Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case - PubMed (original) (raw)
Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case
H Nishiura et al. Euro Surveill. 2015.
Free article
Abstract
To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3–25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS.
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