Americans Reject Chip Exports to China - American Compass (original) (raw)

Executive Summary

In early May 2026, American Compass partnered with YouGov to survey 1,000 Americans about their views on China and its access to American technology.

Americans are receiving mixed messages on China from both political parties and younger Americans, especially, see economic integration as positive. While most Americans are skeptical of sharing technology or deepening the economic relationship, they are uncertain about the nature of the threat and unsure of what the alternative to cooperation might be. A much clearer strategy, and much clearer articulation of that strategy, will be necessary if the United States is to decouple successfully.

Attitudes Toward China

The survey first told respondents, “Over the last 25 years the United States has opened free trade with China and built a close economic relationship,” and then asked, “Overall, has this been good or bad for the United States?”

ATTITUDES TOWARD CHINA The U.S.-China economic relationship By party and generation Over the last 25 years the United States has opened free trade with China and built a close economic relationship. Overall, has this been good or bad for the United States? Very Good More Good Than Bad More Bad Than Good Very Bad 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% By party By generation Overall Democrat Independent Republican Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z 14% 45% 32% 9% 19% 59% 16% 12% 43% 37% 8% 9% 33% 44% 14% 39% 49% 10% 8% 41% 40% 11% 13% 39% 37% 11% 19% 47% 27% 20% 62% 12% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000

Responses vary significantly by party and generation. This becomes even clearer with the calculation of a “net positive” metric, equal to share of respondents saying “very good” or “more good than bad” less share saying “more bad than good” or “very bad.”

Only Republicans and the oldest generations have a negative view on balance, while younger Americans and Democrats have strongly positive views.

ATTITUDES TOWARD CHINA The U.S.-China economic relationship By party and generation Over the last 25 years the United States has opened free trade with China and built a close economic relationship. Overall, has this been good or bad for the United States? Net positive −25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% By party By generation Overall Democrat Independent Republican Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z 18% 56% 9% −16% −18% −2% 4% 33% 65% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000; Net Positive equals share responding “very good” or “more good than bad” less share responding “more bad than good” or “very bad”

A similar generational and partisan divide emerges on the geopolitical front, when asking, “Which of the following best describes China today?”

ATTITUDES TOWARD CHINA China: Friend or Foe? By party and generation An ally A potential partner An adversary A rival Not sure 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% By party By generation Overall Democrat Independent Republican Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z 15% 20% 34% 27% 22% 24% 31% 19% 15% 20% 35% 28% 8% 14% 39% 35% 11% 21% 31% 37% 11% 16% 32% 40% 17% 21% 40% 20% 16% 22% 30% 25% 18% 26% 38% 10% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000

Again, calculating a net metric, this time “net hostility,” highlights the divides by party and generation.

ATTITUDES TOWARD CHINA China: Friend or Foe? By party and generation Net hostility 0% 25% 50% 75% By party By generation Overall Democrat Independent Republican Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z 42% 24% 46% 62% 57% 60% 41% 32% 22% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000; Net Hostile equals share describing China as “a rival” or “an adversary” less share describing it as “an ally” or “a potential partner”

While the differing views on China may be in part political, they also appear to derive from different understandings of the Chinese regime and the nature of the economic relationship between the two countries. The survey asked respondents, “Many people would welcome an economic relationship with China but worry about the American companies selling products and technologies that could help China’s military. Which is closer to your view?”

ATTITUDES TOWARD CHINA Chinese Firms vs. the Chinese Military By party and generation China’s private companies are separate from its military, we can do business with one while steering clear of the other The Chinese Communist Party has control of both China’s private companies and the military so anything we do that helps one can also help the other 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% By party By generation Overall Democrat Independent Republican Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z 30% 70% 36% 64% 30% 70% 24% 76% 21% 79% 23% 77% 29% 71% 36% 64% 42% 58% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000

The majority view of Chinese firms intertwined with the Chinese military is held across the board, but declines steadily from right to left across the political spectrum and from older Americans to younger ones.

Policy Choices

On discrete choices for U.S. policymakers, the same divides persist. The survey’s first China policy question asked about investment by China in the United States:

Some people argue that the United States should encourage Chinese companies to invest and build factories here, creating jobs for Americans and giving American companies the chance to learn from their competitors.

