Graeme Snooks | The Australian National University (original) (raw)
Books by Graeme Snooks
IGDS eBooks, 2021
Mankind has always feared the future. We have always recognised the precariousness of life and so... more Mankind has always feared the future. We have always recognised the precariousness of life and sought to defend ourselves against the inevitable--physical decline and death. We look hopefully to forces greater than ourselves--to gods or science--for guidance and protection. Yet our precautionary efforts betray signs of desperation as we know that great societies of the past have crumbled into dust. Going beyond reason, humanity has developed Great Myths about its ability to control the forces of destiny. Even today in modern technological societies we invest the "masters of science"--such as medical, climate, and technological "experts"--with a god-like status; expecting them to intervene in the world to change its course and avoid catastrophe. In this book of essays, largely written during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020/21, I argue that by intervening in the dynamic processes of the economy, these "experts" rely not on science, but on metaphysical presumptions and ideology. These occupants of the Ship of Metaphysical Fools run the very real risk of damaging the dynamic core of human society, thereby causing massive loss of life and endangering the future of civilization. It has happened before, and will do so again unless we reject the metaphysical interventionists.
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IGDS Books, 2020
This book is the outcome of my project THE FUTURE OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION. It builds on my earlie... more This book is the outcome of my project THE FUTURE OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION. It builds on my earlier books DYNAMIC SOCIETY (1996), EPHEMERAL CIVILIZATION (1997), THE LAWS OF HISTORY (1998), THE COMING ECLIPSE (2010), DEAD GOD RISING (2010), and ARK OF THE SUN (2015). This project morphed into a new eBook entitled GREAT MYTHS TO DIE FOR. Essays on the Ship of Metaphysical Fools (February 2021)--see above.
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IGDS Books, 2017
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IGDS Books, 2016
This book embodies a search for the ultimate reality in life. It is about our true selves; about ... more This book embodies a search for the ultimate reality in life. It is about our true selves; about the real nature of good and evil, oppression and liberty, truth and lies; about the relentless reality of the life-system--the strategic logos--that enables us to survive and prosper; about the self-serving falseness of our ethical systems; and about the difficult but rewarding path to individual freedom. As this book is based on the author's highly original general dynamic theory of life, it provides a novel philosophical viewpoint.
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IGDS Books, 2015
ARK OF THE SUN provides an entirely new and holistic explanation of the origin and transformation... more ARK OF THE SUN provides an entirely new and holistic explanation of the origin and transformation of both life and human society -- and predicts their likely paths into the future -- by employing the author's revolutionary, demand-driven, general dynamic theory. This book provides the capstone to Graeme Snooks' extensive research, spanning five decades, on biological and social evolution.
ARK OF THE SUN shows and explains how life on Earth is driven and shaped by the newly discovered dynamic life system that the author calls the "strategic logos". The "logos" is an entropy-defying, shock-deflecting system that has enabled biological forms and their societies to prosper in a hostile world. It is a system composed of materialist forces conceptually similar to the cosmos analysed by physicists, and to the human mind studied by psychologists. And it is a system that must be understood if life is to survive deep into the future.
This book is essential to the understanding of life not only on Earth but also wherever else in the Universe it might have emerged. And the theories it contains make possible what the intellectual tradition stretching from the ancient Greeks, through Hegel, Schopenhauer, Marx, Darwin and Freud, down to the present, could never achieve -- a holistic understanding of biological and social dynamics.
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IGDS Books, 2011
Truth & the strategic logos.
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IGDS Books, 2010
DEAD GOD RISING provides a completely original explanation for the many religions and myths toget... more DEAD GOD RISING provides a completely original explanation for the many religions and myths together with their rise and fall--"dead god rising". The book's basic argument is that religion and the scientism that replaced it arose from humanity's attempt to sustain the hidden life-system (which I call the strategic logos) that is responsible for human survival and prosperity in an ever hostile physical and social environment.
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IGDS Books, 2010
THE COMING ECLIPSE is concerned with a critical choice of futures: either the adoption of a compr... more THE COMING ECLIPSE is concerned with a critical choice of futures: either the adoption of a comprehensive climate-mitigation program, or the emergence of a new technological revolution--the Solar Revolution. The adoption of one will eclipse the other.
