbins, Guy; Marcus, Rachel; Mengel, Matthias (2017-04-12). "Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups" (PDF). Regional Environmental Change. 17 (6): 1623–1638. Bibcode:2017REnvC..17.1623W. doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2. hdl:1871.1/15a62c49-fde8-4a54-95ea-dc32eb176cf4. ISSN 1436-3798. S2CID 134523218. Archived from the original on 2022-04-12.

  16. ^ Giovanis, Eleftherios; Ozdamar, Oznur (2022-06-13). "The impact of climate change on budget balances and debt in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region". Climatic Change. 172 (3): 34. Bibcode:2022ClCh..172...34G. doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03388-x. ISSN 1573-1480. PMC 9191535. PMID 35729894.

  17. ^ Brauch, Hans Günter (2012), "Policy Responses to Climate Change in the Mediterranean and MENA Region during the Anthropocene", Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict, Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol. 8, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 719–794, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-28626-1_37, ISBN 978-3-642-28625-4

  18. ^ "Middle East and North Africa". unicef.org. UNICEF. Archived from the original on 27 November 2020. Retrieved 16 January 2021.

  19. ^ Nuno Santos & Iride Ceccacci (2015). "Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia: Key trends in the agrifood sector" (PDF). fao.org. FAO. Retrieved 16 January 2021.

  20. ^ Cook, John; Oreskes, Naomi; Doran, Peter T; Anderegg, William R L; Verheggen, Bart; Maibach, Ed W; Carlton, J Stuart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Skuce, Andrew G; Green, Sarah A; Nuccitelli, Dana (2016-04-01). "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming". Environmental Research Letters. 11 (4): 048002. Bibcode:2016ERL....11d8002C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002. hdl:1983/34949783-dac1-4ce7-ad95-5dc0798930a6. ISSN 1748-9326.

  21. ^ Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries : 2019 report. Publications Office of the European Union. 2019-09-26. ISBN 9789276111009. Retrieved 2020-05-20.

  22. ^ menara. "The MENA Region in the Global Energy Markets". Menara Project. Archived from the original on 2018-11-16. Retrieved 2020-04-24.

  23. ^ Bridle, Richard, L. Kitson, and Petre Wooders. "Fossil-fuel subsidies: A barrier to renewable energy in five Middle East and North African countries." GSI Report (2014): 8-9.

  24. ^ Ghadaksaz, Hesam; Saboohi, Yadollah (2020-11-01). "Energy supply transformation pathways in Iran to reduce GHG emissions in line with the Paris Agreement". Energy Strategy Reviews. 32: 100541. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2020.100541. ISSN 2211-467X.

  25. ^ "Iran: Largest Fuel Subsidizer in 2018". Financial Tribune. July 16, 2019.

  26. ^ "AP Explains: Iran gas price protests quickly turn violent". AP NEWS. 2019-11-18. Retrieved 2020-05-11.

  27. ^ "How Reforming Fossil Fuel Subsidies Can Go Wrong: A lesson from Ecuador". IISD. Retrieved 2020-05-11.

  28. ^ Planton, Serge; Driouech, Fatima; Rhaz, Khalid EL; Lionello, Piero (2016), "Sub-chapter 1.2.2. The climate of the Mediterranean regions in the future climate projections", The Mediterranean region under climate change, IRD Éditions, pp. 83–91, doi:10.4000/books.irdeditions.23085, ISBN 978-2-7099-2219-7

  29. ^ a b c d Lelieveld, J.; Proestos, Y.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Tanarhte, M.; Tyrlis, E.; Zittis, G. (2016-04-23). "Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century". Climatic Change. 137 (1–2): 245–260. Bibcode:2016ClCh..137..245L. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6. ISSN 0165-0009.

  30. ^ Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Montesarchio, Myriam (March 2018). "Climate change projections for the Middle East–North Africa domain with COSMO-CLM at different spatial resolutions". Advances in Climate Change Research. 9 (1): 66–80. Bibcode:2018ACCR....9...66B. doi:10.1016/j.accre.2018.01.004. ISSN 1674-9278.

