Michael Winther | Aarhus University; School of Business and Social Sciences (original) (raw)

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Thesis Chapters by Michael Winther

Research paper thumbnail of Cities in Motion - Linking Improved City Access to Urban Sprawl. The Case of Germany (1961-2011)

This study explores the role of highways and railroads on the degree of urban sprawl observed amo... more This study explores the role of highways and railroads on the degree of urban sprawl observed among 94 Larger Urban Zones (LUZs) in Germany between 1961 and 2011. Originally inspired by a series of recent papers from the U.S., Spain, and China, this study seeks to contribute to the regional understanding of sprawl and its conceived connection to the endowment of said varieties of infrastructure, by employing a joint TSLS-panel approach with time fixed effects, which rely on instruments constructed from data related to the German roads and railroads of the 19th century. Based on the theoretical extension of the AMM-model by Baum-Snow (2007a), two empirical relationships are assessed so as to capture and validate the predictions of the underlying theoretical framework. Consequently, the first part of the study seeks to estimate the effect of highways and railroads on the size of the observed central city populations, while the second attempts to estimate the impact of an increase in the distance between a suburb and the nearest infrastructural ac-cess point, on the size of the population living in the observed suburban communities.

Based on the split-sample estimates of the territories belonging to the former GDR and FRG, this paper successfully demonstrates that the extent of sprawl generated by highways and railroads varies significantly dependent on the region that is observed. Accordingly, the construction of an additional highway ray is only estimated to have had a mere negative impact of -1.7% on the size of the central city population in West Germany, whereas the construction of an additional railroad ray was found to be associated with a respective increase of 1.4% and 6.0% in the population of the West and East German city cores. Said results were verified by a battery of robustness checks, as well as the second empirical setup, which revealed that an increase in the distance between a suburb and the nearest highway ramp has had a negative impact on the growth of the German suburban population in both regions, depending on the proximity to the observed city cores.

The stated findings yield valuable insights on the historical shaping of the German cities and their suburbs, and may – from a policy perspective – be used to obtain a better understanding of the societal welfare gained from past infrastructural investments. The results of this paper act furthermore as a warning against future multi-country studies on the relationship between sprawl and transport-related endowments, by contesting the conclusions reached by Garcia-López, et al. (2015b), and its use of aggregated regional estimates for the case of Europe.

Research paper thumbnail of Cities in Motion - Linking Improved City Access to Urban Sprawl. The Case of Germany (1961-2011)

This study explores the role of highways and railroads on the degree of urban sprawl observed amo... more This study explores the role of highways and railroads on the degree of urban sprawl observed among 94 Larger Urban Zones (LUZs) in Germany between 1961 and 2011. Originally inspired by a series of recent papers from the U.S., Spain, and China, this study seeks to contribute to the regional understanding of sprawl and its conceived connection to the endowment of said varieties of infrastructure, by employing a joint TSLS-panel approach with time fixed effects, which rely on instruments constructed from data related to the German roads and railroads of the 19th century. Based on the theoretical extension of the AMM-model by Baum-Snow (2007a), two empirical relationships are assessed so as to capture and validate the predictions of the underlying theoretical framework. Consequently, the first part of the study seeks to estimate the effect of highways and railroads on the size of the observed central city populations, while the second attempts to estimate the impact of an increase in the distance between a suburb and the nearest infrastructural ac-cess point, on the size of the population living in the observed suburban communities.

Based on the split-sample estimates of the territories belonging to the former GDR and FRG, this paper successfully demonstrates that the extent of sprawl generated by highways and railroads varies significantly dependent on the region that is observed. Accordingly, the construction of an additional highway ray is only estimated to have had a mere negative impact of -1.7% on the size of the central city population in West Germany, whereas the construction of an additional railroad ray was found to be associated with a respective increase of 1.4% and 6.0% in the population of the West and East German city cores. Said results were verified by a battery of robustness checks, as well as the second empirical setup, which revealed that an increase in the distance between a suburb and the nearest highway ramp has had a negative impact on the growth of the German suburban population in both regions, depending on the proximity to the observed city cores.

The stated findings yield valuable insights on the historical shaping of the German cities and their suburbs, and may – from a policy perspective – be used to obtain a better understanding of the societal welfare gained from past infrastructural investments. The results of this paper act furthermore as a warning against future multi-country studies on the relationship between sprawl and transport-related endowments, by contesting the conclusions reached by Garcia-López, et al. (2015b), and its use of aggregated regional estimates for the case of Europe.