William Ponicki | None - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by William Ponicki

Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, Apr 8, 2016

Limited research suggests the context in which drinking occurs may contribute to specific alcohol... more Limited research suggests the context in which drinking occurs may contribute to specific alcohol-related consequences. Therefore the aims are to (i) determine whether the use of drinking contexts affects risks for several drinking consequences among young people in the general population and (ii) assess the degree to which additional risks are associated with greater levels of drinking in those contexts. A New Zealand survey of 16- to 29-year-olds asked about context-specific drinking and incidence of alcohol-related consequences grouped as follows: total, alcohol-related disorderly behavior, symptoms of dependence, effects of heavier drinking, and felt effects the next day. A context-specific dose-response model separated the effects of frequency (i.e., how often someone consumes 1 drink in each context) and context-specific quantity (i.e., the count of each successive drink consumed above the first), and these were estimated as predictors of consequences. Demographic covariates were included. Exposure (number of visits): Increased exposure to drinking at bars/nightclubs, even at a very low level of consumption, that is, 1 drink, was independently related to the experience of greater consequences, including alcohol-related disorderly behavior. Risks for alcohol-related consequences were more strongly related to exposure to bars/nightclubs than they were to heavier drinking in that context. Greater use of private motor vehicles and outdoor public places was also associated with greater consequences (independently of the heavier drinking in these contexts). Quantity: Risk of consequences associated with others' home, restaurants, and own home depended primarily on quantity consumed. Bars/nightclubs are inherently risky contexts for drinking by young people and improved controls are required. Drinking at others' home, private motor vehicles, and outdoor public places were also associated with consequences; prevention efforts increasing the price and reducing the availability of takeaway alcohol should work to reduce consequences at these contexts. Innovative context-specific interventions may be useful.

Epidemiology, Sep 21, 2020

Background:The rapid growth of opioid abuse and related mortality across the United States has sp... more Background:The rapid growth of opioid abuse and related mortality across the United States has spurred the development of predictive models for the allocation of public health resources. These models should characterize heterogeneous growth across states using a drug epidemic framework that enables assessments of epidemic onset, rates of growth, and limited capacities for epidemic growth.Methods:We used opioid overdose mortality data for 146 North and South Carolina counties from 2001 through 2014 to compare the retrodictive and predictive performance of a logistic growth model that parameterizes onsets, growth, and carrying capacity within a traditional Bayesian Poisson space–time model.Results:In fitting the models to past data, the performance of the logistic growth model was superior to the standard Bayesian Poisson space–time model (deviance information criterion: 8088 vs. 8256), with reduced spatial and independent errors. Predictively, the logistic model more accurately estimated fatality rates 1, 2, and 3 years in the future (root mean squared error medians were lower for 95.7% of counties from 2012 to 2014). Capacity limits were higher in counties with greater population size, percent population age 45 to 64, and percent white population. Epidemic onset was associated with greater same-year and past-year incidence of overdose hospitalizations.Conclusion:Growth in annual rates of opioid fatalities was capacity limited, heterogeneous across counties, and spatially correlated, requiring spatial epidemic models for the accurate and reliable prediction of future outcomes related to opioid abuse. Indicators of risk are identifiable and can be used to predict future mortality outcomes.

American Journal of Public Health, Jul 1, 2013

Objectives. From 1983 to 2008, the incidence of methamphetamine abuse and dependence (MA) present... more Objectives. From 1983 to 2008, the incidence of methamphetamine abuse and dependence (MA) presenting at hospitals in California increased 13-fold. We assessed whether this growth could be characterized as a drug epidemic.Methods. We geocoded MA discharges to residential zip codes from 1995 through 2008. We related discharges to population and environmental characteristics using Bayesian Poisson conditional autoregressive models, correcting for small area effects and spatial misalignment and enabling an assessment of contagion between areas.Results. MA incidence increased exponentially in 3 phases interrupted by implementation of laws limiting access to methamphetamine precursors. MA growth from 1999 through 2008 was 17% per year. MA was greatest in areas with larger White or Hispanic low-income populations, small household sizes, and good connections to highway systems. Spatial misalignment was a source of bias in estimated effects. Spatial autocorrelation was substantial, accounting for approximately 80% of error variance in the model.Conclusions. From 1995 through 2008, MA exhibited signs of growth and spatial spread characteristic of drug epidemics, spreading most rapidly through low-income White and Hispanic populations living outside dense urban areas.

