Alexander Vuving | Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (original) (raw)

Uploads

Papers by Alexander Vuving

Rappler, 2018

South China Sea expert Alexander Vuving talks to Rappler about fears of a big war erupting in the... more South China Sea expert Alexander Vuving talks to Rappler about fears of a big war erupting in the disputed seas, the role of the Philippines as a 'swing state' between the US and China, and how he thinks President Duterte should manage the dispute moving forward.

The Diplomat, 2023

Should Vietnam prioritize land or sea in its quest for security? This is not a straightforward qu... more Should Vietnam prioritize land or sea in its quest for security? This is not a straightforward question as it first appears.

Thời đại mới TẠP CHÍ NGHIÊN CỨU & THẢO LUẬN, 2004

Quan hệ Việt Nam-Trung Quốc, cũng như nhiều quan hệ địa chính trị khác, có hai mặt: hình thức và ... more Quan hệ Việt Nam-Trung Quốc, cũng như nhiều quan hệ địa chính trị khác, có hai mặt: hình thức và thực chất. Hai mặt này không phải bao giờ cũng tương đồng. Về mặt hình thức, quan hệ Việt-Trung được định vị trong khuôn khổ một mô hình thế giới có tính chuẩn tắc mà cả hai thế lực cầm quyền ở Trung Quốc và ở Việt Nam cùng công nhận. Song về thực chất, quan hệ giữa Việt Nam và Trung Quốc phản ánh sự cọ sát, đụng độ hoặc thỏa hiệp giữa những viễn tượng khác nhau về trật tự thế giới, xét cho cùng là phản ánh tương quan lực lượng giữa các thế lực lãnh đạo đại diện cho các viễn tượng thế giới khác nhau. Sự chia sẻ và tranh chấp trật tự thế giới được thực hiện thông qua đại chiến lược và được thể hiện thông qua lễ nghi. Tìm hiểu đại chiến lược của Việt Nam và Trung Quốc, giải mã lễ nghi trong tiếp xúc và trao đổi giữa hai nước (đúng hơn là hai thế lực địa chính trị), sẽ cho câu trả lời về tính chất và đặc điểm của mối quan hệ Việt-Trung. Bài viết này điểm qua mối quan hệ Việt-Trung trong 22 thế kỷ lịch sử của nó, đặc biệt tập trung vào giai đoạn từ thập niên 1970 cho đến nay.

Security Nexus, Oct 1, 2014

, China unilaterally deployed a giant drilling rig in waters claimed by Vietnam as its exclusive ... more , China unilaterally deployed a giant drilling rig in waters claimed by Vietnam as its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The move led to a fierce confrontation between Chinese and Vietnamese government vessels and shrank relations between the two countries to the lowest point since 1988. The standoff also served as a litmus test to identify who will side with whom in this conflict. While most of the world remained neutral, several states came out to support Vietnam in one form or another. Among these supporters, the United States and Japan stood out as the most powerful and staunchest. The fault line between Vietnam, the United States, and Japan on one side and China on the other can be seen as one between status quo and revisionist powers. The former share the same objective of maintaining the balance of power that has kept the region in peace for the last two decades. China, with a long period of rapid economic growth in the last three decades, appears to be determined to use its newfound power to assert its sovereignty claims, which in end effect would amount to its dominance of the region. The prospects of regional security hinges heavily on how these actors relate to the South China Sea issue. This paper will focus on the three status quo powers; particularly, I will examine the strategies of Vietnam, the commitment of the United States, and the role of Japan regarding the South China Sea issue. B Vietnam, the United States, and Japan in the South China Sea