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This is a reprint of the first edition published by Routledge in 1998. See further down list of b... more This is a reprint of the first edition published by Routledge in 1998. See further down list of books published by G.D. Snooks.
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This is a reprint of the first edition published in 1993. See later in this list of books publish... more This is a reprint of the first edition published in 1993. See later in this list of books published by G.D. Snooks.
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This is a reprint of the first edition published in 1997. See later in this list of books publish... more This is a reprint of the first edition published in 1997. See later in this list of books published by G.D. Snooks.
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A new approach to evolutionary biology.
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Economic History Review, 1995
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IGDS eBooks, 2021
Mankind has always feared the future. We have always recognised the precariousness of life and so... more Mankind has always feared the future. We have always recognised the precariousness of life and sought to defend ourselves against the inevitable--physical decline and death. We look hopefully to forces greater than ourselves--to gods or science--for guidance and protection. Yet our precautionary efforts betray signs of desperation as we know that great societies of the past have crumbled into dust. Going beyond reason, humanity has developed Great Myths about its ability to control the forces of destiny. Even today in modern technological societies we invest the "masters of science"--such as medical, climate, and technological "experts"--with a god-like status; expecting them to intervene in the world to change its course and avoid catastrophe. In this book of essays, largely written during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020/21, I argue that by intervening in the dynamic processes of the economy, these "experts" rely not on science, but on metaphysical presumptions and ideology. These occupants of the Ship of Metaphysical Fools run the very real risk of damaging the dynamic core of human society, thereby causing massive loss of life and endangering the future of civilization. It has happened before, and will do so again unless we reject the metaphysical interventionists.
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IGDS Books, 2020
This book is the outcome of my project THE FUTURE OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION. It builds on my earlie... more This book is the outcome of my project THE FUTURE OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION. It builds on my earlier books DYNAMIC SOCIETY (1996), EPHEMERAL CIVILIZATION (1997), THE LAWS OF HISTORY (1998), THE COMING ECLIPSE (2010), DEAD GOD RISING (2010), and ARK OF THE SUN (2015). This project morphed into a new eBook entitled GREAT MYTHS TO DIE FOR. Essays on the Ship of Metaphysical Fools (February 2021)--see above.
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IGDS Books, 2017
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IGDS Books, 2016
This book embodies a search for the ultimate reality in life. It is about our true selves; about ... more This book embodies a search for the ultimate reality in life. It is about our true selves; about the real nature of good and evil, oppression and liberty, truth and lies; about the relentless reality of the life-system--the strategic logos--that enables us to survive and prosper; about the self-serving falseness of our ethical systems; and about the difficult but rewarding path to individual freedom. As this book is based on the author's highly original general dynamic theory of life, it provides a novel philosophical viewpoint.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
IGDS Books, 2015
ARK OF THE SUN provides an entirely new and holistic explanation of the origin and transformation... more ARK OF THE SUN provides an entirely new and holistic explanation of the origin and transformation of both life and human society -- and predicts their likely paths into the future -- by employing the author's revolutionary, demand-driven, general dynamic theory. This book provides the capstone to Graeme Snooks' extensive research, spanning five decades, on biological and social evolution.
ARK OF THE SUN shows and explains how life on Earth is driven and shaped by the newly discovered dynamic life system that the author calls the "strategic logos". The "logos" is an entropy-defying, shock-deflecting system that has enabled biological forms and their societies to prosper in a hostile world. It is a system composed of materialist forces conceptually similar to the cosmos analysed by physicists, and to the human mind studied by psychologists. And it is a system that must be understood if life is to survive deep into the future.
This book is essential to the understanding of life not only on Earth but also wherever else in the Universe it might have emerged. And the theories it contains make possible what the intellectual tradition stretching from the ancient Greeks, through Hegel, Schopenhauer, Marx, Darwin and Freud, down to the present, could never achieve -- a holistic understanding of biological and social dynamics.
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IGDS Books, 2011
Truth & the strategic logos.
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IGDS Books, 2010
DEAD GOD RISING provides a completely original explanation for the many religions and myths toget... more DEAD GOD RISING provides a completely original explanation for the many religions and myths together with their rise and fall--"dead god rising". The book's basic argument is that religion and the scientism that replaced it arose from humanity's attempt to sustain the hidden life-system (which I call the strategic logos) that is responsible for human survival and prosperity in an ever hostile physical and social environment.