  31. ^ a b c Lelieveld, J.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Kostopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Pozzer, A.; Tanarhte, M.; Tyrlis, E. (2013-03-24). "Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century". Regional Environmental Change. 14 (5): 1937–1949. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0444-4. ISSN 1436-3798.

  32. ^ "Climate-exodus expected in the Middle East and North Africa". MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT. the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia. Retrieved 7 December 2023.

  33. ^ Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C (PDF). Berlin: Brot für die Welt Evangelisches Werk für Diakonie und Entwicklung, World Council of Churches, ACT Alliance Ecumenical Center, The Lutheran World Federation Ecumenical Center. November 2018. pp. 5, 8, 14, 15, 20. Retrieved 7 December 2023.

  34. ^ Nairn, John; Ostendorf, Bertram; Bi, Peng (2018-11-08). "Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index". International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 15 (11): 2494. doi:10.3390/ijerph15112494. ISSN 1660-4601. PMC 6265727. PMID 30413049.

  35. ^ Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid (2020-03-23). "Drought and heat-stress mortality risks: Assessing the role of climate change, socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and population growth". EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts: 21415. Bibcode:2020EGUGA..2221415A. doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21415. S2CID 234903239.

  36. ^ Hofste, Rutger Willem; Reig, Paul; Schleifer, Leah (2019-08-06). "17 Countries, Home to One-Quarter of the World's Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress". World Resources Institute. Retrieved 2020-04-24.

  37. ^ "International Decade for Action 'Water for Life' 2005-2015. Focus Areas: Water scarcity". www.un.org. Retrieved 2020-04-24.

  38. ^ Joffé, George (2016-07-02). "The Impending Water Crisis in the MENA Region". The International Spectator. 51 (3): 55–66. doi:10.1080/03932729.2016.1198069. ISSN 0393-2729. S2CID 157997328.

  39. ^ Sowers, Jeannie; Vengosh, Avner; Weinthal, Erika (2010-04-23). "Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa". Climatic Change. 104 (3–4): 599–627. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9835-4. hdl:10161/6460. ISSN 0165-0009. S2CID 37329318.

  40. ^ Hazell, P. B. R. (2001). Managing droughts in the low-rainfall areas of the Middle East and North Africa. International Food Policy Research Institute. OCLC 48709976.

  41. ^ Cook, Benjamin I.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Touchan, Ramzi; Meko, David M.; Cook, Edward R. (2016-03-04). "Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 121 (5): 2060–2074. Bibcode:2016JGRD..121.2060C. doi:10.1002/2015jd023929. ISSN 2169-897X. PMC 5956227. PMID 29780676.

  42. ^ a b Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A.; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan (2015-03-02). "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 112 (11): 3241–3246. Bibcode:2015PNAS..112.3241K. doi:10.1073/pnas.1421533112. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 4371967. PMID 25733898.

  43. ^ Haddadin, Munther J. (2001). "Water Scarcity Impacts and Potential Conflicts in the MENA Region". Water International. 26 (4): 460–470. Bibcode:2001WatIn..26..460H. doi:10.1080/02508060108686947. ISSN 0250-8060. S2CID 154814291.

  44. ^ a b Gleick, Peter H. (2014). "Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria". Weather, Climate, and Society. 6 (3): 331–340. doi:10.1175/wcas-d-13-00059.1. ISSN 1948-8327. S2CID 153715885.

  45. ^ Selby, Jan; Dahi, Omar S.; Fröhlich, Christiane; Hulme, Mike (2017-09-01). "Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited". Political Geography. 60: 232–244. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.05.007. ISSN 0962-6298.

  46. ^ Ash, Konstantin Ash; Obradovich, Nick (25 July 2019). "Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset". Journal of Conflict Resolution. 64 (1): 3–31. doi:10.1177/0022002719864140. S2CID 219975610.

