Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades - PubMed (original) (raw)

Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades

James P Kossin et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020.

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Abstract

Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982-2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade.

Keywords: climate; hurricane; intensity; trend; tropical cyclone.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1.

Comparison of complementary cumulative distribution functions of the global ADT-HURSAT hurricane intensity estimates between the early and latter halves of the 39-y period 1979–2017.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2.

Time series of fractional proportion of global major hurricane estimates to all hurricane estimates for the period 1979–2017. Each point, except the earliest, represents the data in a sequence of 3-y periods. The first data point is based on only 2 y (1979 and 1981) to avoid the years with no eastern hemisphere coverage. The linear Theil−Sen trend (black line) is significant at the 98% confidence level (Mann−Kendall P value = 0.02). The proportion increases by 25% in the 39-y period (about 6% per decade).

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3.

As in Fig. 2, but for individual ocean basins. The red, green, and blue curves shown arbitrarily in the western North Pacific panel are time series of annually averaged indices representing Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean multidecadal variability, respectively, and represent 11-y centered means that have been normalized and shifted for plotting purposes.

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