Extinction risk from climate change - PubMed (original) (raw)
. 2004 Jan 8;427(6970):145-8.
doi: 10.1038/nature02121.
Alison Cameron, Rhys E Green, Michel Bakkenes, Linda J Beaumont, Yvonne C Collingham, Barend F N Erasmus, Marinez Ferreira De Siqueira, Alan Grainger, Lee Hannah, Lesley Hughes, Brian Huntley, Albert S Van Jaarsveld, Guy F Midgley, Lera Miles, Miguel A Ortega-Huerta, A Townsend Peterson, Oliver L Phillips, Stephen E Williams
Affiliations
- PMID: 14712274
- DOI: 10.1038/nature02121
Free article
Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D Thomas et al. Nature. 2004.
Free article
Abstract
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Comment in
- Ecology: clouded futures.
Pounds JA, Puschendorf R. Pounds JA, et al. Nature. 2004 Jan 8;427(6970):107-9. doi: 10.1038/427107a. Nature. 2004. PMID: 14712258 No abstract available. - Dangers of crying wolf over risk of extinctions.
Ladle RJ, Jepson P, Araújo MB, Whittaker RJ. Ladle RJ, et al. Nature. 2004 Apr 22;428(6985):799. doi: 10.1038/428799b. Nature. 2004. PMID: 15103349 No abstract available. - Biodiversity conservation: effects of changes in climate and land use.
Buckley LB, Roughgarden J. Buckley LB, et al. Nature. 2004 Jul 1;430(6995):2 p following 33; discussion following 33. doi: 10.1038/nature02717. Nature. 2004. PMID: 15233130 - Biodiversity conservation: uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk.
Thuiller W, Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Whittaker RJ, Brotons L, Lavorel S. Thuiller W, et al. Nature. 2004 Jul 1;430(6995):1 p following 33; discussion following 33. doi: 10.1038/nature02716. Nature. 2004. PMID: 15237465 - Biodiversity conservation: climate change and extinction risk.
Harte J, Ostling A, Green JL, Kinzig A. Harte J, et al. Nature. 2004 Jul 1;430(6995):3 p following 33; discussion following 33. doi: 10.1038/nature02718. Nature. 2004. PMID: 15237466 - Extinction-risk coverage is worth inaccuracies.
Hannah L, Phillips B. Hannah L, et al. Nature. 2004 Jul 8;430(6996):141. doi: 10.1038/430141a. Nature. 2004. PMID: 15241386 No abstract available.
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