  47. ^ a b Devereux, Stephen (December 2015). "Social Protection and Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa" (PDF). Institute of Development Studies. 2015 (80). Retrieved 15 May 2020.

  48. ^ Mougou, Raoudha; Mansour, Mohsen; Iglesias, Ana; Chebbi, Rim Zitouna; Battaglini, Antonella (2010-11-17). "Climate change and agricultural vulnerability: a case study of rain-fed wheat in Kairouan, Central Tunisia". Regional Environmental Change. 11 (S1): 137–142. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0179-4. ISSN 1436-3798. S2CID 153595504.

  49. ^ Verner, Dorte (2012). "Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries : a case for adaptation governance and leadership in building climate resilience" (PDF). Mean Development Report. 1 (1). Retrieved 15 May 2020.

  50. ^ "Climate change adaptation and natural disasters preparedness in the coastal cities of North Africa : phase 2 : adaptation and resilience action plan –alexandria area". World Bank. Retrieved 2023-01-05.

  51. ^ a b Dasgupta, Susmita; Laplante, Benoit; Meisner, Craig; Wheeler, David; Yan, Jianping (2008-10-10). "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis" (PDF). Climatic Change. 93 (3–4): 379–388. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5. hdl:10986/7174. ISSN 0165-0009. S2CID 154578495.

  52. ^ a b Blankespoor, Brian; Dasgupta, Susmita; Laplante, Benoit (2014-12-01). "Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands". Ambio. 43 (8): 996–1005. Bibcode:2014Ambio..43..996B. doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0500-4. ISSN 1654-7209. PMC 4235901. PMID 24659473.

  53. ^ a b c Baumert, Niklas; Kloos, Julia (2017), "Anticipating Emerging Risks and Vulnerabilities from Sea Level Rise Induced Preventive Resettlement in Greater Alexandria, Egypt", Environmental Change and Human Security in Africa and the Middle East, Springer International Publishing, pp. 133–157, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-45648-5_8, ISBN 978-3-319-45646-1

  54. ^ a b Sivakumar, Mannava V. K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Camacho, Jose (2013), "Climate Change in the West Asia and North Africa Region", Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa, Springer Netherlands, pp. 3–26, doi:10.1007/978-94-007-6751-5_1, ISBN 978-94-007-6750-8

  55. ^ El-Raey, M. (1997). "Vulnerability assessment of the coastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt, to the impacts of sea level rise". Ocean & Coastal Management. 37 (1): 29–40. Bibcode:1997OCM....37...29E. doi:10.1016/s0964-5691(97)00056-2. ISSN 0964-5691.

  56. ^ Shafi, Neeshad (April 2019). "Can fighting climate change bring the Arab world closer together?". World Economic Forum. Retrieved 1 June 2020.

  57. ^ Climate Change, Water Security, and National Security for Jordan, Palestine, and Israel (PDF). Ecopeace Middle East. January 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 September 2020. Retrieved 1 June 2020.

  58. ^ Kahia, Montassar; Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben; Lanouar, Charfeddine (2017). "Renewable and non-renewable energy use - economic growth nexus: The case of MENA Net Oil Importing Countries". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 71: 127–140. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.01.010. ISSN 1364-0321. S2CID 157146704.

  59. ^ Ferroukhi, R., Khalid, A., Hawila, D., Nagpal, D., El-Katiri, L., Fthenakis, V. and Al-Fara, A., 2016. Renewable Energy Market Analysis: The GCC Region. International Renewable Energy Agency: Abu Dhabi, UAE.

  60. ^ IRENA (2015), Africa 2030: Roadmap for a Renewable Energy Future. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. www.irena.org/remap

  61. ^ Sims, Ralph E.H.; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Gregory, Ken (2003-10-01). "Carbon emission and mitigation cost comparisons between fossil fuel, nuclear and renewable energy resources for electricity generation". Energy Policy. 31 (13): 1315–1326. doi:10.1016/s0301-4215(02)00192-1. ISSN 0301-4215.

