Current Chaos Manor mail (original) (raw)
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Windmills
Jerry,
Windmills have the cardinal advantage that they very publicly show that the government is doing something. Quibbles about base load, line losses in getting the power to the grid, and other technical arcana only influence a very small section of the electorate. One place where windmills could be used to advantage is as a supplement to existing pumped storage hydro-electricity schemes. The grid is already there for direct output and the power line between the high storage lake where the windmill would be and the bottom of the dam is short when the power is used to replenish the lake. By switching pumps in and out a wide range of wind speeds could be exploited. Last but not least, the storage lake would be a useful buffer between times of supply and times of demand.
Such schemes would only make a tiny contribution to our energy needs but absent some astonishing development like room temperature superconductors or a storage battery with comparable power to weight to petrol, all we can hope for is lots and lots of tiny improvements.
John Edwards
==
Rod Montgomery writes: "The bad news is that wind power tends to be *negatively* correlated with demand: for example, in the summer, wind generator output tends to be greatest at night, when demand is lightest, and to be least in the afternoon, when the demand for power for air conditioning is heaviest. This might not be as much an issue, if we move to a system in which there's lots of *demand* that can be dispatched. For example, we might some day have zillions of battery-powered cars that can be recharged overnight under control of the grid dispatching authority."
You could do much the same thing with an internet-driven "load shedding" plan. Let's hypothetically divide all electricity use into, say, five - pr five hundred - categories. Hospitals and critical infrastructure, Cat 1. Residences, Cat 2. Industry, Cat 3. Less critical industry, Cat 4, and lob everything that isn't especially time-sensitive into Cat 5. Devise some simple internet-connected devices that will accept a shut-off command and program each device with a random-number generator and the category. When the wind blows, there's lots of power and all Cat5 devices are enabled. When the wind fades, the control grid (here in California, it could be CalISO, the "Independent System Operator" in Folsom, CA) generates enough random numbers to shut off enough Cat5 devices to balance the supply. As the wind continues to fade, the grid operator shuts down more and more of the non-critical electrical load to keep the supply and the load in balance.
Let me give you an example. I'd be upset if my computers and internet connection went down; I consider my internet connection to be Cat2. I'd rather have the chest freezer, a Cat5 device, turned off. (The freezer will stay frozen for several hours without power.) With this sort of net-based system, I can make these sorts of value judgments myself in cooperation with my neighbors around the country. A friend of mine named Tom Tamarkin actually designed and builds utility meters designed to be remotely controlled either for load-shedding or for time-of-use metering. (His web site, if anyone is interested, is at http://www.usclcorp.com. )
Add irregular wind power to a net-based control system and you could shut down - or throttle back - your natural gas powered "peaker" plants and perhaps even some oil-fired power plants, too.
--- Ken Mitchell
Pumped storage is environmentally awful most of the time. It creates a lake useful for very little (the level changes constantly, and the fish get shredded in turbines) but it certainly is efficient. The Continental US stretches over four time zones. That's enough to allow some averaging, but peak loads happen in summer daytimes, and in many places the wind comes up at night.
I don't pretend to be an expert here; but it's clear that the devil is in the details.
==
Jerry, as usual your brain is quite sharp ... best wishes for a continued recovery.
Wind energy needs to be stored - all forms of storage involve efficiency losses, but hey ... the wind is free right? Store an appropriate percent in a battery or a flywheel or pump water uphill and let it run back downhill and turn the turbines when the wind isn't blowing.
WIND ENERGY, SCIENCE, BATTERIES, etc.
As is typical in engineering ... multiple "discoveries" and issues seem to be converging all at the same time.
Wind turbines (depend on carbon fiber, invented for the Manhattan project) Better batteries (battery technology has been driven by small consumer electronics) Ultra High Price Oil (China makes the electronics which gives them enough money to buy cars which require petrol ... increasing demand in a market with limited supply) Electric cars - everybody wants one if they are cheaper to operate
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/03/27/denmark_agassi_ev/ ... exerpts below ...
Denmark has become the second country to sign up to Shai Agassi's ambitious plan to wean the world off petrol-driven transportation, with the announcement of a deal between Agassi's Project Better Place and Danish utility Dong Energy. As with the Israeli deal announced in January, <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/01/22/israel_electric_car_project/> the latest venture will involve mass production of electric vehicles and the rollout of an extensive recharging and battery swap infrastructure.
Aside from powering cars, the Danish infrastructure is also intended to act as storage capacity for the country's wind power generation capability. On average around 20 per cent of Denmark's electricity comes from wind, but this can be substantially higher or lower, depending on conditions, meaning there's a need to sell off surplus power to neighbouring countries, and to maintain a substantial standby capacity to fill the gap when the wind is low. Two million electric cars in circulation, however, would give provide a standby capacity around five times the size of Denmark's needs, says Agassi. This he says is being designed into the infrastructure from the start, with smart charging systems charging batteries when the power's plentiful, and even feeding power back into the grid when necessary.
