View 568 April 27 - May 3, 2009 (original) (raw)
Monday, April 27, 2009
The SFWA annual business meeting was last Saturday, and Sunday I had lunch with my agent before Niven and I went over to the LA Book Faire at UCLA.
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Thought for the day: is swine flu caused by porkulus?
On a more serious note: I have had little comment on the current administration's economic policies, in part because there's nothing to say that others aren't already saying, and in part because I really don't wish the nation ill. It is also depressing. In 100 days we seem to have spent more money than anyone ever has in the history of the Republic. This enormous spike in spending and the national debt will have to be paid somehow. The claim is that we will grow the economy to do that. Perhaps, but the deficit financing has often been paid by taxing savings and fixed incomes by the process known as inflation. The results of that have never been beneficial, and sometimes have been disastrous.
What is certain is that the government now controls far more of the economy than it ever has in peace time. We have not yet got to rationing, price controls, wage controls, etc. Perhaps we never will. We do have a larger proportion of people on the government payroll than we have thought needed, but that too may be a good trend.
Several correspondents keep assuring me that the path to socialism is easy and pleasant, and the result will be what Europe has been doing for the past century. They're way ahead of us over there and it's time for the United States to catch up. All is going to be well. Communism came in by revolution, never by constitutional vote, and things are going to be just fine as we begin to civilize as Europe has.
After all, no country has ever followed the classis pattern described since Aristotle in which the have nots voted themselves benefits to be paid for by those who have, resulting in the destruction of the society.
Yes, I have heard of Communism -- as something resulting from revolution or foreign conquest, but never, ever from "creeping socialism" in a republican setting; the social democracies of Europe are not one step closer to it than they were 50 years ago.
They may not be one step closer to communism but they are certainly some steps farther from what we used to call a free society. Go back through the Letters from England for examples. For those who want to know more about the classical arguments against direct democracy, I recommend Parkinson's Evolution of Political Thought; but then I have recommended that before.
The news is full of praise for the coolness and brilliance of the current administration, and how we need to have patience while trusting in the brain trust. I fear I have seen no evidence of this, and in fact most of the policies of the Administration seem to come from the Congressional side. I had not heard that Pelosi and Reid were thought to be especially brilliant. And I have seen few signs that the policies adopted are going to grow our way out of the enormous debts we have acquired in the last 100 days. What I have seen is momentum toward greater expansion of government obligations while imposing ever heavier burdens on those who produce energy. What I have seen and see now is a looming energy crisis.
The correlation between productivity and energy cost is high and negative. Most "green" energy measures make economic sense only when oil prices are above $150 a barrel. Oil isn't going to be at that price unless we make it so by taxes. Meanwhile what seems to be in the wind is a war on coal in the United States (but not in China -- perhaps we can export coal to China to pay some of the debt?) while in practice ignoring the nuclear option.
We do live in interesting times.
I remind you that despair is a sin.
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I have not ignored the torture discussions -- if they can be called discussions -- but I haven't got into the matter because I see so little upside to it. I suppose at some point I'll have to comment, but my immediate reaction is to ask what the objective is? Is our goal to see that nothing of the sort ever happens again? Vengeance against those who relied on legal opinions? Vengeance against those who gave those opinions? Vengeance against elected officials of the previous administration?
If the goal is to end torture and anything that might be construed as torture, and do so forever or at least until the nation changes its mind, this can be accomplished by Congress. I am certain the President would sign such a bill. It can provide criminal penalties, and be quite specific in what practices are forbidden. There is no need for this to be retroactive.
If the goal is vengeance, then something else is needed; it also opens a more serious question of loyalties. History shows that such questions are sometimes best not opened.
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It's not a matter of great importance, but I understand there is a sort of on-going Turing Test on Second Life. I thought I would go have a look, only to discover that I have entirely forgotten my Second Life User Name and Password, and my cursory efforts to discover them produced not a clue. Apparently I didn't even write them down, or if I did I've lost where, so I have not the foggiest notion. To make things worse, the only copy of Second Life I can find is on a computer that's semi-retired. It would make sense to try Second Life on Emily, my Intel Extreme Quad, just to see how well it works on that; it has certainly been long enough since I was last on there (at least a year, perhaps longer).
If someone out there is familiar with Second Life administration, I'd appreciate advice: should I just start over, or should I download Second Life onto Emily and make some attempt at finding out what my previous account was? When I first got on, I had considerable help in the form of gifts of money and clothing and gadgets which might be worth recovering, but then again they might not be.
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