steve labson | UNIVERSITY OF JOHANNESBURG (original) (raw)
Papers by steve labson
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT , 1995
This research examines whether innovations in the relationship between metals demand and economic... more This research examines whether innovations in the relationship between metals demand and economic activity are of a deep nature, such that they have persistence, or whether such innovations are transitory, conditional on a break point resulting from the 1973 oil price shock. Evidence was found to suggest that, at least for some of the metals studied in this research, intensity of use is well represented as a stationary process after accounting for a break point at 1973. One interpretation of this result is that technological shocks are not as pervasive as one might have thought and that only extraordinary events have a measurably long-lasting influence on metals demand. © 1995 Academic Press, Inc.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 1992
The author wrole this paper while at the University of Califomia. The author wishes to acknowledg... more The author wrole this paper while at the University of Califomia. The author wishes to acknowledge the numerous insights gained from collabol1ltion with Gordon C. Rausser in a separate paper, 'Modelling phal\cd reduction of distortionary policies in the US whcat market under altemative macroeconomic environments' (Labson fmd Rausser 1992).
IO: Regulation, 2016
Asset valuation typically plays an important role in determination of regulated tariffs, and acco... more Asset valuation typically plays an important role in determination of regulated tariffs, and accordingly the methodology employed in valuation of such assets provides a rich source of academic analysis and applied case study. The topic of asset valuation is made more interesting given the range of valuation methodologies to choose from - that the choice of methodology often has a significant impact on deemed prices – and that there is not a professional consensus or standard in which to guide practitioners needing to determine cost based prices or tariffs. Further motivated by the June 2015 judgment in the matter between Sasol Chemical Industries Ltd and the Competition Commission (Competition Appeal Court of South Africa, the Honourable JP Davis) we review competing asset valuation methodologies within the context of economic value, optimality, price signalling, investment incentives, and subsidy – and in doing so identify some common myths and misconceptions gleaned from this case...
Conferance proceedings, 2016
Asset valuation typically plays an important role in the determination of regulated tariffs, and,... more Asset valuation typically plays an important role in the determination of regulated tariffs, and, accordingly the methodology employed in the valuation of such assets provides a rich source of academic analysis and applied case study. The topic of asset valuation is made more interesting given the range of valuation methodologies to choose from - that the choice of methodology often has a significant impact on deemed prices – and that there is not a professional consensus or standard in which to guide practitioners needing to determine cost-based prices or tariffs. Further motivated by the June 2015 Judgment of the Competition Appeal Court of South Africa in the matter between Sasol Chemical Industries Ltd and the Competition Commission we review competing asset valuation methodologies within the context of economic value, competitive markets, and sunk costs of fixed assets – and in doing so identify some common myths and misconceptions applied to this field of study.
Network, 2016
With the preferred methodology and initial regulatory asset values established across many of Aus... more With the preferred methodology and initial regulatory asset values established across many of Australia’s regulated industry sectors some time ago, the debate on regulatory approach has moved to related issues of asset optimisation, capex efficiency mechanisms, and treatment of stranded assets. Although these issues are of considerable importance, there may still be something to be learned in tracing the development of regulatory thinking on asset valuation, and the criteria by which various methods have been assessed. As such, this narrative may speak to broader issues of regulation and the objective standards in which regulatory decisions are made.
The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developi... more The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developing economies in regions such as China, India, and South Korea emerging as key centers of growth in the sector. Alternatively, the industrialized economies of the European Union, Japan, and North America are gradually losing their dominant role. This paper describes an econometric trade model that has been constructed to quantitatively evaluate the dynamics of the world iron ore and steel market to the year 2000. Results obtained from this model indicate that the developing Asian region will account for 67 percent of the projected increase in annual steel consumption to the end of this decade. Production in the region is projected to increase by 37.2 million tonnes. To produce this volume of steel, China alone will need to import 57.9 million tonnes of iron ore annually by the year 2000. The world's major iron ore exporters-Australia, Brazil, and India-are projected to increase production accordingly.
