View 542 October 27 - November 2, 2008 (original) (raw)
Thursday, October 30, 2008
I suppose it will be called another racist attack, but I was struck with the appropriateness of McCain's remark that Obama's big medial splash last night was paid by broken promises. Of course I am no fan of campaign contribution "reform", but a system that lets one candidate raise money while the other is capped is insane. Obama promised -- well a campaign promise -- that he would accept public financing. I hate the whole notion of Federal financing of campaigns -- the Framer must be spinning like tops -- but it does seem to me that once one accepts it, one should not be allowed to change one's mind. Ah. Well.
Yesterday a shelf fell off one wall in my office. Actually, it fell Tuesday while I was at PDC. Anyway, yesterday I had to go to the hardware store for brackets, come back and put up the shelf, and reshelve the books. In theory that shelf is reserved for what I am reading now, but for the last year I haven't been myself and I sort of forgot what was on that shelf. The result is that I found a bunch of books I had put up to be read, and then promptly forgot about. One was a Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment, and I thought I'd start reading it, and as a result the main thing I got done yesterday was getting that shelf back in place.
I had intended to write column draft on Hailstorm -- oops, Windows Azure and Cloud Computing. Well, I did manage to read a new book on Cloud Computing, getting me sort of caught up on the concept, I discovered there wasn't much new to talk about: that is, I discussed it all in Hailstorm and Network Computing days. I knew back then that the hardware wasn't up to the concept, but I also knew that it certainly would be within 15 - 20 years. And lo! That's where we are now. The hardware is mostly up to the job. Anyway I'll try to do a column segment on Cloud Computing and Azure.
I didn't watch Obama's infomercial last night. The papers this morning didn't seem to be much impressed with his accomplishment: did he get enough return for what it cost (not just in money) to make it worth while? I would say not, but not having seen it I can't be definitive.
What I have never seen from Obama is real specifics on what he intends to do other than expand the power of the state. He will go line by line through the budget and decide what is and is not working; given that this is impossible -- have you seen the budget? -- what does he mean? On what criteria will he decide if a program needs elimination or reform or is working pretty well now? I have not heard anything that would tell me that; does anyone know? (I am not fishing for diatribes. It's a bit late for those anyway.)
One scenario is Pelosi with a majority, Reid with a filibuster-proof majority, and Obama bringing in the former chief of Freddie Mac to be the budget director. Obama doesn't actually say he is not a Socialist as far as I can see: he does ridicule those who say he is. My guess is that he's a clever Chicago politician and has no real principles other than spend and spend, elect and elect. Can he build a Chicago style political machine in the US? It will be interesting to find out. The country is broke, and taxes are pretty high now; we're not restricted by deflation; we are not crucifying mankind on a Cross of Gold; we already have farm subsidies. We aren't likely to have Department of Agriculture inspectors coming to family farms to determine how many little pigs of a litter must be killed to keep prices up and what proportion of the milk had to be poured out on the ground (yes, that happened; farmers with fewer kids to feed had to kill a larger portion of the litter, too). We already have most of Roosevelt's 'reforms'.
This will be in the column: those interested in what Roosevelt tried in his first administration and why it didn't work will find Amity Shlaes The Forgotten Man. I've been reading it on the Kindle and it reads well. I say it here because it took ten years and World War II to get us out of the Great Depression. It may be that we won't bottom out as hard. But much of what is proposed was tried without much success and may be argued as having made things worse.
The Congress is probably lost, and the Republicans deserve defeat - although the nation doesn't deserve huge Democratic majorities. Even with veto-proof majorities, a mixed government with McCain as President would probably do less harm. Neither McCain nor Obama may 'deserve' election, but I do not think the US deserves an all powerful Obama.
Whatever happens we seem to be living in interesting times.
There is considerable mail of importance.
=================
Another reputable scientist predicts global cooling, not warming:
http://icecap.us/index.php/
go/joes-blog/
global_cooling_is_here_
evidence_for_predicting_global_cooling_for_the_next_
Complete with charts and arguments. I have not read it in detail, but I would be astonished if it proves the case -- I don't think any climate modeler can prove a case now -- but it is certainly as compelling as most global warming predictions.
And if our fate must be either warmer or colder, I'll take warmer every time. Colder brings famine.