Security Nexus, Nov 15, 2018

Overview of Vietnam's National Interests In Vietnam's policy discourse, the concept of national i... more Overview of Vietnam's National Interests In Vietnam's policy discourse, the concept of national interests is sometimes used in distinction from the interests of particular social classes and sometimes in contrast to ideology. The discourse has witnessed in the decades following the Cold War's end a steadily increasing emphasis on the national interest that implies that national interests should trump class interests and ideology if there is a conflict between them. This emphasis also gave rise to a broader sense of national interests understood as encompassing the needs for survival and development of the nation that are recognized and pursued by national leaders as the fundamental objectives of national policy. In this sense, national interests subsume ideological concerns and reflect the interests of both the ruling class and the nation at large. This chapter uses the term "national interests" in this broader sense. Key policy documents in Vietnam occasionally speak about "the highest interests" of the country. Throughout the reign of the Communist Party, these interests are identified as "building socialism and defending the socialist Fatherland." In more specific terms, they include economic development, protection of the socialist state, independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Entering the post-Cold War era, in July 1992, the Central Committee of Vietnam's ruling Communist Party (VCP) passed two resolutions that set the guidelines for the country's foreign and security policy in the following years. These resolutions stated, "the highest and most sacred interests of our nation as well as our working class is to successfully build socialism in our country and firmly protect the socialist Fatherland, to protect our independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, to achieve rapid socioeconomic development, and to make the people rich and the country strong." 1 In July 2003, in the wake of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the VCP Central Committee issued a new national security strategy that updated previous strategies to the new global situation. This strategy, usually referred to as Resolution No. 8 of 2003, identifies "industrialization and modernization with socialist orientation" as the central goals,

Digitally signed by Dự án Đại Sự Ký Biển Đông DN: cn=Dự án Đại Sự Ký Biển Đông, o=daisukybiendong... more Digitally signed by Dự án Đại Sự Ký Biển Đông DN: cn=Dự án Đại Sự Ký Biển Đông, o=daisukybiendong.word press.com,

Southeast Asian Affairs 2023, Apr 17, 2023

If the post-Cold War era is defined as a period when great power cooperation generally prevails o... more If the post-Cold War era is defined as a period when great power cooperation generally prevails over great power competition, its final demise arrived in 2022 with the intensification of US-China full-spectrum strategic competition, Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine and heightened hostilities between Moscow and the West. This chapter chronicles the key developments of Vietnam’s economy, domestic politics and foreign relations during the year, thus shedding light on how Vietnam has navigated the end of the post-Cold War era. It argues that the Vietnamese leadership needs to shed certain assumptions of a bygone era, including those about the linear trajectory of globalization, world peace, development, and great power cooperation. The post-post–Cold War era—characterized by heightened geopolitical tensions—brings about a different set of benefits and challenges to Vietnam, which requires its leadership to update their worldview when charting the country’s course forward.

Asian Politics & Policy, Jul 1, 2015

Should you only ever have the time to read one book, then Geoff Dyer's The Contest of the Century... more Should you only ever have the time to read one book, then Geoff Dyer's The Contest of the Century is the one that I would recommend. Dyer's book combines richness in local knowledge with a depth in strategic thinking, and covers all the key aspects of the struggle that will shape and define world politics in the coming decades. Meticulous research and experienced common sense undergird the book's insights, which are immensely stimulating for thinking further about the subject. The book is a story about the seeds of the future that are growing in the present. It foresees a future where China and the United States compete for power and influence, and in the process, mold and remold "the rules, institutions, and power dynamics which dictate how the world really works" (p. 13). This competition is already under way, and the book sheds light on how the rivalry is playing itself out in its three different fronts-military, political, and economic. All the key issues of this power rivalry are discussed in this book. They range from the territorial and maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas to the question of humanitarian intervention and the debate on human rights versus state sovereignty, from nationalism to soft power, from China's effort to challenge the U.S. dollar's primacy to the U.S. military plans to respond to the rise of China, and from cyber warfare to globalization with Chinese characteristics. Dyer's key argument is that China is an aspiring great power rather than an economic giant obsessed with development at home or a communist regime insecure about its hold on power. As he notes (p.

Journal of Asian security and international affairs, Aug 1, 2019

Bristol University Press, Mar 20, 2023

This chapter argues that the realities of civil–military relations in Vietnam defy the Western mo... more This chapter argues that the realities of civil–military relations in Vietnam defy the Western models that dominate the literature. The control architecture underlying this relationship is based on the mutual embeddedness of the military and the Communist Party. While the Party exerts political control over the military, the military’s participation and influence in elite politics and policymaking are not only legitimate but also an integral part of the architecture. The chapter explicates the architecture of Vietnam’s civil–military relations and charts the military’s influence in politics since the Third Indochina War. It shows that, paradoxically, military conflict is not the only and not even the main reason for a surge in the military’s influence in Vietnamese politics and foreign policy after the Cold War. The military gained more influence because it assumed a major political role. While the military’s influence has been on the wane recently, the Party’s control continues to prevail over the trends of commercialization and professionalization.

