Mail 565 April 6 - 12, 2009 (original) (raw)
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
A Different Letter from England
Who owns England?
Dr Pournelle, I grew up and live in the UK and have been following your columns since the Byte days; more recently I�ll occasionally stop by and see what�s been posted on the various areas of your site � the Chaos Manor reviews always contain something worth reading, while the view and mail pages give an interesting perspective on events in the US and elsewhere.
Harry Erwin�s �Letter from England� is particularly intriguing, given the �as others see us� angle it offers � while I�ll wince from time to time, and hope some of the things he highlights don�t give too skewed an impression of everyday life here (often those things are raising headlines here because they�re viewed as exceptional and unreasonable to us, too) and raise an eyebrow at a few of his points (cycling�s a lower class activity in England? Everywhere I�ve lived it�s more a middle class/greener than thou activity, or class neutral), I won�t dispute that he generally describes things that are real issues of the day.
On the other hand I was boggled and pained to read the claims made in Monday 6th April�s �Who owns Minessota� mail, which confidently asserts (amongst part of an overall diatribe against a perceived Muslim takeover in Europe):
In "England", as Obama calls it, they have to tolerate a collection of odious practices, female genital mutilation, honor killings, rape, beatings, and such.
What? A claim that we tolerate � for any reason � such practices is quite simply utter nonsense, and easily disprovable by a cursory search of UK news sources. For example 2 minutes on a single news site gave these articles:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_yorkshire/7475541.stm (�Four jailed over 'honour' killing���This sort of behaviour in a civilised world cannot be tolerated.�)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/6907838.stm (�Life for 'honour killing' father��� This was a barbaric and callous crime�)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/oxfordshire/4520682.stm (�Jail for 'honour killing' family�)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/6907221.stm (�Woman held over child mutilation�)
I�ve no idea how accurate the allegations that mail makes against other European countries (or, for that matter, the potentially doomed Minnesota and wider US) are, but given the wildly incorrect things it�s said about England I�m not inclined to give them very much weight.
Dr Ian Kirk
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More authors turn to Web and print-on-demand publishing - CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/
04/06/print.on.demand.publishing/index.html
There are always successful cases, but most self publishing enterprises don't do anywhere near this well, and many cost a lot more than ever they earn.
Of course POD makes the process easier and cheaper for everyone including traditional publishers. Self published works still have the problem of publicity and professional editing.
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The End of the Affair
Jerry
Americans falling out of love with cars?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123880576525688797.html
"There is evidence that that love affair is fading, and that for more Americans the car is becoming a longevity-driven commodity like the Maytag washing machine. New-vehicle sales fell 38.4% in the first quarter compared with the year-ago period, according to Autodata Corp. A recently released annual survey from R.L. Polk & Co. found that the median age of American vehicles in operation has risen to a record 9.4 years from 9.2 the previous two years."
Apparently, it's not just the recession, either.
Perhaps cars have become too sophisticated. Time was, you might come in to my apartment and find the carburetor of my car sitting on my kitchen table, soaking in solvent. I bought the gasket kits at the local parts store, rebuilt them myself. Of course, I didn't have a whole lot of money, and my cars tended to be old clunkers, and I bought the cheapest of gasoline (2g cents a gallon or so). But I knew guys who would buy a new car and spend a fair amount of time under the hood. Heck, I knew guys whose engines were cleaner than their kitchens. Certainly cleaner than their bathrooms. Now, nobody knows what to make of that stuff. And there's no room to look.
The thrill is gone, honey . . .
Ed
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Sanity prevails?
This prosecutor should be fired.
http://arstechnica.com/
tech-policy/news/2009/03/
judge-blocks-teen-sexting-charges.ars
-- Roland Dobbins
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James Q. Wilson
The DNA of Politics Genes shape our beliefs, our values, and even our votes.
Winter 2009http://www.city-journal.org/
2009/19_1_dna.htmlChildren differ, as any parent of two or more knows. Some babies sleep through the night, others are always awake; some are calm, others are fussy; some walk at an early age, others after a long wait. Scientists have proved that genes are responsible for these early differences. But people assume that as children get older and spend more time under their parents� influence, the effect of genes declines. They are wrong.
For a century or more, we have understood that intelligence is largely inherited, though even today some mistakenly rail against the idea and say that nurture, not nature, is all. Now we know that much of our personality, too, is inherited and that many social attitudes have some degree of genetic basis, including our involvement in crime and some psychiatric illnesses. Some things do result entirely from environmental influences, such as whether you follow the Red Sox or the Yankees (though I suspect that Yankee fans have a genetic defect). But beyond routine tastes, almost everything has some genetic basis. And that includes politics.
When scholars say that a trait is �inherited,� they don�t mean that they can tell what role nature and nurture have played in any given individual. Rather, they mean that in a population�say, a group of adults or children�genes explain a lot of the differences among individuals.
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What Has US embargo of Cuba Achieved?
Jerry,
The US embargo of Cuba has considerably slowed down the economic development of the beaches of Cuba which has had the effect of creating a marine reserve around most of the island. This marine reserve has continued to restock the marine flora and fauna of Key West and the other 'downstream' islands.