ABARE RESEARCH REPORT 95.4, 1995
The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developi... more The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developing economies in regions such as China, India, and South Korea emerging as key centers of growth in the sector. Alternatively, the industrialized economies of the European Union, Japan, and North America are gradually losing their dominant role. This paper describes an econometric trade model that has been constructed to quantitatively evaluate the dynamics of the world iron ore and steel market to the year 2000. Results obtained from this model indicate that the developing Asian region will account for 67 percent of the projected increase in annual steel consumption to the end of this decade. Production in the region is projected to increase by 37.2 million tonnes. To produce this volume of steel, China alone will need to import 57.9 million tonnes of iron ore annually by the year 2000. The world's major iron ore exporters — Australia, Brazil, and India — are projected to increase pr...
A Sudanese woman walks to the market. Africa needs to improve governance, build infrastructure, a... more A Sudanese woman walks to the market. Africa needs to improve governance, build infrastructure, and reduce trade barriers within the continent to achieve aims of inclusive growth.REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah Set against the backdrop of low growth, dire unemployment figures, and a huge infrastructure deficitthe theme of this year's African World Economic Forum (WEF) is "inclusive and sustainable growth". This is a familiar subject for policy makers. On both the regional and global stage it is natural to speak in terms of market integration among groupings of nations to stimulate economic growth. Reducing bottlenecks to trade often serves as the focal point, with Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) typically the formal means of implementing these initiatives. The idea behind all of this is that connected markets provide a larger base of customers into which companies can sell their products and services. And that, for their part, customers benefit from greater product diversity and value. This in turn creates a virtuous cycle in which a growing economy makes investment in the region more bankable. With greater access to funding, investment in needed capital projects can be accelerated, in turn reducing Africa's sizeable infrastructure gap and stimulating inclusive growth.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The author wrole this paper while at the University of Califomia. The author wishes to acknowledg... more The author wrole this paper while at the University of Califomia. The author wishes to acknowledge the numerous insights gained from collabol1ltion with Gordon C. Rausser in a separate paper, 'Modelling phal\cd reduction of distortionary policies in the US whcat market under altemative macroeconomic environments' (Labson fmd Rausser 1992).
Applied Economics, 1994
In this paper, the adoption of electric arc furnace steelmaking technology is examined within a g... more In this paper, the adoption of electric arc furnace steelmaking technology is examined within a growth model of technological diffusion. The results indicate that the trend rate of adoption of electric are furnace technology is well represented by the S-shaped growth curve. Further results indicate that the trend rate of adoption is, for the most part, stable with respect to
Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
USTRALIA'S national competition policy reform, as first outlined in the 1993 Report of the Indepe... more USTRALIA'S national competition policy reform, as first outlined in the 1993 Report of the Independent Committee of Inquiry into National jL-^.Competition Policy (Hilmer et al., 1993), reflects an appreciation of the benefits to the community of extending pro-competitive policies to sectors of the economy that have previously been exempt from them. This approach, further developed and agreed to by the States, Territories and the Commonwealth in the Competition Principles Agreement (CPA) (COAG, 1994) has been a driving force in die structural reform of Australian utilities, which, until recently, have been predominantly state-owned statutory monopolies. A key component of this reform has been the structural separation of the state's role as shareholder from its responsibility as regulator. Previously, matters of the community interest such as pricing, customer service standards, dispute resolution, environmental impact, and social obligations were addressed primarily by the utility itself (and indirectly through ministerial oversight). Now, they are increasingly being addressed within a rather more independent and transparent regulatory structure applied to both state-owned and privatised utilities. This new regulatory framework can be seen as an 'unbundling' of the state's authority to regulate utilities in the community interest. It is not, however, to be confused with outright deregulation. Nevertheless, interest groups have voiced concern that these new regulatory structures will not be sufficiently robust to ensure that die broad range of community objeedves are met. To address these concerns, a number of adjunct condidons, in die form of corporate objeedves or condidons of licence, have been placed on udlides as a means of gaining support for corporadsadon and/or privadsadon. In die process, broad policy inidadves have often become intertwined widi diose condidons which are sensibly placed on an enterprise as a requisite of industry pardcipadon, such as environmental, health, safety and fair trading reguladons. Not surprisingly, many of the benefits associated with regulatory separadon have been forgone where rebundling has occurred. For a comprehensive survey of utility restructuring in Australia, see King and Maddock (1996). 2 Some aspects of New Zealand's system of 'light-handed' regulation comes closer to true de regulation. For a discussion of this approach, see Bollard and Pickford (1995).