GeoJournal, Aug 10, 2011

Background-The introduction and spread of high potency methamphetamine has led to dramatic increa... more Background-The introduction and spread of high potency methamphetamine has led to dramatic increases in drug-related problems in California. Prior research suggests that drug abuse rates are related to local demographic and economic characteristics, law enforcement activities, and sentencing practices. Methamphetamine abuse in particular has been shown to be reduced by laws regulating the raw materials needed for its production. This research models the regional effects of such laws on the spatio-temporal patterns of growth of methamphetamine-related problems across California from 1980 to 2006. Methods-Amphetamine-related arrests and hospital discharges related to amphetamine abuse / dependence were assembled for California counties over the years 1980 through 2006. Varyingparameter Bayesian space-time models were used to relate the implementation of major laws controlling the distribution of methamphetamine precursors to observed patterns of arrests and discharges and to allow such associations to vary by location. The models used conditionally autoregressive (CAR) Bayesian spatial priors to allow spatial correlation in estimation of countyspecific growth in these measures over three distinct time periods: before the 1989 law, between the 1989 and 1997 laws, and after the 1997 law. Growth of arrests and discharges were related to demographic and economic indicators to determine geographic areas more or less susceptible to the spread of methamphetamine problems. Results-Although both problem measures increased during all three periods, each of the precursor laws was associated with short-term reductions in the growth of arrests and discharges. Growth was greatest in central California counties prior to 1989 and increased in coastal counties in later years. From 1980 to 1989 growth was highest for counties with low incomes and high proportions of white residents, while 1989-1997 growth was highest in counties with fewer whites and more Hispanics. Growth after 1997 was not significantly associated with county characteristics. Conclusion-This research demonstrates that the precursor laws did suppress the growth of methamphetamine related arrests and hospital discharges. It also demonstrates specific geographic patterns in the growth of methamphetamine arrests and abuse across California during this time. Early patterns of growth were related to economic and demographic characteristics, while later patterns were not. This suggests that some counties were uniquely susceptible to the early spread of the methamphetamine epidemic, although problems eventually grew dramatically in all California counties.

Springer eBooks, Aug 18, 2012

This chapter examines the serious and growing public health problems related to methamphetamine a... more This chapter examines the serious and growing public health problems related to methamphetamine abuse in the United States. It combines economic and mathematical epidemiological approaches to explaining the spread of drug abuse, treating methamphetamine use as a chronic relapsing disease that spreads through social contacts with the active facilitation of illegal drug markets. These models suggest that methamphetamine problems may exhibit typical disease characteristics such as spatial clustering and correlated growth, as would be consistent with the frequent references to methamphetamine as an epidemic. These models were tested using historical data on methamphetamine-related arrests and hospital discharges in California between 1980 and 2006. Statewide data suggest that both problem indicators grew exponentially during this period except for temporary supply reductions following the enactment of federal restrictions on the precursor chemicals used to manufacture methamphetamine. The spatial spread of methamphetamine abuse was investigated using Bayesian space-time models of arrest counts in 330 California cities. These analyses found that cities varied considerably in both their underlying levels of amphetamine-related arrests and their growth rates over time. These growth rates were strongly correlated between nearby cities, as predicted by a disease approach in which a methamphetamine ‘infection’ spreads from person to person. These analyses suggested that methamphetamine growth was highest in rural northern and southern California between 1980 and 1989, then shifted to the central valley areas during the early 1990s before moving more into urban areas after 1997.

