Nuclear Stockpiles: Cumulative estimates, introduction (original) (raw)

compiled by Wm. Robert Johnston
last modified 26 November 2007

The following pages provide estimates of the total nuclear stockpiles of the world's nuclear weapons states, including both numbers of warheads and total megatonnage. Besides my own estimates (WRJ), supplementary estimates from other sources (e.g. NRDC and U.S. DOE/DOD) are included.

Links to individual Nuclear Stockpiles pages:

Details on estimates and sources:

United States, warheads and megatonnage, various estimates:
- NRDC 2006 = Norris, Robert S., and Hans M. Kristensen, July/Aug. 2006, "Nuclear Notebook: Global nuclear stockpiles, 1945-2006," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 62(4):64-66; supplemented with 2007 figures.
- NRDC 2000 = Norris, Robert S., and William M. Arkin, March/April 2000, "Nuclear Notebook: Global nuclear stockpiles, 1945-2000," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 56(2):79+.
- NRDC 1995 = Cochran, Thomas B., 26 Sept. 1995, "U.S. inventories of nuclear weapons and weapon-usable fissile material," on line at NRDC.
- NRDC 1989 = Norris, Robert S., and William M. Arkin, Nov. 1989, "Nuclear Notebook: U.S., Soviet nuclear weapons stockpile, 1945-1989: numbers of weapons," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 53.
- NRDC 1984 = Cochran, Thomas B., William M. Arkin, and Robert S. Norris, 1984, Nuclear Weapons Databook Vol. I: U.S. Nuclear Forces and Capabilities, Ballinger Publ. Co. (Cambridge, MA).
- NRDC 1998 = Cochran, Thomas B., Robert S. Norris, and Christopher E. Paine, 1998, "Progress in nuclear weapons reductions," in Nuclear Weapons: The Road to Zero, ed. by Frank Blackaby, Joseph Rotblat, Westview Press (Boulder, CO), pp. 157-190.
- DOE 1994 = U.S. DOE, June 1994, "Declassified stockpile data 1945 to 1994," on line at U.S. DOE OpenNet [https://www.osti.gov/opennet/forms.jsp?formurl=document/press/pc26tab1.html\].
- NRDC 1989 = Cochran, Thomas B., William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Jeffrey I. Sands, 1989, Nuclear Weapons Databook Vol. IV: Soviet Nuclear Weapons, Harper and Row Publ. (New York, NY).
United States, strategic warheads and warheads abroad, various estimates:
- WRJ, operational/accountable = estimates of operational loading and arms treaty-accountable loadings, respectively.
- NRDC 2002 = NRDC, 2002, "Archive of nuclear data," on line at NRDC [http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp\].
- NRDC 1994 = Norris, Robert S., and William M. Arkin, Nov./Dec. 1994, "Nuclear Notebook: Estimated U.S. and Soviet/Russian nuclear stockpiles, 1945-94," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 58-59.
- NRDC 2005 = Kristensen, Hans M., Feb. 2005, "U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe: A review of post-cold war policy, force levels, and war planning," on line at NRDC [http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/contents.asp\]; figures derived from graph.
- NRDC 1999 = Norris, Robert Standish, 30 Nov. 1999, "United States nuclear weapon deployments abroad, 1950-1977," on line at NRDC; figures derived from DOD documents; data for 1954-1959 includes only weapons in Europe; supplemented with figures from Arkin, William M., Robert S. Norris, and Joshua Handler, March 1998, "Taking Stock: Worldwide nuclear deployments 1998," on line at NRDC [http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/tkstock/download.asp\].
USSR/Russia, warheads, various estimates:
- NRDC 2006 = Norris, Robert S., and Hans M. Kristensen, July/Aug. 2006, "Nuclear Notebook: Global nuclear stockpiles, 1945-2006," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 62(4):64-66; supplemented with 2007 figures.
- NRDC 2002 = NRDC, 2002, "Archive of nuclear data," on line at NRDC [http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp\].
- NRDC 1994 = Norris, Robert S., and William M. Arkin, Nov./Dec. 1994, "Nuclear Notebook: Estimated U.S. and Soviet/Russian nuclear stockpiles, 1945-94," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 58-59.
- NRDC 1989 = Cochran, Thomas B., William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Jeffrey I. Sands, 1989, Nuclear Weapons Databook Vol. IV: Soviet Nuclear Weapons, Harper and Row Publ. (New York, NY).