AAEA Conferance Proceedings, 1990
In an excess demand system where random weather shocks enter multiplicatively rather than additiv... more In an excess demand system where random weather shocks enter multiplicatively
rather than additively, estimates of the underlying parameters will be in-efficient und~r
the "small country" assumptioi:i and biased in the "large country" case. A Monte Carlo
simulation demonstrates that the magnitude of the bias is potentially very large.
1 1 Introduction 7 2 Development of the Chinese steel sector 9 Economic reform The impact of refo... more 1 1 Introduction 7 2 Development of the Chinese steel sector 9 Economic reform The impact of reforms on the Chinese steel sector The Chinese steel industry at present China's participation in the world steel and raw materials markets The Chinese steel industry in 2000 3 Global effects of growth in the Chinese steel industry Baseline projections The effects of high economic growth in China The effects of low economic growth in China 4 Conclusions Policy directions Appendix Description of the world iron ore and steel trade model References Box 1 A model of the world iron ore and steel trade Map Steelworks and iron ore producing regions in China Summary China is undergoing rapid industrial development China was the due, at least in part, to the economic reforms world's thirdlargest implemented since the late 1970s. Growth in the steel producer in Chinese iron ore and steel sector has been 1993, a fivefold concomitant to this development, placing China increasefrom 1970 among the world's largest producers and consumers of steel and steelmaking raw materials. China has progressed from being the world's seventh largest steel producer (in volume terms) in 1970, to fifth in 1980 and to third in 1993, behind the CIS and Japan. The 89 million tonnes of steel produced in China in 1993 is five times greater than the quantity of steel produced in 1970 and almost two and a half times that produced in 1980. China has become a significant importer of steel and will become an increasingly important participant in the world iron ore and steel murket Increasing demand for iron ore in China will provide a larger market for Australian iron ore China's steel industry of iron ore, Australia is well placed to respond to this demand. A quantitative assessment The model of world In order to determine the potential effect on the world trade in iron ore market of growth in the Chinese iron ore and steel and steel was used sector, a model of world trade in iron ore and steel to examine the was constructed. The model is a set of linked regional impact of economic supply and demand relations. Capacity constraints, growth in China adjustment costs, technological change and other aspects of the sector are accounted for in the modelling framework through their effect on these supply and demand relationships. World prices, production and consumption are then solved for under market clearing conditions, that is, production is equal to consumption. The model was employed to examine the impact on the world iron ore and steel sector of economic growth in China by simulating market outcomes based on projected growth in Chinese industrial production to the year 2000. China's expanding role in the world iron ore and steel market In addition to Annual steel consumption in China is projected to increasing steel increase by 30 million tonnes over the period 1994 production China is to 2000. This increase in demand accounts for 30 per expected to import cent of the projected total increase in annual world increasing steel consumption over the same period. In response quantities of steel to this significant increase in demand, China is projected to increase annual steel production to 110 million tonnes in 2000, making China the world's largest steel producing country. Despite such growth in output of steel, China is projected to import between 12 and 26 million tonnes of steel a year over the rest of the decade. The European To meet the projected increase in Chinese as well as Union, North world steel demand, those regions with established America and Japan steelmaking capacity, such as the European Union, 2 ABARE research report 95.4 North America and Japan are also projected to are projected to increase production. While projected steel increase steel production for these mature steelmaking regions is production by more well below previous peaks, growth in production is than loper cent by significant, with each of these regions increasing the year 2000 annual steel production by more than 10 per cent by the year 2000. China's increasing steel output, comprised largely of China's demand for blast furnace based production, corresponds to an iron ore imports is increase in annual iron ore consumption of 31 projected to rise million tonnes over the period 1994 to 2000. Even from 37 million with an increase in domestic production of iron ore, tonnes in 1994 to China's import demand for iron ore is projected to 50 million tonnes rise from 37 million tonnes in 1994, to 50 million 2y 2000 tonnes by 2000. This projected rise in iron ore imports is consistent with Chinese plans for new steel plants and increased capacity at existing plants at locations near port facilities, and hence accessible to imported ore. Developments in iron ore supplying countries The major world exporters of iron ore are Australia, Australia, Brazil Brazil and India. Australia is likely to be particularly and India will all affected by growth in the Chinese steel market (as increase their well as the general increase in demand worldwide). production and In response to the projected increase in demand for exports of iron ore iron ore, Australia is projected to increase production by 17 million tonnes over the simulation period, with 16 million tonnes of this increase sold on the export market. Over this same period, Brazil's exports of iron ore are projected to increase by 14 million tonnes and India's exports by 10 million tonnes. Implications for Australia Australia holds the largest share of the Chinese iron Australia supplies ore import market, supplying 17 million tonnes of over half of the 33 million tonnes of Chinese iron ore imports in Chinese iron ore 1993. China's importance as a destination for imports-15per Australian iron ore exports has been increasing cent ofAustralian strongly. In 1993 China accounted for 15 per cent of trade in iron ore Australia's iron ore exports of 11 1 million tonnes. in 1993-China 's steel industry-1992, 'Review of China's steel demand' in Drysdale, P. (ed.
