Mail 543 November 3 - 9, 2008 (original) (raw)
Friday, November 7, 2008
Well, THAT's confirmed
It is easy to infer from the post-election "Dividedwefail.org" commercials that their objective all along has been to twist Republican arms to fall into the Democratic agenda.
Yes, Divided we fail. But we also fail if we unify behind the wrong ideas, and usually worse.
Jim
It is always bad tactics to let the other side set the terms of debate. It is worse strategy not to know what you stand for.
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Jerry,
A politically incorrect assertion:
The white majority is likely to be hurting if Obama implements the policies he has championed, and it is likely that the advances of the civil rights era will be reversed during the next two years -- even if his politics, in the end, hurts the black population proportionally. But if the Black (and Hispanic/illegal) population benefits, it will become very ugly.
I hate to say this, but if blacks support the Black candidate by 96%, that is reverse racism; if it is reciprocated, the majority will probably respond. Most likely in the ballot box in 2010.
There's little to say that isn't obvious.
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Obama's Tech Czar?
Dr. Pournelle --
I see that your name's being bandied about as a future member of the Obama Cabinet:
http://techblog.dallasnews.com/archives/
2008/11/bill-joy-now-being-touted-as-c.html
Most respectfully,
JJ Brannon
Hardly likely. Wrong party, and I am a bit old. I am told that the worst 48 hours of many NASA bureaucrats lives was when the rumor went out that I was to be the new Administrator of NASA. It wasn't a real rumor even -- that is there was no real chance it would happen -- but it sure got the hive in motion for a while.
It will be interesting to see if Obama takes science and technology seriously, or if he is another Gore.
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Atlas Hope and Change
Those of you familiar with "Atlas Shrugged" should appreciate this : www.peeniewallie.com.atlas.hopeandchange.4.jpg , image/jpeg , 148K , or http://www.peeniewallie.com/2008/11/atlas-hope-and.html )
Thanks to Rob Kiser for his help on this.
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Election results
Turnout is estimated between 60-64% making it one of the highest turnout percentages in decades. First time voters were up as well, 18-30 year olds only went up by one percent as a percentage of turnout, but that is itself a numerical increase of fairly large numbers, and this time they voted 2-1 for both Obama and for Democrats in Congress. Losing a whole generation is the legacy of the Rovian politics where you lie and smear your opponents and whip up hatred among half the country for the other half. It didn't sell this time, except among your readers.
Norman Short
Well, that's one view of my readers. It isn't mine. And see below
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Navy Hymn
A delightful YouTube video of the Navy Hymn from the Royal Navy.
http://www.britsattheirbest.com/002427.php
- Ken Mitchell
And another reason we can hope there will always be an England.
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Postmortem
Not sure increased Republican turnout would have made a difference:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/
2008/11/06/voter-turnout-
rate-not-as-high-as-in-68/
Part of the reason this year didn�t reach historic highs was because Republicans voted in lower numbers than expected. According to Gans, Republican turnout actually declined 1.3 percentage points from 2004. Meantime Democratic turnout was up 2.6 points.
The reason Obama won was a much better ground game. The McCain campaign was composed of Bush campaign vets who thought Palin could help them pull off another upset by driving conservatives in key states. Meanwhile Obama was running a campaign that had precinct-level organization. A rarity in today's Presidential campaigns. Two examples of how Obama's ground game was far superior:
1. Houdini Project
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/5/12333/6627
Everyone who worked at the polling location helped make what the Obama campaign dubbed the Houdini project (mentioned by Newsweek in its review <http://www.newsweek.com/id/167581/page/2> of election day) happen. We took the real-time results of who actually showed up at the polls and fed it back to the campaign so that they could adjust their GOTV calls and canvassing as the day wore on. Every time someone came in to vote, their names were entered into a computer system and their names disappeared or escaped, Houdini-like, from the call and walk lists.
2. Obama iPhone App:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/iphone
Call Friends: A great volunteering tool that lets you make a difference any time you want by talking to people you already know. Your contacts are prioritized by key battleground states, and you can make calls and organize results all in one place.
A Republican precinct organization could have won the election; but of course if there had been a precinct organization, the rapacious wolves would have been restrained. Once Newt was gone there was no control.
Obama will probably experience much the same problem that Carter did, and that Bush did: the greed of those who hold Congressional Power as a matter of right knows no bounds. I tried warning some of them (Republican leaders) several years ago that "Big Government Conservatism" was idiocy, but I was told that "social conservatism" would hold the base. When I pointed out this wasn't working I stopped getting invitations to lunch...
