Election 2004 (original) (raw)
BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER Margin
% % % % Bush
ELECTION RESULTS Based on certified results, compiled by the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate 50.75 48.30 0.36 0.59 2.45
Pollster Vote Projections
DETAILS Survey BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER Margin
Dates % % % % Bush
Zogby 11/1-2 49.4 49.1 0.3
Battleground: Tarrance(R) * 10/31 - 11/1 51.2 47.8 0.5 0.5 3.4
Battleground: Lake (D) ** 10/31 - 11/1 48.6 50.7
TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 50.1 48.0 1.1 0.8 2.1
Harris 10/29 - 11/1 49 48 2 1 1
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-31 48.7 49.5 0.6 1.0
Gallup 10/29-31 49 49 1 1
Pew Research Center 10/27-30 51 48 1 3
Final Trial Heats *** OTHER/
DETAILS Survey BUSH KERRY NADER UNSURE Margin
Dates % % % % Bush
Marist College 11/1 49 50 - 1
GWU Battleground 10/31 - 11/1 50 46 1 4 4
TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 48.6 45.3 0.9 5.2 3.3
CBS News 10/29 - 11/1 49 47 1 3 2
FOX News 10/30-31 46 48 1 5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29-31 49 47 - 4 2
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-31 47 48 1 3
NBC News/Wall St Journal 10/29-31 48 47 1 4 1
Zogby **** 10/29-31 48 47 1 4 1
ABC News 10/28-31 49 48 1 3 1
Washington Post 10/28-31 49 48 1 3 1
American Research Group 10/28-30 48 48 1 3
Pew Research Center 10/27-30 48 45 1 6 3
Newsweek 10/27-29 50 44 1 5 6
PollingReport.com
_________________ * Tarrance projection based on unaided trial heat question. ** Lake Snell Perry projection based on aided trial heat question. *** Final Trial Heats: Based on surveys of likely voters, with leaners included. **** Zogby: Last set of unallocated results released, although polling continued through election day.
Four More Years The Harris Poll. Nov. 9-14, 2004. N=1,014 adults nationwide. MoE � 3 (for all adults).
.
"Overall do you think that the election process for the presidential election was or was not conducted fairly?"
.
Was Was Not Unsure
% % %
ALL 81 16 4
Republicans 95 4 1
Democrats 68 27 4
Independents 83 15 2
.
"Do you think that there are many, some, only a few or no attempts to intimidate or prevent legitimate voters from voting?"
.
Many Some A Few None Unsure
% % % % %
ALL 8 23 26 39 4
Republicans 2 15 31 50 2
Democrats 12 26 24 35 3
Independents 10 27 25 35 4
Pew Research Center survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 5-8, 2004. N=1,209 adults nationwide who said they voted in the 2004 general election. MoE �3.5 (for the total sample). Respondents were also interviewed in Oct. 2004.
.
"What one issue mattered most to you in deciding how you voted for president?" Open-ended. Multiple responses accepted. Asked of Bush and Kerry voters. Form 1 (N=569).
.
%
Iraq/The war 27
Economy/Jobs 14
Moral values 9
Terrorism/Security 9
Honesty/Integrity 5
Other Bush 5
Other Kerry 4
Health care 3
Abortion 3
Direction of the country 2
Candidate's religiosity, morals 2
Strength/Leadership 2
Foreign policy 2
Gay marriage/Marriage 2
Don't change course 2
Other 15
Unsure/Nothing/Everything 5
.
"Which ONE issue mattered most to you in deciding how you voted for president . . .? " Respondents read list of options below. Options rotated. Asked of Bush and Kerry voters. Form 2 (N=567).
.
ALL BUSH Voters KERRY Voters
% % %
Moral values 27 44 7
Iraq 22 11 34
Economy/Jobs 21 7 36
Terrorism 14 24 3
Health care 4 1 8
Education 4 2 6
Taxes 3 4 2
Other (vol.) 4 5 3
Unsure 1 2 1
.
"Now that the campaign is over, how satisfied were you with the choice of presidential candidates? Would you say that you were very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied?"
.
Very Fairly Not Very Not At All Unsure
% % % % %
11/5-8/04 33 33 16 16 2
11/00 24 44 18 9 5
11/96 18 33 24 22 3
11/92 24 37 21 16 2
11/88 26 36 20 17 1
.
"Compared to past presidential elections, would you say there was more discussion of issues in this campaign or less discussion of issues?"
.
More Less Same (vol.) Unsure
% % % %
11/5-8/04 47 42 7 4
11/00 46 36 13 5
11/96 25 65 6 4
11/92 59 34 4 3
.