  62. ^ Charfeddine, Lanouar; Kahia, Montassar (2019). "Impact of renewable energy consumption and financial development on CO2 emissions and economic growth in the MENA region: A panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) analysis". Renewable Energy. 139: 198–213. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2019.01.010. ISSN 0960-1481. S2CID 115691794.

  63. ^ El-Katiri, Laura (2014). A Roadmap for Renewable Energy in the Middle East and North Africa. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. doi:10.26889/9781907555909. ISBN 978-1-907555-90-9.

  64. ^ Kondash, Andrew J; Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Vengosh, Avner (2019-12-04). "Quantification of the water-use reduction associated with the transition from coal to natural gas in the US electricity sector". Environmental Research Letters. 14 (12): 124028. Bibcode:2019ERL....14l4028K. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d71. ISSN 1748-9326.

  65. ^ Poudineh, Rahmatallah; Sen, Anupama; Fattouh, Bassam (2018-08-01). "Advancing renewable energy in resource-rich economies of the MENA". Renewable Energy. 123: 135–149. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2018.02.015. ISSN 0960-1481. S2CID 115194162.

  66. ^ "Climate Vulnerable Forum Commit to Stronger Climate Action at COP22". Climate Vulnerable Forum. 2016-11-18. Archived from the original on 2018-07-13. Retrieved 2020-05-26.

  67. ^ "Marrakech High Level Meeting". Climate Vulnerable Forum. 2016-11-18. Archived from the original on 2020-09-23. Retrieved 2020-05-28.

  68. ^ a b Fares, Mohamed Soufiane Ben; Abderafi, Souad (2018). "Water consumption analysis of Moroccan concentrating solar power station". Solar Energy. 172: 146–151. Bibcode:2018SoEn..172..146F. doi:10.1016/j.solener.2018.06.003. ISSN 0038-092X. S2CID 126097241.

  69. ^ "Expansion of Morocco's Largest Solar Complex to Provide 1.1 Million Moroccans with Clean Energy". World Bank. Retrieved 2020-05-29.

  70. ^ "Morocco - Ouarzazate Solar Power Station Project II - ESIA Summary". African Development Bank - Building today, a better Africa tomorrow. 2019-06-05. Retrieved 2020-05-29.

  71. ^ "United Nations Treaty Collection". treaties.un.org. Retrieved 2020-11-24.

  72. ^ "Morocco". www.ndcs.undp.org. Retrieved 2020-04-24.

  73. ^ "Morocco | Climate Action Tracker". climateactiontracker.org. Retrieved 2020-04-24.

  74. ^ "Saudi Arabia | Climate Action Tracker". climateactiontracker.org. Retrieved 2020-04-24.

  75. ^ a b c "World Bank Steps Up Climate Funding in Arab World". World Bank. Retrieved 2020-04-06.

  76. ^ a b c Benzerga, Mohamed (2015-08-24). "Heatwaves are on the rise in Algeria due to climate change, says specialist". the Guardian. Archived from the original on 2015-09-06. Retrieved 2020-05-17.

  77. ^ Sahnoune, F.; Belhamel, M.; Zelmat, M.; Kerbachi, R. (2013-01-01). "Climate Change in Algeria: Vulnerability and Strategy of Mitigation and Adaptation". Energy Procedia. TerraGreen 13 International Conference 2013 – Advancements in Renewable Energy and Clean Environment. 36: 1286–1294. Bibcode:2013EnPro..36.1286S. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2013.07.145. ISSN 1876-6102.

  78. ^ "Algeria". Climate Change Performance Index. 2019-11-28. Archived from the original on 10 June 2020. Retrieved 2020-05-17.

  79. ^ "Egypt's Nile Delta falls prey to climate change". Al Arabiya English. 2010-01-28. Retrieved 2022-08-18.