DESCRIPTION The purpose of this review is to highlight some of the more significant issues associ... more DESCRIPTION The purpose of this review is to highlight some of the more significant issues associated with electricity pricing in South Africa and its impact on the economy. In providing our note on this issue, we have had regard to a substantial body of research carried out by others, and synthesized selected parts of their analysis so as to highlight what we believe are some of the fundamental issues and implications at hand.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT , 1995
This research examines whether innovations in the relationship between metals demand and economic... more This research examines whether innovations in the relationship between metals demand and economic activity are of a deep nature, such that they have persistence, or whether such innovations are transitory, conditional on a break point resulting from the 1973 oil price shock. Evidence was found to suggest that, at least for some of the metals studied in this research, intensity of use is well represented as a stationary process after accounting for a break point at 1973. One interpretation of this result is that technological shocks are not as pervasive as one might have thought and that only extraordinary events have a measurably long-lasting influence on metals demand. © 1995 Academic Press, Inc.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 1992
The author wrole this paper while at the University of Califomia. The author wishes to acknowledg... more The author wrole this paper while at the University of Califomia. The author wishes to acknowledge the numerous insights gained from collabol1ltion with Gordon C. Rausser in a separate paper, 'Modelling phal\cd reduction of distortionary policies in the US whcat market under altemative macroeconomic environments' (Labson fmd Rausser 1992).
IO: Regulation, 2016
Asset valuation typically plays an important role in determination of regulated tariffs, and acco... more Asset valuation typically plays an important role in determination of regulated tariffs, and accordingly the methodology employed in valuation of such assets provides a rich source of academic analysis and applied case study. The topic of asset valuation is made more interesting given the range of valuation methodologies to choose from - that the choice of methodology often has a significant impact on deemed prices – and that there is not a professional consensus or standard in which to guide practitioners needing to determine cost based prices or tariffs. Further motivated by the June 2015 judgment in the matter between Sasol Chemical Industries Ltd and the Competition Commission (Competition Appeal Court of South Africa, the Honourable JP Davis) we review competing asset valuation methodologies within the context of economic value, optimality, price signalling, investment incentives, and subsidy – and in doing so identify some common myths and misconceptions gleaned from this case...
Conferance proceedings, 2016
Asset valuation typically plays an important role in the determination of regulated tariffs, and,... more Asset valuation typically plays an important role in the determination of regulated tariffs, and, accordingly the methodology employed in the valuation of such assets provides a rich source of academic analysis and applied case study. The topic of asset valuation is made more interesting given the range of valuation methodologies to choose from - that the choice of methodology often has a significant impact on deemed prices – and that there is not a professional consensus or standard in which to guide practitioners needing to determine cost-based prices or tariffs. Further motivated by the June 2015 Judgment of the Competition Appeal Court of South Africa in the matter between Sasol Chemical Industries Ltd and the Competition Commission we review competing asset valuation methodologies within the context of economic value, competitive markets, and sunk costs of fixed assets – and in doing so identify some common myths and misconceptions applied to this field of study.
