Bapon S H M Fakhruddin | The University of Auckland (original) (raw)

Books by Bapon S H M Fakhruddin

The forces of nature can have deadly and damaging consequences for societies and ecosystems that ... more The forces of nature can have deadly and damaging consequences for societies and ecosystems that stand in their path. Early warning systems offer one of the best defenses against the adverse effects of climate, water, weather and geologic hazards, although far too often this realization is made after disaster strikes.Heads Up! provides a useful review of early warning systems in operation today, while exploring a range of hazards including hurricanes, heat waves, floods, droughts, tsunami and volcanoes. With contributions from an international team of scientists, this practical handbook serves as a valuable contribution to our awareness and understanding of the role early warning systems play in disaster avoidance and reduction

Papers by Bapon S H M Fakhruddin

Progress in Disaster Science

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2019

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2019

Disasters exact a heavy toll globally. However, the degree to which we can accurately quantify th... more Disasters exact a heavy toll globally. However, the degree to which we can accurately quantify their impact, in particular mortality, remains challenging. It is critical to ensure that disaster data reliably reflects the scale, type, and distribution of disaster impacts given the role of data in: (1) risk assessments; (2) developing disaster risk management programs; (3) determining the resources for response to emergencies; (4) the types of action undertaken in planning for prevention and preparedness; and (5) identifying research gaps. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030s seven global disaster-impact reduction targets represent the first international attempt to systematically measure the effectiveness of disaster-impact reduction as a means of better informing policy with evidence. Target A of the Sendai Framework aims to “substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower the average per 100,000 global mortality rate in the decade 2020...

The work of Linked Open Data for Global Disaster Risk Research (LODGD) task group of CODATA is an... more The work of Linked Open Data for Global Disaster Risk Research (LODGD) task group of CODATA is an increasingly important activity linking four global milestones – the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), Paris Agreement for Climate Change and the New Urban Agenda (NUA)-Habitat III. The Sendai Framework recognises this need in its guiding principles: '<em>Disaster risk reduction requires a multi-hazard approach and inclusive risk-informed decision-making based on the open exchange and dissemination </em>of disaggregated data, including by sex, age and disability, as well as on easily accessible, up-to-date, comprehensible, science-based, non-sensitive risk information….' (Sendai Framework 2015 paragraph 19g). However, assessment processes are challenging, as they require collaboration and participation across multiple sectors, data integration, interpretation as well as the establishment of a mechanism to share ...

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), May 30, 2023

Elsevier eBooks, 2020

Abstract Assessments of vulnerability and risk of extreme weather or climate events are essential... more Abstract Assessments of vulnerability and risk of extreme weather or climate events are essential in order to inform and implement appropriate prevention, adaptation, and mitigation strategies. In the present situation, extreme variations of weather and climate have severe impacts, particularly in less-developed countries. Due to the complex nature and uncertainties of future climate change projections, it is not feasible to assess vulnerability at detailed scales for extreme weather events. When aiming to understand the assessment of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk, there are two extreme operating scales, a global (e.g., in terms of climate change) and a local (e.g., in terms of natural hazards). Different approaches and methods exist for conducting hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessments, but often they are not able to address all aspects of physical science, engineering, and social science research. In this study, we discuss human vulnerability and risk assessment approaches, tools, and techniques that address natural hazards related to extreme climate events. Further, we identify research gaps in assessing hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk in response to extreme climate events. This paper reviews different vulnerability and risk frameworks, their strengths and weaknesses, and concludes that risk and vulnerability raised at different stages of the disaster cycle need to be based on multiscale, dynamic, and cross-scale analyses, consider resilience dimensions and provide innovative tools for understanding and assessing and for communicating to the users. Data and inherent low resolution of the information is a constraint for a detailed and comprehensive vulnerability and risk assessments approach. The solution should be informed based on different possible impacts scenarios and by choosing the most robust solutions. Robustness and uncertainty could be included as an additional criterion in decision-making strategies. Ensuring the resilience of these systems will help to reduce direct losses and costs of climate-induced hazards. Based on global case studies and good practices of strong critical infrastructure resilience, this chapter also highlights the importance of critical infrastructure resilience, different climate risk assessment frameworks available for identification and planning, and how to manage the uncertainty associated with climate risk.