On this basis, a continued embargo _may_ be in US interests.
Best,
Robert Peters
I had not thought of that aspect. Thanks.
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Golden lies, too good to ignore
Jerry
It turns out that 90% of weapons used in the Mexican drug cartel wars did not come from the US:
http://www.strategypage.com/
htmw/htmurph/articles/20090405.aspx
The truth is more complex, as usual.
Ed
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Heinlein Colorado House PM 6/52 Article
Dear Doctor Pournelle,
Here is a link to the June, 1952 Popular Mechanics illustrated article on the then recently completed Heinlein Colorado Springs house. The current house on the at the same location was heavily rebuilt by the third owner, ca. 1995, as related in the accompanying commentary on the PM article::
"The house was sold when the Heinlein's moved to Santa Cruz in the mid-1960s, and its third owner bought it around 1995. These owners substantially rebuilt the house, making it much larger, and reports are that little of Heinlein's original work survives.
One thing that does survive is the bomb shelter, built in early 1963 (after Heinlein announced they had no shelter at SeaCon, Labor Day 1962). The house, city, and bomb shelter are featured prominently in the novel Farnham's Freehold.:"
http://www.nitrosyncretic.com/rah/pm652-art-hi.html
Mystery writer and Heinlein fan Robert Crais reportedly visited the house in 1998, and found little left of the original other than the aforementioned shelter.
By the way, whatever happened to the even more interesting Santa Cruz, California "Bonny Doon" house? Is it owned by the Heinlein estate or family? It really ought have been turned into a museum, maintained as it was "in the day". The State of California has done that with a home that Eugene O'Neill lived in for a few years late in his career. Heinlein deserves at least that much for his work. Personally, I would not trade him for three O'Neill's, but that's my own taste for optimism and common sense showing.
Petronius (as in "The Door Into Summer")
Thanks. Both the Bonny Doon house and the house in Carmel where Robert died were sold without publicity, and so far as I know no one kept track of them. The Bonny Doon house was designed by Heinlein and had many interesting convenience features, including a really well done guest house. One feature of the guest house was a list: you were to list anything you had wanted that wasn't there. It would be there the next time you came.
The last time we visited them in the Bonny Doon house, Ginny was up on the roof clearing off dead leaves in preparation for possible brush fires. The place had become too large for them to keep up, Ginny did not want live in help, and they sold the place and moved to Carmel, where Robert died a few years later. Ginny later moved to a retired Navy community in Jacksonville, Florida.
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US manufacturing is not in decline
Hi Jerry,
I was going to comment about injection molding but someone else beat me to it. I do some work in that industry and do not see why environmental issues would be a concern. They are working almost exclusively with plastic pellets.
I do agree that mold costs from China are jaw droppingly low. I recently found out how much a client was paying for water bottle molds and it was about half of the lowest I would have guessed. That is just machining so no serious environmental issues there, either. More importantly, turnaround time, even counting shipping from China, is about half what it takes from US mold makers. I suspect that if a US company could better the Chinese turnaround time, they might be able to capture the business even if the mold cost were several times more. The ability to get a set of molds several days earlier might be worth 10's of thousands of dollars per day to the molder
Re manufacturing jobs in general: There seems to be a consensus among many that the US is losing manufacturing jobs overseas. This is just not true. It is easy to find figures for employment in manufacturing in the US. The Statistical Abstract of the US gives the numbers in table 971
1990- 109mm 2000- 131mm 2007-138mm
Dollar value of shipments gives us another lead. Manufacturer's shipments (table 974) shows:
1992 - 3TR(earliestshown)2000−3TR (earliest shown) 2000 - 3TR(earliestshown)2000−4TR 2007 - $5TR
That is current dollars so some, but not all, of the increase will be inflation.
I'll bet a dollar that I could go back and look at data since the 50's and find a similar trend.
Next time someone tells you that manufacturing is on the decline in the US, ask them by what measurement or metric then ask them for the numbers.
If you publish this, feel free to include my name and website or not as you see fit.
Best, John R Henry CPP
<http://www.changeover.com/>
"All progress is made by a lazy person looking for an easier way." - Lazarus Long
True enough: what has declined is manufacturing jobs. Productivity has greatly increased, meaning more stuff manufactured with fewer workers, so more workers were employed in services, including selling things to each other. The fact remains that much of the US economy became a process of opening containers of stuff and paying for them by borrowing money against real property. So long as property values kept going up, this seemed to be working.
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Scientists create fuel from African crop waste
Bananas are a staple crop of Rwanda. The fruit is eaten raw, fried and baked - it even produces banana beer and wine. Around 2 million tons are grown each year but the fruit is only a small percentage of what the plant produces. The rest - skins, leaves and stems - is left to rot as waste.