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IGDS Books, 2010
THE COMING ECLIPSE is concerned with a critical choice of futures: either the adoption of a compr... more THE COMING ECLIPSE is concerned with a critical choice of futures: either the adoption of a comprehensive climate-mitigation program, or the emergence of a new technological revolution--the Solar Revolution. The adoption of one will eclipse the other.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
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This is a reprint of the first edition published by Routledge in 1998. See further down list of b... more This is a reprint of the first edition published by Routledge in 1998. See further down list of books published by G.D. Snooks.
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This is a reprint of the first edition published in 1993. See later in this list of books publish... more This is a reprint of the first edition published in 1993. See later in this list of books published by G.D. Snooks.
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This is a reprint of the first edition published in 1997. See later in this list of books publish... more This is a reprint of the first edition published in 1997. See later in this list of books published by G.D. Snooks.
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A new approach to evolutionary biology.
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Economic History Review, 1995
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IGDS Working Papers, 2023
The holy grail of AI researchers has always been the achievement of human-level intelligence. The... more The holy grail of AI researchers has always been the achievement of human-level intelligence. The fundamental questions, however, are whether this will ever be achieved, and, if so, how? With a few notable exceptions, most researchers in the AI community feel this is decades, even centuries, away, because of major technical and economic obstacles that block the path. And even if AGI is ever achieved, many are concerned about the likely impact on human civilization. But in all cases AI researchers are only making intelligent guesses, owing to the fact that they do not have, or even recognise, a realist general dynamic theory of life, society, and the human mind. The reason is that membership of the AI community is limited to experts trained in computer science, neuroscience and cognitive science. Their number does not include the critically important science of Life-Dynamics. This paper makes a case for the inclusion of research from the Science of Life-Dynamics--namely a general dynamic theory of life, society, and the human mind based on systematic observation and data analysis of the real world over long periods of time. This, it is argued, is the only way to achieve a full understanding of the emergence, existential functioning, and role of the human brain: the only way that AI will shed its current mindlessness. This theory not only provides a dynamic existential model of the mind, it also provides a more realistic test for the achievement of AGI-the "Dynamic-Strategy Test", by which robots with human-level intelligence will need to become "dynamic strategists" and join in the strategic pursuit for survival and prosperity. But this raises an even greater hurdle than a mechanical understanding of the mind, for it requires AI to acquire "strategic desire", the driving force in life. The question is, can this organic imperative ever be replicated artificially, and, if it could, wouldn't that result in the destruction of humanity by highly self-motivated robots determined to win the struggle for survival? These questions, and more, are discussed in this paper. And a general dynamic theory of the mind is sketched out to provide a more realistic roadmap for the journey to AGI. It is finally concluded that the science of life-dynamics needs to be added to the arsenal of the AI community. Until it does, AI will remain mindless. Greater detail can be found in my new book "PARADOX OF A MINDLESS AI: the compelling case for a general dynamic theory of the mind" (Snooks 2024).
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IGDS Working Papers #46, 2023
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IGDS Working Papers # 45, 2022
The Kura-Araxes culture flourished for a thousand years over a large area of Transcaucasia, north... more The Kura-Araxes culture flourished for a thousand years over a large area of Transcaucasia, northern Iran, upper Mesopotamia, eastern Anatolia, and the Levant as far south as the Sea of Galilee. Despite the brilliant work done by archaeologists from a surprisingly large number of countries--including Armenia, France, Italy, Russia, USA, Canada, and Australia--in revealing the characteristics and range of Kura-Araxes culture, the enigmatic status of its origins, expansion and demise remain. Indeed, the contrast between the mounting evidence of Kura-Araxes culture on the one hand and the puzzlement of scholars on the other, seems to be getting greater. Attempts to explain this cultural phenomenon with ad hoc partial "models" have proven futile. What is required to solve this enigma is the interrogation of the evidence by a realist general dynamic theory that has proven its worth in the study of many other societies in many other historical epochs. To this end, this paper employs a general dynamic theory--the "dynamic-strategy theory"--that I developed in the early 1990s and have subsequently applied to many societies over time. With this unified theory, which is based on systematic real-world observation, it is possible to explain the Kura-Araxes life-system, the driving motivation of its people, the dynamic engine underlying their expansion, and the ultimate demise of their culture. NOTE: in the revised version, Figure 4 has been added.