Other people argue that the United States should prevent Chinese companies from operating here, because they will compete unfairly and use support from the Chinese government to ruin American companies, just like they did in China.

Which is closer to your view?

Attitudes toward China generally carry almost precisely over to attitudes toward investment from China in the United States, with Democrats and younger voters actively in favor.

POLICY CHOICES Chinese investment in the United States By party and generation We should encourage Chinese investment in the United States We should prevent Chinese investment in the United States 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% By party By generation Overall Democrat Independent Republican Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z 41% 59% 57% 43% 37% 63% 26% 74% 25% 75% 26% 74% 33% 67% 53% 47% 68% 32% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000

Likewise, on the issue of the competition to develop artificial intelligence, Americans are split 50/50 between those who believe “winning the AI race” is at least somewhat important and those who do not. Democrats and Gen Z are both more likely to say that AI is not a race than to say that it is very important for the United States to win the race.

POLICY CHOICES The AI race with China By party and generation Very important Somewhat important Not important AI is not a race Not sure 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% By party By generation Overall Democrat Independent Republican Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z 32% 18% 10% 25% 15% 21% 18% 14% 35% 12% 27% 21% 12% 23% 17% 49% 15% 19% 13% 42% 13% 35% 8% 36% 24% 20% 14% 37% 15% 8% 21% 19% 27% 17% 13% 28% 15% 20% 11% 20% 35% 14% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000 “AI is not a race” abbreviates the full response option “AI is not a ‘race,’ everyone benefits from technological progress”

And what are the concerns about China’s progress in artificial intelligence? Respondents were asked, “On a scale of 1 to 4, with 1 meaning ‘Not Concerned’ and 4 meaning ‘Very Concerned,’ how much does Chinese progress on AI concern you” on a set of six different dimensions. A Net Concern score was then calculated as the share of respondents responding 3 or 4 less the share responding 1 or 2. While the issue prioritization is quite consistent across generations, the overall level of concern varies dramatically.

POLICY CHOICES Concerns about China’s AI progress By generation Net concern Hacking Surveillance Superintelligence Military Manufacturing Biological research 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% −25% 67 72 50 45 53 40 83 76 77 77 54 51 74 63 60 59 44 38 52 57 40 32 13 15 18 38 36 36 8 −4 Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000; Net Concern equals share answering 3 or 4 (“very concerned” or next-most) less share answering 1 or 2 (“not concerned” or next-least) on a 1–4 scale

Finally, respondents were asked about exporting advanced AI chips to China. To help respondents engage with the issue’s nuance, the question was posed in two parts: First, allow the export of chips or not. Second, consider a more moderate option of allowing the export of chips a generation or two behind the leading edge. Respondents who first said not to allow chip exports were then asked whether they’d prefer a full ban or a ban on just the most advanced chips. Respondents who first supported chip exports were then asked whether they’d prefer to export all chips or only those behind the leading edge.

Based on the responses to both questions, respondents were grouped into three buckets along a single continuum: ban all chip exports; allow chip exports behind the leading edge; allow all chip exports. (See the appendix for the exact question wording and description of arguments on either side of the issue.) Alone among all the issues polled, on this one, restrictions are overwhelmingly popular across the political and generational spectrum and an outright ban has a clear majority among most groups.

POLICY CHOICES The AI chip export debate By party and generation Sell most advanced Sell less advanced only Prohibit any sale 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% By party By generation Overall Democrat Independent Republican Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z 9% 33% 58% 12% 38% 50% 10% 35% 55% 29% 67% 25% 72% 25% 69% 29% 65% 15% 40% 45% 12% 49% 39% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000; combined responses derived from two-part question

Why do people oppose exporting chips to China? A follow-up question asked those opposed to at least some exports which argument for restrictions they found most compelling. None did especially well, but on balance the argument that China must be denied access to such powerful technology was chosen most often.