Network, 2016
With the preferred methodology and initial regulatory asset values established across many of Aus... more With the preferred methodology and initial regulatory asset values established across many of Australia’s regulated industry sectors some time ago, the debate on regulatory approach has moved to related issues of asset optimisation, capex efficiency mechanisms, and treatment of stranded assets. Although these issues are of considerable importance, there may still be something to be learned in tracing the development of regulatory thinking on asset valuation, and the criteria by which various methods have been assessed. As such, this narrative may speak to broader issues of regulation and the objective standards in which regulatory decisions are made.
The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developi... more The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developing economies in regions such as China, India, and South Korea emerging as key centers of growth in the sector. Alternatively, the industrialized economies of the European Union, Japan, and North America are gradually losing their dominant role. This paper describes an econometric trade model that has been constructed to quantitatively evaluate the dynamics of the world iron ore and steel market to the year 2000. Results obtained from this model indicate that the developing Asian region will account for 67 percent of the projected increase in annual steel consumption to the end of this decade. Production in the region is projected to increase by 37.2 million tonnes. To produce this volume of steel, China alone will need to import 57.9 million tonnes of iron ore annually by the year 2000. The world's major iron ore exporters-Australia, Brazil, and India-are projected to increase production accordingly.
ABARE RESEARCH REPORT 95.4, 1995
The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developi... more The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developing economies in regions such as China, India, and South Korea emerging as key centers of growth in the sector. Alternatively, the industrialized economies of the European Union, Japan, and North America are gradually losing their dominant role. This paper describes an econometric trade model that has been constructed to quantitatively evaluate the dynamics of the world iron ore and steel market to the year 2000. Results obtained from this model indicate that the developing Asian region will account for 67 percent of the projected increase in annual steel consumption to the end of this decade. Production in the region is projected to increase by 37.2 million tonnes. To produce this volume of steel, China alone will need to import 57.9 million tonnes of iron ore annually by the year 2000. The world's major iron ore exporters — Australia, Brazil, and India — are projected to increase pr...
A Sudanese woman walks to the market. Africa needs to improve governance, build infrastructure, a... more A Sudanese woman walks to the market. Africa needs to improve governance, build infrastructure, and reduce trade barriers within the continent to achieve aims of inclusive growth.REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah Set against the backdrop of low growth, dire unemployment figures, and a huge infrastructure deficitthe theme of this year's African World Economic Forum (WEF) is "inclusive and sustainable growth". This is a familiar subject for policy makers. On both the regional and global stage it is natural to speak in terms of market integration among groupings of nations to stimulate economic growth. Reducing bottlenecks to trade often serves as the focal point, with Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) typically the formal means of implementing these initiatives. The idea behind all of this is that connected markets provide a larger base of customers into which companies can sell their products and services. And that, for their part, customers benefit from greater product diversity and value. This in turn creates a virtuous cycle in which a growing economy makes investment in the region more bankable. With greater access to funding, investment in needed capital projects can be accelerated, in turn reducing Africa's sizeable infrastructure gap and stimulating inclusive growth.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The author wrole this paper while at the University of Califomia. The author wishes to acknowledg... more The author wrole this paper while at the University of Califomia. The author wishes to acknowledge the numerous insights gained from collabol1ltion with Gordon C. Rausser in a separate paper, 'Modelling phal\cd reduction of distortionary policies in the US whcat market under altemative macroeconomic environments' (Labson fmd Rausser 1992).