== Jim Coffey
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Jerry,
Directly related to my previous thoughts today......
Unfortunately, I hear now that we will punish the Russians by pulling out of talks to work with them vis-a-vis nuclear technology, yet we have sold high technology to the Chinese. The Russians don't need help building nuclear weapons, yet they are interested in seeking help in the civilian field. I heard the aforementioned on the radio so unfortunately, I don't have a link to give you. It just doesn't seem logical.
And, as I type, I hear the Russians again threaten to help Iran's nuclear program. I would surmise that this means increase assistance when they were reluctant to help too much before.
Just as I see something that makes sense with India, it seems we pull another dumb one with the Russians. As I said before, I hope behind the scenes, a little more realpolitik is occurring.
Curt
So do I.
==
Dear Jerry,
Some big doings here in my opinion, but will our government have the vision to do the right thing?
Bush to Press Nuclear Deal With India
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122083577266508761.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"The deal would pave the way for the U.S. to supply India with nuclear fuel and technology for civilian use. It could also open up more opportunities for American civilian and military-technology companies, like Boeing <http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=BA> Co. and Lockheed Martin <http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=lmt> Corp., to do business in the world's second-most-populous nation."
Nuclear industry revival in the U.S.? We can only hope!
I would suggest that opening up India economically makes perfect sense. Also consider now that Musharref is gone, does India become a more viable ally strategically? And, consider the strategic implications vis-a-vis warming relations with India as Indian-Chinese relations cool.
China state paper lashes India-U.S. nuclear deal
http://in.reuters.com/article/topNews/idINIndia-35260420080901
"BEIJING (Reuters) - China's top newspaper called a nuclear agreement between India and the United States a "major blow" to non-proliferation, raising pressure as the deal faces opposition in an international atomic cartel"
Is the deal worth the fallout?
I'm not seeing the downside here at least compared to the upside. I'm sure I'm missing something unfortunately.
I truly wish people could realize the upside of a revival of the industry. Building and support for the industry at home, exporting our nuclear expertise again, what an upside.
Sincerely
Curt
==========
Inferno and Escape from Hell
Just wanted to drop a quick note and say thanks for putting Inferno out in a Kindle edition. I bought it yesterday and am eagerly awaiting Escape from Hell. I started a thread in the Kindle forum to let fellow Kindlers know about the release:
http://www.amazon.com/
Looking-great-Sci-Fi-Fantasy-Kindle/forum/
FxBVKST06PWP9B/Tx3W4GYYTJVV5LN/1
/ref=cm_cd_ef_tft_tp?%5Fencoding=
UTF8&asin=B000FI73MA
Regards,
Jonathan Crain
Thanks!
===========
Hawking bets against the LHC finding the Higgs
Jerry,
Hawking hopes the experiment at the LHC will not produced the expected result. The tone of the article gives me the sense that Hawking wants the universe to remain mysterious to the physicists.
I hope Hawking is right.
Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE
<http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080909150154.yzfml9cn&show_arti cle=1> "...."The LHC will increase the energy at which we can study particle interactions by a factor of four. According to present thinking, this should be enough to discover the Higgs particle," Hawking told BBC radio....
"....I think it will be much more exciting if we don't find the Higgs. That will show something is wrong, and we need to think again. I have a bet of 100 dollars that we won't find the Higgs," added Hawking...."
....Whatever the LHC finds, or fails to find, the results will tell us a lot about the structure of the universe," he added...."
Well, according to a German chemist it won't matter since they will create a Quasar in the center of the Earth, and in a few years we'll see light beams coming out of the oceans, after which we are all doomed.
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EU wants to ban "sexist" TV commercials
I take consolation that Europe is even crazier than the U.S. For now.
=============
EU wants to ban 'sexist' TV commercials MEPs want TV regulators in the EU to set guidelines which would see the end of anything deemed to portray women as sex objects or reinforce gender stereotypes.
This could potentially mean an end to attractive women advertising perfume, housewives in the kitchen or men doing DIY.
Such classic adverts as the Diet Coke commercial featuring the bare-chested builder, or Wonderbra's "Hello Boys" featuring model Eva Herzigova would have been banned.
The new rules come in a report by the EU's women's rights committee.
Swedish MEP Eva-Britt Svensson urged Britain and other members to use existing equality, sexism and discrimination laws to control advertising.
She wants regulatory bodies set up to monitor ads and introduce a "zero-tolerance" policy against "sexist insults or degrading images".