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IGDS Working Papers #44, 2022
The question about whether the meaning of life is a matter of science or metaphysics can be resol... more The question about whether the meaning of life is a matter of science or metaphysics can be resolved by examining the life-system underlying human society. This paper shows how the life-system I call the strategic logos, has emerged within the cosmos, how it deflects natural crises, how it defies entropy, and how it reveals the existential meaning of life. The cosmos, or physical universe, is relatively well known--it is even a subject of popular entertainment--but the logos, or universal life system, has remained hidden and unexplained until recently. This is why the scientific meaning of life is generally regarded as a great mystery. While the laws of physics determine the conditions under which the strategic logos has emerged, it is the laws of the logos--the laws of life and history--that determine the way in which organic life unfolds. These "logosian" laws have been discovered by the author through a systematic observation of the emergence and development of life and human society over the past 4,000 million years (myrs), and by the construction of a dynamic theory that explains these observations. These laws have been explored in my books The Laws of History (1998) and The Collapse of Darwinism (2003). In turn, this realist general dynamic theory has been employed to construct a model of the hidden strategic logos. As argued in this paper, it is the logos that explains the origin, evolution, and future of life on Earth in particular, and in the Universe in general. And, most pertinently here, it explains the meaning of life. Whether the meaning of life has any intrinsic value is another issue.
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IGDS Working Papers #43, 2022
Freedom is an issue central not only to philosophical enquiry, but also to wider human aspiration... more Freedom is an issue central not only to philosophical enquiry, but also to wider human aspiration. Philosophers have always debated the related concepts of "free will" and "individual freedom", while people throughout the world have fought and died for political control of their own lives. Both matters are dealt with in this paper. Employing my general dynamic theory of human society--the "dynamic-strategy theory"--it is shown that the road to freedom involves negotiating a major paradox--what is called the "Great Paradox of Life". Even when democracy is achieved, individuals are tightly constrained by the life-system (or "strategic LOGOS") that they serve. Avoiding the road to serfdom is not the same as taking the road to freedom. In this paper, a distinction is drawn between "strategic freedom"--those constrained economic and political freedoms allowed by the strategic LOGOS--and "ultimate freedom"--those wider intellectual and psychological freedoms that are achieved by acknowledging the strategic logos, but refusing to be defined by it. In effect, being in the LOGOS, but not of the LOGOS. This paper also discusses the "existential sensitivity curve", which measures the variable ability of human beings to achieve an accommodation between their desires and their reason. This curve was first introduced in my book ULTIMATE REALITY (Snooks 2015).
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IGDS Working Papers # 42, 2022
Truth has been a central subject in religious, philosophical, political, and popular discussion e... more Truth has been a central subject in religious, philosophical, political, and popular discussion ever since civilized societies first emerged. Many individuals, organisations, and societies have claimed to have discovered the truth about existence, and many more have professed their truthfulness. And certain key institutions, such as religious organisations, universities, the justice system, and the media, claim to be based on truth. Most of these claims are more than a little exaggerated. As Shakespeare's Hamlet might have said about truth: "it is a custom more honour'd in the breach than the observance". The truth is that truth is not central to the dynamics of human society. People prefer fantasy to truth, because truth undermines the desire to survive and prosper and, hence, endangers both the individual and the underlying life-system that I call the strategic logos. Two key aspects of truth are explored in this paper: seeking the truth about life; and telling the truth about motivations, actions, events, and situations. It is shown that these two aspects of truth are interrelated and have the same origins or causes. Where does the truth lie? There are two dimensions to this question, namely: Where is the truth distorted? And where does truth reside? Truth is distorted by the myth-makers, who are the perpetrators of the Great Lie-that relentless ideological attack on life and human society by the metaphysical interventionists. In contrast, the verifiable truth resides with the reality-seekers, who are life-affirming proponents. A wider context for this paper is provided by my recent book Ultimate Reality (Snooks 2015). ADDENDUM: The most egregious contemporary example of the violation of the truth (explained by this paper) is the global reaction to, and reporting of, the 2023/24 war between Israel and Hamas.