Applied Economics, 1994
In this paper, the adoption of electric arc furnace steelmaking technology is examined within a g... more In this paper, the adoption of electric arc furnace steelmaking technology is examined within a growth model of technological diffusion. The results indicate that the trend rate of adoption of electric are furnace technology is well represented by the S-shaped growth curve. Further results indicate that the trend rate of adoption is, for the most part, stable with respect to
Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
USTRALIA'S national competition policy reform, as first outlined in the 1993 Report of the Indepe... more USTRALIA'S national competition policy reform, as first outlined in the 1993 Report of the Independent Committee of Inquiry into National jL-^.Competition Policy (Hilmer et al., 1993), reflects an appreciation of the benefits to the community of extending pro-competitive policies to sectors of the economy that have previously been exempt from them. This approach, further developed and agreed to by the States, Territories and the Commonwealth in the Competition Principles Agreement (CPA) (COAG, 1994) has been a driving force in die structural reform of Australian utilities, which, until recently, have been predominantly state-owned statutory monopolies. A key component of this reform has been the structural separation of the state's role as shareholder from its responsibility as regulator. Previously, matters of the community interest such as pricing, customer service standards, dispute resolution, environmental impact, and social obligations were addressed primarily by the utility itself (and indirectly through ministerial oversight). Now, they are increasingly being addressed within a rather more independent and transparent regulatory structure applied to both state-owned and privatised utilities. This new regulatory framework can be seen as an 'unbundling' of the state's authority to regulate utilities in the community interest. It is not, however, to be confused with outright deregulation. Nevertheless, interest groups have voiced concern that these new regulatory structures will not be sufficiently robust to ensure that die broad range of community objeedves are met. To address these concerns, a number of adjunct condidons, in die form of corporate objeedves or condidons of licence, have been placed on udlides as a means of gaining support for corporadsadon and/or privadsadon. In die process, broad policy inidadves have often become intertwined widi diose condidons which are sensibly placed on an enterprise as a requisite of industry pardcipadon, such as environmental, health, safety and fair trading reguladons. Not surprisingly, many of the benefits associated with regulatory separadon have been forgone where rebundling has occurred. For a comprehensive survey of utility restructuring in Australia, see King and Maddock (1996). 2 Some aspects of New Zealand's system of 'light-handed' regulation comes closer to true de regulation. For a discussion of this approach, see Bollard and Pickford (1995).
AAEA Conferance Proceedings, 1990
In an excess demand system where random weather shocks enter multiplicatively rather than additiv... more In an excess demand system where random weather shocks enter multiplicatively
rather than additively, estimates of the underlying parameters will be in-efficient und~r
the "small country" assumptioi:i and biased in the "large country" case. A Monte Carlo
simulation demonstrates that the magnitude of the bias is potentially very large.
1 1 Introduction 7 2 Development of the Chinese steel sector 9 Economic reform The impact of refo... more 1 1 Introduction 7 2 Development of the Chinese steel sector 9 Economic reform The impact of reforms on the Chinese steel sector The Chinese steel industry at present China's participation in the world steel and raw materials markets The Chinese steel industry in 2000 3 Global effects of growth in the Chinese steel industry Baseline projections The effects of high economic growth in China The effects of low economic growth in China 4 Conclusions Policy directions Appendix Description of the world iron ore and steel trade model References Box 1 A model of the world iron ore and steel trade Map Steelworks and iron ore producing regions in China Summary China is undergoing rapid industrial development China was the due, at least in part, to the economic reforms world's thirdlargest implemented since the late 1970s. Growth in the steel producer in Chinese iron ore and steel sector has been 1993, a fivefold concomitant to this development, placing China increasefrom 1970 among the world's largest producers and consumers of steel and steelmaking raw materials. China has progressed from being the world's seventh largest steel producer (in volume terms) in 1970, to fifth in 1980 and to third in 1993, behind the CIS and Japan. The 89 million tonnes of steel produced in China in 1993 is five times greater than the quantity of steel produced in 1970 and almost two and a half times that produced in 1980. China has become a significant importer of steel and will become an increasingly important participant in the world iron ore and steel murket Increasing demand for iron ore in China will provide a larger market for Australian iron ore China's steel industry of iron ore, Australia is well placed to respond to this demand. A quantitative assessment The model of world In order to determine the potential effect on the world trade in iron ore market of growth in the Chinese iron ore and steel and steel was used sector, a model of world trade in iron ore and steel to examine the was constructed. The model is a set of linked regional impact of economic supply and demand relations. Capacity constraints, growth in China adjustment costs, technological change and other aspects of the sector are accounted for in the modelling framework through their effect on