- Wohlstetter, Wanger, Weinberger, and Ikle/Wohlstetter = estimates derived from graphs presented by the respective individuals on behalf of the U.S. DOD; derivation by the NRDC, reported and described in Cochran, Thomas B., William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Jeffrey I. Sands, 1989, Nuclear Weapons Databook Vol. IV: Soviet Nuclear Weapons, Harper and Row Publ. (New York, NY).
USSR/Russia, megatonnage, various estimates:
- NRDC 1989 = Cochran, Thomas B., William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Jeffrey I. Sands, 1989, Nuclear Weapons Databook Vol. IV: Soviet Nuclear Weapons, Harper and Row Publ. (New York, NY).
- Wanger, Weinberger, Ikle/Wohlstetter, and Carlucci = estimates derived from graphs presented by the respective individuals on behalf of the U.S. DOD; derivation by the NRDC, reported and described in Cochran, Thomas B., William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Jeffrey I. Sands, 1989, Nuclear Weapons Databook Vol. IV: Soviet Nuclear Weapons, Harper and Row Publ. (New York, NY); note that these figures have been adjusted to compare to the U.S. stockpile values released by the DOE in 1994, in contrast to the slightly lower figure available to Cochran et al. in 1989.
USSR/Russia, strategic warheads, various estimates:
- WRJ, operational/accountable = estimates of operational loading and arms treaty-accountable loadings, respectively.
- NRDC 2002 = NRDC, 2002, "Archive of nuclear data," on line at NRDC [http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp\]; supplemented with later figures from "Nuclear Notebook".
- Zaloga 2002 = Zaloga, Steven, 2002, The Kremlin's Nuclear Sword: The Rise and Fall of Russia's Strategic Nuclear Forces, 1945-2000, Smithsonian Institution Press (Washington, DC).
- Podvig 2001 = Podvig, Pavel, ed., 2001, Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, MIT Press (Cambridge, MA).
- NRDC 1994 = Norris, Robert S., and William M. Arkin, Nov./Dec. 1994, "Nuclear Notebook: Estimated U.S. and Soviet/Russian nuclear stockpiles, 1945-94," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 58-59.
United Kingdom and France, warheads and megatonnage, various estimates:
- NRDC 2006 = Norris, Robert S., and Hans M. Kristensen, July/Aug. 2006, "Nuclear Notebook: Global nuclear stockpiles, 1945-2006," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 62(4):64-66.
- NRDC 1994 = Norris, Robert S., Andrew S. Burrows, and Richard S. Fieldhouse, 1994, Nuclear Weapons Databook, Vol. V: British, French, and Chinese Nuclear Weapons, Westview Press (Boulder, CO).
P.R. China, warheads and megatonnage, various estimates:
- NRDC 2006 = Norris, Robert S., and Hans M. Kristensen, July/Aug. 2006, "Nuclear Notebook: Global nuclear stockpiles, 1945-2006," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 62(4):64-66.
- Lewis 2004 = Lewis, Jeffrey, 2004, "The minimum means of reprisal: China's search for security in the nuclear age," Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of Maryland, College Park; also see Lewis, Jeffrey, 2007, The Minimum Means of Reprisal: China's Search for Security in the Nuclear Age, MIT Press; figures derived from graph, includes figures cited as unpublished revisions to NRDC estimates.
- NRDC 1994 = Norris, Robert S., Andrew S. Burrows, and Richard S. Fieldhouse, 1994, Nuclear Weapons Databook, Vol. V: British, French, and Chinese Nuclear Weapons, Westview Press (Boulder, CO).
Israel, warheads and megatonnage, various estimates:
- WRJ est. = median, low, and high estimates based on 2001, "Nuclear weapons and fissile material in Israel," on line [http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/wrjp442.html\].
South Africa, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, warheads and megatonnage, various estimates:
- NRDC = estimates from various issues of "Nuclear Notebook" in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 1998-2007; note that these are individual estimates at the respective times and do not represent a time series; in some cases a range of estimates is given in the respective article and represented here as a median value.