Andrew R. Smith | Appalachian State University (original) (raw)

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Research paper thumbnail of Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People’s Preparations for It

Past research on the desirability bias and on bracing for bad news has focused on the potential i... more Past research on the desirability bias and on bracing for bad news has focused on the potential influence of outcome desirability on people’s stated expectations. The present studies examined its influence on behavior—that is, what is done in anticipation of, or preparation for, an uncertain outcome. In five studies, the desirability of possible outcomes for an event, which was uncertain and uncontrollable by the participant,
was manipulated, and preparation behavior was measured. Study 1 used a hypothetical-events paradigm. Studies 2 and 3 involved a computer activity in which behavior was tracked on a trial-by-trial basis. In Studies 4 and 5, the uncertain event was the ending of a videotaped basketball game. Rather than exhibiting bracing or a reluctance to tempt fate, participants tended to behave in a manner consistent with an optimistic
desirability bias. In a subset of studies, predictions and likelihood judgments were also solicited; the differential effects of outcome desirability on these measures are discussed.

Research paper thumbnail of Sample size bias in the estimation of means

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2010

The present research concerns the hypothesis that intuitive estimates of the arithmetic mean of a... more The present research concerns the hypothesis that intuitive estimates of the arithmetic mean of a sample of numbers tend to increase as a function of the sample size; that is, they reflect a systematic sample size bias. A similar bias has been observed when people judge the average member of a group of people on an inferred quantity (e.g., a disease risk; see . Until now, however, it has been unclear whether it would be observed when the stimuli were numbers, in which case the quantity need not be inferred, and "average" can be precisely defined as the arithmetic mean. In two experiments, participants estimated the arithmetic mean of 12 samples of numbers. In the first experiment, samples of from 5 to 20 numbers were presented simultaneously and participants quickly estimated their mean. In the second experiment, the numbers in each sample were presented sequentially. The results of both experiments confirmed the existence of a systematic sample size bias.

Research paper thumbnail of The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2010

Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results reg... more Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results regarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm-the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete predictions about desirable or undesirable cards being drawn from decks. We introduce a biased-guessing account for the effects from this paradigm, which posits that people are often realistic in their likelihood assessments, but when making a subjectively arbitrary prediction (a guess), they will tend to guess in a desired direction. In order to establish the validity of the biased-guessing account and to distinguish it from other accounts, we conducted five experiments that tested the desirability bias within the paradigm and novel extensions of it. In addition to supporting the biased-guessing account, the findings illustrate the critical role of moderators (e.g., type of outcome, type of forecast) for fully understanding and predicting desirability biases.

Research paper thumbnail of Are people excessive or judicious in their egocentrism? A modeling approach to understanding bias and accuracy in people's optimism

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2008

People are often egocentric when judging their likelihood of success in competitions, leading to ... more People are often egocentric when judging their likelihood of success in competitions, leading to overoptimism about winning when circumstances are generally easy and to overpessimism when the circumstances are difficult. Yet, egocentrism might be grounded in a rational tendency to favor highly reliable information (about the self) more so than less reliable information (about others). A general theory of probability called extended support theory was used to conceptualize and assess the role of egocentrism and its consequences for the accuracy of people's optimism in 3 competitions (Studies 1-3, respectively). Also, instructions were manipulated to test whether people who were urged to avoid egocentrism would show improved or worsened accuracy in their likelihood judgments. Egocentrism was found to have a potentially helpful effect on one form of accuracy, but people generally showed too much egocentrism. Debias instructions improved one form of accuracy but had no impact on another. The advantages of using the EST framework for studying optimism and other types of judgments (e.g., comparative ability judgments) are discussed.

Research paper thumbnail of The effect of target group size on risk judgments and comparative optimism: The more, the riskier

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2006

In 5 experiments, college students exhibited a group size effect on risk judgments. As the number... more In 5 experiments, college students exhibited a group size effect on risk judgments. As the number of individuals in a target group increased, so did participants' judgments of the risk of the average member of the group for a variety of negative life events. This happened regardless of whether the stimuli consisted of photographs of real peers or stick-figure representations of peers. As a result, the degree to which participants exhibited comparative optimism (i.e., judged themselves to be at lower risk than their peers) also increased as the size of the comparison group increased. These results suggest that the typical comparative optimism effect reported so often in the literature might be, at least in part, a group size effect. Additional results include a group size effect on judgments of the likelihood that the average group member will experience positive and neutral events and a group size effect on perceptual judgments of the heights of stick figures. These latter results, in particular, support the existence of a simple, general cognitive mechanism that integrates stimulus numerosity into quantitative judgments about that stimulus.