these supply and demand relationships. World prices, production and consumption are then solved for under market clearing conditions, that is, production is equal to consumption. The model was employed to examine the impact on the world iron ore and steel sector of economic growth in China by simulating market outcomes based on projected growth in Chinese industrial production to the year 2000. China's expanding role in the world iron ore and steel market In addition to Annual steel consumption in China is projected to increasing steel increase by 30 million tonnes over the period 1994 production China is to 2000. This increase in demand accounts for 30 per expected to import cent of the projected total increase in annual world increasing steel consumption over the same period. In response quantities of steel to this significant increase in demand, China is projected to increase annual steel production to 110 million tonnes in 2000, making China the world's largest steel producing country. Despite such growth in output of steel, China is projected to import between 12 and 26 million tonnes of steel a year over the rest of the decade. The European To meet the projected increase in Chinese as well as Union, North world steel demand, those regions with established America and Japan steelmaking capacity, such as the European Union, 2 ABARE research report 95.4 North America and Japan are also projected to are projected to increase production. While projected steel increase steel production for these mature steelmaking regions is production by more well below previous peaks, growth in production is than loper cent by significant, with each of these regions increasing the year 2000 annual steel production by more than 10 per cent by the year 2000. China's increasing steel output, comprised largely of China's demand for blast furnace based production, corresponds to an iron ore imports is increase in annual iron ore consumption of 31 projected to rise million tonnes over the period 1994 to 2000. Even from 37 million with an increase in domestic production of iron ore, tonnes in 1994 to China's import demand for iron ore is projected to 50 million tonnes rise from 37 million tonnes in 1994, to 50 million 2y 2000 tonnes by 2000. This projected rise in iron ore imports is consistent with Chinese plans for new steel plants and increased capacity at existing plants at locations near port facilities, and hence accessible to imported ore. Developments in iron ore supplying countries The major world exporters of iron ore are Australia, Australia, Brazil Brazil and India. Australia is likely to be particularly and India will all affected by growth in the Chinese steel market (as increase their well as the general increase in demand worldwide). production and In response to the projected increase in demand for exports of iron ore iron ore, Australia is projected to increase production by 17 million tonnes over the simulation period, with 16 million tonnes of this increase sold on the export market. Over this same period, Brazil's exports of iron ore are projected to increase by 14 million tonnes and India's exports by 10 million tonnes. Implications for Australia Australia holds the largest share of the Chinese iron Australia supplies ore import market, supplying 17 million tonnes of over half of the 33 million tonnes of Chinese iron ore imports in Chinese iron ore 1993. China's importance as a destination for imports-15per Australian iron ore exports has been increasing cent ofAustralian strongly. In 1993 China accounted for 15 per cent of trade in iron ore Australia's iron ore exports of 11 1 million tonnes. in 1993-China 's steel industry-1992, 'Review of China's steel demand' in Drysdale, P. (ed.
DESCRIPTION The purpose of this review is to highlight some of the more significant issues associ... more DESCRIPTION The purpose of this review is to highlight some of the more significant issues associated with electricity pricing in South Africa and its impact on the economy. In providing our note on this issue, we have had regard to a substantial body of research carried out by others, and synthesized selected parts of their analysis so as to highlight what we believe are some of the fundamental issues and implications at hand.
ACER MARCH 2016 LIVINGSTON, ZAMBIA, 2016
Asset valuation typically plays an important role in determination of regulated tariffs, and acco... more Asset valuation typically plays an important role in determination of regulated tariffs, and accordingly the methodology employed in valuation of such assets provides a rich source of academic analysis and applied case study. The topic of asset valuation is made more interesting given the range of valuation methodologies to choose from-that the choice of methodology often has a significant impact on deemed prices-and that there is not a professional consensus or standard in which to guide practitioners needing to determine cost based prices or tariffs. Further motivated by the June 2015 Judgment of the Competition Appeal Court of South Africa in the matter between Sasol Chemical Industries Ltd and the Competition Commission we review competing asset valuation methodologies within the context of economic value, optimality, and price signalling-and in doing so identify some common myths and misconceptions gleaned from this case and others. "Economists are people who know the price of everything and the value of nothing." George Bernard Shaw.
SAAEE, 2001
The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) has recently prescribed the use of internat... more The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) has recently prescribed the use of international benchmark prices in authorization of the maximum price of natural gas piped and sold into the South African market. The benchmark prices are taken from major trading hubs in the US, the UK and the Netherlands which NERSA deems to be "suitable benchmark