Hurricane RICK (original) (raw)
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ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RICK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 315 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF RICK...WHICH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A REMARKABLE PACE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY ARE AT LEAST 6.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 115 KT BASED ON THESE DATA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SHARPLY UPWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK NEAR CATEGORY 5 STATUS IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING. INNER CORE DYNAMICS MAY ALSO CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODIFICATIONS TO THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1015Z 14.0N 102.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.3N 103.7W 130 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 14.9N 106.1W 135 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 15.7N 108.5W 130 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 110.4W 120 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 112.7W 110 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 112.0W 80 KT FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
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