Ms Svensson said: "Gender stereotyping in advertising straitjackets women, men, girls and boys by restricting individuals to predetermined and artificial roles that are often degrading, humiliating and dumbed down for both sexes."
She added: "Gender stereotyping in advertising is one of several factors that have a big influence in efforts to make society more gender equal.
"When women and men are portrayed in a stereotypical way the consequence may be that it becomes difficult in other contexts to see women and men's resources and abilities."
The Advertising Standards Authority however had said there are already checks in place to prevent "discriminatory or harmful" material.
A spokesman said: "Although the ASA supports the overall objectives of the report... the approach suggested is inflexible and impractical."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/
2686538/EU-wants-to-ban-sexist-TV-commercials.html
Patricia
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NPR October 28, 1994 SHOW: All Things Considered (NPR 4:30 pm ET)
Charles Murray's Political Expediency Denounced BYLINE: BARACK OBAMA SECTION: News; Domestic LENGTH: 635 words
HIGHLIGHT: Commentator Barack Obama finds that Charles Murray, author of the controversial "The Bell Curve," demonstrates not scientific expertise but spurious political motivation in his conclusions about race and IQ.
BARACK OBAMA, Commentator: Charles Murray is inviting American down a dangerous path.
NOAH ADAMS, Host: Civil rights lawyer, Barack Obama.
Mr. OBAMA: The idea that inferior genes account for the problems of the poor in general, and blacks in particular, isn't new, of course. Racial supremacists have been using IQ tests to support their theories since the turn of the century. The arguments against such dubious science aren't new either. Scientists have repeatedly told us that genes don't vary much from one race to another, and psychologists have pointed out the role that language and other cultural barriers can play in depressing minority test scores, and no one disputes that children whose mothers smoke crack when they're pregnant are going to have developmental problems.
Now, it shouldn't take a genius to figure out that with early intervention such problems can be prevented. But Mr. Murray isn't interested in prevention. He's interested in pushing a very particular policy agenda, specifically, the elimination of affirmative action and welfare programs aimed at the poor. With one finger out to the political wind, Mr. Murray has apparently decided that white America is ready for a return to good old-fashioned racism so long as it's artfully packaged and can admit for exceptions like Colin Powell. It's easy to see the basis for Mr. Murray's calculations. After watching their income stagnate or decline over the past decade, the majority of Americans are in an ugly mood and deeply resent any advantages, real or perceived, that minorities may enjoy.
I happen to think Mr. Murray's wrong, not just in his estimation of black people, but in his estimation of the broader American public. But I do think Mr. Murray's right about the growing distance between the races. The violence and despair of the inner city are real. So's the problem of street crime. The longer we allow these problems to fester, the easier it becomes for white America to see all blacks as menacing and for black America to see all whites as racist. To close that gap, we're going to have to do more than denounce Mr. Murray's book. We're going to have to take concrete and deliberate action. For blacks, that means taking greater responsibility for the state of our own communities. Too many of us use white racism as an excuse for self-defeating behavior. Too many of our young people think education is a white thing and that the values of hard work and discipline and self-respect are somehow outdated.
That being said, it's time for all of us, and now I'm talking about the larger American community, to acknowledge that we've never even come close to providing equal opportunity to the majority of black children. Real opportunity would mean quality prenatal care for all women and well-funded and innovative public schools for all children. Real opportunity would mean a job at a living wage for everyone who was willing to work, jobs that can return some structure and dignity to people's lives and give inner-city children something more than a basketball rim to shoot for. In the short run, such ladders of opportunity are going to cost more, not less, than either welfare or affirmative action. But, in the long run, our investment should pay off handsomely. That we fail to make this investment is just plain stupid. It's not the result of an intellectual deficit. It's the result of a moral deficit.
ADAMS: Barack Obama is a civil rights lawyer and writer. He lives in Chicago.
At about that time I told Newt Gingrich that the Head Start program specifically forbids teaching reading to kids as a Head Start. He tried to get something done, but the DOE people and others kept everything in a state of confusion. The Act states "developmentally appropriate" and the Educrats have decreed that reading instruction is not educationally appropriate, but the act itself does not forbid reading instruction.
No study has been able to show any difference between Head Start kids and kids who didn't get Head Start; in other words, all those efforts to overcome developmental problems have been a waste. It is still my opinion that if you taught kids to read they'd have a real head start. The education establishment hates that thought because it would show their incompetence at teaching reading: that is, some would actually teach the kids to read because teachers really wish they could do that and some would stumble across programs like my wife's reading program that actually work. So you will never see the educrats allowing any kind of intensive reading instruction for poor kids.
No doubt Obama gets his information from education professionals and has no real reason to doubt that what they tell him is the absolute truth.
For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:
