Tropical Storm RICK (original) (raw)

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ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

RICK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN A LARGE CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A RAGGED EYEWALL DEVELOPING IN THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES. BASED ON THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM TAFB.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AS THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND RICK TRAVERSES WATERS NEAR 30C. THE HWRF SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS AND THE GFDL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN BRINGING RICK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. USING A BLEND OF THESE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RICK REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WATERS COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/8 IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF A SHORTWAVE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...HWRF AND GFDL...REMAIN FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...UKMET AND NOGAPS...REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN...OR NONE AT ALL. OVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AT THESE LATER TIME PERIODS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.

THE 34-KT WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS MODIFIED BASED ON A 40-KT WIND OBSERVATION FROM SHIP A8BZ6 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 0600 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 12.5N 98.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 12.7N 99.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 13.3N 101.1W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.8N 103.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 105.6W 100 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W 100 KT FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

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