Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact - PubMed (original) (raw)
. 2016 Nov 4;354(6312):aaf5239.
doi: 10.1126/science.aaf5239.
Affiliations
- PMID: 27811240
- DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf5239
Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact
Roberta Sinatra et al. Science. 2016.
Abstract
Despite the frequent use of numerous quantitative indicators to gauge the professional impact of a scientist, little is known about how scientific impact emerges and evolves in time. Here, we quantify the changes in impact and productivity throughout a career in science, finding that impact, as measured by influential publications, is distributed randomly within a scientist's sequence of publications. This random-impact rule allows us to formulate a stochastic model that uncouples the effects of productivity, individual ability, and luck and unveils the existence of universal patterns governing the emergence of scientific success. The model assigns a unique individual parameter Q to each scientist, which is stable during a career, and it accurately predicts the evolution of a scientist's impact, from the h-index to cumulative citations, and independent recognitions, such as prizes.
Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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