Social Science Research Network, 2019

What is soft power? Where does it come from? How does it work? This paper outlines the basic sket... more What is soft power? Where does it come from? How does it work? This paper outlines the basic sketch of a theory of soft power by addressing these questions, operationalizing the distinctive features, key sources, and causal mechanisms of soft power. Disentangling two orthogonal dimensions in Joseph Nye's full spectrum of power behaviors, I map the power behaviors with a two-dimensional continuum that distinguishes between power-over and power-with on one hand, and between hard and soft terms of the power process on the other. I argue that the "soft" in soft power does not mean intangible or gentle, as most of the discourse on soft power assumes; rather it refers to the soft terms of the power process and the symmetry of positive freedom between the participants in this process. Soft power is a form of power-with that works through the diffuse reciprocity of social exchange. It is contrasted with the traditional concept of power that equates it with power-over and with the specific reciprocity of economic exchange. Soft power comes in three flavors rooted in three kinds of positive agential qualities: kindness, competence, and commitment. It emerges from the social exchange of kindness, coalition benefits, deference benefits, competence benefits, and commitments to a shared goal, value, identity, or belief between its participants. Three families of agential qualities-kindness, competence, and commitment-give rise to three species of soft power through signaling and perception. This theory suggests that positive agential qualities and social exchange, as the sources and 3 | Vuving L o g i c o f A t t r a c t i o n mechanism of soft power, deserve far more attention in the study of international relations, and that soft power is best to be studied with an interdisciplinary approach.

: Between May and July 2014, China unilaterally deployed a giant drilling rig in waters claimed b... more : Between May and July 2014, China unilaterally deployed a giant drilling rig in waters claimed by Vietnam as its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The move led to a fierce confrontation between Chinese and Vietnamese government vessels and shrank relations between the two countries to the lowest point since 1988. The standoff also served as a litmus test to identify who will side with whom in this conflict. While most of the world remained neutral, several states came out to support Vietnam in one form or another. Among these supporters, the United States and Japan stood out as the most powerful and staunchest. The fault line between Vietnam, the United States, and Japan on one side and China on the other can be seen as one between status quo and revisionist powers. The former share the same objective of maintaining the balance of power that has kept the region in peace for the last two decades. China, with a long period of rapid economic growth in the last three decades, appears to b...

Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2019

Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2018

Nikkei Asia, 2022

Ever since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, Beijing has had the long-term ... more Ever since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, Beijing has had the long-term ambition to overtake the U.S. In Mao's time, China's rivalry with the U.S. was open but far from comprehensive. It was neither open nor comprehensive in Deng's time, as the Soviet Union was then the focus for both Washington and Beijing. But now the two are open, comprehensive rivals under Xi.
Great power rivalry stems from the fact that the international system needs a leading power and tends to allocate more influence, prestige and resources to that nation, which in turn can spur a contest for supremacy. Nuclear deterrence has massively reduced fatalities for clashing great powers but can substantially lengthen the duration of conflict.

The Diplomat, 2022

Subscribe to Diplomat All-Access Enjoy full access to the website and get an automatic subscripti... more Subscribe to Diplomat All-Access Enjoy full access to the website and get an automatic subscription to our magazine with a Diplomat All-Access subscription.

Rappler, 2018

The Diplomat, 2023

Thời đại mới TẠP CHÍ NGHIÊN CỨU & THẢO LUẬN, 2004

Security Nexus, Oct 1, 2014

Security Nexus, Nov 15, 2018

Southeast Asian Affairs 2023, Apr 17, 2023

Asian Politics & Policy, Jul 1, 2015

Journal of Asian security and international affairs, Aug 1, 2019

Bristol University Press, Mar 20, 2023

Social Science Research Network, 2019

Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2019

Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2018

Nikkei Asia, 2022

The Diplomat, 2022

principal methods of achieving those objectives. 3 For a polity, this process involves the answer... more principal methods of achieving those objectives. 3 For a polity, this process involves the answering of four basic questions. The first question addresses the nature of the world and its answer refers to policymakers' world outlook. The second question addresses the polity's identity while its answer refers to how policymakers perceive the threat to their polity's survival. The third question addresses the polity's ambitions and its answer refers to the standing in the world policymakers desire for their polity. Finally, the fourth question addresses the ways and means of achieving the goals and objectives defined in the answers to the second and third questions. Geopolitically, this specifies the roles other players in the world should play in the overall plan thus completed and the strategies facing these players.