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IGDS Working Papers #41 (August), 2022
The problem of evil has attracted the attention of philosophers for at least the past three mille... more The problem of evil has attracted the attention of philosophers for at least the past three millennia. The Pre-Socratic Greek thinkers viewed good and evil in terms of the impact that individuals had upon the prosperity of the city-state. This strategic evaluation was rejected by Plato in favour of a metaphysical approach-an approach that prevailed throughout the pre-modern Western world. Most modern philosophers, however, see evil as a secular and existential issue. While contemporary philosophers have given increasing attention to the problem of evil--owing primarily to the impact of totalitarianism in the twentieth century and fundamentalist terrorism in the twenty-first century--they have failed to develop a general theory about society and the way its values are determined. Hence, contemporary analysis of evil is unconvincing, and has become part of the usual academic game of unrealistic and unhelpful disputation. In this paper, I provide a new realist theory--a strategic theory--of evil that has more in common with Pre-Socratic thinkers than those misled by Plato. In this context, the current conquest strategy of Vladimir Putin--the outcome of a Faustian bargain with the Russian people--is seen as inherently evil. ADDENDUM: The same is true of contemporary terrorism in the Levant.
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IGDS Working Papers # 40, 2022
"What is Man" is the anguished cry that echoes through the ages from at least the Sumerian Epic o... more "What is Man" is the anguished cry that echoes through the ages from at least the Sumerian Epic of Gilgamesh (c. 1600--1155 BC) and the ancient Greek poetry of Homer (c. 760 BC) to the creative writing of Shakespeare (c. 1600), Goethe (1770), Nietzsche (1885), and beyond. And the response over that long period of time has varied according to the strategic aspirations of the societies to which these great thinkers belonged. This paper provides an entirely new strategic interpretation of the nature and role of mankind based on my realist general dynamic theory of human society. Man is not the plaything of the gods or of fate as feared by the ancients; not the "measure of all things" as confidently asserted by Greek and Renaissance thinkers; not the tragic hero conjured up by the Romantics; not the bridge to a super being as willed by Nietzsche. Instead, as will be shown here, man is the active ephemeral agent within the hidden materialist life-system, which I have called the strategic logos. Readers interested in the strategic logos could consult my book ARK OF THE SUN (2015) and a recent paper "Strategic logos: the hidden materialist life-system" (2022c).
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IGDS Working Papers, 2022
The most intriguing feature of human society--and indeed of the rest of life--is the emergence of... more The most intriguing feature of human society--and indeed of the rest of life--is the emergence of order and complexity in a universe dominated by increasing entropy. And the most fascinating aspect of order and complexity is that it has arisen throughout history without any conscious human management. Indeed, whenever ideologically motivated individuals and groups--who I call metaphysical interventionists--attempt to achieve 'progressive' outcomes through the establishment of centralised controls, it all ends in disorder and chaos, with great human suffering. Surely the most searching question we can ask is: what is responsible for the unplanned order and complexity of our world? In our secular era--which rejects the metaphysical idea of divine intervention--the 'scientific' answer to this question--is that it emerges 'spontaneously' through supply-side agent interactions. This response is totally inadequate. In the present paper, it is argued that order and complexity are outcomes of an underlying dynamic mechanism that I call the strategic logos. The strategic logos is a hidden materialist system conceptually similar to the hidden materialist systems that physicists call the cosmos and the atomic world. The objective here is to unveil that hidden materialist system, which is ephemeral not eternal, and particular to individual societies, not universal.
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IGDS Working Papers, 2022
Human society has reached a critical crossroad in history. The global dynamic process that has dr... more Human society has reached a critical crossroad in history. The global dynamic process that has driven the prosperity and freedoms embodied in Western civilization is grinding to a halt. The narrowing opportunities for humanity as population presses on technologically defined resources is generating protests, ugly competition, disputes, wars, and a loss of confidence in our political and social institutions. How the world reacts to this crisis over the next few decades will determine the fate of both Western civilization and the rest of the world. Prospects, however, are not bright. Not because the underlying dynamic mechanism of global change is malfunctioning, but because so-called "progressives"--who are really metaphysical interventionists--are attempting to reshape the world using pseudo-science, which is unable to realistically interpret the dynamics of human society. These radical interventionists are engaged in mythmaking rather than reality construction. If they have their way--and they are currently enjoying major successes--the world will experience the establishment of a global command system that will block the natural transition to a new and higher state of technological achievement. I call this outcome the "Dutch windmill syndrome". The outcome will be a massive reduction in material prosperity, the loss of individual liberty, and a huge loss of life. Essentially it will involve "the dying of the light". There is, however, a better way, which is outlined in this paper from the INSTITUTE OF GLOBAL DYNAMIC SYSTEMS (Canberra). Note: unfamiliar terms and concepts are explained in the Appendix.
