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Oh My, Oh Miocene!

28 Aug 2024 By Gavin 77 Comments

A recent paper suggested that 'climate sensitivity' derived from a new paleo-CO2 record is around 7.2ºC (for equilibrium climate sensitivity ECS) and ~13.9ºC (Earth System Sensitivity - ESS) for a doubling of CO2. Some press has suggested that this means that "Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees" (F). Huge if true! Fortunately these numbers should not be taken at face value, but we … Read Full Article about Oh My, Oh Miocene!

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Unforced Variations: Sep 2024

1 Sep 2024 By group 168 Comments

The need for pluralism in climate modelling

24 Aug 2024 By group 133 Comments

How should we allocate resources for climate modelling if the goal is to improve climate-related decisions? Higher resolution, machine learning and/or storylines? A call for a deeper discussion on how we should develop the climate modelling toolbox. Guest post by Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, … Read Full Article about The need for pluralism in climate modelling

Unforced variations: Aug 2024

1 Aug 2024 By group

Unforced variations: July 2024

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Unforced variations: June 2024

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New journal: Nature 2023?

30 May 2024 By Gavin

There were a number of media reports today related to , for instance, New Scientist, The Guardian etc. However, this is really just the beginning of what is likely to be a bit of a cottage industry in the next few months relating to possible causes/influences on the extreme temperatures seen in … Read Full Article about New journal: Nature 2023?

Unforced Variations: May 2024

30 Apr 2024 By group

This month's open thread on climate topics. Many eyes will be focused on whether April temperatures will be the 11th month in row of records... Note that we have updated the data and figures from the Nenana Ice Classic and Dawson City river ice break up pools (the nominal 13th and 5th earliest … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: May 2024

Much ado about acceleration

4 Apr 2024 By Gavin

There has been a lot of commentary about perceived disagreements among climate scientists about whether climate change is, or will soon, accelerate. As with most punditry, there is less here than it might seem. … Read Full Article about Much ado about acceleration

Unforced variations: Apr 2024

1 Apr 2024 By group

This month's open thread on climate topics. Lots more discussion about 2023, aerosols, heat content and imbalances to come I expect... Note, comments should be substantive even if you are arguing with who you perceive to be the worst person in the world. Comments that are mainly personal attacks … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Apr 2024

More solar shenanigans*

7 Mar 2024 By Gavin

Going back a few months, I spent a bit of time pointing out the strategy and nonsense in the various Willie Soon and company's efforts to blame current warming on solar activity. I specifically pointed out their cultish devotion to a single solar activity reconstruction (HS93); with an update from … Read Full Article about More solar shenanigans*