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Sharing the Wealth
Got this email which you and your readers may enjoy:
In a local restaurant my server had on a "Obama 08" tie, again I laughed as he had given away his political preference -- just imagine the coincidence.
When the bill came I decided not to tip the server and explained to him that I was exploring the Obama redistribution of wealth concept. He stood there in disbelief while I told him that I was going to redistribute his tip to someone who I deemed more in need -- the homeless guy outside. The server angrily stormed from my sight.
I went outside, gave the homeless guy $10 and told him to thank the server inside as I've decided he could use the money more. The homeless guy was grateful.
At the end of my rather unscientific redistribution experiment I realized the homeless guy was grateful for the money he did not earn, but the waiter was pretty angry that I gave away the money he did earn even though the actual recipient deserved money more. I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.
Francis
-- Francis Turner
But see below, next few letters.
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A few words about Elizabeth's Dole's defeat
Sir,
You wrote on Friday that
>Libby Dole, once considered Presidential material, could not hold her Senate seat. That too is interesting.
As a native North Carolinian who has lived here for fifty years, perhaps I could clarify this matter.
It is not especially surprising that Mrs Dole lost. She was not from North Carolina. Not really. Prior to running for the Senate, she had lived in DC (Actually, I think in the Watergate Hotel) for decades. When Jesse Helms retired, the GOP establishment leaned hard on Richard Vinroot, a conservative Republican with considerable experience in North Carolina politics, to quit the primary race so that Dole could have that seat. Her only qualification was that she was married to Bob Dole. She knew not this state. North Carolina was as alien to her as Outer Mongolia.
This explains the wretchedness of her re-election campaign. In blasting her opponent, Kay Hagen, for "Godless" fundraisers, she was trying to be Jesse Helms, without understanding who or what Helms really was. Helms was never so crude in his attacks. Contrary to myth, Helms, when he attacked usually attacked based on an opponents record and ideology., not ad hominem. Helms also was known for excellent constituent services, and was an advocate for North Carolina�s economic interests. His positions on various issues were also clear and very well known. (Whether one agreed with them or not.) Mrs Dole�s campaign ads, at least the ones I saw, consisted of ad hominem attacks on Kay Hagen, along with unsupported claims that Mrs Dole was "effective", although at what she would never say.
I should also point out that this state is very diverse, politically, racially, and economically. Even if Dole had known how to channel Jesse Helms, this state has changed more than she could possibly imagine since last she lived here. (In some ways for the better, though not in all.) Dole was an outsider who was rarely in North Carolina, and never of it. She crashed with friends while running for the Senate, in order to pretend residency, and she never owned a house here. She rarely visited North Carolina while she was our Senator, and her constituent services were widely known to be very poor. And if my life depended on it, I could not tell you her position on any issue.
Elizabeth Dole was a professional politician of the worst sort. She ran the kind of campaign one would expect of a woman whose knowledge of this state was limited to what she had heard at Washington cocktail parties, and perhaps from reading a few MSM articles about Jesse Helms, or watching old reruns of Andy Griffith. I�m not optimistic about the sort of votes Kay Hagen will cast in the Senate, given that she was recruited by Chuck Schumer to run for the job. But at least she will have the redeeming virtue of being from North Carolina. I should add that I am a conservative Republican who is truly appalled by what the Republican party foisted on North Carolina to represent us in the Senate.
North Carolina has, and will continue to have, some very good conservative politicians who believe in limited government, are good stewards of the taxpayer�s money, understand this state and its people, and who can be counted on to look out for their constituents. Perhaps next time the GOP will let one of them stand for the Senate.
Burke G Sheppard
I am hardly astonished. In 1996 Bob Dole was the only man Clinton could beat, but it was his turn, and he wanted that nomination. Libby Dole never forgave anyone who pointed that out, and she made it clear what she thought of such people who dared be right when truth was against her interest.
I have never been enamored of, or much in favor with, that wing of the Republican Party, and indeed the arrogance of the entitled Country Club Republicans has been a major theme of my political writing.
America needs a genuine two party system; but at the moment both parties are controlled by very possessive elitists: they have both been conspiracies against the American people. The problem was that the destruction of the Republicans who took over after Gingrich self destructed were opposed by something far worse. I spent much of my life in the Cold War times when the stakes were quite high -- if the USSR had been allowed to expand it would still be a mortal threat to the American people -- and the price of fighting the Cold War was to compromise with the Liberals.
