Timothy J. Kehoe (original) (raw)
El Mercado de la Merced, the largest public market in Mexico City.
In 2010, Tim Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini started working on a project based on the hypothesis that the inability, or unwillingness, of governments to limit their spending to their own ability to raise tax revenues has been the driving force behind the economic crises that have plagued Latin America since the 1970s. Since 2013, funding has been provided by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago, where Fernando Alvarez, Lars Hansen, and Thomas Sargent have had major roles in guiding the project. The University of Minnesota Press has published a physical book, A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017, edited by Kehoe and Nicolini. An online version is available with data appendices for doing the Kehoe-Nicolini-Sargent government budget accounting. The book has individual chapters that use a common conceptual framework to study the modern economic histories of eleven major Latin American countries written by local experts: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. In addition, there is forward written by François Velde, an introduction written by Alvarez, Hansen, and Sargent, a presentation of the budget accounting framework used in every country chapter by Kehoe, Nicolini, and Sargent, and a final chapter on the lessons learned from studying the economic histories of the set of countries side by side by Carlos Esquivel, Kehoe, and Nicolini. The BFI also has a website for the project.
Tim Kehoe received his B.A. in Economics and Mathematics from Providence College in 1975 and his Ph.D. from Yale University in 1979. He has taught at Wesleyan University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the University of Cambridge in England. Since 1987 Tim has been a Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Minnesota where he is currently a Distinguished McKnight University Professor. He is also an adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. His research and teaching focus on the theory and application of general equilibrium models. Tim has advised the Spanish government on the impact of joining the European Community in 1986, the Mexican government on the impact of joining NAFTA in 1994, and the Panamanian government on the impact of unilateral foreign trade and investment reforms in 1998. He is married to Jean O'Brien-Kehoe, a Distinguished McKnight University Professor and Regents Professor of History at the University of Minnesota.
Students on the 2024–2025 job market — both placed!
- Mauricio Barbosa-Alves (Department of Economics, University of Minnesota), University of Kentucky.
- Gabriel Devoto (Department of Economics, University of Minnesota), International Monetary Fund.
Recent Papers
Here are some papers from the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America Project:
- "A Framework for Studying the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017," with Juan Pablo Nicolini and Thomas J. Sargent.
- "Lessons from the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America," with Carlos Esquivel and Juan Pablo Nicolini.
- "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Bolivia, 1960–2017," with Carlos Gustavo Machicado and José Peres-Cajías.
Here are some other recent papers:
- "The Case for Globalization and the Dangers Ahead," Discussion at the 2017 Jackson Hole Conference.
- "Constructing Pure-Exchange Economies with Many Equilibria," with Pascal Gauthier and Erwan Quintin.
- "Default and Interest Rate Shocks: Renegotiation Matters," with Victor Almeida, Carlos Esquivel, and Juan Pablo Nicolini.
- "Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth," with Jose Asturias, Sewon Hur, and Kim J. Ruhl. (Zip file with all of the data and zip file with all of the programs for the model.)
- "Gambling for Redemption and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," with Juan Carlos Conesa. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States," with Kim J. Ruhl and Joseph B. Steinberg. (Zip file with programs and all of the data.)
- "The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms," with Jose Asturias, Sewon Hur, and Kim J. Ruhl.
- "Growth and Redistribution with Heterogeneous Attitudes toward Risk," with Aloisio Pessoa de Araujo and Juan Pablo Gama.
- "Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium," with Juan Carlos Conesa, Vegard M. Nygaard, and Gajendran Raveendranathan.
- "The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms," with Jose Asturias, Sewon Hur, and Kim J. Ruhl.
- "Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare," with Juan Carlos Conesa, Daniela Costa, Parisa Kamali, Vegard M. Nygaard, Gajendran Raveendranathan, Akshar Saxena. (Zip file with programs and all of the data.)
- "The Opportunity Costs of Entrepreneurs in International Trade," with Kim J. Ruhl and Pau S. Pujolàs.
- "Preemptive Austerity with Rollover Risk," with Juan Carlos Conesa.
- "Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges," with Pau S. Pujolàs and Jack Rossbach. (Zip file with all of the data.)
- "Risk Loving and Fat Tails in the Wealth Distribution," with Aloisio Pessoa de Araujo and Juan Pablo Gama.
- "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 1: A General Framework and Taking Off into Growth," with Daniela Costa, and Gjendran Raveendranathan. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 2: Catching Up to and Joining the Economic Leader," with Daniela Costa, and Gajendran Raveendranathan. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
Here are some papers related to the Great Depressions Project:
- "The Current Financial Crisis: What Should We Learn from the Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century?" with Gonzalo Fernández de Córdoba.
- "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s" with Raphael Bergoeing, Patrick J. Kehoe, and Raimundo Soto. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century" with Edward C. Prescott. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Is Switzerland in a Great Depression?" with Kim J. Ruhl. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Modeling Great Depressions: The Depression in Finland in the 1990s" with Juan Carlos Conesa and Kim J. Ruhl. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Policy-Driven Productivity in Chile and Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s" with Raphael Bergoeing, Patrick J. Kehoe, and Raimundo Soto.
- "Productivity, Taxes, and Hours Worked in Spain: 1970-2015" with Juan Carlos Conesa. (Zip file with all of the data.)
- "Recent Great Depressions: Aggregate Growth in New Zealand and Switzerland" with Kim J. Ruhl. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Using the General Equilibrium Growth Model to Study Great Depressions: A Reply to Temin" with Edward C. Prescott. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "What Can We Learn from the 1998-2002 Depression in Argentina?" (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
Here are some other papers:
- "Catch-up Growth Followed by Stagnation: Mexico, 1950-2010" with Felipe Meza. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Chronic Sovereign Debt Crises in the Eurozone, 2010-2012" with Cristina Arellano and Juan Carlos Conesa. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Demographics in Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Models: Overlapping Generations versus Infinitely Lived Consumers" with Claustre Bajona.
- "Does Openness Generate Growth? Reconciling the Experiences of Mexico and China," VoxEU, 19 November 2011, with Kim J. Ruhl. (Original paper, description of the data, and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "How Important is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?" with Kim J. Ruhl. (Zip file with all of the data.)
- "Is it Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone?" with Juan Carlos Conesa. (Zip file with all of the data.)
- "Real Exchange Rate Movements and the Relative Price of Nontraded Goods" with Caroline M. Betts. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data and MS Excel file with bilateral trade data.)
- "Tradability of Goods and Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations" with Caroline M. Betts.
- "Trade Liberalization, Growth, and Productivity" with Claustre Bajona, Mark J. Gibson, and Kim J. Ruhl.
- "Trade Theory and Trade Facts" with Raphael Bergoeing.
- "Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform" with Jack M. Rossbach and Kim J. Ruhl. (Zip file with all of the data.)
- "What Will Happen When Foreigners Stop Lending to the United States?" with Kim J. Ruhl and Joseph B. Steinberg. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
- "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?" with Kim J. Ruhl. (Description of the data and MS Excel file with all of the data.)
For more papers go here.
Archive of research papers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
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© 2000, 2023 by the Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. The construction of this web site was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants No. 96-18370, 00-96364, 05-20517, 09-62865. The views and opinions expressed in this page are strictly those of the page author. The contents of this page have not been reviewed or approved by the University of Minnesota. Comments to: tkehoe@umn.edu