Hurricane RICK (original) (raw)
- Analyses & Forecasts
- ▾
- Data & Tools
- ▾
- Educational Resources
- ▾
- Archives
- ▾
- About
- ▾
- Search
Search For
NWS All NOAA - ▾
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO APPARENT EYE ON IR IMAGES YET...RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A QUITE DISTINCT EYE FEATURE. THIS NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION THAT THE EYE WILL PROBABLY SHOW UP CLEARLY ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE WITH A VERY STRONG AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NUMEROUS RAINBANDS. THE OUTFLOW IS OUTSTANDING IMPLYING THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON 5.0 AND 4.5 T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. MY PREDECESSORS HAVE DESCRIBED AT LENGTH THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF RICK...AND THAT REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE THAN AVERAGE FOR A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING... AND RICK IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 125 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED ONCE THE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY ERODED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES. THE RESULTING STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO A RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK ON A WESTWARD TRACK...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE HURRICANE EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AND BRINGS RICK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.
INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STRENGTHENING HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 13.3N 101.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 13.7N 102.4W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W 110 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 107.2W 115 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 109.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W 85 KT FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Quick Links and Additional Resources
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Advisories
Tropical Weather Outlook
Audio/Podcasts
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Offshore Waters Forecasts
Gridded Forecasts
Graphicast
About Marine
Social Media
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: "Inside the Eye"
Hurricane Preparedness
Preparedness Guide
Hurricane Hazards
Watches and Warnings
Marine Safety
Ready.gov Hurricanes | en Español
Weather-Ready Nation
Emergency Management Offices
Research and Development
NOAA Hurricane Research Division
Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT)
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
Other Resources
Q & A with NHC
NHC/AOML Library Branch
NOAA: Hurricane FAQs
National Hurricane Operations Plan
WX4NHC Amateur Radio
NWS Forecast Offices
Weather Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
Local Forecast Offices
Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Centers
Canadian Hurricane Centre
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Other Tropical Cyclone Centers
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre
US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2525 Correa Rd
Suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
W-HFO.webmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities