Ida Kubiszewski | The Australian National University (original) (raw)

Papers by Ida Kubiszewski

Energies, 2021

In early 2020, Indonesia implemented the biodiesel 30 (B30) program as an initiative to reduce In... more In early 2020, Indonesia implemented the biodiesel 30 (B30) program as an initiative to reduce Indonesia’s dependency on fossil fuels and to protect Indonesia’s palm oil market. However, palm oil has received international criticism due to its association with harmful environmental externalities. This paper analysed whether an investment in palm oil-based biofuel (POBB) provides Indonesia with the ability to achieve its environmental and financial goals. In this research, we performed a meta-analysis on biofuel energy return on investment (EROI) by examining 44 biofuel projects using ten types of biofuel feedstocks from 13 countries between 1995 and 2016. Results showed an average EROI of 3.92 and 3.22 for POBB and other biomass-based biofuels (OBBB), respectively. This shows that if only energy inputs and outputs are considered, biofuels provide a positive energy return. However, biofuels, including those from palm oil, produce externalities especially during land preparation and land restoration. We also compared these EROI biofuel results with other renewable energy sources and further analysed the implications for renewable energies to meet society’s energy demands in the future. Results showed that biofuel gives the lowest EROI compared to other renewable energy sources. Its EROI of 3.92, while positive, has been categorised as “not feasible for development”. If Indonesia plans to continue with its biofuel program, some major improvements will be necessary.

Ecosystem Services, 2020

Cyclones cause significant damage, particularly to coastal areas. In the 50 years between 1967 an... more Cyclones cause significant damage, particularly to coastal areas. In the 50 years between 1967 and 2016, 54 cyclones struck Australia with total damages of approximately AUD 3 billion. Wetlands diminish cyclone impacts by absorbing storm surges and slowing winds. We examine the effects of wetlands on cyclone damage by creating a Bayesian regression model for storm damage as a function of wind speed, economic development in the storm swath, and the area of wetlands in the coastal plain in the storm swath using data from all 54 storms. Our results show that wind speed has a strong positive effect on cyclone damage and that wetland area has a strong negative effect. We estimate a total of AUD 29.6 billion of damage was averted during the 54 storms because of the presence of wetlands with a median of AUD 236 million per storm. This equates to an average of AUD 4203 per year per hectare of wetland, consistent with previous studies. Our results suggest that preserving wetlands is a cost-effective way to minimize cyclone damage while providing numerous other valuable ecosystem services. We estimate that maintaining at least 1.5% of coastal area as wetlands maximizes the averted damage.

PLOS ONE, 2020

While self-reported life satisfaction (LS) has become an important research and policy tool, much... more While self-reported life satisfaction (LS) has become an important research and policy tool, much debate still surrounds the question of what causes LS to change in certain individuals, while not in others. Set-point theory argues that individuals have a relatively resilient LS or "set point" (i.e. there is a certain LS level that individuals return to even after major life events). Here, we describe the extent to which LS varies over time for 12,643 individuals living in Australia who participated in at least eight annual waves of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. We use the standard deviation (SD) of year-on-year LS by individuals (SD of LS) as a measure of instability and an inverse proxy for resilience. We then model SD of LS as the dependent variable against average LS scores over time by individual, Big Five personality scores by individual, the number of waves the individual participated in, and other control variables. We found that SD of LS was higher (lower resilience) in participants with a lower average LS and greater degrees of extraver-sion and agreeableness. Set-point theory thus applies more to individuals whose average LS is already high and whose personality traits facilitate higher resilience. We were able to explain about 35% of the stability in LS. These results are critical in designing policies aimed at improving people's lives.

Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, 2020

We explore the implications of four scenarios for the value of ecosystem services provided by ter... more We explore the implications of four scenarios for the value of ecosystem services provided by terrestrial ecosystems to the year 2050 for Latin America and the Caribbean, based on the Great Transition Initiative scenarios and previous studies at a global scale. We estimated the current ecosystem services value (ESV) of the 33 countries that make up this region to be US15.3trillion/year.Bymodellingthefourfuturescenarios,weestimatedthatthereisapotentialforESVtodecreasetoUS15.3 trillion/year. By modelling the four future scenarios, we estimated that there is a potential for ESV to decrease to US15.3trillion/year.Bymodellingthefourfuturescenarios,weestimatedthatthereisapotentialforESVtodecreaseto8 trillion/year (for the "Fortress World" scenario) or an increase to $19 trillion/year (for the "Great Transition" scenario), a difference of a 47% decrease or a 25% increase. Our results indicate that adopting appropriate policies could greatly enhance human well-being and sustainability in the region and help to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Forest Policy and Economics, 2020

To achieve the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement, a significant reduction in carbon dioxi... more To achieve the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement, a significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions is needed, as well as increased removals by carbon sinks. In this context, we argue that Climate-Smart Forestry is a necessary, but still missing component in national strategies for implementing actions under the Paris Agreement. Climate-Smart Forestry is needed to (a) increase the total forest area and avoid deforestation, (b) connect mitigation with adaption measures to enhance the resilience of global forest resources, and (c) use wood for products that store carbon and substitute emission-intensive fossil and non-renewable products and materials. Successful Climate-Smart Forestry has important policy implications on finding the right balance between short and long-term goals, as well as between the need for wood production, the protection of biodiversity and the provision of other important ecosystem services. CSF thus can provide important co-benefits that are increasingly being recognized as essential for sustainable well-being

Sustainability, 2019

Increasingly, empirical evidence refutes many of the theoretical pillars of mainstream economics.... more Increasingly, empirical evidence refutes many of the theoretical pillars of mainstream economics. These theories have persisted despite the fact that they support unsustainable and undesirable environmental, social, and economic outcomes. Continuing to embrace them puts at risk the possibility of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and overcoming other global challenges. We discuss a selection of paradoxes and delusions surrounding mainstream economic theories related to: (1) efficiency and resource use, (2) wealth and wellbeing, (3) economic growth, and (4) the distribution of wealth within and between rich and poor nations. We describe a wellbeing economy as an alternative for guiding policy development. In 2018, a network of Wellbeing Economy Governments (WEGo), (supported by, but distinct from, the larger Wellbeing Economy Alliance-WEAll) promoting new forms of governance that diverge from the ones on which the G7 and G20 are based, has been launched and is now a living project. Members of WEGo aim at advancing the three key principles of a wellbeing economy: Live within planetary ecological boundaries, ensure equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, and efficiently allocate resources (including environmental and social public goods), bringing wellbeing to the heart of policymaking, and in particular economic policymaking. This network has potential to fundamentally reshape current global leadership still anchored to old economic paradigms that give primacy to economic growth over environmental and social wealth and wellbeing.

Ecological Economics, 2019

What people consider important, and how these factors contribute to their self-reported life sati... more What people consider important, and how these factors contribute to their self-reported life satisfaction (LS), varies significantly across regions. Here, we analyse for the first time how LS varies across space and what factors best explain LS at different locations. Geographically weighted regressions (GWR) were used to analyse the relationship between LS and seventeen objective variables across Australia. We find that contributors to LS vary considerably but individuals living in relative proximity to each other share similar perspectives. Taking into account the spatially explicit heterogeneity of a population allows for the assessment of federal policies at local or regional levels, increasing the likelihood that their impacts will be consistent with the original intent. It also enables the perspectives of the diversity of cultures within a nation to be better understood.

Ecosystem Services, 2019

China has relied on seawalls for storm protection along its coasts for decades. In contrast, the ... more China has relied on seawalls for storm protection along its coasts for decades. In contrast, the storm protection functions of coastal wetlands are often ignored by decision makers in China. We examined 127 historical storms with consequent economic loss to China from 1989 to 2016 and estimated the value of coastal wetlands with controlling for seawalls for storm protection. A regression model with the natural log of damage per unit gross domestic product in the storm swath as the dependent variable and explanatory variables including the length of existing seawalls in the storm swath and the natural logs of wind speed, storm duration and wetland area in the storm swath was highly significant and explained 59.2% of the variation in relative damages. Results show that a gain of 1 km 2 of wetlands corresponds to an average CNY 83.90 million (median = CNY 11.87 million) decrease in storm damage from specific storms. Coastal wetlands are gifts of nature and self-maintaining so they have zero construction and maintenance costs. They also provide many other valuable ecosystem services that hard sea-walls do not.