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IGDS Working Papers # 37, 2022
The success of national leaders depends fundamentally on the nature of the dynamic strategies the... more The success of national leaders depends fundamentally on the nature of the dynamic strategies they pursue. In turn, the types of dynamic strategies that possess the potential for success are determined by their historical era. These issues are critical to any evaluation of Putin's unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine, in February 2022. Any attempt to pursue dynamic strategies unsuited to the prevailing technological paradigm will be self-defeating and will lead to societal collapse. Examples of this in the modern industrial era include the conquest strategies of Napoleonic France, Nazi Germany, and Stalinist Russia. The basic reason for this strategic failure and societal collapse is that, in the modern world, the conquest strategy is no longer economically viable. Why? Because investment in technological change generates a much higher economic return than conquest is capable of; and because any nation pursuing the conquest strategy cannot compete in the longer term with those societies employing the technological strategy. This is explained by my dynamic-strategy theory (DST) outlined in Part Two of this essay. The fatal error made by Vladimir Putin is the pursuit of a conquest strategy--aimed at generating economic growth by extending the land resources of modern Russia and acquiring a coerced labour force (i.e. slaves!)--in the modern technological world. Why has the Russian President done this? Essentially, because he is a failed strategic leader. By persisting with this unrealistic conquest strategy in the Ukraine and beyond, Putin's gross miscalculation may well lead to the collapse of Russian society and to the loss of the dictator's personal authority and even his removal from office. In any event, the Russian dictator is subjecting Ukraine and its people to mass destruction, death, and immiseration.
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IGDS Working Papers, 2021
In his final works, written during the 1880s, Nietzsche was concerned with developing a new set o... more In his final works, written during the 1880s, Nietzsche was concerned with developing a new set of social and political values to replace those of Christianity, now that God was dead. He wanted to revalue all values, and in the process to make way for a new type of mankind--the Ubermensch or overman--who would transform the world. This was envisaged by Nietzsche as a metaphysical process involving two key concepts: selfcreation and eternal recurrence. Yet Nietzsche never developed a formal philosophical system to examine these key concepts or to integrate them with the many other insights that surged from his fertile mind. Instead, he spiralled towards the flame of insanity--Nietzsche's spira mirabilis--and burnt himself out. What has been attempted in this essay is to show how a general dynamic theory--what I call the "dynamic-strategy theory"--can be used to extend and employ these concepts in a realist philosophical system.
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IGDS Working Papers #35, 2021
Mankind has always feared the future. We have always recognised the precariousness of life and so... more Mankind has always feared the future. We have always recognised the precariousness of life and sought ways to defend ourselves against the inevitable--from physical decline and death. The surrounding ruins of earlier civilizations remind us of our fate. We look hopefully to forces greater than ourselves--to gods or science--for guidance or protection. Yet our precautionary efforts betray signs of desperation, as we know that all great societies of the past have crumbled into dust. Still we hope to succeed where those that went before us failed. This is our belief, despite all evidence and logic to the contrary.
In order to go beyond reason, mankind has developed great myths about its ability to control the forces of destiny. These great myths provide the confidence required to live without total despair and to be able to step confidently into the future. Great myths about gods and super heroes have emerged in all societies in the past. Even today in modern technological societies we invest the masters of science, such as medical, climate and technological scientists, with a god-like status. We expect them to be able to cure all maladies of the body and mind, to protect us from the terrorist attacks of disease, to transform our hostile world into a human-friendly universe, and to provide a soft landing for exponential technological change that, some say, is projecting us at neck-breaking speed into the future. Surely it will take god-like powers to change the world's climate, to control the "technological singularity" and, ultimately, to transcend the natural force of entropy that threatens to eliminate all life in the universe.
