Talking Numbers: A Closer Look Into Man United's Liverpool Defeat - Stretty Rant (original) (raw)
Manchester United faced Liverpool and once again have suffered a big defeat at the hands of their fiercest rival. Arne Slot’s side came to Old Trafford and got all three points with a comfortable 3-0 win, something that is not even a slight surprise these days, considering all the hammerings United had suffered in recent years against Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. Now, it was once more a terrible match for the Red Devils, with Mohamed Salah harassing United’s defence with two assists and a goal to his name.
We spoke after the match about all the key storylines from the match and the four things we learned, but now is the time for us to talk a little bit more about the underlying metrics and numbers that could also give us some more insight into what went wrong for Erik Ten Hag’s struggling side.
The Expected Goals Storyline
Looking at the expected goals, Man United did not do so bad. The Devils acquired 1.4xG which is not great, but Liverpool’s 1.8xG is not all that much better to earn them a three-goal win. So what went wrong? Liverpool’s finishing was far better than maybe their numbers would have expected them, with both Luis Diaz’s goals coming after the Colombian did a great job to utilise the space given to him. Liverpool’s xG per shot amounted to 0.164, while United’s xG per shot was slightly better at 0.175. But then again, United’s finishing has been bad for a long while, while Liverpool were absolutely on point to score from the only three shots they made on target. While some might argue Liverpool were a bit lucky in that regard, it is telling that United rarely deserve such ‘luck’ called great finishing and taking up all the opportunities that come your way.
United’s Mistakes In Key Areas
There were four errors in these 90 minutes which lead to an opponent’s shot on goal, and all four came from Man United players. To make things much worse, three of those four shots turned out to be goals for Liverpool, as Casemiro made two such mistakes and Kobbie Mainoo one, with Lisandro Martinez’s mistake not costing the Devils further. But the mistakes in central midfield and central defence are the exact mistakes Liverpool wanted to create in United’s display, pouncing on them with their usual energy. The partnership of Mainoo and Casemiro were dispossessed on five different occasions, while Casemiro and Martinez were dribbled past on four out of five situations. And yes, Liverpool are definitely a team that will make you pay for those mistakes.
No Wings, No Threat
Finally, we get to Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho. Man United’s starting wingers on the day had absolutely nothing good going about their displays, showing just how much harder everything is for the Devils when there is no threat coming from the wings. Rashford and Garnacho in total had zero goals, zero shots, two successful take-ons in eight tries, and three key passes to at least slightly make things look better. Garnacho was particularly helpless, failing to do anything that would make Liverpool think, while Rashford continued with his poor performances which last pretty much since the beginning of last season. Things are so bad for him this season that he did not take a single shot in the Premier League, so Rashford’s expected goals tally since the start of 2023-24 stands at 7.4xG in 28 full 90-minute matches.