Current Chaos Manor mail (original) (raw)

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Spending Stalls and Businesses Slash U.S. Jobs - NYTimes.com

Dear Jerry,

1. Domestic

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/business/
26layoffs.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

"The steel mills, big suppliers to many sectors of the economy, are shutting 17 of the nation�s 29 blast furnaces � a startling indicator of how quickly output is declining as corporate America struggles to adjust to the spreading crisis."

Roughly 50% of the 100 million annual tons of US domestic steel capacity is through these 29 blast furnaces. The other 50% is scrap steel remelted in electric arc furnaces. Therefore somewhere between from 15 to 20 million tons capacity is being taken off line. And this optimistic estimate assumes the smallest blast furnaces are being idled, not the largest ones.

We are therefore looking at a current 20% decline in domestic manufacturing activity.

2. International

http://tinyurl.com/5btrw5

"Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard" (The Telegraph)

"The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect. They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion �2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom � a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles."

If any part of that paragraph is true it's not possible to assign limits to what will happen. One revelation at the time of the AIG collapse is that European commercial banks use much more leverage than American commercial banks. In terms of capital ratios they were more similar to the now failed Wall Street investment banks.

"Austria�s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP � with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia � all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund. Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama. Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent 316bntoLatinAmerica,almosttwicethelendingbyallUSbankscombined(316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined (316bntoLatinAmerica,almosttwicethelendingbyallUSbankscombined(172bn) to what was once the US backyard."

That "staid old lady" US 4% refers to percentage of annual GDP. That means 4% of a 13trillionGDP,or13 trillion GDP, or 13trillionGDP,or500 billion. Losses presumably won't be 100%, so only a large fraction of $500 billion needs to be added to US financial institutions' other current capital losses.

Best Wishes,

Mark

=============

After doing away with guns they will have to do away with hands

South Africa in grip of strangulation spate

Murder of women by strangulation is a serious problem in South Africa. Researchers writing in the open access journal BMC Public Health compared four South African cities for the period 2001 to 2005, and report information about the prevalence and timing of attacks, and give details about the victims.

Most cases of strangulation are committed by men against women, as it requires a large disparity in strength between attacker and victim. According to the authors of the study, Shahnaaz Suffla, Ashley van Niekerk and Najuwa Arendse of the South African Medical Research Council and University of South Africa, "Gender-based violence persists as a global problem. In the year 2000, there were an estimated 119,000 female homicides worldwide and South Africa is estimated to have the highest rate of intimate female homicide in the world, despite its democratic transformation, strong emerging economy and widespread structural and social improvements".

The authors found that most cases of strangulation occurred early in the morning and that, while most victims had drunk no alcohol, drinking more than the legal limit was associated with a higher occurrence than drinking in moderation. In all of the cities studied, most strangulations occurred in the home. The authors said, "The strangulation rates we found are likely to be high relative to those of other African countries, where the overall homicide rate is up to 30% lower than in South Africa".

While strangulation rates declined over the five years studied in Pretoria, Johannesburg and Durban, they increased in Cape Town. The Western Cape Province, of which Cape Town is the capital and largest metropolitan centre, also reported the highest number of reported cases of rape during this period. According to Suffla and her co-authors, "This supports the proposed link between sexual violence and female strangulation".

Citation: Female homicidal strangulation in urban South Africa, Shahnaaz Suffla, Ashley Van Niekerk and Najuwa Arendse, BMC Public Health (in press) http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcpublichealth/

Source: BioMed Central http://www.physorg.com/news143787118.html

We need brick and knife control, too.

===========

One-third of Swedes want to live in gated communities: study

Two stories of note from Sweden.

====

One-third of Swedes want to live in gated communities: study One in three Swedes wants to live in a gated community which prohibits unauthorized people from entering, a new study shows.

Most interested in the security provided by such living situations are young singles, of which 41 percent reported wanting to live someplace surrounded by fences or requiring a door code for entry.

Meanwhile, only 26 percent of families with small children said they desired the additional security measures.

The study also reported that less than one fourth of the survey�s respondents � 23 percent � want to live in areas which feature cultural, ethnic, and social diversity.

The results come from a report entitled BoTrender 08 (�Living Tends �08�) carried out by the Tyr�ns Temaplan consulting company and based on responses gathered in August from 5,000 Swedes aged 18- to 70-years-old who live in apartments or are considering living in apartments in the future.

�I don�t think that those who answered the study were thinking of barbed wire, high walls, and guards, but rather a more secluded area with checks on who enters,� said Tyr�ns Temaplan�s Mia Wahlstr�m to the Svenska Dadbladet newspaper.

G�ran Cars, a professor of urban studies at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), said the study shows people place a high value on safety and security when it comes to where they live, but expresses his reservations about what a proliferation of gated communities might mean for Sweden.

�I would consider it deeply tragic of there was a propagation of gated communities. That would mean my city would lose some of its appeal; its diversity of people and activities. The city�s services would become impoverished and it would lose its international competitiveness,� he told SvD.