Now scientists at The University of Nottingham are looking at ways to use that waste to produce fuel, developing simple methods of producing banana briquettes that could be burnt for cooking and heating. PhD student Joel Chaney in the Faculty of Engineering has developed a method of producing the briquettes using minimal tools and technology, which could be used in communities all over Africa.
http://www.physorg.com/news158238090.html
Bill Shields
Bio fuels may be competitive in tropical areas. Burning food is not a good thing to do, but bio waste is always a good candidate in a low tech economy. When you have very little, almost anything helps.
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Virus battery could power cars, electronic devices
For the first time, MIT researchers have shown they can genetically engineer viruses to build both the positively and negatively charged ends of a lithium-ion battery.
http://www.physorg.com/news157900776.html
Bill Shields
The biology revolution is just beginning. For more, http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/
juan_enriquez_wants_to_grow_energy.html . Think of this speech as a stimulus to more thinking. Whether his stabilization of oil prices is a good idea or not is worth discussion.
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Europe's biggest wind farm planned in Sweden
Plans to build the biggest wind farm in Europe are underway in Sweden after winning approval from a local county administrative board on Monday, officials said.
http://www.physorg.com/news158246291.html
Bill Shields
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Defense budget and military history
Jerry,
A few thoughts on the defense budget changes outlined today.
1. We are no longer going to prepare for a battle for national survival against a near-peer or symmetric opponent.
2. Real asymmetric threats such as theater ballistic missiles will not be countered by expensive systems (ABL), and the principle behind this decision will carry over to other expensive programs that were generated to counter a specific threat and which have no inexpensive alternative.
3. Pretend math stating the F-22 *should* have a theoretical kill ratio of 32-1 wins over real math that points out the F-22 carries only 8 missiles, each with a Pk of less than 1, so while our handful of F-22s are on the ground re-arming the remaining few hundred enemy aircraft will bomb them out of existence, even if they are 2-seat ultralights manned by a pilot and a gunner carrying a couple of grenades and an AK-47. The F-35 carries even fewer missiles and lacks all-aspect stealth, but in the absence of F-22s may have to operate in an environment dominated by next-generation SAMs with ranges well over 100 miles. The latest generation of SAMs and radar will allegedly scoff at previous-generation stealth and can cue/guide off of networked sensor data, so presenting a stealthy aspect to the launch site or primary guidance radar is no guarantee that another networked sensor is not �looking up your skirt�, so to speak. One more reason why the F-35 is not even remotely close to being a viable alternative to the F-22 in the role of achieving air supremacy in a hostile environment.
4. Obama�s firmly stated goal of 25% reduction in defense spending and nuclear disarmament, unilaterally if necessary, was not merely a campaign promise to be broken later.
5. We will not be maintaining a military capable of defeating a symmetric opponent, while at the same time we are eliminating most of our nuclear deterrent (announced a few days ago in addition to the campaign video outlining Obama�s defense vision).
6. History has many examples of what happens when both deterrent and main defense forces are simultaneously reduced or do not provide a credible threat/deterrent.
7. It was noted by Gen Schwartzkopf that the primary difference between himself and Saddam Hussein is that Saddam Hussein was not a military historian.
Does President Obama understand what he has done, from a historical perspective? The flip side is of course the question of if any of our opponents are led by military historians?
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You can't handle the truth
http://www.thedailybeast.com/
blogs-and-stories/2009-04-06/obamas-bad-debt/
A fascinating and disturbing (to me) look into the mind of the liberal intelligentia. The following 2 quotes appear in the same article:
"(But) Obama never answered the question of how his epic debt can be squared with his call for generational responsibility. He can�t, because it can�t."
"Obama�s intellectual honesty is a political asset."
Steve Chu
It does appear that we are asking our grandchildren to pay for all this; it will take a really great economy to let them do it.
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Boffins list sci-fi words which wormed their way into dictionary
Jerry
The Oxford University Press has come up with a list of nine words that originated in science fiction, but which have now become part of the language of science:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/04/07/science_fiction_words/
Ed
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IBM Fellow: Moore's Law defunct
R. Colin Johnson (04/07/2009 6:05 PM EDT) URL: http://www.eetimes.com/
showArticle.jhtml?articleID=216403284PORTLAND. Ore. � An IBM researcher says Moore's Law is running out of gas.
IBM Fellow Carl Anderson, who oversees physical design and tools in its server division, predicted during the recent International Symposium on Physical Design 2009 conference the end of continued exponential scaling down of the size and cost of semiconductors. The end of the era of Moore's Law, Anderson declared, is at hand.
Anderson was one of 65 semiconductor gurus speaking at the conference, which also unveiled a new method for synthesizing critical paths, a host of analog design innovations and a new twist on the annual physical design contest.
The IBM Fellow observed that like the railroad, automotive and aviation industries before it, the semiconductor industry has matured to the point that the pace of continued innovation is slowing.
"There was exponential growth in the railroad industry in the 1800s; there was exponential growth in the automobile industry in the 1930s and 1940s; and there was exponential growth in the performance of aircraft until [test pilots reached] the speed of sound. But eventually exponential growth always comes to an end," said Anderson.
A generation or two of continued exponential growth will likely continue only for leading-edge chips such as multicore microprocessors, but more designers are finding that everyday applications do not require the latest physical designs, Anderson said.
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