Progress in Disaster Science, 2019

Progress in Disaster Science

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Progress in disaster science, Dec 1, 2020

Risk communication is a critical component in disaster risk reduction, especially in designing an... more Risk communication is a critical component in disaster risk reduction, especially in designing and implementing early warning systems. The ability to communicate hazard forecasts and risk information to vulnerable communities and stakeholders successfully is crucial for effective disaster preparedness and response, to reduce impact, and to prevent loss of life. Successful risk communication, however, is challenged constantly. Even the most sophisticated forecasting models and advanced early warning systems can be rendered ineffective if the information is not communicated clearly, on time, and in a way that allows the end-user to consider options and act appropriately. These challenges not only apply to fast onset hazards such as cyclones and tsunamis, but also to slower onset hazards such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. Around the world, governments' responses to the current pandemic provide examples of how complex and difficult successful risk communication is. This paper discusses the importance of risk communication as a critical component of early warning systems and explores the constant challenges that vulnerable communities face, how early warning systems sit within the wider Sendai Framework, and what governments have learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, and discusses how we can communicate more effectively in the future to reduce harm.

CRC Press eBooks, May 2, 2017

Annals of global health, 2020

Background: Researchers across the world are emphasising the importance of hand-washing and limit... more Background: Researchers across the world are emphasising the importance of hand-washing and limited touching of face to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, access to safe water and hygiene is inadequate in many places around the globe; hence T-zone touching restriction is considered more worthwhile compared to other prevention strategies. Aim: A systematic review was carried out to appraise the frequency of T-zone (eyes, nose, mouth, chin) touching in humans to comprehend the challenge of its restriction, and thus support public health professionals to produce evidence synthesis guidance for public. For this systemic review, data were collected by keyword searching, and several online databases were searched. The PRISMA checklist, PECO protocol and STROBE guideline were followed in this review, and pooled data were analysed in R version 4. Result: Total of 10 single arms observational studies were included. The pooled average (SD) facial selftouch per hour was 50.06 (±47) times, and a specific touch of T-zone was 68.7 (±27). T-zone self-touch within the total facial self-touch was found higher R = 0.680, with 95% CI 0.14, 0.91, P = 0.02 and X 2 = 167.63, P < 0.0001. Conclusion: The review found that face-touch is a type of consistent regulatory movements. Control of T-zone touch requires extensive behaviour intervention and community awareness.

Progress in disaster science, Oct 1, 2020

Abstract There is no corner of the planet that has not been impacted by the rapid spread of the n... more Abstract There is no corner of the planet that has not been impacted by the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19. While the COVID-19 pandemic has already had far-reaching socioeconomic consequences commonly associated with natural hazards (such as disruption to society, economic damage, and loss of lives), the response of governments around the world has been unparalleled and unlike anything seen before. Governments are faced with a myriad of multi-dimensional effects of the pandemic, including direct impacts on public health systems and population health and indirect socioeconomic effects including disruption to every single sector of the economy and mass unemployment. There is, additionally, the growing realisation that the timescale associated with this crisis may permanently change the very foundations of societies ‘normal’ day-to-day life. As the world transitions to recovering from COVID-19, those developing that recovery need support in adjusting and improving their policies and measures. The situation seems dire, the stakes are high. Literature about the transition between the response and recovery phase in relation to pandemics is scarce. Further complication is that the pandemic will not allow countries to simply transition to the full-scale recovery, instead, a rebound from recovery to response phase is expected for a certain period until the immunization is in place. Pandemics indeed force us to think beyond typical emergency management structures; the cycles of the disaster risk management in the case of biological and other natural hazards are not exactly the same and no one-size-fits-all approach may be used. Still, some parallels may be drawn with the efforts to combat natural hazards and some lessons may be used from previous and the current pandemic. Based on these experiences and reflections, this paper provides a set of policy directions to be considered during the transition towards, as well as throughout, this transition phase. It is suggested that meeting this global, multi-dimensional, and complex challenge will require considerable international collaboration (even convention) and macro-scale changes to global and national policies. The recovery issues are mainly going to be dominated by politics, economics and social science. Necessary for an effective recovery, the pandemic response needs to be a holistic response, combined with an improved data ecosystem between the public health system and the community. We should also view this outbreak and our response to it as an opportunity to learn lessons and reaffirm our universal commitment to sustainable development and enhancing wellbeing around the world.