Pointing to trends in the United States, a country in which gated communities have become increasingly popular, Cars added that the trend can actually result in public places becoming less safe.

He believes that society has a choice to make when it comes to dealing with rising rates of crime and violence.

�On the one hand, we can accept the increase violence and insecurity. Then everyone who can afford to will choose to live in protected area. On the other hand, we can vigorously combat the violence and abuse which damages our security and safety by giving police and social services more resources,� he said.

: http://www.thelocal.se/15200/20081024/

= = = = =

Swedes cool towards ethnic diversity Greater numbers of Swedes are expressing hostility towards ethnic diversity, according to a new study.

According to the annual diversity barometer carried out by researchers at Uppsala University, the percentage of the Swedish population with extremely negative attitudes toward ethnic diversity has increased by 50 percent since 2005.

�The extremely negative attitudes are increasing, and we believe it�s in line with what�s happening in Europe. It�s not only older, but also younger who are negative,� said Orlando Mella, a sociology professor from Uppsala University, to the Dagens Nyheter (DN) newspaper.

However, Mella added that in comparison to the rest of Europe, Sweden is generally quite positive toward diversity.

Overall, 5.7 percent of the population in Sweden indicated they have extremely negative attitudes toward diversity, up from 3.8 percent in 2005.

Among men, the instance of negative attitudes has increased from 5.3 to 7.5 percent since 2005.

Unexpectedly, however, the prevalence of negative attitudes toward ethnic diversity among Swedish women has nearly doubled from 2.3 percent to 4.1 percent.

�It�s surprising for us that there are more women in the group [expressing negative attitudes]; that�s not something we expected. Swedish women tend to be quite positive toward diversity,� said Mella.

Despite the growth of unfavourable views towards diversity in Sweden, Mella believes the country is better equipped to integrate immigrant groups than other European countries and that public perceptions of social exclusion among immigrants in Sweden is exaggerated.

�The large number of immigrants are on the way to or currently are being integrated,� she said.

Nevertheless, Mella said that continued growth in the number of Swedes expressing hostility toward ethnic diversity has the potential to affect Swedes� attitudes more widely, noting that rising unemployment presents a challenge for politicians.

�But we should remember that there aren�t deep ethnic conflicts in Sweden like there are in France or Great Britain,� she said.

http://www.thelocal.se/15198/20081024/

= = = =

A generation ago no one in Sweden wanted to live in a gated community, and even the Prime Minister lived in an apartment downtown. The Royal Family was somewhat protected but not excessively so.

=========

Kindle on Oprah

Maybe this will give the Kindle the boost is needs to get into the mainstream! My wife is talking about wanting a Kindle for Christmas. You have to understand that my wife is very much a paper person. We have bookshelves all over the house that are full of books. she has an entire 6 foot high bookshelf that is full of books she hasn't read yet. And yet, she is feeling that she would enjoy a Kindle.

Some articles:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/10/24/oprah_kindle/

http://www.informationweek.com/news/
hardware/handheld/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=211600532

Glenn Hunt

============

The Commissars Of Climate Change

"It's not just income taxes that might trash the dreams of Joe the Plumber."

http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/22/
climate-united-nations-oped-cx_cr_1023rosett_print.html

-Joe

===========

your reply to Mr. Ludwick Thursday October 23rd

This subject is not new, by any means. If you have not yet found the meaning of the words �Three Conjectures� in this context then I recommend that you do a search for that phrase.

By the way, good luck getting that novel published.

I can see three possible outcomes to this problem, none of them good. The first is that the West continues to sleep until the followers of Mohammed (hellfire and eternal damnation be upon him) win � either by violence or simply out-breeding the free peoples of the world. This way lies the end of civilisation, with no way back, and the possible extinction of humanity. Why? Because we NEED the resources of space, and the global Caliphate will not have the physical or intellectual resources to go and get them.

Second path; we wake up while there is still time, and do the things necessary; which include expelling and/or banning the practice of Islam and all its adherents from any Western country, particularly the USA, and also making a real effort to get independent of the Arab Middle East so as to avoid giving money to those who want to kill us. In other words, starve the SOBs to death.

The third way is almost as bad as the first. It depends to some extent on the actions of the enemy, and involves us continuing to sleep until some jihadi lunatic obtains and uses a WMD, possibly nuclear, somewhere in the West � and us invoking the logic of the Three Conjectures and finishing the job started by Charles Martel. This involves approximately a billion deaths, several tens of megatons at the very least and quite a lot of fallout; and at the end of it Islam will be an unpleasant memory and the Middle East will be a graveyard dotted with a couple of dozen circles of glass that glow in the dark. And it also involves irreparable harm to the concept and the soul of the free West; unlike the enemy, we have a conscience.

I prefer the second alternative, but would settle for the third. Anything is better than the first.

Regards

Ian Campbell

================w

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