Election Year Presidential Preference Polling and Voting Outcome (original) (raw)
Real Clear Politics Average Accuracy Record: 2008-2016
| Year | Nominees | Final Average | Election Results | Deviation* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kamala Harris | 48.7 | 48.4 | -0.3 |
| Donald Trump | 48.6 | 49.9 | +1.3 | |
| 2020 | Joseph Biden | 51.4 | 51.3 | -0.1 |
| Donald Trump | 46.9 | 46.9 | 0.0 | |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 46.8 | 48.2 | +1.4 |
| Donald Trump | 43.6 | 46.2 | +2.6 | |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | 49 | 51.1 | +2.1 |
| Mitt Romney | 48 | 47.2 | -0.8 | |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | 52 | 52.6 | -0.6 |
| John McCain | 45 | 46.0 | +1.0 |
The Gallup Poll (1936-2012)#
| Year | Nominees | Final Estimate | Election Results | Deviation* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Barack Obama | 49 | 51.1 | +2.1 |
| Mitt Romney | 50 | 47.2 | -2.8 | |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | 55 | 52.6 | -2.4 |
| John McCain | 44 | 46.0 | +2.0 | |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | 49 | 50.7 | -1.7 |
| John F. Kerry | 49 | 48.3 | +0.7 | |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | 48 | 47.9 | -0.1 |
| Albert Gore, Jr. | 46 | 48.4 | -2.4 | |
| Ralph Nader | 4 | 2.7 | -1.3 | |
| 1996 | William J. Clinton | 52 | 49.2 | -2.8 |
| Robert Dole | 41 | 40.7 | -0.3 | |
| H. Ross Perot | 7 | 8.4 | 1.4 | |
| 1992 | William J. Clinton | 49 | 43.0 | -6.0 |
| George Bush | 37 | 37.4 | 0.4 | |
| H. Ross Perot | 14 | 18.9 | 4.9 | |
| 1988 | George Bush | 56 | 53.4 | -2.6 |
| Michael Dukakis | 44 | 45.6 | 1.6 | |
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan | 59 | 58.8 | -0.2 |
| Walter F. Mondale | 41 | 40.6 | -0.4 | |
| 1980 | Ronald Reagan | 47 | 50.7 | 3.7 |
| Jimmy Carter | 44 | 41.0 | -3.0 | |
| John Anderson | 8 | 6.6 | -1.4 | |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter | 48 | 50.1 | 2.1 |
| Gerald Ford | 49 | 48.0 | -1.0 | |
| 1972 | Richard Nixon | 62 | 60.7 | -1.3 |
| George McGovern | 38 | 37.5 | -0.5 | |
| 1968 | Richard Nixon | 43 | 43.4 | 0.4 |
| Hubert H. Humphrey | 42 | 42.7 | 0.7 | |
| George Wallace | 15 | 13.5 | -1.5 | |
| 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 64 | 61.1 | -2.9 |
| Barry Goldwater | 36 | 38.5 | 2.5 | |
| 1960 | John F. Kennedy | 51 | 49.7 | -1.3 |
| Richard Nixon | 49 | 49.5 | 0.5 | |
| 1956 | Dwight Eisenhower | 59.5 | 57.4 | -2.1 |
| Adlai Stevenson | 40.5 | 42.0 | 1.5 | |
| 1952 | Dwight Eisenhower | 51 | 55.1 | 4.1 |
| Adlai Stevenson | 49 | 44.4 | -4.6 | |
| 1948 | Harry S. Truman | 44.5 | 49.5 | 5.0 |
| Thomas E. Dewey | 49.5 | 45.1 | -4.4 | |
| Strom Thurmond | 4 | 2.4 | -1.6 | |
| 1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 51.5 | 53.4 | 1.9 |
| Thomas E. Dewey | 48.5 | 45.9 | -2.6 | |
| 1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 52 | 54.7 | 2.7 |
| Wendell L. Willkie | 48 | 44.8 | -3.2 | |
| 1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 55.7 | 60.8 | 5.1 |
| Alfred M. Landon | 44.3 | 36.5 | -7.8 |
*Deviation is the actual vote share for the candidate ("election result") minus the final share in the relevant opinion poll(s). A positive number means the candidate got a larger vote share than predicted by the final poll. A negative number means the candidate got a smaller share. For these observations, the mean deviation (or error) is -1.1, suggesting that on average the polls have been reasonably accurate. However, the standard deviation is 2.67 indicating considerable polling errors in specific years.
#Beginning in 2016, Gallup no longer conducts voter preference surveys.
Citation: Gerhard Peters. "Election Year Presidential Preference Polling and Voting Outcome," The American Presidency Project. Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters. Santa Barbara, CA: University of California. Online: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/323909