"Compared to past presidential elections, would you say there was MORE mud slinging or negative campaigning in this campaign or LESS mud slinging or negative campaigning in this campaign?"
.
More Less Same (vol.) Unsure
% % % %
11/5-8/04 72 14 12 2
11/00 34 46 16 4
11/96 49 36 12 3
11/92 68 16 14 2
.
"Would you say the press has been fair or unfair in the way it has covered[see below] election campaign?"
.
Fair Unfair Unsure
% % %
John Kerry's 65 31 4
George W. Bush's 56 40 4
.
"Generally, are you happy or unhappy that the Republican Party maintained control of the U.S. Congress?"
.
Happy Unhappy Unsure
% % %
11/5-8/04 51 44 5
.
"Are you happy or unhappy that George W. Bush was reelected president?"
.
Happy Unhappy Unsure
% % %
11/5-8/04 53 43 4
.
"In the election, how confident are you that your vote was accurately counted . . .?" Form 1 (N=601)
.
Very Confident Somewhat Confident Not Too Confident Not At All Confident Unsure
% % % % %
11/5-8/04 68 24 4 3 1
.
" In the election, how confident are you that the votes across the country were accurately counted . . . ? " Form 2 (N=608)
.
Very Confident Somewhat Confident Not Too Confident Not At All Confident Unsure
% % % % %
11/5-8/04 48 37 7 7 1
CNN/USA Today/ Gallup Poll. Nov. 3, 2004. N=621 adults nationwide. MoE � 4.
.
"Which of the following best describes your reaction to the outcome of the presidential election: very pleased, pleased, it doesn't matter to you one way or the other, upset, or very upset?" Options rotated
.
Very Pleased Pleased Doesn't Matter Upset Very Upset
% % % % %
11/03/04 33 18 9 18 20
.
"Which comes closest to your view of the way George W. Bush won this election: he won fair and square, he won but only on a technicality, or he stole the election?" Options rotated
.
Won Fair and Square Won on a Technicality Stole the Election Unsure
% % % %
11/03/04 74 10 13 3
.
"Which of the following best describes your feelings as you look ahead to George W. Bush's second term as president: enthusiastic, optimistic, pessimistic, or afraid?" Options rotated
.
Enthu- siastic Optimistic Pessimistic Afraid Unsure
% % % % %
11/03/04 23 33 18 24 2
.
"In the next four years, do you think George W. Bush will do more to unite the country or more to divide the country?" Options rotated
.
Unite Divide Unsure
% % %
11/03/04 57 39 4
.
"Which comes closer to your view? Because the election was so close, George W. Bush should emphasize programs that both parties support. OR, Because he won a majority of the votes, George W. Bush has a mandate to advance the Republican Party's agenda." Options rotated
.
Bipartisan Agenda GOP Agenda Unsure
% % %
11/03/04 63 30 7
.
"Overall, do you think the news media did a good job or a poor job of covering the election on Election Day?"
.
Good Poor Unsure
% % %
11/03/04 78 19 3
Exit Poll Los Angeles Times national exit poll. N=5,154 voters (including 3,357 California voters) interviewed -- using self-administered, confidential questionnaires -- as they exited 136 polling places across the nation on Nov. 2, 2004. Fieldwork by Schlesinger Associates and Davis Research.
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"In the election for president, for whom did you just vote . . . ?"
.
Percentage of All Voters Voted for BUSH Voted for KERRY
% % %
ALL 100 51 48
Men 49 53 46
Women 51 49 50
Married men 31 59 40
Single men 16 40 58
Married women 30 57 42
Single women 19 35 64
18-29 years old 20 43 55
30-44years old 32 52 47
45-64years old 36 54 45
65 & older 12 55 45
Whites 79 57 42
Blacks 10 14 86
Latinos 5 45 54
Asians 3 34 64
Liberals 32 19 79
Moderates 29 45 54
Conservatives 39 82 18
Democrats 40 12 88
Independents 19 48 49
Republicans 39 94 6
City 36 43 56
Suburb 32 52 47
Small town 20 58 41
Rural 12 62 37
.
"Which issues, if any, were most important to you in deciding how you would vote for president today? . . ." Respondents could make up to two selections from the list below.
.
ALL Voters BUSH Voters KERRY Voters
% % %
Moral/Ethical values 40 54 24
Jobs/Economy 33 18 48
Terrorism/Homeland security 29 45 13
Situation in Iraq 16 11 21
Education 15 12 18
Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage 15 14 15
Taxes 9 11 7
Health care 9 5 14
Foreign affairs 5 3 8
Social Security 5 3 7
Medicare/Prescription drugs 3 2 4
None of the above 2 2 3