Vietnam: Navigating a Rapidly Changing Economy, Society, and Political Order, 2023

Tracing the evolution of Vietnamese foreign policy since the 1980s, this chapter identifies four ... more Tracing the evolution of Vietnamese foreign policy since the 1980s, this chapter identifies four major turning points in its trajectory. Each turning point was triggered by an event or series of events that profoundly altered the strategic environment of Vietnam’s quest for resources, security, and identity. These events exerted an enormous impact not only on the conditions under which the country operates but also on Vietnamese views of the world and the key actors in their international environment. When Vietnam’s ruling elites responded to these changes, they set in motion corresponding changes in Vietnam's domestic and foreign policy. The foreign policy periods bracketed by the turning points thus roughly corresponded with phases in the evolution of the Vietnamese state. This paper will tease out the complex relationships between the international environment, the nature of the Vietnamese state, and Vietnamese foreign policy, and shed light on the worldviews and motives behind Vietnam’s foreign policy.
The key challenge to current Vietnamese foreign policy, which was also its main shortcoming in the last three decades, is that Vietnam’s policymakers often view the world through the prism of a bygone era. The last section of the paper will briefly scan the horizon for the next turning point in Vietnamese foreign policy.

Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Thinking about Security in the Indo-Pacific, 2020

The essay revolves around three questions: What tips the balance of power among the great powers?... more The essay revolves around three questions: What tips the balance of power among the great powers? Apart from the general balance of power, what are the key structures of great power relations? What shapes and changes these structures, and why?

In the second, future-oriented, part, the essay focuses on these questions: What will perpetuate and what will arrest great power competition? How do the key structures of great power competition shape the hegemonic contest of our time? What strategies are critical to winning that contest? Apart from the great powers, what emerging actors can cause profound changes and disrupt the balance of global power in the coming decades?

Throughout the 52-century long history of great power competition, human dynamics, technology, and geography are the most consequential and most permanent factors that have shaped the interaction among the great powers. This essay mines the past for lessons about great power competition by examining the structural impact of these factors on the rise and fall of great powers, the balance of power among them, and the character of their relations.

In order to aid its analysis, the essay introduces three concepts that have not been discussed in the literature:

The system-changers: Actors that are not system-makers like the great powers but have the power to change the international system and disrupt the balance of power among the system-makers. Today, Big Tech companies that are the gate-keepers of the cyber domain are increasing such system-changers besides the Islamic fundamentalists who have disrupted the balance among the great powers since the dawn of the 21st century.
The strategic structure of great power competition: A structure that emerges from the interaction of the players’ preferences and determines the best strategies for the players as well as the stable outcomes of their game. The essay argues that the Thucydides Trap does not exist in the US-China rivalry because the strategic structure of this rivalry is that of either a Game of Chicken or a Peace-lover’s Dilemma, not that of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Using game theory and geopolitics, the essay is able to make long-term predictions and strategy implications for the US-China rivalry.
The peace-lover’s dilemma: An asymmetric game whose stable outcome—its Nash equilibrium—is the dominance of the more aggressive player over the less aggressive player, hence it is a dilemma for the game’s peace-loving player. The peace-loving player may care more about the fairness and healthiness of competition than winning, or it may prefer sharing power with the other to its own supremacy. Its behavior is less aggressive than that of the player who wants to win rather than care about the fairness or healthiness of the competition, or who prefers its own supremacy to sharing power with the other.