PeerJ, 2019

Indicators that attempt to gauge wellbeing have been created and used at multiple spatial scales... more Indicators that attempt to gauge wellbeing have been created and used at multiple spatial scales around the world. The most commonly used indicators are at the national level to enable international comparisons. When analyzing subjective life satisfaction (LS), an aspect of wellbeing, at multiple spatial scales in Australia, variables (drawn from environmental, social, and economic domains) that are significantly correlated to LS at smaller scales become less significant at larger sub-national scales. The reverse is seen for other variables, which become more significant at larger scales. Regression analysis over multiple scales on three groups (1) all individuals within the sample, (2) individuals with self-reported LS as dissatisfied (LS ≤ 5), and (3) individuals self-reporting LS as satisfied (LS > 5), show that variables critical for LS differ between subgroups of the sample as well as by spatial scale. Wellbeing measures need to be created at multiple scales appropriate to the purpose of the indicator. Concurrently, policies need to address the factors that are important to wellbeing at those respective scales, segments, and values of the population.

Coastal regions provide vital ecosystem services for the human well-being. Rapid economic growth ... more Coastal regions provide vital ecosystem services for the human well-being. Rapid economic growth and increasing population in coastal regions is exerting more pressure on coastal environments. Here we develop four plausible scenarios to the year 2050 that address above issues in the northern Adelaide coastline, South Australia. Four scenarios were named after their characteristics, Lacuna, Gold Coast SA, Down to Earth, and Green & Gold. Lacuna and Gold Coast SA. Economy declined significantly in Lacuna, whereas, there is highest annual GDP growth (3.5%) in Gold Coast SA, which was closely followed by Green & Gold scenario (3%), GDP under Down to Earth grows at moderate 1.5%. There is highest population growth in Gold Coast SA followed by Green & Gold, Down to Earth and Lacuna. Gold Coast SA scenario led to high inequality as estimated by the Gini co-efficient of 0.45 compared to the current value of 0.33. Ecosystem services declined rapidly under Green & Gold and Lacuna as compared to the other two scenarios. The combination of scenario planning and ecosystem services valuation provides the capacity to guide coastal planning by illustrating enhanced social, environmental and economic benefits.

The Mekong River is the largest freshwater fishery and the third most bio-diverse river system in... more The Mekong River is the largest freshwater fishery and the third most bio-diverse river system in the world. Two of 11 planned mainstream hydropower projects, Xayaburi and Don Sahong, are nearly completed and a third project proposal, Pak Beng, has been submitted by the Lao PDR government for consideration. This paper builds on previous studies and examines the tradeoffs (between water use, food security supply and energy production) for the proposed mainstream hydropower projects in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). The paper concludes that the forecast loss of capture fisheries, sediment/nutrients and social mitigation costs measured as Net Present Value (NPV at 10% discount rate) are greater than the benefits from electricity generation, improved irrigation and flood control. The paper also forecasts huge negative economic impacts for Cambodia and Vietnam in contrast to previous Mekong River Commission's (MRC) conclusions that all countries will benefit from hydropower development. The paper recommends reassessing the economic impacts of hydropower development using full environmental cost accounting. It also recommends that a new LMB energy strategy be developed taking into account less hydropower income than previously anticipated, updated forecasts for LMB power demand and anticipated technology developments for improved energy efficiency & renewable energy (especially solar which is now competitive with hydropower).

Ecosystem Services, 2017

▪ To bring together a collection of national and international researchers. ▪ To share papers and... more ▪ To bring together a collection of national and international researchers. ▪ To share papers and tools that have been developed by participants in order to inform this debate. ▪ To draft several papers around the valuation of ecosystem services with regard to focal points including water, climate mitigation and adaptation, offsets, invasive alien species management, fire, restoration of denuded land and bush encroached areas, and utilization of available biomass. ▪ To make space for engagement in all draft papers using a participatory groupthink framework in order to garner input from all participants. ▪ To contribute to unlocking investments in ecological infrastructure through making the economic case for the valuation of ecosystems.