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Nov 1, 2018

Epidemiology, Jun 2, 2022

Drug and Alcohol Review, Mar 29, 2023

Epidemiology, Mar 16, 2023

Background: Cannabis legalization for medical and recreational purposes has been suggested as an ... more Background: Cannabis legalization for medical and recreational purposes has been suggested as an effective strategy to reduce opioid and benzodiazepine use and deaths. We examined the county-level association between medical and recreational cannabis laws and poisoning deaths involving opioids and benzodiazepines in the US from 2002 to 2020. Methods: Our ecologic county-level, spatiotemporal study comprised 49 states. Exposures were state-level implementation of medical and recreational cannabis laws and state-level initiation of cannabis dispensary sales. Our main outcomes were poisoning deaths involving any opioid, any benzodiazepine, and opioids with benzodiazepines. Secondary analyses included overdoses involving natural and semi-synthetic opioids, synthetic opioids, and heroin. Results: Implementation of medical cannabis laws was associated with increased deaths involving opioids (rate ratio [RR] = 1.14; 95% credible interval [CrI] = 1.11, 1.18), benzodiazepines (RR = 1.19; 95% CrI = 1.12, 1.26), and opioids+benzodiazepines (RR = 1.22; 95% CrI = 1.15, 1.30). Medical cannabis legalizations allowing dispensaries was associated with fewer deaths involving opioids (RR = 0.88; 95% CrI = 0.85, 0.91) but not benzodiazepine deaths; results for recreational cannabis implementation and opioid deaths were similar (RR = 0.81; 95% CrI = 0.75, 0.88). Recreational cannabis laws allowing dispensary sales was associated with consistent reductions in opioid- (RR = 0.83; 95% CrI = 0.76, 0.91), benzodiazepine- (RR = 0.79; 95% CrI = 0.68, 0.92), and opioid+benzodiazepine-related poisonings (RR = 0.83; 95% CrI = 0.70, 0.98). Conclusions: Implementation of medical cannabis laws was associated with higher rates of opioid- and benzodiazepine-related deaths, whereas laws permitting broader cannabis access, including implementation of recreational cannabis laws and medical and recreational dispensaries, were associated with lower rates. The estimated effects of the expanded availability of cannabis seem dependent on the type of law implemented and its provisions.

Statement of Purpose Problems of unit scale and resolution plague population analyses of violence... more Statement of Purpose Problems of unit scale and resolution plague population analyses of violence and crime related to alcohol outlets: Crime related to outlets may be located within a block (e.g., assault and battery), residential areas some distance away (e.g., child physical abuse), or diffusely spread across communities (e.g., drunken driving). When a social process is localised, highly resolved spatial analyses can identify local effects; when non-local, highly resolved analyses may miss the mark, identifying no local effects. We (1) conducted multiscale spatial analyses of crime to assess variation in spatial effects and (2) determined whether off-premise outlets, in particular, are associated with crimes in local or adjacent areas. Methods/Approach We examined relationships of violent crime incidents for Oakland, CA in 2015 with outlet locations and demographic data measured at Census block, block group and tract geographies. The impacts of aggregation bias were estimated at multiple spatial scales using the Moran’s I test for global autocorrelation. Negative Binomial models assessed relationships between predictors and outcomes across nested and adjacent (spatially lagged) units. Results Spatial autocorrelation for violent crimes declined from tract to block scales (e.g., assaults, 0.61’”0.29), while effect sizes related to outlets increased (e.g.,+2% at the block group vs. +58% at the block level for assaults). Multiscale analyses revealed that outlet and population effects were highly localised with adjacent (spatial lagged) effects observed at the block level. Critically, effects related to block group measures (e.g., low median household income and poverty) were expressed in identifiable local blocks. Conclusions Interpretations of crime effects related to neighbourhood conditions are conditional upon unit scale and resolution. Outlet effects are localised but exhibit important non-local (spatial lag) effects. Significance/Contribution to Injury and Violence Prevention Science Multiscale processes and patterns characterise links between alcohol environments and violent crime.

Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities, Feb 3, 2023

Background This paper examines the association between drinking context use by Whites and Hispani... more Background This paper examines the association between drinking context use by Whites and Hispanics on and off the US/ Mexico border and alcohol problems. Methods Data come from a household sample of 1209 adults 18 to 39 years of age resident in Imperial County on the California/Mexico border; and Kern, Tulare, and Madera in California's Central Valley. Data were collected on the phone or online and analyzed with an ordinal generalized linear model. Results The pattern of statistically significant associations between the frequency and the volume of drinking in different contexts varies across problem types. Furthermore, some contexts of drinking are associated with problems in more than one area. For instance, frequency of drinking at bars/pubs is associated with social problems, risky sex, and fights, but not with injuries. Injuries are associated with the frequency of drinking at home alone or with family and at restaurants. Volume of drinking at bars/pubs is also significantly associated with three different contexts: social problems, injury, and fights. But the volume of drinking at the home of friends or relatives is associated with fights only. Border location is an effect modifier, changing the effect of frequency of drinking at bars and pubs from protective to a factor of risk for social problems and fights. Conclusion These results provide support for the social ecology of drinking and micro environmental factors or risk. The effect of border location on frequency of drinking in bars/pubs underlines the importance of the macro environment in problem generation.

Addiction, May 28, 2022

Background and aimsRetail alcohol outlets appear to open in neighborhoods with low land and struc... more Background and aimsRetail alcohol outlets appear to open in neighborhoods with low land and structure rents near sources of demand; they may ‘agglomerate’, open near to one another or ‘churn’, replace one another, over time. We used the turnover in numbers of outlets over time to measure agglomeration and churning and the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on neighborhood crime.DesignInterrupted quasi‐experiments using spatial panel population data from 3768 synthetic block areas over 6 years.SettingCity of Oakland, CA, USA.ParticipantsCity population.MeasurementsCensus‐based socio‐demographic estimates and counts of openings and closings of bars/pubs, restaurants and off‐premises outlets related to assault, burglary and robbery crime incidents across synthetic Census blocks. Bayesian space–time models were used to assess agglomeration and churning and measure impacts of openings/closings on crime.FindingsChurning was substantial; openings followed closings for all outlets [bars/pubs, relative risk (RR) = 50.9, 95% credible interval (CI) = 3.0–449.9; restaurants, RR = 3.1, CI = 1.5–6.1; off‐premises, RR = 23.5, CI = 2.0–129.8]. Bars/pub and restaurant openings agglomerated with other outlets (e.g., RR = 1.02, CI = 1.00–1.03 and RR = 1.01, CI = 1.00–1.01), but off‐premises outlets did not. Covarying out effects related to outlet densities, bar/pub openings were related to a 3.5% increase in assaults (RR = 1.04, CI = 1.01–1.06) and 6.9% increase in robberies (RR = 1.07, CI = 1.03–1.11). Restaurant openings were related to a 5.3% increase in burglaries (RR = 1.05, CI = 1.04–1.06). Openings and closings of off‐premises outlets were unrelated to all three crime types.ConclusionsRetail alcohol outlets appear to follow a pattern of opening near to one another and replacing each other over time. Bar, pub and restaurant openings appear to be related to increases in neighborhood crime.

Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, May 20, 2018

Objectives-Past research has linked alcohol outlet densities to drinking, drunken driving and alc... more Objectives-Past research has linked alcohol outlet densities to drinking, drunken driving and alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). Because impaired drivers travel some distances from drinking places to crash locations, spatial relationships between outlets and crashes are complex. We investigate these relationships at three geographic levels: Census block groups (CBGs), adjacent (nearby) areas, and whole cities. Methods-We examined risks for all injury MVCs as well as 'had been drinking' (HBD) and single-vehicle nighttime (SVN) subgroups using data from the Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System (SWITRS) across CBGs among 50 California cities from 2001 to 2008. Relationships between outlet densities at the city-level, within CBGs, and in adjacent CBGs and crashes were examined using Bayesian Poisson space-time analyses controlling for population size income and other demographics (all as covariates). Results-All injury MVCs were positively related to adjacent CBG population size (RR=1.008, 95%credible interval (CI)=1.004, 1.012), and outlet densities at CBG (RR=1.027, CI=1.020, 1.035), nearby area (RR=1.084, CI=1.060, 1.106) and city levels (RR=1.227, CI=1.147, 1.315), and proportion of bars or pubs at the city level (RR=2.257, CI=1.187, 4.125). HBD and SVN crashes were comparatively less frequent in high outlet density CBG (RR=0.993, CI=0.986, 0.999; RR=0.979, CI=0.962, 0.996) and adjacent areas (RR=0.963, CI=0.951, 0.975; RR=0.909, CI=883, 0.936), but positively associated with city-level proportions of bars (RR=3.373, CI=0.736, 15.644; RR=10.322, CI=1.704, 81.215). Overall a 10% increase in all outlets was related to 2.8% more injury crashes (CI=2.3%,3.3%), and 2.5% more HBDs (CI=1.7%,3.3%). A 10% increase in bars was related to 1.4% more crashes, 4.3% more HBDs and 10.3% more SVNs. Conclusions-Population size and densities of bars or pubs were found to be associated with crash rates, with population effects appearing across cities and outlet effects appearing within dense downtown areas. Summary estimates of outlet and population impacts on MVCs must consider varying contributions at multiple spatial scales.

Substance Use & Misuse, Aug 1, 2013

This study evaluated State of California alcohol license records as a measure of businesses selli... more This study evaluated State of California alcohol license records as a measure of businesses selling alcohol for consumption on premise. In 2008, researchers attempted to visit all 799 licensed restaurants, bars, and pubs in six medium-sized cities near San Francisco. Surveys collected detailed business characteristics for a subsample of 151 bars or restaurants that included a separate bar area. Results suggest inaccuracies of official records regarding license locations and types (bar/pub vs. restaurant). Analyses also indicate that establishment characteristics are related to local alcohol outlet densities. Study implications and limitations are discussed.

Journal of Urban Health-bulletin of The New York Academy of Medicine, Feb 23, 2011

Neighborhood indicators of social disadvantage, such as poverty and unemployment, are associated ... more Neighborhood indicators of social disadvantage, such as poverty and unemployment, are associated with intimate partner violence (IPV). Despite the wellestablished link between heavy drinking and IPV, few studies have analyzed the contribution of alcohol outlet density to the occurrence of IPV. Greater numbers of alcohol outlets in a community may be a sign of loosened normative constraints against violence, promote problem drinking among at-risk couples, and provide environments where groups of persons at risk for IPV may form and mutually reinforce IPV-related attitudes, norms, and problem behaviors. This study used ecological data to determine if alcohol outlet density (number of bars, restaurants serving alcohol, and off-premise outlets per unit area) is related to rates of IPV-related police calls and IPV-related crime reports in Sacramento, California. Separate analyses for IPV calls and crime reports were conducted using Bayesian space-time models adjusted for area characteristics (poverty rate, unemployment rate, racial/ethnic composition). The results showed that each additional off-premise alcohol outlet is associated with an approximate 4% increase in IPV-related police calls and an approximate 3% increase in IPV-related crime reports. Bars and restaurants were not associated with either outcome. The findings suggest that alcohol outlet density, especially off-premise outlets, appear to be related to IPV events. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which neighborhood factors, such as alcohol outlet density, affect IPV behaviors. Understanding these mechanisms is of public health importance for developing environmental IPV prevention strategies, such as changes in zoning, community action, education, and enforcement activities.

Drug and Alcohol Review, 2020

Introduction and AimsPrevious research on alcohol‐related motor vehicle crashes (AMVC) share a su... more Introduction and AimsPrevious research on alcohol‐related motor vehicle crashes (AMVC) share a substantial limitation: sources of geographic variations in background crash risks may confound estimated spatial relationships between alcohol outlets and AMVCs. The aim of this study was to address this concern by examining, spatial–temporally, relationships between alcohol outlets and AMVCs adjusting for a set of six roadway characteristics that may be, independently, related to crash risks. While most similar studies focus on one metropolitan area, we use a unique sample of 50 cities.Design and MethodsThe spatial sample for this study consisted of 8726 Census 2000 block groups representing 50 mid‐sized California cities. Dependent measures were counts of crashes located within Census block groups. Independent measures included socio‐demographics, social disadvantage, alcohol outlets and roadway characteristics. We assessed relationships of crashes to independent measures using hierarch...