The whole system needs restructuring. I think Gingrich is probably the only one who can do that: he can't do it perfectly, but I think of no one else just now. Party building is hard work.
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re: Sharing the Wealth
Mr. Turner's email (which he says he received, hopefully meaning that he didn't write it) is quite unfair. Taking $10 from a waiter who doesn't earn very damn much to begin with stings quite a bit- that's basically a full meal taken away. As a former waiter I know a bit about this.
Had he taken, say, a couple of dollars from someone like me, an engineer earning substantially more than a waiter, it would be more accurate. A couple of bucks isn't going to make or break me the same way it would a waiter. Hell, I might have given the couple of bucks away myself.
But more to the point- the author of that piece is focusing on one little part of a loosely sketched-out policy by Obama. For many of us the reason we voted for Obama is because he stayed very cool under an awful burden of pressure, given his now historic status, and because he's able to lead and inspire others and talk to our enemies, rather than rattling sabers at them. Personally I would far prefer to see someone with those qualities sitting in the Big Chair than someone who's known for his temper and refuses to talk to our enemies without setting up a load of pre-conditions.
Besides, if anything happens to Obama, I'd by far prefer the office to be taken over by Biden than by Palin. If nothing else, she demonstrated thoroughly that she's not good at thinking on her feet- and that's the last sort we really want in the Oval Office.
Maybe Obama's economic policies are flawed- I can't really express an opinion, as it's not my field of expertise- but penalizing a waiter for his political preferences in this manner is especially low and juvenile. The author of that blurb should be ashamed.
Paul Martin
Of course the real question is whether such decisions ought to be up to you, or to politicians and government.
Like you I hope that the Obama government will be what you would like it to be, but then I had hopes for Jimmy Carter: Southernor, Annapolis graduate, experienced in technical command, and an all around good man with good intentions. The outcome was not what anyone had hoped for, thanks in part to Carter and even more to the ravenous wolves.
Regarding Palin, I'd rather have her for President than any of the other three: she didn't help create this mess. The smartest people in the room, like Albright, can find ways to spend money and get us involved in messes that less gifted talents wouldn't even think of. What the presidency requires is good judgment, not the ability to detect over the telephone whether a caller is genuinely the President of France. We have the Agency for that, just as we have generals to fight wars; it's choosing which wars to fight that is important.
Bush had people smarter than the generals. They knew not only which war to fight but how to fight it. They knew how to restructure the Legions.
My guess is that I'd have done batter than Bush -- either Bush. I wouldn't have gone to war in the Middle East -- a ground war in Asia -- and I would have invested in energy independence instead. But whether I could get that policy adopted by the ravenous wolves is another story. I do know that Bush I fired every Reagan adherent he could manage, leaving us only Dan Quayle who was elected -- and Quayle had, in my judgment, better judgment than Bush. But that's another story.
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Iowa hawk does it again
Jerry,
http://iowahawk.typepad.com/
iowahawk/2008/11/election-analysis-
america-can-take-pride-in-this-
historic-inspirational-disaster.html
Phil
Well, it's clever. For amusement purposes (I hope).
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This began with a comment about Ron Paul and my answer.
>>But paul acted like a wingnut on several issues.<<
They all do.
But I see I didn't make my point clear. I don't care about Paul. I care about the "Ron Paul Army". It pre-existed Paul and it survives him. And it managed to put a lot of boots on the local grounds. The most of any candidate including B.O. As is already being revealed, B.O. was always the Beltway Establishment wearing a halloween mask.
The RP Army started self-organizing over a year ago using "Meet Up Groups". Every congressional district had one or more very active local RP meet-up groups by last December.
Where R-P failed his supporters was by not going independent about December 07. They could have easily put him on the ballot as an independent candidate and then had 10 months to campaign in the ways where they have the advantage. That is, strong organized local presence.
But RP was GOP loyal. Or perhaps afraid. And the GOP returned the favor by spitting in his supporters faces. The RP Army is still there. To rally them it just needs committed leadership that will go the distance, put some fire in their bellies for a long political insurgency. And a more coherent program.
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Campaign for Liberty Meetup Groups - Ron Paul: Campaign for Liberty Meetups
The Sarasota FL group's next meeting is November 10. And the next McCain meeting is how many universes from now? The Meetup Groups began over a year ago and were the major organizational method for RP's local campaign cadres.
The existing GOP organization has two components. First is the Country Club, their $ plus the resulting K Street lobbyists and their mass media nexus. The second component is the Southern Baptist Convention, the Assemblies of God and churches of similar theology.
