Current Chaos Manor mail (original) (raw)
Sunday, March 4, 2010
More on education...
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north831.html
" The only way to generate increased [teacher] performance is to structure the incentive system in such a way that the mean is raised. This means abolishing tenure and seniority, thereby removing the safety net for failure. Then find ways to give the best performers a piece of the economic action for increased productivity. If a man can increase the institution's net income, give him a larger percentage of this when his output increases. This is the reverse incentive system of the graduated income tax, which is a disincentive system.
"We understand this economic incentive system when it comes to business, yet most people fail to understand it in the field of education. They have been taught by bureaucrats in the tax-funded education system that profit-seeking schools are antithetical to education.
"The University of Phoenix has 500,000 students enrolled today who think the conventional view is wrong.
"What makes the difference? The University of Phoenix is owned by investors who profit when the school profits. They lose when the school loses. This raises price tag on envy. It raises the price tag on regression to the mean. A law of economics takes over: "When price rises, less is demanded."
Charles Brumbelow
==
Reading list and grade 'levelling'
Dr. Pournelle,
I thought that this link, with the accompanying story might interest you: http://home.comcast.net/~ngiansante
The link is to a page that lists approved book lists appropriate to a standardized spread of elementary school reading levels. The good part of the story is that my 8-year-old granddaughter, due to her Mother's hard work in teaching at home, "tests out" in her elementary school at the highest reading level for her grade. The frustrating part is that the school district for the mid-western city where they live will not support advanced reading programs beyond the maximum level appropriate to the grade level, in part because materials at a higher level may not be 'appropriate for the age' group. It is highly discouraged for parents to supply reading material at a higher level (or is not listed) to their children, or to attempt to teach them to an advanced level beyond the recognized, standardized levels.
I believe this supports several of your assertions in re standardized testing and 'no child left behind.'
The amusing part (in my mildly cynical way) was that my granddaughter, prompted and shocked by her reading at an 'appropriate' level, asked my son-in-law's receptionist if she knew that some people called female dogs bitches -- much to my daughter's embarrassment.
Education is a dangerous thing.
Happily, my granddaughter has a love of reading and needs little encouragement. She has always had a great interest in many subjects and is often 'beyond her grade level' in many subjects. My daughter is finding (as we did with her siblings) that advanced instruction at home may be the only way for the girl to proceed at her own rate.
Cheers,
============================
'We live in a gangster state, and our days of laughing at other countries are over.'
Yes, it's Rolling Stone, and there's some 'adult' language, but this article is pretty much spot-on (I know the area well, and what I've heard privately matches with the details of this story):
<http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/
story/32906678/looting_main_street/print>
Roland Dobbins
============
Repression 2.0.
<http://www.hoover.org/publications/
policyreview/89175117.html>
-- Roland Dobbins
==========
The Navy is still funding Bussard's fusion idea,
Jerry
The Navy's funding electrostatic confinement fusion:
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/
archive/2010/03/23/2237165.aspx
Bussard's old idea.
Ed
============
EPA
Jerry,
The next battle has begun.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/04/02
/states-sue-epa-agency-issues-climate-change
-regulations/?test=latestnews
The battle over global warming escalated this week with the Environmental Protection Agency issuing its first rules ever on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions even as more states lined up to legally challenge the new regulations.
On Thursday, the heads of the Transportation Department and the EPA signed final rules setting fuel efficiency standards for model years 2012-2016, with a goal of achieving by 2016 the equivalent of 35.5 miles per gallon combined for cars and trucks, an increase of nearly 10 mpg over current standards set by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
The rules come after 12 states joined petitions filed by Virginia, Alabama and Texas against the EPA for ruling in December that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide endanger human health -- a ruling that cleared the path for the agency to start issuing mandatory regulations to reduce them.
The EPA has responded to the lawsuits with a statement saying the "evidence of and threats posed by a changing climate are right before our eyes."
J
============
: A global warming heretic
Hi, Jerry!
"Global warming heretic" refers to Willis Eschenbach's description of himself in this post <http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/31/18010/> at the Watts Up With That? blog.
It's a very long post, but worth reading.
(quote) Question 1. Does the earth have a preferred temperature which is actively maintained by the climate system?
To me this is the question that we should answer first. I believe that the answer is yes. Despite millennia-long volcanic eruptions, despite being struck by monstrous asteroids, despite changes in the position of the continents, as near as we can tell the average temperature of the earth has only varied by about plus or minus three percent in the last half-billion years. Over the last ten thousand years, the temperature has only varied by plus or minus one percent. Over the last 150 years, the average temperature has only varied by plus or minus 0.3%. For a system as complex and ever-changing as the climate, this is nothing short of astounding.
Before asking any other questions about the climate, we must ask why the climate has been so stable. Until we answer that question, trying to calculate the climate sensitivity is an exercise in futility.