Ecological infrastructure (EI) refers to ecosystems that deliver services to society, functioning... more Ecological infrastructure (EI) refers to ecosystems that deliver services to society, functioning as a nature-based equivalent of, or complement to, built infrastructure. EI is critical for socioeconomic development, supporting a suite of development imperatives at local, national and international scales. This paper presents the myriad of ways that EI supports sustainable development, using South Africa and the South African National Development Plan as a case study, linking to the Sustainable Development Goals on a global level. We show the need for EI across numerous development and sustainability issues, including food security, water provision, and poverty alleviation. A strategic and multi-sectoral approach to EI investment is essential for allocating scarce public and private resources for achieving economic and social-ecological priorities. Opportunities to unlock investment in EI, both internationally and on the national level, are identified. This includes leveraging private sector investment into landscape management and integrating the costs of managing EI into public sectors that benefit directly from ecosystem services, such as the water sector and infrastructure development. Additionally, investing in EI also aligns well with international development and climate change funds. Investment in EI from a range of innovative sources supports global and national development, while complementing other development investments.

South Africa is increasingly putting itself into an undesirable state of ecological deficit. Regu... more South Africa is increasingly putting itself into an undesirable state of ecological deficit. Regulatory and other interventions are needed to stop and reverse ecosystem degradation. Biodiversity offsets are seen as one possible method of mitigating the current trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services loss in the country. However, for offsetting to succeed in practice, a number of barriers will have to be overcome. This paper discusses concerns raised by South African stakeholders as part of a policy development process implemented by the Department of Environmental Affairs and proposes how the identified barriers may be overcome in the South African setting.

It has been 20 years since two seminal publications about ecosystem services came out: an edited ... more It has been 20 years since two seminal publications about ecosystem services came out: an edited book by Gretchen Daily and an article in Nature by a group of ecologists and economists on the value of the world's ecosystem services. Both of these have been very highly cited and kicked off an explosion of research, policy, and applications of the idea, including the establishment of this journal. This article traces the history leading up to these publications and the subsequent debates, research, institutions, policies, on-the-ground actions, and controversies they triggered. It also explores what we have learned during this period about the key issues: from definitions to classification to valuation, from integrated modelling to public participation and communication, and the evolution of institutions and governance innovation. Finally, it provides recommendations for the future. In particular, it points to the weakness of the mainstream economic approaches to valuation, growth, and development. It concludes that the substantial contributions of ecosystem services to the sustainable wellbeing of humans and the rest of nature should be at the core of the fundamental change needed in economic theory and practice if we are to achieve a societal transformation to a sustainable and desirable future.

Societies, like individuals, can become addicted to patterns of detrimental and unsustainable beh... more Societies, like individuals, can become addicted to patterns of detrimental and unsustainable behavior. We can learn from one of the most successful therapies at the individual scale, motivational interviewing (MI). MI is based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their goals, motives, and futures. One analogy to MI at the societal level is community engaged scenario planning, which can engage entire communities in building consensus about preferred alternative futures via public opinion surveys and forums. Effective therapies for societal addictions are possible, but require re-balancing effort away from only pointing out the dire consequences of current behavior and toward also building a truly shared vision of a positive future and ways to get there.

We estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for 4 alternative global la... more We estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for 4 alternative global land use and management scenarios based on the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) scenarios to the year 2050. We used previous estimates of the per biome values of ecosystem services in 2011 as the basis for comparison. We mapped projected land-use for 16 biomes at 1 km 2 resolution globally for each scenario. This, combined with differences in land management for each scenario, created estimates of global ecosystem services values that also allowed for examinations of individual countries. Results show that under different scenarios the global value of ecosystem services can decline by 51trillion/yrorincreasebyUSD51 trillion/yr or increase by USD 51trillion/yrorincreasebyUSD30 trillion/yr. In addition to the global values, we report totals for all countries and maps for a few example countries. Results show that adopting a set of policies similar to those required to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing and sustainability.