Afghanistan: Nation Protects Storied Bactrian Treasure (original) (raw)

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Xi's Upside And Downside

Former President Donald Trump has declared victory in the U.S. election against Vice President Kamala Harris.

It's an outcome that will have implications far beyond the United States, so here's what another Trump administration could look like for China.

Finding Perspective: Beijing and Washington are the world's two largest economies and another Trump term will have a major impact on where the relationship between the two rival powers goes.

There is something of a consensus in Washington when it comes to Beijing, with a focus on constraining China's continued rise on the world stage.

Trump's previous term saw a trade war, with him slapping tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods and launching a global campaign against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.

Four years of President Joe Biden, meanwhile, saw him adopt a more measured tone than Trump, but his administration also targeted Chinese tech industries with investment and export controls, as well as tariffs on items like Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).

Despite that overlap, there are still important differences in the short and long term for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The View On Trump: If Harris represented a more predictable approach and a more traditional U.S. foreign policy, Trump is the ultimate wild card for Beijing.

The former president has threatened upwards of 60 percent tariffs on all imports from China and has spoken openly of his desire to ramp up another trade war. None of that is good for Beijing as it grapples with a slowing economy and weighs how to use a potential fiscal stimulus.

But that short-term pain comes with potential long-term upside for Xi.

Chinese analysts have sometimes seen Trump's divisiveness at home and his "America First" brand of foreign policy as a net gain for Beijing as it tries to overtake Washington on the global stage.

That could look more appealing on the horizon if Trump, who has questioned traditional U.S. alliances, strains relations with U.S. partners in Europe and Asia and leaves diplomatic openings for Beijing.

Analysts saw Harris as looking to continue Biden's emphasis on building a network of allies and partners to constrain China, something that Philip Gordon, her national-security adviser, said in May, before Biden dropped out of the race, was an American advantage against Beijing and other potential U.S. adversaries.

"We're in a favorable position to win this geopolitical competition, to the degree it's Russia and China and other autocracies aligning against us.... It's why the president and the vice president have invested so much time in those alliances."

Yes, But: Trump has said that he wants to quickly push for the end of the war in Ukraine and has said that Taiwan isn't paying Washington enough money for the U.S. government's support, but the upside for Beijing isn't so straightforward.

While Trump bringing an end to the war in Ukraine -- if possible -- could embolden Beijing to act on Taiwan in the future, it could also free up Washington to devote more resources to the Indo-Pacific to more directly challenge China.

Why It Matters: Regardless of who would have won the U.S. election, Beijing expected little improvement in its tense ties with Washington.

Trump's victory now comes at a pivotal time for both countries, especially as Xi looks to turn China into an alternative center of global power.

Xi believes that the West -- and particularly the United States -- is in decline, and he remarked to Russian President Vladimir Putin last year that we are now living in a period of great historical change the likes of which we have "not seen in 100 years."

Kevin Rudd, Australia's ambassador to Washington who has met Xi several times, says that these views reflect how Chinese policymakers see the United States' trajectory and that Xi "sees the forces of history moving decisively in China's direction."

In his second term, Trump will be in a pivotal position to prove Xi right or wrong.

1. Kazakhstan Inks Billions In New Deals

Kazakhstan signed eight commercial agreements worth $2.5 billion with Chinese companies on November 4.

The Details: The agreements were signed during a visit to Shanghai by Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov.

The agreements support a broader strategy by Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev and Xi to double trade turnover, which reached a record $41 billion last year, the Kazakh prime minister's press service said in a statement.

At an investment roundtable, Bektenov emphasized the potential for joint projects and industrial cooperation. Major Chinese firms also outlined plans to enhance operations in Kazakhstan, including energy initiatives and localized vehicle production.

There are already around 5,000 joint ventures between the two countries.

2. Slovakia's Fico Goes To Beijing

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico **visited Beijing **for a multiday state visit where he signed a strategic partnership agreement and backed Chinese diplomacy around the war in Ukraine.

What You Need To Know: Fico met with Xi on November 1 and said afterward that China's position on the war in Ukraine "is fair, objective, and constructive" and that Bratislava was ready to join a proposal promoted by Brazil and China to resolve the war.

Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy rejecting the plan, Fico said Slovakia was willing to join other countries that China says have positively received it "and work with China to contribute to promoting a political solution to the crisis," according to a Chinese government statement.

Fico, who has criticized EU policies on Ukraine and has opposed sanctions on Russia, said Slovakia was "very keen on China's diplomatic efforts dedicated to regulating the conflict in Ukraine and have exchanged our attitudes on this fundamental issue."

3. More China-Afghan Deals

The Taliban's embassy in Beijing has announced the inauguration and operational launch of a new freight railway line connecting China and Afghanistan.

What It Means: It's another headline pointing toward warming ties between Beijing and the Taliban. Last week, China announced that it will offer the Taliban tariff-free access to its vast construction, energy, and consumer sectors.

But the devil is in the details. This rail line is not a direct connection from China to Afghanistan and instead crosses through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan before stopping in northern Afghanistan.

According to the statement, the first journey of the freight train to the Hairatan port has commenced, with an initial shipment of 50 containers expected to reach its destination within 20 days of its departure.

As with the ground-breaking ceremony for the giant Mes Aynak copper mine in July, the moves are important optics for a cash-trapped and largely isolated Taliban, but are likely to take years to truly develop into something concrete.

Beijing still has lingering security questions about Afghanistan and is hesitant about having too many direct connections between it and China.

A similar dynamic unfolded earlier this year when the Taliban announced a new road through the Wakhan Corridor leading to the border with China.

Despite the announcement of the completion of the project, however, a road link with China remains far from suitable for meaningful cross-border trade and there is little Chinese custom infrastructure at the border.

Across The Supercontinent

From Taipei to Kyiv via Vilnius: Taiwan signed an agreement with Lithuania on October 30 to donate $5 million to recovery efforts in Ukraine.

The funds will go to education, veteran rehabilitation, and safety training in explosives and hazardous materials.

Railway Collapse: The Serbian minister of construction, transport, and infrastructure resigned on November 5 following the collapse of a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station that killed 14 people and left three injured, RFE/RL's Balkan Service reports.

Protests continue in Serbia and the role of Chinese and Hungarian companies involved in the construction of the station have also been in the spotlight. Serbian officials have said that while a Chinese consortium was involved in the station, it did not work on the roof that later collapsed.

Still, with the construction contracts kept secret -- a clause often requested by Chinese firms -- calls for greater transparency around the project are growing.

Finland's New Tightrope: Finnish President Alexander Stubb wrapped up a state visit to China last week where he met with Xi.

Stubb told Xi that North Korean activities with Russia were an escalation and provocation in a message delivered on behalf of NATO and the European Union.

One Thing To Watch

A survey conducted ahead of the U.S. election by pollsters at National Taiwan University in Taipei found that 56 percent of Taiwanese preferred Harris as the next U.S. president compared to only 16 percent for Trump. Twenty-three percent of those polled said they didn't have an opinion.

Winning over Trump -- who has spoken about reevaluating some tenets of Washington's traditional line towards Taiwan -- will be key for the self-governing island.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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