I have explained in �The Thermostat Hypothesis� what I think is the mechanism responsible for this unexplained stability. My explanation may be wrong, but there must be some mechanism which has kept the global temperature within plus or minus 1% for ten thousand years.
I am, however, definitely in the minority with this opinion. (end quote)
(quote) Question 5. Are humans responsible for global warming?
This is another trick question that often shows up on polls. The question suffers from two problems. First is the lack of a time period discussed above. The second is the question of the amount of responsibility. Generally, the period under discussion is the post-1900 warming. So let me rephrase the question as �Are humans responsible for some part of the late 20th century warming?�
To this question I would say �Yes�. Again, there is widespread scientific agreement on that simplistic question, but as usual, the devil is in the details discussed in Question 4. (end quote)
(quote) Question 8. Does the evidence from the climate models show that humans are responsible for changes in the climate?
This is another trick question. Climate models do not produce evidence. Evidence is observable and measurable data about the real world. Climate model results are nothing more than the beliefs and prejudices of the programmers made tangible. While the results of climate models can be interesting and informative, they are not evidence. (end quote)
(quote) Question 14. Regarding climate, what action (if any) should we take at this point?
I disagree with those who say that the �precautionary principle� means that we should act now. I detail my reasons for this assertion at �Climate Caution and Precaution�. At that page I also list the type of actions that we should be taking, which are �no regrets� actions. These are actions which will have beneficial results whether or not the earth is warming.
So that is where I stand on the climate questions. I think that the earth actively maintains a preferred temperature. I think that man is having an effect on local climate in various places, but that globally man�s effect is swamped by the regulating action of clouds and thunderstorms. I think that the local effect is mainly through LU/LC changes and soot. I think that the climate regulating mechanism is much stronger than either of these forcings and is stronger than CO2 forcing. I think that at this point the actions we should take are �no regrets� actions.
Does that make me a �denier�? And if so, what am I denying?
Finally, I would like to invite Dr. Judith Curry in particular, and any other interested scientists, to publicly answer these same questions here on Watts Up With That. There has been far too much misunderstanding of everyone�s position on these important issues. A clear statement of what each of us thinks about the climate and the science will go a long way towards making the discussion both more focused and more pleasant, and perhaps it will tend to heal the well-earned distrust that many have of climate science. (end quote)
As you can tell, given the question-and-answer format, I've left out quite a bit. You can read the rest of the questions and answers at the blog. <http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/31/18010/>
===========
'If the nation went to war today in a cyberwar, we would lose."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142
4052702303960604575157703702712526.html
"'If the nation went to war today in a cyberwar, we would lose. We're the most vulnerable. We're the most connected. We have the most to lose.' Former Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell delivered that bracing statement at a recent Senate hearing on cybersecurity."
Charles Brumbelow
=============
Government Lotteries - Taxes on the Math Impaired...
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/dyke5.1.1.html
"Gambling is a moron�s retirement plan, and it is certainly not our positive obligations to help morons. Yet, unlike the casinos, what is it about state lotteries that make these acts so contemptible?
"By means of mandatory K-12 drill-and-kill public education, the state ill-educates the public into a pool of mathematical ignorance. Most high school students graduate without a single course in probability/statistics. Sure, in seventh grade they learn about the probability of pulling an ace out of a deck of cards, but permutations and combinations like that needed to calculate the odds of winning the mega-millionaire jackpot is only taught to the top percentile of high school students, which is usually recommended as an elective, not as a course of learning.
"How convenient.
"The state not only promotes the public�s ignorance in probabilities, but then maximizes that ignorance via a monopoly on gambling."
Charles Brumbelow
=============
Subject: It�s over: MPs say the special relationship with US is dead
BRITAIN�S special relationship with the US � forged by Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt in the second world war � no longer exists, says a committee of influential MPs.
Instead, America�s relationship with Britain is no more special than with its other main allies, according to a report by the Commons foreign affairs committee published today.
The report also warns that the perception of the UK after the Iraq war as America�s �subservient poodle� has been highly damaging to Britain�s reputation and interests around the world. The MPs conclude that British prime ministers have to learn to be less deferential to US presidents and be �willing to say no� to America.
...
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/
news/politics/article7078844.ece
KEG
============
'Hart said commissioners thought that Christmas has become so recognized and secular as to have been rendered virtually religion-neutral. Good Friday, on the other hand, is strictly a Christian observance, he said.'
<http://www.qctimes.com/news/local/
article_b8abeaa6-3b66-11df-8a51-001
cc4c03286.html>
- Roland Dobbins
============
Welcome to the Asian Century.
"I can't do that business. That's the way they want to do it, so I can't do it."
<http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62S34020100329>
Roland Dobbins
=============
Healthcare & politics
Hi Jerry:
I am a Platinum subscriber and have read your columns since early Byte days. I have always enjoyed your technology stories and writings.
