Hurricane RICK (original) (raw)
- Analyses & Forecasts
- ▾
- Data & Tools
- ▾
- Educational Resources
- ▾
- Archives
- ▾
- About
- ▾
- Search
Search For
NWS All NOAA - ▾
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
RICK HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASING TO 127 AND 115 KT RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE 127 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE WARMING OF THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST FEW HRS...AND RECENT SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE ARE SIGNS THAT RICK IS PEAKING IN INTENSITY.
RICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HRS. THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN 12-24 HRS. AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FOR REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. RICK REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE FROM 48-120 HRS. AFTER 48 HRS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND. THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HRS...AND THEN IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.2N 103.0W 125 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.7N 104.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 107.4W 140 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.2N 109.5W 135 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W 125 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 80 KT FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
Quick Links and Additional Resources
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Advisories
Tropical Weather Outlook
Audio/Podcasts
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Offshore Waters Forecasts
Gridded Forecasts
Graphicast
About Marine
Social Media
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: "Inside the Eye"
Hurricane Preparedness
Preparedness Guide
Hurricane Hazards
Watches and Warnings
Marine Safety
Ready.gov Hurricanes | en Español
Weather-Ready Nation
Emergency Management Offices
Research and Development
NOAA Hurricane Research Division
Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT)
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
Other Resources
Q & A with NHC
NHC/AOML Library Branch
NOAA: Hurricane FAQs
National Hurricane Operations Plan
WX4NHC Amateur Radio
NWS Forecast Offices
Weather Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
Local Forecast Offices
Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Centers
Canadian Hurricane Centre
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Other Tropical Cyclone Centers
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre
US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2525 Correa Rd
Suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
W-HFO.webmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities