View 674 May 9 - 15, 2011 (original) (raw)
Monday, May 9, 2011
We now know the official story:
Months ago (in August, 2010) we discovered that Osama bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad, a military town in the foothill region northeast of Islamabad. It took months to become certain of this, and all during that time the secret that we were interested in the region was meticulously kept from most of the White House Staff, the Congress, the CIA except for those who needed to know and there were few of those, the Director of National Intelligence (who seems to have been completely out of the story, and whose job and staff seem increasingly less useful), most of the US military, most of the State Department, and everyone in the Middle East.
The government of Pakistan, meanwhile, is convinced that bin Laden is hiding in the caves in the tribal areas, or has gone to earth somewhere else, but it has no suspicion that he is in hiding in their military retirement city. They have none of the clues that led the US to Abbottabad. The CIA investigates -- it is certainly reasonable to assume that at least a couple of CIA tourist teams will take their honeymoon vacations in scenic Abbottabad -- but that draws no attention from Pakistani authorities. Bounty hunters are looking for the biggest bounty ever, but none are drawn to Abbottabad. No one drops any hints to bounty hunters. The compound remains not only safe, but pretty well left alone by the Pakistani security apparatus while the CIA seeks clues to resolve the ambiguities.
The President was decisive from the beginning. He ordered mission plans to be made for the contingency that this was, in fact, Public Enemy Number One. Although the ambiguity of just who was hiding in that compound was never resolved to a certainty, eventually there was enough resolution to warrant an armed expedition from a US base in Afghanistan fairly deep into the sovereign territory of Pakistan. This was done without either the knowledge or consent of the government of Pakistan.
Two stealth helicopters containing about 40 armed warriors crossed from Afghanistan into Abbottabad. Cruising in the dead of night they came into the city and settled in over a walled compound a couple of miles from the Pakistani Military Academy in a city in which many of the Pakistani flag officers live in retirement. One helicopter crashes, but without casualties. The troops assault the compound. At some point shots are fired. There were initial reports of a fire fight, but those turn out to be untrue, probably a misinterpretation of the "shots fired" report. For forty minutes more or less the assault continues. No one from outside interferes. There is no intervention by the Pakistani police, who probably possess helicopters and certainly possess squad cars. There is no intervention by the Pakistani armed forces including whatever security forces protect the military academy. There is no intervention from neighbors. The compound under attack is said to be unusual in that it had neither telephone nor Internet connections, from which we can infer that at least some and probably most of the houses in the neighborhood had both.
After forty minutes on the ground the troops, carrying a body and all the collectible information they could gather board the remaining flightworthy helicopter. This flies unopposed and unmolested back to a US base in Afghanistan, carrying some 40 men. At some point in this operation the Pakistani government is informed that the US has invaded their sovereign territory, and that this is an official US operation, please do not interfere. The Pakistani government is astonished, but stands down; no interceptors are sent, no inspections from air or ground are made. Pakistani investigators arrive at the compound, to find that all US operatives have left. There are some people in the compound. Some are alive. Some are dead. Some have been, and perhaps remain, handcuffed. There is no one in charge, no US operatives to explain the situation. The former compound inhabitants are taken into custody and removed to a Pakistani military installation.
The next morning the situation in the neighborhood returns to something like normal. New media are not allowed in the compound, at least not at first, but they can approach its walls. Local inhabitants come out in curiosity. Food vendors appear. There doesn't seem to be any great excitement. It is not clear which Pakistani organizations have come to take charge of the investigation. Certainly none of the operatives involved in the assault are in Pakistani custody.
Meanwhile, the very heavily laden helicopter -- carrying about 40 troops including the flight crew of the destroyed helicopter, plus one dead body, plus an unknown amount of loot. From Wikipedia on the Black Hawk:
Capacity: 2,640 lb of cargo internally, including 14 troops or 6 stretchers, or 8,000 lb (UH-60A) or 9,000 lb (UH-60L) of cargo externally
We have reports of 40 assault troops. Call it 35 including the flight crew of the downed copter. Add a dead body. That makes 36, at an average of, say, 190 pounds is 3240 pounds without equipment and a very crowded machine. The combat radius under normal load is said to be 368 miles, and the Afghani border is under 150 miles away so even fully loaded that's not a problem. It's not going to be a comfortable trip, and there's sure not a lot of room in there, but it's possible. By this time the Pakistani authorities have been told this is happening and ordered not to interfere, and for once everyone gets the word, and nothing happens.
This is the official story plus reasonable inferences. You can believe as much of this as you want to.
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The biggest question is, how was something this big kept secret? And just what secrets were kept? By whom, and from whom? Did Panetta keep the operation secret from the President until it was launched? Did the Pakistani government keep secrets from the Pakistani ISI? There are three entities in Pakistan: the government, the military, and the ISI. They have overlapping but not identical interests, and overlapping but very different personnel. They keep secrets from each other. The ISI created the Taliban, largely in reaction to the US abandonment of interest in the area following the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan. Once the Russians were out, the US wasn't interested in Afghanistan. Pakistan lives next door.
More details emerge. There is ambiguity in the number of troops engaged. There are many questions about just how many CIA assets were already in place in the general neighborhood.
The one thing we may be sure of is that the official story will leave Pakistan looking perhaps stupid but not in complicity with bin Laden. We may, however, use logic to try to infer just what did happen.
I'm not feeling very good, and I'm going to go have lunch while I contemplate all this.
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Subj: How many helicopters?
The version I read -- probably in the WSJ but perhaps in _National Review Online_ -- said there were four helicopters in the operation, of which two landed in the assault.
Presumably the people who arrived in the disabled helicopter departed aboard the two helicopters that were present but had not landed in the assault.
This is rather more plausible than stuffing forty people into one BlackHawk.
Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com
That certainly sounds more plausible in one way, but it also means a larger operation, with more assets. Four black helicopters from the Afghan border to Abbottabad, and no one noticed. Four come into the neighborhood and no one calls the cops. Well, that's more plausible in Pakistani than California, I suppose.
There is also the possibility that some of the agents already in place in Abbottabad took part in the raid; they may have gone out with the raiders, or made their way some other way. I suspect that someone was left behind to turn the mess over to the Pakistani authorities, who then vanished. I note that Pakistan is now 'retaliating' by outing some CIA officers who were perhaps due to be withdrawn anyway. Perhaps one of those greeted the local Chief of Police when the Pakistani came to the compound after all the excitement was done.
Since Pakistan is a very leaky outfit, but the US presumably made it clear to all three elements of Pakistan control -- the military, the government, and the ISI -- that bin Laden on their soil was a "bad", not a good. It would not have taken much warning to give bin Laden a chance to get away. Presumably he had some alternate safe house somewhere. Presumably the US had a watch on the house. All presumption, of course. I could easily write an adventure story about all this, and many will do that, but there are a lot of screwy details.
And my brain isn't working very well this week.
My thanks to all who have recently subscribed or renewed. This is KUSC pledge week, which means that it's the Spring Chaos Manor Pledge Drive, but I sort of hate to do that since I haven't had a great deal to contribute for the past week or so. I seem to be in the grip of something awful. I like to think I'm worth the money for the pledges and subscriptions and renewals, and I will be, presently; for the moment here we are.
There's a lot going on worth comment. I'm dancing as fast as I can...
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California public school teachers are marching about Sacramento to insist on raising taxes since they don't want any cut in their pay. California teachers are the second highest paid in the country according to the radio (New York is the highest) and indeed, if they had a pay cut of 10% they would still be the second highest paid in the land. Alas, while we once had one of the best public education systems in the land, that is no more. There are some good schools, but the average isn't so very good. The problem comes from failing to think about the purpose of public education.
The current way of thinking is as a right, and about equality, and about entitlements.
What isn't examined is why taxpayers ought to want to pay for public education: is there any benefit to those who pay taxes to finance this entitlement? If so, how do we assure that this beneficial goal will be met?
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There was a bit of mail last night.
There is mail today
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SUBJ: Pakis allowed UBL hit
Your conclusions confirmed, Jerry. Actually I suspect Paki involvement goes well beyond this, behind the scenes.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/
2011/may/09/osama-bin-laden-us-pakistan-dealThe money quote: "Under its terms, Pakistan would allow US forces to conduct a unilateral raid inside Pakistan in search of Bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and the al-Qaida No3. Afterwards, both sides agreed, Pakistan would vociferously protest the incursion."
Cordially, John
P.S. "Coming Soon To A Bahnhoff Near You" As you have doubtless noticed, the MS press is now festooned with articles of the Gomer Gestapo being poised to take over US train stations. Don't you just feel safer already?
John
Well, it's hardly astonishing. Pakistani had to have cooperated in some ways; the operation was impossible without at least some leashing of the local cops. When people start assaulting houses in Beverly Hills, you expect the Beverly Hills PD to respond even if the US government is doing the assaulting. The story I have heard is that Pakistani police were telling people in the neighborhood to turn off their lights and stay indoors. There certainly was no fire fight with the local police.
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