There are many aspects of your political leanings which I agree with. However, I also fundamentally believe that there is a role for government in the provision of access to healthcare. Notice that I didn�t say provide, I said providing access�
I travel constantly all over the world for my job as a senior sales executive for a worldwide technology company. The U.S. is the only industrial democracy that doesn�t guarantee access to healthcare. It does cost us; both in terms of those who go to emergency rooms for the flu, and those who finally go to seek medical care that care ends up being incredibly expensive because they had no access to preventative or early solutions to their medical problem. As you are aware, we do not have the best healthcare system in the world, as evidenced by our level of infant mortality, our terrible levels of obesity, and our mediocre increase in lifespan.
The current healthcare reform law is certainly not perfect. Neither was Social Security, nor Medicare. And, yet, today, Medicare is government provided healthcare at an administrative cost vastly less than our current private system. And, remember, the new plan isn�t a government take-over of healthcare, most healthcare will still be provided through private insurance companies.
I am scared to death of the unbridled expansion of government. I live in California � enough said. But, I also believe there are things that government must provide its citizens, and access to basic healthcare is one of them. So, let�s work together to try and improve the new system, versus simply saying �repeal or die.�
Alex Thurber
The problem is that there is no way we can afford the Act we just passed; moreover there may be something wrong in the morals department when we shift enormous costs onto our children. By what right do I get to have you pay for my health care? Of course I try to earn your subscription, but that is not quite the same thing; I don't just vote to have you pay me.
For a man to love his country his country ought to be lovely, and that does mean that we don't want people starving in the streets; but on the other hand we can't afford to send everyone to the Mayo Clinic, either. As to Social Security and Medicare, they are not going to last without major changes; there just isn't the money, particularly in these economic times, and the burden on the economy is not insignificant.
The major health care reform we need is to couple the recipient of the service with paying for the service. I wrote a good bit about that in the 1990's. I also wrote on the subject when Newt was Minority Whip: one solution is Health Care Savings Accounts. The money goes into an account. You spend it -- or don't -- on medical care. After a number of years anything left in there is yours. This has the merit of making it cost you something to use medical services. Reasonable co-payments -- even if they're only a few dollars -- will help. The point is that the demand for a free good expands without limit because there is no incentive not to use the services.
There are other possible reforms. They are not "new" ideas in that they have been around a long time. The Clintons had no interest in them when Newt was Speaker, and that kind of reform couldn't get through the Senate. Kennedy wasn't interested. And so forth.
As to private insurance companies, if they truly have to take anyone who applies and all at the same premium, there will soon be no such companies. Imagine a life insurance policy that they have to sell you without regard to the "pre-existing" condition, such as age. I'd love to buy a $20 million policy for the price I would have paid for it when I was twenty five.
=====================
The current page will always have the name currentmail.html and may be bookmarked. For previous weeks, go to the MAIL HOME PAGE.
FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE
If you are not paying for this place, click here...
IF YOU SEND MAIL it may be published; if you want it private SAY SO AT THE TOP of the mail. I try to respect confidences, but there is only me, and this is Chaos Manor. If you want a mail address other than the one from which you sent the mail to appear, PUT THAT AT THE END OF THE LETTER as a signature. In general, put the name you want at the end of the letter: if you put no address there none will be posted, but I do want some kind of name, or explicitly to say (name withheld).
Note that if you don't put a name in the bottom of the letter I have to get one from the header. This takes time I don't have, and may end up with a name and address you didn't want on the letter. Do us both a favor: sign your letters to me with the name and address (or no address) as you want them posted. Also, repeat the subject as the first line of the mail. That also saves me time.
I try to answer mail, but mostly I can't get to all of it. I read it all, although not always the instant it comes in. I do have books to write too... I am reminded of H. P. Lovecraft who slowly starved to death while answering fan mail.
Day-by-day...
Monday -- Tuesday -- Wednesday -- Thursday -- Friday -- Saturday -- Sunday
Search engine:
or the freefind search
Boiler Plate:
If you want to PAY FOR THIS PLACE I keep the latest information HERE. MY THANKS to all of you who sent money. Some of you went to a lot of trouble to send money from overseas. Thank you! There are also some new payment methods. I am preparing a special (electronic) mailing to all those who paid: there will be a couple of these. I have thought about a subscriber section of the page. LET ME KNOW your thoughts.
.
If you subscribed:
CLICK HERE for a Special Request.
If you didn't and haven't, why not?
If this seems a lot about paying think of it as the Subscription Drive Nag. You'll see more.
Patron Subscription:
FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE
Search: type in string and press return.
For platinum subscription:
For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:
= = = = = = = = = =
For a Regular Subscription click here:
= = = = = = = =
Strategy of Technology in pdf format:
To order the nose pump I recommend, click on the banner below:
Entire Site Copyright, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 by Jerry E. Pournelle. All rights reserved.