Progress in Disaster Science

Progress in Disaster Science, 2021

Abstract Resilience to natural hazards requires integrated risk management – from hazard identifi... more Abstract Resilience to natural hazards requires integrated risk management – from hazard identification and risk register, hazard warnings and risk communication, to preparation for and response when an event occurs. Medium-range hazard warnings play a vital role in strategic and tactical planning for resilience to natural hazards. Research advancements have rapidly improved observation, modelling and analysis of natural hazard forecasting for disaster risk reduction. However, many of these advances have not been tailored to benefit communities at risk as geophysical and hydrometeorological hazards continue to claim thousands of lives and cause irreparable damage to homes, businesses and critical infrastructure. This paper discusses the opportunities to use medium-range ensemble forecasting to support decision making to increase the resilience of communities and the ways to embed holistic early warning systems in risk-informed sustainable development. It provides a set of recommendations for medium range forecasting applications for people-centred early warnings and disaster preparedness.

Progress in Disaster Science

The forces of nature can have deadly and damaging consequences for societies and ecosystems that ... more The forces of nature can have deadly and damaging consequences for societies and ecosystems that stand in their path. Early warning systems offer one of the best defenses against the adverse effects of climate, water, weather and geologic hazards, although far too often this realization is made after disaster strikes.Heads Up! provides a useful review of early warning systems in operation today, while exploring a range of hazards including hurricanes, heat waves, floods, droughts, tsunami and volcanoes. With contributions from an international team of scientists, this practical handbook serves as a valuable contribution to our awareness and understanding of the role early warning systems play in disaster avoidance and reduction

Progress in Disaster Science

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2019

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2019

Disasters exact a heavy toll globally. However, the degree to which we can accurately quantify th... more Disasters exact a heavy toll globally. However, the degree to which we can accurately quantify their impact, in particular mortality, remains challenging. It is critical to ensure that disaster data reliably reflects the scale, type, and distribution of disaster impacts given the role of data in: (1) risk assessments; (2) developing disaster risk management programs; (3) determining the resources for response to emergencies; (4) the types of action undertaken in planning for prevention and preparedness; and (5) identifying research gaps. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030s seven global disaster-impact reduction targets represent the first international attempt to systematically measure the effectiveness of disaster-impact reduction as a means of better informing policy with evidence. Target A of the Sendai Framework aims to “substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower the average per 100,000 global mortality rate in the decade 2020...

The work of Linked Open Data for Global Disaster Risk Research (LODGD) task group of CODATA is an... more The work of Linked Open Data for Global Disaster Risk Research (LODGD) task group of CODATA is an increasingly important activity linking four global milestones – the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), Paris Agreement for Climate Change and the New Urban Agenda (NUA)-Habitat III. The Sendai Framework recognises this need in its guiding principles: '<em>Disaster risk reduction requires a multi-hazard approach and inclusive risk-informed decision-making based on the open exchange and dissemination </em>of disaggregated data, including by sex, age and disability, as well as on easily accessible, up-to-date, comprehensible, science-based, non-sensitive risk information….' (Sendai Framework 2015 paragraph 19g). However, assessment processes are challenging, as they require collaboration and participation across multiple sectors, data integration, interpretation as well as the establishment of a mechanism to share ...