In China's Global Influence: Perspectives and Recommendations, 2019

This chapter answers the three questions in its subtitle and has three sections: 1) Understandin... more This chapter answers the three questions in its subtitle and has three sections:

Understanding Strategic Messaging
The PRC's Strategic Messaging
An American Strategy for Response

Southeast Asian Affairs 2019. Eds. Daljit Singh and Malcolm Cook (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2019), 2019

Doi moi was launched in 1986 to reform Vietnam’s totalitarian state, but instead of making Vietna... more Doi moi was launched in 1986 to reform Vietnam’s totalitarian state, but instead of making Vietnam a new “Asian tiger”, it led to a rent-seeking state that nurtured rampant corruption and caused a prolonged period of economic slowdown. This rent-seeking state has been on a full correction course since 2016, but where will this path lead? This chapter examines the major developments in Vietnam’s domestic politics, economic life, and foreign relations that occurred in 2018 in order to assess the country’s trajectory. These developments include the attacks on the ‘Big Four’ rent-seeking networks in the political-business complex, a two-front battle against both corruption and liberalism, popular protests, leadership selection, developments regarding the drivers of economic growth, and Vietnam’s navigation of the geopolitical torrents.

Asia's Middle Powers? The Identity and Regional Policy of South Korea and Vietnam, eds. Joon-Woo Park, Gi-Wook Shin, Donald W. Keyser, 2013

Living with China: Regional States and China Through Crises and Turning Points, eds. Shiping Tang, Mingjiang Li, Amitav Acharya. NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009

Negotiating Asymmetry: China's Place in Asia. Eds. Anthony Reid and Zheng Yangwen (Singapore: NUS Press, 2009), 2009

Southeast Asian Affairs 2008. Daljit Singh and Tin Maung Maung Than, eds. (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2008), Jan 1, 2008

Southeast Asian Affairs 2010. Ed. by Daljit Singh (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2010), Jan 1, 2010

Who are the key players of Vietnamese politics? What characterizes its dynamics? What is to be ex... more Who are the key players of Vietnamese politics? What characterizes its dynamics? What is to be expected of it in the next few years? This essay is an attempt to address the above questions. It suggests that the Vietnamese government is caught primarily between regime conservatives, modernizers, rent-seekers, and China. The politics of Vietnam is featuring four dynamics including the confluence of money, power, and world views, the crisis of Vietnam's growth model, the rise of mainstream elite civil society, and Vietnam's efforts to self-help in China's backyard. This essay will outline the contours of Vietnamese politics through an examination of its four players and four features, illustrated by events and developments throughout 2009. It concludes with forecasts about Vietnam's economic, domestic, and foreign policy in the near future.

Southeast Asian Affairs 2013. Ed. by Daljit Singh (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2013), 2013

Over the last 26 years, Vietnam’s Communist Party-ruled state has evolved into a rent-seeking sta... more Over the last 26 years, Vietnam’s Communist Party-ruled state has evolved into a rent-seeking state whose ethos is to create barriers and extract rents from society rather than to transform society into a one that is imbued with socialist values (the classical communist state) or to facilitate rapid economic growth (the developmental state). The year 2012 marked a dramatic milestone on the road of this rent-seeking state towards a crisis. The chapter chronicles the year’s most important events and spotlights the key dynamics of Vietnam’s economy, politics, and foreign relations. It argues that a key feature of Vietnam’s domestic politics was the clash between group led by VCP General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung respectively. It also discusses the major dilemmas facing Vietnam’s, foreign policy.

Southeast Asian Affairs 2017, eds. Daljit Singh and Malcolm Cook (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2017), 2017

In January 2016 the 12th Congress of Vietnam's Communist Party elected a new set of leaders to go... more In January 2016 the 12th Congress of Vietnam's Communist Party elected a new set of leaders to govern the country in the next five years. It was the result of an intense power struggle within the ruling elite, culminating in an unprecedented political duel between General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. To the surprise of most observers, the apparently more powerful Dung was defeated. How to make sense of this event? What are the underlying currents that drove it? What characterizes the new constellation and what does it mean for Vietnams domestic and foreign policies in the years to come? This chapter explores the dynamics that made this stunning leadership change possible. It also puts the new leadership constellation into perspective and assesses the long-term implications of this leadership change.

Routledge, 2017

This is a chapter in a volume titled "Chinese-Japanese Competition and the East Asian Security Co... more This is a chapter in a volume titled "Chinese-Japanese Competition and the East Asian Security Complex: Vying for Influence", edited by Jeffrey Reeves, Jeffrey Hornung, and Kerry Lynn Nankivell.