The electoral map shows the future of this dispensation. Anywhere the SBC type churches are weak, so is the GOP locally. Such as the midwest, the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest.
If the local pillars aren't changed the results won't change either.
Your other correspondent is right about the struggle being mainly over suburbia.
The question is how to keep a core political group cohered between elections, which are very infrequent events. The NEA has its stream of tax dollars. The "Religious Right" base that provides GOP foot troops has its separate organizing structure. Here is both social and economic continuity.
What can another opposition use? Alternate education and alternate energy? Two subjects that have produce economic results and can be acted on at the local levels. There are likely other endeavors I've missed.
Good points. Taking back the government will require a ground army. See the Heinlein book on the subject. The strength of the Country Club Republicans has been in money: they hired "professionals" to do what the precinct captains used to do. The result sometimes worked, sometimes did not, but at least the pros knew not to try to run the show: they didn't think it was THEIR government.
Whether a new party can be built from the ground up or not will depend on how well we understand how things have changed since Robert wrote that book (which ought to be published with my notes fairly soon). Those who read this will know more than many. The question is how we can use the new technology to build a real organization. Political clubs no longer exist, at least in the real world; perhaps they can be built on line. We know that money can be raised on line.
I suspect that all this requires younger heads than mine. Think of me as the veteran who can help avoid some old but not obvious mistakes. Retired but still active. Like General Graham, whom I sorely miss.
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A Short reply
Dr. Pournelle,
I had to chuckle at the childish assertionmade by Mr. Short.
> Losing a whole generation is the legacy of the Rovian politics where you lie > and smear your opponents and whip up hatred among half the country for the > other half. It didn't sell this time, except among your readers.
I don't know Mr. Short, but he sounds like a young man who has not experienced the ebb and flow of politics. A more experienced or sober man would realize that quite a few of this "lost" generation will at some point vote for a Republican president.
As far as smearing your opponent and whipping up hatred, it is laughable to maintain that the Republicans have cornered the market. Sarah Palin has been attacked unmercifully for her family, her looks, her religion, and it has been frequently asserted that she is "not really a woman" (I'm sure I'm leaving out a few, but I don't frequent the frothing ultra-left sites). I challenge Mr. Short to find a smear at the national level as despicable as the infamous "General Betray Us" ad promoted by MoveOn.org and published in the NYT.
http://pol.moveon.org/petraeus.html
Politics is rough game. This round goes to the Democrats. The Republicans deserved to lose, but it was not a matter of virtue.
Steve Chu
He will not remember 300 psychiatrists solemnly proclaiming that Barry Goldwater was psychologically unfit to be President. I recall that one well...
The Republicans did not deserve to win (although some individual Republicans did). We will see if the nation deserves those who did win.
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Solar Cell Efficiency(see above)
Jerry,
On the recent remarks on the hype around announcements in solar power, yes, all too true and all too frequent. The issues in photovoltaics are well understood and many of the "new" ideas are reinventions (or re-publicizing) of things that were tried 20-30 years ago. Here's an interesting figure on the efficiencies of various photovoltaic technologies over time. The ones still going up fast are very expensive; the cheap approaches, notably the thin film cells (CdTE, CuInGaSe), show clear efficiency asymptotes.
Charles
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Votes Counted
Jerry:
Before you add up the total votes cast in November election, I suspect there are millions of absentee and provisional ballots nationwide that are going to take weeks to sort out and count because they have to hand-verify signatures.
Plus you might want to look for number who voted for somebody else for president since the 2004 numbers you listed show 1% voted for somebody else. Some folks voted for somebody else because they couldn't feel good about voting for either one and "None of the above" wasn't on the ballot.
In Orange County California, Obama and McCain have 872,781 votes combined from the 900,539 ballots counted so far. http://www.ocvote.com/live/gen2008/results.htm (Numbers will update each time they count another batch so it may be different when you check. Ditto for statewide. http://vote.ss.ca.gov/
(Don't ask me to explain while Orange County has official government websites in .com instead of .gov TLD.)
Its not going to change many results but until each ballot is counted, those people count as registered but not as having voted.
As an example, Boulder Colorado 55,000
<http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/
2008/nov/06/60000-ballots-remain-uncounted-
boulder/?partner=RSS>
In fact, LA Times says at least 1.6 million in just California.
<http://www.latimes.com/news/
local/la-me-uncounted6-2008nov06,0,1342985.story>
Meanwhile, we have gays taking to the streets. Wait till the average citizen figures out there is no money for Obama to keep his promises. Or worse, wait till he keeps some of them.
--Jim