This article is Essay One in my book GREAT MYTHS TO DIE FOR: ESSAYS ON THE SHIP OF METAPHYSICAL FOOLS (IGDS eBooks: February 2021). Recall what Sebastian Brant wrote in THE SHIP OF FOOLS (1494):
"The world is full of superstition,
Men prophesy by star's position
And every fool deems this his mission
The whole world wants to be deceived."
Surely this is an apt description of the proceedings of the November 2022 Climate Summit in Egypt!
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IGDS Working Papers, 2021
Effective myth-busting must employ a scientific methodology. Accordingly, a forensic global-histo... more Effective myth-busting must employ a scientific methodology. Accordingly, a forensic global-historical approach is adopted in this paper to debunk the conventional wisdom not only about the mission of Jesus of Nazareth-who I accept as an historical figure-but also about his sudden disappearance, real cause of death, influence on the subsequent development of Christianity, and the alleged role of Christianity in reshaping world history. It is a project employing a realist general dynamic theory. I developed this theory from a systematic study of global historical patterns in a series of more than 30 books and many articles over the past 55 years. The outcome of this study is threefold. First, it provides a radical new interpretation of the mysterious disappearance and death of Jesus-death, not by crucifixion, but by drowning. This explodes the great myth of Easter. And second, it shows how the Gospel writers attempted to convert an early drowning story into a miracle story (Jesus walking on water) in order to make way for the relatively late crucifixion narrative. The reasons for this theological sleight of hand are explored in a unique world-historical framework. This is a revised reissue of my earlier paper entitled "From the depths: Recovering the original precrucifixion story about the death by drowning of Jesus of Nazareth" IGDS Working Papers #32 (December 2020).
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IGDS Working Paper, 2021
It is hard to believe that the free world has taken so readily to switching-off their economies a... more It is hard to believe that the free world has taken so readily to switching-off their economies at the slightest pretext-to locking up their citizens and paralysing their societies. Governments around the world rationalise this as merely following the advice of medical "experts" during a pandemic. But the real reason is a failure of strategic leadership that has been emerging over the past couple of decades, culminating in the Great Lockdown crisis of 2020/21. It beggars belief because medical "experts' have absolutely no expertise in economics or, even more importantly, in societal dynamics. Further, while these medical advisors recognise the dangers of switching-off the brains of traumatised individuals, they fail to realise that the same dangers arise from switching-off healthy economies. In this paper I explore the parallels between the selfconscious brain and the "culturally-aware" metropolis-explore, in other words, the metropolis of the mind. This analysis casts light not only on the current crisis of coronavirus leadership, but also on the elusive condition of selfconsciousness. The outcome is a new general theory of "strategic-awareness" that encompasses the comparable conditions of selfconsciousness and cultural-awareness.
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IGDS Working Papers #32, 2020
A global-historical approach is adopted in this paper to challenge the conventional wisdom not on... more A global-historical approach is adopted in this paper to challenge the conventional wisdom not only about the mission of Jesus of Nazareth--who I accept as an historical figure--but also about his sudden disappearance, real cause of death, influence on the subsequent development of Christianity, and the alleged role of Christianity in reshaping world history. It is a forensic project based on a scientific approach to history that employs a realist general dynamic theory. I developed this theory from a systematic study of global historical patterns in a series of 30 books and many articles over the past 55 years. The outcome of this study is two-fold. First, it provides a radical new interpretation of the mysterious disappearance and death of Jesus--DEATH BY DROWNING. And second, it shows how the Gospel writers attempted to convert an early drowning story into a miracle story (Jesus walking on water) in order to make way for the relatively late crucifixion narrative. The reasons for this theological sleight of hand are explored in a world-historical framework. This is a study for my research project: TRANSCAUCASIA, THE LEVANT, AND BEYOND: THE DYNAMICS OF PEOPLE, DNA, AND IDEAS, 6,000 to 2,000 bp.
