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ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z OBSERVATION FROM SAN ANDRES ISLAND WHICH REPORTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THUS...THE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. AN EXTENDED SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/08 KNOTS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.

THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...ALONG WITH NOGAPS AND THE UK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE MODELS...SHOW THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS IN A SHEARED...WEAKENED STATE AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS AN UNKNOWN. IN FACT...A BANDING FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE CENTER...NEAR 15N...AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THE FORECAST STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE. THE NHC TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UK MET OFFICE TRACK...AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY 48 HOURS AND MAY RE-INTENSIFY...WHICH IS WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS AND FOR THE SAN ANDRES ISLANDS WILL BE DISCONTINUED.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

GUINEY

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 13.0N 82.3W 30 KTS 12HR VT 30/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W 35 KTS 24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.4N 84.1W 25 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.0N 85.0W 25 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.0N 86.0W 30 KTS 72HR VT 01/1200Z 17.5N 87.5W 30 KTS

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