POLICY CHOICES Why not export the chips? By preferred chip-export policy China’s strategy is always to welcome American companies, steal their technology, and then push them out. They did it with telecommunications equipment, and solar panels, and electric vehicles, and they will do it here too. We are in a race against China for AI leadership and should be trying to build the biggest possible lead. Anything we sell to China helps them and hurts us. AI technology is dangerous, and will be especially dangerous in the hands of an authoritarian regime like the Chinese Communist Party. We should do everything we can to deny them access to the technology. None of these are good arguments. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Ban most exports Ban all exports 29% 18% 26% 27% 18% 17% 44% 21% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 909 Filtered to respondents who would ban most (sell less-advanced chips only) or ban all AI chip exports to China

The China Hawks

Using responses to questions about China as friend or foe, investment from China, and chip exports to China, each respondent can be classified from China Dove (choosing the friendly view on all three) to China Hawk (choosing the confrontational view on all three).

Overall, more Americans are China Hawks than China Doves, though roughly half chooses some dovish positions and some hawkish ones.

THE CHINA HAWKS Hawks outnumber doves on China Share of respondents 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 12% 20% 29% 39% Strong Dove Lean Dove Lean Hawk Strong Hawk Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000 Respondents classified by responses to China hostility question and positions on investment and chip exports. Strong Doves gave 0 confrontational answers, Strong Hawks gave 3 confrontational answers.

But on the broad strategic question of whether the U.S. and China should be seeking economic cooperation or decoupling, most Americans – including most of the China Hawks who choose decoupling on each specific issue – still say they want to see greater economic cooperation when Presidents Trump and Xi meet in Beijing this week.

THE CHINA HAWKS Even most hawks want a Trump-Xi deal By China hawk score Next week, President Trump will travel to Beijing to meet with China’s President Xi. Which direction would you like him to move the U.S.-China relationship? He should try to get a deal that will increase economic cooperation between our countries Not sure He should take a hard line that will further separate our two economies 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% By hawk score Overall Strong Dove Lean Dove Lean Hawk Strong Hawk 66% 22% 12% 81% 17% 76% 22% 69% 25% 55% 21% 24% Source: American Compass AI & China Survey (May 2026) · N = 1,000

How that cooperation could or should look, neither the American people nor their leaders seem quite sure.

About the Data

The American Compass AI and China Survey was conducted by YouGov between May 1 and May 5, 2026. YouGov interviewed 1,039 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of registered voters in the US, based upon the 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements and the 2024 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), and a two-way stratification on race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

In analysis of the results, “Generation” is defined by birth year:

In the questions about export controls, the issue was described as follows:

When it comes to the advanced computer chips used for AI, the United States is far ahead of China. Some people say that we should sell AI chips to China, arguing that American companies will become the leaders in the Chinese market and the United States will gain a strategic advantage.

Other people say that we should prohibit the sale of AI chips to China, arguing that the United States should try to maintain the biggest possible lead over China in our quantity and quality of chips, and China would never let an American company control the Chinese market anyway.

The respondent could then select “We should sell AI chips to China” or “We should prohibit the sale of AI chips to China.”

In either case, the subsequent question explained:

Still on the topic of AI chips, people in a third group say that we can split the difference, selling China the AI chips that are a year or two behind the most advanced ones. They say this will achieve the best of both worlds, allowing American companies to win in the Chinese market while ensuring that the United States remains far ahead of China overall.

People who oppose this middle route say it will achieve the worst of both worlds, allowing China to expand its AI abilities more quickly, while still forcing it to develop its own Chinese alternatives to American chips as quickly as possible.

Respondents who had selected “sell AI chips” were given the options “We should sell the most advanced AI chips to China” and “We should only sell the less advanced AI chips to China.” Respondents who had selected “prohibit the sale of AI chips” were given the options “We should sell the less advanced AI chips to China” and “We should prohibit the sale of any AI chips to China.”

For the final classification, respondents are grouped as having selected “sell AI chips” and then “sell the most advanced AI chips” (“Sell Most Advanced”), selected either initial option and then the “less advanced” option on the second question (“Sell Less Advanced Only”), or selected “prohibit the sale” and then “prohibit the sale of any AI chips” (“Prohibit Any Sale”).