Research paper thumbnail of Sample size bias in judgments of perceptual averages

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2014

Previous research has shown that people exhibit a sample size bias when judging the average of a ... more Previous research has shown that people exhibit a sample size bias when judging the average of a set of stimuli on a single dimension. The more stimuli there are in the set, the greater people judge the average to be. This effect has been demonstrated reliably for judgments of the average likelihood that groups of people will experience negative, positive, and neutral events and also for estimates of the mean of sets of numbers . The present research focuses on whether this effect is observed for judgments of average on a perceptual dimension. In 5 experiments we show that people's judgments of the average size of the squares in a set increase as the number of squares in the set increases. This effect occurs regardless of whether the squares in each set are presented simultaneously or sequentially; whether the squares in each set are different sizes or all the same size; and whether the response is a rating of size, an estimate of area, or a comparative judgment. These results are consistent with a priming account of the sample size bias, in which the sample size activates a representation of magnitude that directly biases the judgment of average.

Research paper thumbnail of The European consumers’ understanding and perceptions of the “organic” food regime: The case of aquaculture

British Food Journal, 2004

This paper explores consumer understanding and perception of organic food, with speciWc reference... more This paper explores consumer understanding and perception of organic food, with speciWc reference to the relatively new concept of organic farmed salmon. Key themes associated with the term "organic"and its meaning, as determined by consumers, are explored and the role of labelling and regulatory authorities considered. Focus groups in Wve countries (UK, Germany, Spain, Norway and France) consisting of 196 participants showed that most consumers are confused about the meaning of the term organic and are largely unaware of the organic certiWcation and labelling process. Many consumers were unsure, even sceptical about the concept of organic farmed salmon and display a large amount of distrust in the regulatory process. The implications for the concept of organic food and salmon production and directions for further research are discussed.

Research paper thumbnail of Hoping for more: the influence of outcome desirability on information seeking and predictions about relative quantities

Cognition, 2012

People must often engage in sequential sampling in order to make predictions about the relative q... more People must often engage in sequential sampling in order to make predictions about the relative quantities of two options. We investigated how directional motives influence sampling selections and resulting predictions in such cases. We used a paradigm in which participants had limited time to sample items and make predictions about which side of the screen contained more of a critical item. Sampling selections were biased by monetary desirability manipulations, and participants exhibited a desirability bias for both dichotomous and continuous predictions.

Research paper thumbnail of Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People’s Preparations for It

Past research on the desirability bias and on bracing for bad news has focused on the potential i... more Past research on the desirability bias and on bracing for bad news has focused on the potential influence of outcome desirability on people’s stated expectations. The present studies examined its influence on behavior—that is, what is done in anticipation of, or preparation for, an uncertain outcome. In five studies, the desirability of possible outcomes for an event, which was uncertain and uncontrollable by the participant,
was manipulated, and preparation behavior was measured. Study 1 used a hypothetical-events paradigm. Studies 2 and 3 involved a computer activity in which behavior was tracked on a trial-by-trial basis. In Studies 4 and 5, the uncertain event was the ending of a videotaped basketball game. Rather than exhibiting bracing or a reluctance to tempt fate, participants tended to behave in a manner consistent with an optimistic
desirability bias. In a subset of studies, predictions and likelihood judgments were also solicited; the differential effects of outcome desirability on these measures are discussed.

Research paper thumbnail of Sample size bias in the estimation of means

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2010

The present research concerns the hypothesis that intuitive estimates of the arithmetic mean of a... more The present research concerns the hypothesis that intuitive estimates of the arithmetic mean of a sample of numbers tend to increase as a function of the sample size; that is, they reflect a systematic sample size bias. A similar bias has been observed when people judge the average member of a group of people on an inferred quantity (e.g., a disease risk; see . Until now, however, it has been unclear whether it would be observed when the stimuli were numbers, in which case the quantity need not be inferred, and "average" can be precisely defined as the arithmetic mean. In two experiments, participants estimated the arithmetic mean of 12 samples of numbers. In the first experiment, samples of from 5 to 20 numbers were presented simultaneously and participants quickly estimated their mean. In the second experiment, the numbers in each sample were presented sequentially. The results of both experiments confirmed the existence of a systematic sample size bias.

Research paper thumbnail of The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2010

Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results reg... more Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results regarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm-the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete predictions about desirable or undesirable cards being drawn from decks. We introduce a biased-guessing account for the effects from this paradigm, which posits that people are often realistic in their likelihood assessments, but when making a subjectively arbitrary prediction (a guess), they will tend to guess in a desired direction. In order to establish the validity of the biased-guessing account and to distinguish it from other accounts, we conducted five experiments that tested the desirability bias within the paradigm and novel extensions of it. In addition to supporting the biased-guessing account, the findings illustrate the critical role of moderators (e.g., type of outcome, type of forecast) for fully understanding and predicting desirability biases.

