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ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999

THE CIRCULATION OF KATRINA IS BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND CONSEQUENTLY...HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST/SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND IN FACT... THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTERS. AS A COMPROMISE...I HAVE CHOSEN TO USE A CENTRAL POINT ALONG THE AXIS AS THE CENTER. USING THIS POSITION...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/07 KNOTS.

AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER...MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT. THE UKMET...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...NOW DISSIPATES KATRINA BY 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...MOVES IT INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY 24 HOURS...INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN 36 HOURS...WITH A 72 HOUR POINT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS CONTINGENT ON THE SYSTEM SURVIVING ITS TREK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ALTHOUGH CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE BY 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO RE-ORGANIZE. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASING HOSTILE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-LOW...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...LIFTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST CONTINUES A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEIR IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS MUCH LESS 72. GIVEN THE SYSTEMS LOCATION AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT A CENTER COULD RE-LOCATE/RE-FORM OUT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WE WILL HOLD ON TO IT FOR NOW.

THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE RAINBANDS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING ONSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES..ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

GUINEY

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.9N 85.8W 25 KTS 12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.5N 86.8W 25 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 31/1800Z 16.5N 87.9W 30 KTS 36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.0N 88.5W 25 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1800Z 20.0N 88.5W 25 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 88.0W 30 KTS

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