SSM - Population Health, 2020

Greater availability of commercial alcohol is associated with increased alcohol use and related p... more Greater availability of commercial alcohol is associated with increased alcohol use and related public health problems. Greater alcohol outlet density, a marker of alcohol availability, is associated with poorer and predominantly minority neighborhoods. However, poorer populations, African Americans, and Latinxs report using less alcohol compared to Whites and wealthier groups. We consider the role of structural racism in the social ecology of alcohol availability. Specifically we examine racist urban land use practices in the USA which became codified in the 1930s through Federal Home Owner Lending Corporation (HOLC) designations for assigning parcel values, known as "redlining." Redlining demarcated low-density residential zones for wealthy Whites which excluded poor and non-White people as well as certain businesses, including alcohol retailers. We assessed the impacts of historic redlining on present day risks for exposure to retail alcohol availability in urban Northern California. Methods: For six contiguous and demographically diverse Northern California cities we obtained digital renderings of HOLC maps (1937) which demarcated exclusions of people and businesses for 119 neighborhood areas across four land valuation zones. We then identified the most prevalent HOLC rating for each of 520 current Census block groups in the six cities, including a residual category for areas not rated by HOLC. We geolocated all current (2016) off-premise alcohol sales outlets operating in the six cities (N = 401). We used Bayesian spatial Poisson models to relate current alcohol outlet densities and Census-based estimates of neighborhood characteristics to historic HOLC classifications. Results: Spatial Poisson analyses found far greater contemporary off-premise outlet densities in the lowest-valued HOLC zones than in the highest (median relative rate [RR] 9.6, 95% CI 4.8-22.1). The lowest-valued HOLC zones were also characterized by far higher current percentages of both Black residents (RR 30.4, 95% CI 17.0-54.6) and Hispanic residents (RR 9.7, 95% CI 7.2-12.9). Conclusions: Present day risks for exposure to retail alcohol availability were delimited by historic exclusionary land use practices. Current inequitable health risks may be founded on racist spatial projects of past decades.

International Journal of Drug Policy, 2019

Background: Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMP), by reducing access to prescribed opioid... more Background: Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMP), by reducing access to prescribed opioids (POs), may contribute to a policy environment in which some people with opioid dependence are at increased risk for transitioning from POs to heroin/other illegal opioids. This study examines how PDMP adoption and changes in the characteristics of PDMPs over time contribute to changes in fatal heroin poisoning in counties within states from 2002 to 2016. Methods: Latent transition analysis to classify PDMPs into latent classes (Cooperative, Proactive, and Weak) for each state and year, across three intervals (1999-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2016). We examined the association between probability of PDMP latent class membership and the rate of county-level heroin poisoning death. Results: After adjustment for potential county-level confounders and co-occurring policy changes, adoption of a PDMP was significantly associated with increased heroin poisoning rates (22% increase by third year postadoption). Findings varied by PDMP type. From 2010-2016, states with Cooperative PDMPs (those more likely to share data with other states, to require more frequent reporting, and include more drug schedules) had 19% higher heroin poisoning rates than states with Weak PDMPs (adjusted rate ratio [ARR] = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.14, 1.25). States with Proactive PDMPs (those more likely to report outlying prescribing and dispensing and provide broader access to law enforcement) had 6% lower heroin poisoning rates than states with No/Weak PDMPs (ARR = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.90, 0.98). Conclusion: There is a consistent, positive association between state PDMP adoption and heroin poisoning mortality. However, this varies by PDMP type, with Proactive PDMPs associated with a small reduction in heroin poisoning deaths. This raises questions about the potential for PDMPs to support efforts to decrease heroin overdose risk, particularly by using proactive alerts to identify patients in need of treatment for opioid use disorder. Future research on mechanisms explaining the reduction in heroin poisonings after enactment of Proactive PDMPs is merited.

Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, 2018