Research paper thumbnail of Are people excessive or judicious in their egocentrism? A modeling approach to understanding bias and accuracy in people's optimism

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2008

People are often egocentric when judging their likelihood of success in competitions, leading to ... more People are often egocentric when judging their likelihood of success in competitions, leading to overoptimism about winning when circumstances are generally easy and to overpessimism when the circumstances are difficult. Yet, egocentrism might be grounded in a rational tendency to favor highly reliable information (about the self) more so than less reliable information (about others). A general theory of probability called extended support theory was used to conceptualize and assess the role of egocentrism and its consequences for the accuracy of people's optimism in 3 competitions (Studies 1-3, respectively). Also, instructions were manipulated to test whether people who were urged to avoid egocentrism would show improved or worsened accuracy in their likelihood judgments. Egocentrism was found to have a potentially helpful effect on one form of accuracy, but people generally showed too much egocentrism. Debias instructions improved one form of accuracy but had no impact on another. The advantages of using the EST framework for studying optimism and other types of judgments (e.g., comparative ability judgments) are discussed.

Research paper thumbnail of The effect of target group size on risk judgments and comparative optimism: The more, the riskier

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2006

In 5 experiments, college students exhibited a group size effect on risk judgments. As the number... more In 5 experiments, college students exhibited a group size effect on risk judgments. As the number of individuals in a target group increased, so did participants' judgments of the risk of the average member of the group for a variety of negative life events. This happened regardless of whether the stimuli consisted of photographs of real peers or stick-figure representations of peers. As a result, the degree to which participants exhibited comparative optimism (i.e., judged themselves to be at lower risk than their peers) also increased as the size of the comparison group increased. These results suggest that the typical comparative optimism effect reported so often in the literature might be, at least in part, a group size effect. Additional results include a group size effect on judgments of the likelihood that the average group member will experience positive and neutral events and a group size effect on perceptual judgments of the heights of stick figures. These latter results, in particular, support the existence of a simple, general cognitive mechanism that integrates stimulus numerosity into quantitative judgments about that stimulus.

Research paper thumbnail of Sample size bias in judgments of perceptual averages

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2014

Previous research has shown that people exhibit a sample size bias when judging the average of a ... more Previous research has shown that people exhibit a sample size bias when judging the average of a set of stimuli on a single dimension. The more stimuli there are in the set, the greater people judge the average to be. This effect has been demonstrated reliably for judgments of the average likelihood that groups of people will experience negative, positive, and neutral events and also for estimates of the mean of sets of numbers . The present research focuses on whether this effect is observed for judgments of average on a perceptual dimension. In 5 experiments we show that people's judgments of the average size of the squares in a set increase as the number of squares in the set increases. This effect occurs regardless of whether the squares in each set are presented simultaneously or sequentially; whether the squares in each set are different sizes or all the same size; and whether the response is a rating of size, an estimate of area, or a comparative judgment. These results are consistent with a priming account of the sample size bias, in which the sample size activates a representation of magnitude that directly biases the judgment of average.

Research paper thumbnail of The European consumers’ understanding and perceptions of the “organic” food regime: The case of aquaculture

British Food Journal, 2004

This paper explores consumer understanding and perception of organic food, with speciWc reference... more This paper explores consumer understanding and perception of organic food, with speciWc reference to the relatively new concept of organic farmed salmon. Key themes associated with the term "organic"and its meaning, as determined by consumers, are explored and the role of labelling and regulatory authorities considered. Focus groups in Wve countries (UK, Germany, Spain, Norway and France) consisting of 196 participants showed that most consumers are confused about the meaning of the term organic and are largely unaware of the organic certiWcation and labelling process. Many consumers were unsure, even sceptical about the concept of organic farmed salmon and display a large amount of distrust in the regulatory process. The implications for the concept of organic food and salmon production and directions for further research are discussed.

Research paper thumbnail of Hoping for more: the influence of outcome desirability on information seeking and predictions about relative quantities

Cognition, 2012

People must often engage in sequential sampling in order to make predictions about the relative q... more People must often engage in sequential sampling in order to make predictions about the relative quantities of two options. We investigated how directional motives influence sampling selections and resulting predictions in such cases. We used a paradigm in which participants had limited time to sample items and make predictions about which side of the screen contained more of a critical item. Sampling selections were biased by monetary desirability manipulations, and participants exhibited a desirability bias for both dichotomous and continuous predictions.