Hurricane RICK (original) (raw)

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ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

RICK CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 0200 UTC AND HAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CIRCULAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSOLIDATED AND NOW CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED CDO WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE ALONG WITH SPIRAL OUTER RAINBANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 0600 UTC DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IDEAL FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS RICK TRAVERSES WATERS AROUND 30C. THE HWRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL...BRINGING RICK TO CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN ABOUT A DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS RICK PEAKING AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH AROUND 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NHC INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE SHOWS THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RICK REACHING CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT INNER CORE DYNAMICS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE INTENSITY OF RICK IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...AS RICK IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 160W IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW RICK TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET IS FAR TO THE LEFT AND IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE AN UNREALISTICALLY SHALLOW REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT DOES NOT RESPOND TO THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 13.9N 102.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.3N 103.7W 110 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 14.9N 106.1W 120 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 15.7N 108.5W 125 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 110.4W 120 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 112.7W 110 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 112.0W 80 KT FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

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