  80. ^ Mahmoud, M. A. (2019), Negm, Abdelazim M. (ed.), "Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in Egypt", Conventional Water Resources and Agriculture in Egypt, The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, vol. 74, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 213–227, doi:10.1007/698_2017_48, ISBN 978-3-319-95065-5, retrieved 2022-08-18

  81. ^ Mostafa, Soha M.; Wahed, Osama; El-Nashar, Walaa Y.; El-Marsafawy, Samia M.; Zeleňáková, Martina; Abd-Elhamid, Hany F. (January 2021). "Potential Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Egypt". Water. 13 (12): 1715. doi:10.3390/w13121715. ISSN 2073-4441.

  82. ^ Omar, Mohie El Din Mohamed; Moussa, Ahmed Moustafa Ahmed; Hinkelmann, Reinhard (2021-03-01). "Impacts of climate change on water quantity, water salinity, food security, and socioeconomy in Egypt". Water Science and Engineering. 14 (1): 17–27. doi:10.1016/j.wse.2020.08.001. ISSN 1674-2370. S2CID 233854697.

  83. ^ Shadkam, Somayeh; Ludwig, Fulco; van Oel, Pieter; Kirmit, Çağla; Kabat, Pavel (2016-10-01). "Impacts of climate change and water resources development on the declining inflow into Iran's Urmia Lake". Journal of Great Lakes Research. 42 (5): 942–952. doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2016.07.033. ISSN 0380-1330.

  84. ^ AJLabs. "Mapping the hottest temperatures around the world". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2023-10-27.

  85. ^ "Climate profile: Iran". Atlantic Council. Retrieved 2023-10-20.

  86. ^ Anderson, Maia Golzar (September 22, 2023). "Bringing Iran to the climate action table".

  87. ^ "United Nations Treaty Collection". treaties.un.org. Retrieved 2023-11-16.

  88. ^ "Iran Climate Fact Sheet" (PDF). Climate Centre. 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2024.

  89. ^ "Natural Resources of Iraq". WorldAtlas. 2019-07-24. Retrieved 2024-04-29.

  90. ^ a b c d "Climate change is the biggest threat Iraq has ever faced, but there is hope to turn things around". unsdg.un.org. Retrieved 2023-11-11.

  91. ^ Wehrey, Frederic Wehrey (July 6, 2023). "Climate Change and Vulnerability in the Middle East". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

  92. ^ "Climate Risk Profile: Iraq". www.climatelinks.org. 2017-03-03. Retrieved 2023-11-15.

  93. ^ Hall, Natasha (2023-12-05). "Local to Global: Tensions Course through Iraq's Waterways". Center for Strategic and International Studies.

  94. ^ Bruneau, Charlotte; Al-sudani, Thaier (2021-10-14). "'Our whole life depends on water': Climate change, pollution and dams threaten Iraq's Marsh Arabs". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-12-03.

  95. ^ a b "Iraq Country Climate and Development Report". World Bank. Retrieved 2023-11-15.

  96. ^ "Iraq Includes Methane in its Nationally Determined Contributions, Citing Health and Development Benefits". www.ccacoalition.org. Retrieved 2023-11-07.

  97. ^ "As Iraq joins Paris Agreement, UN calls for further support to help the country adapt". iraq.un.org.

  98. ^ "Energy and Climate Change". Ministry of Environmental Protection. Retrieved 10 May 2020.

  99. ^ Ashekanazi, Shani (3 December 2019). "Climate change will hit Israel especially hard, study finds". Globes English. Retrieved 10 May 2020.

  100. ^ "Israel". Nazca. United Nations. Retrieved 3 February 2020.

  101. ^ "Israel's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)" (PDF). UNFCCC. The State of Israel. Retrieved 3 February 2020.

  102. ^ "Targeting Climate Change in Israel: Toward Paris and Beyond" (PDF). Israel Environment Bulletin (42). January 2016.

  103. ^ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2024). "Vulnerability and Governance in the Context of Climate Change in Jordan".

  104. ^ UNFCCC (2024). "Jordan".

  105. ^ UNFCCC (2021). "Updated Submissions of Jordan's First Nationally Determined Contribitions" (PDF).

  106. ^ a b c "CHAPTER 7: Climate Change and Development in Morocco", Morocco’s Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth, International Monetary Fund, 9 October 2023, ISBN 979-8-4002-2540-6, retrieved 2023-11-04

  107. ^ Philip, S.; Kew, S.; Vautard, R.; Vahlberg, M.; Singh, R.; Driouech, F.; Lguensat, R.; Barnes, C.; Otto, F. (2023-05-05). Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco & Algeria almost impossible without climate change (Report). doi:10.25561/103833. hdl:10044/1/103833.

  108. ^ a b "Morocco Submits Enhanced NDC, Raising Ambition to 45.5 Percent by 2030 |". ndcpartnership.org. Retrieved 2023-11-04.

  109. ^ "Nationally Determined Contribution - Updated". unfccc.int. 22 June 2021. Retrieved 2023-11-04.

  110. ^ "Ranking | Climate Change Performance Index". 2022-11-14. Retrieved 2023-11-04.

  111. ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.

  112. ^ Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...

  113. ^ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.

  114. ^ Alvi, Shamsul Haque (1994-08-01). "Climatic changes, desertification and the Republic of Sudan". GeoJournal. 33 (4): 393–399. doi:10.1007/BF00806422. ISSN 1572-9893. S2CID 189882209.

  115. ^ Siddig, Khalid; Stepanyan, Davit; Wiebelt, Manfred; Grethe, Harald; Zhu, Tingju (2020-03-01). "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature". Ecological Economics. 169: 106566. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106566. hdl:10568/101350. ISSN 0921-8009. S2CID 146321871.

  116. ^ Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Mansell, Martin G. (2000-04-01). "Climate impacts of environmental degradation in Sudan". GeoJournal. 50 (4): 311–327. doi:10.1023/A:1011071917001. ISSN 1572-9893. S2CID 153835620.

  117. ^ Selby, Jan; Hoffmann, Clemens (2014-11-01). "Beyond scarcity: Rethinking water, climate change and conflict in the Sudans". Global Environmental Change. 29: 360–370. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.01.008. hdl:11693/53618. ISSN 0959-3780. S2CID 26353802.

  118. ^ "Situation in the Blue Nile" (PDF). unicef.org.

  119. ^ Sarah Yerkes and Joy Arkeh, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2024). "What Tunisia's Municipalities Can Contribute to Climate Adaptation".

  120. ^ Benachir, Nouhaila (2023). "The Climate Change In TUNISIA". SSRN 4567019.

  121. ^ "Tunisia". United Nations Climate Change. Retrieved 2024-12-05.

  122. ^ "Tunisia | Climate Promise". climatepromise.undp.org. 2023-11-24. Retrieved 2024-12-05.

  123. ^ Turkes, Murat; Turp, M. Tufan; An, Nazan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent (2020), Harmancioglu, Nilgun B.; Altinbilek, Dogan (eds.), "Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation Climatology and Variability in Turkey", Water Resources of Turkey, World Water Resources, vol. 2, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 467–491, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-11729-0_14, ISBN 978-3-030-11729-0, S2CID 198403431, retrieved 2023-11-30

  124. ^ Erlat, Ecmel; Türkeş, Murat; Aydin-Kandemir, Fulya (2021-07-01). "Observed changes and trends in heatwave characteristics in Turkey since 1950". Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 145 (1): 137–157. Bibcode:2021ThApC.145..137E. doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03620-1. ISSN 1434-4483. S2CID 233313907.

  125. ^ Aksu, Hakan (2021). "Nonstationary analysis of the extreme temperatures in Turkey". Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans. 95: 101238. Bibcode:2021DyAtO..9501238A. doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101238.

  126. ^ Tridimas, Beatrice (2023-09-25). "Turkey's fishermen fight to save wetlands as water scarcity bites". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-11-27.

  127. ^ "'Climate change leading to extreme weather events in Türkiye'". Hürriyet Daily News. 2023-03-21. Retrieved 2023-11-27.