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IGDS Working Papers # 31, 2020
Societal dynamics is a field of study that orthodox economics has not managed to master. This is ... more Societal dynamics is a field of study that orthodox economics has not managed to master. This is because of its dependence on a narrowly focused mathematical-deductive methodology. The resulting growth theory, both "exogenous" and "endogenous", provides limited insights about real-world dynamic processes, and has no useful real-world applications. Owing to its microeconomic foundations (the theory of the firm), it focuses on the production function, which is a static, supply-side concept. The argument in this paper is that the production function does not actually exist at the macro level and, therefore, has no place in economic dynamics. It is a theoretical fiction. My dynamic-strategy theory-based on an inductive methodology-shows that real-world dynamics is a strategic pursuit, not a production process; and that the appropriate model is a demand-side, not a supply-side, construct. At the heart of this real-world dynamic process is the strategic demand-response mechanism; and central to this mechanism is the strategy function, which orchestrates the supply response. The strategy function describes the relationship between the strategic outcome of survival and prosperity (which drives real-world dynamics) and the strategic instruments (strategic ideas, organisations, and leadership) by which it is achieved. In real-world dynamics, the realist strategy function displaces the virtual production function.
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IGDS Working Papers #30, 2020
Formal inflation targeting, which was introduced internationally in the early 1990s, has been eva... more Formal inflation targeting, which was introduced internationally in the early 1990s, has been evaluated by orthodox economists as "a success". But successful at what? Its rationale, which is supported neither by a general dynamic theory nor by historical/empirical studies of the relationship between growth and prices, is the presumption that the containment of inflation to low levels will ensure both shortrun economic stability and longrun prosperity. Initially these targets were set at 0-2% pa (New Zealand), but later relaxed slightly to 2-3% pa. By employing a general dynamic theory and estimating the growth-inflation curve for the UK and USA over several timeframes, this paper shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, inflation targeting since the early 1990s has constrained not only prices but also economic growth--to rates half of those achieved in the previous period 1961 to 2019. Also, this study has uncovered a new economic concept, the Inflation-Targeting Trap--a low level trap from which growth rates have been unable to break free. As inflation targeting is contributing to the stagnation of Western civilization, it should be abandoned.
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IGDS Working Papers #29 (November), 2020
The outcome of the US Presidential election of November 2020 has just been announced. Joe Biden h... more The outcome of the US Presidential election of November 2020 has just been announced. Joe Biden has defeated Donald Trump, but not by the landslide predicted by the "experts" and polls (as usual!) Nevertheless, the trajectory of the American economy and society is about to be changed. A new choice of futures is about to be made. Will it be the correct choice? Will America retreat into gentrified mediocrity or advance into an era of unparalleled greatness by initiating the next technological paradigm shift? Will the new trajectory be accepted by the 75 million people who voted for Trump? Will social and racial unrest die down or ramp up? My analysis in this paper suggests that under a Biden "politically-correct" leadership--which will deliver the nation into the hands of inexperienced and unworldly "experts"--America will most probably remained mired in the economic strategic exhaustion that has gripped the nation since the turn of the century. And it will continue to be disrupted by social unrest, which can only be resolved through economic transformation, not moral posturing. In this eventuality, America will fail to catch the next great wave of history. Its only hope for a renewal of prosperity and social harmony, and for continued world leadership, is to find a real strategic leader before the 2024 Presidential election; and to hope this will not be too late.
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IGDS Working Papers # 28, 2020
The rise of modern science, from the mid-16th century to the present, is widely considered to hav... more The rise of modern science, from the mid-16th century to the present, is widely considered to have been kick-started by the 'scientific revolution' between 1550 and 1700. The sudden emergence of the 'scientific revolution', which has long excited the interest of historians and natural scientists, is regarded as the spring board of the modern age. While the rise of modern science has been documented in considerable detail, historians have struggled to provide a persuasive explanation for both its timing and location in Western Europe. The conventional approach is to provide a list of 'causal factors' that is supposed to explain this unique event. The outcome is entirely unpersuasive. In this paper, I have employed a general dynamic theory to provide a powerful explanation of the emergence of science in the modern world and to answer questions such as: Why did the precocious emergence of science in the ancient world (Phoenicia and Greece) breakdown?; Why was China unable to invent a 'scientific revolution'? (the Needham puzzle); Was the 'scientific revolution' really a revolution?; and Will the rise of modern science be followed by a fall, as in the ancient world? Also see my related paper "How the Needham puzzle was solved in the early 1990s".
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