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), May 30, 2023

Elsevier eBooks, 2020

Abstract Assessments of vulnerability and risk of extreme weather or climate events are essential... more Abstract Assessments of vulnerability and risk of extreme weather or climate events are essential in order to inform and implement appropriate prevention, adaptation, and mitigation strategies. In the present situation, extreme variations of weather and climate have severe impacts, particularly in less-developed countries. Due to the complex nature and uncertainties of future climate change projections, it is not feasible to assess vulnerability at detailed scales for extreme weather events. When aiming to understand the assessment of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk, there are two extreme operating scales, a global (e.g., in terms of climate change) and a local (e.g., in terms of natural hazards). Different approaches and methods exist for conducting hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessments, but often they are not able to address all aspects of physical science, engineering, and social science research. In this study, we discuss human vulnerability and risk assessment approaches, tools, and techniques that address natural hazards related to extreme climate events. Further, we identify research gaps in assessing hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk in response to extreme climate events. This paper reviews different vulnerability and risk frameworks, their strengths and weaknesses, and concludes that risk and vulnerability raised at different stages of the disaster cycle need to be based on multiscale, dynamic, and cross-scale analyses, consider resilience dimensions and provide innovative tools for understanding and assessing and for communicating to the users. Data and inherent low resolution of the information is a constraint for a detailed and comprehensive vulnerability and risk assessments approach. The solution should be informed based on different possible impacts scenarios and by choosing the most robust solutions. Robustness and uncertainty could be included as an additional criterion in decision-making strategies. Ensuring the resilience of these systems will help to reduce direct losses and costs of climate-induced hazards. Based on global case studies and good practices of strong critical infrastructure resilience, this chapter also highlights the importance of critical infrastructure resilience, different climate risk assessment frameworks available for identification and planning, and how to manage the uncertainty associated with climate risk.

Progress in Disaster Science, 2019

Progress in Disaster Science

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Progress in disaster science, Dec 1, 2020

Risk communication is a critical component in disaster risk reduction, especially in designing an... more Risk communication is a critical component in disaster risk reduction, especially in designing and implementing early warning systems. The ability to communicate hazard forecasts and risk information to vulnerable communities and stakeholders successfully is crucial for effective disaster preparedness and response, to reduce impact, and to prevent loss of life. Successful risk communication, however, is challenged constantly. Even the most sophisticated forecasting models and advanced early warning systems can be rendered ineffective if the information is not communicated clearly, on time, and in a way that allows the end-user to consider options and act appropriately. These challenges not only apply to fast onset hazards such as cyclones and tsunamis, but also to slower onset hazards such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. Around the world, governments' responses to the current pandemic provide examples of how complex and difficult successful risk communication is. This paper discusses the importance of risk communication as a critical component of early warning systems and explores the constant challenges that vulnerable communities face, how early warning systems sit within the wider Sendai Framework, and what governments have learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, and discusses how we can communicate more effectively in the future to reduce harm.

CRC Press eBooks, May 2, 2017

Annals of global health, 2020

Background: Researchers across the world are emphasising the importance of hand-washing and limit... more Background: Researchers across the world are emphasising the importance of hand-washing and limited touching of face to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, access to safe water and hygiene is inadequate in many places around the globe; hence T-zone touching restriction is considered more worthwhile compared to other prevention strategies. Aim: A systematic review was carried out to appraise the frequency of T-zone (eyes, nose, mouth, chin) touching in humans to comprehend the challenge of its restriction, and thus support public health professionals to produce evidence synthesis guidance for public. For this systemic review, data were collected by keyword searching, and several online databases were searched. The PRISMA checklist, PECO protocol and STROBE guideline were followed in this review, and pooled data were analysed in R version 4. Result: Total of 10 single arms observational studies were included. The pooled average (SD) facial selftouch per hour was 50.06 (±47) times, and a specific touch of T-zone was 68.7 (±27). T-zone self-touch within the total facial self-touch was found higher R = 0.680, with 95% CI 0.14, 0.91, P = 0.02 and X 2 = 167.63, P < 0.0001. Conclusion: The review found that face-touch is a type of consistent regulatory movements. Control of T-zone touch requires extensive behaviour intervention and community awareness.

Progress in disaster science, Oct 1, 2020

Abstract There is no corner of the planet that has not been impacted by the rapid spread of the n... more Abstract There is no corner of the planet that has not been impacted by the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19. While the COVID-19 pandemic has already had far-reaching socioeconomic consequences commonly associated with natural hazards (such as disruption to society, economic damage, and loss of lives), the response of governments around the world has been unparalleled and unlike anything seen before. Governments are faced with a myriad of multi-dimensional effects of the pandemic, including direct impacts on public health systems and population health and indirect socioeconomic effects including disruption to every single sector of the economy and mass unemployment. There is, additionally, the growing realisation that the timescale associated with this crisis may permanently change the very foundations of societies ‘normal’ day-to-day life. As the world transitions to recovering from COVID-19, those developing that recovery need support in adjusting and improving their policies and measures. The situation seems dire, the stakes are high. Literature about the transition between the response and recovery phase in relation to pandemics is scarce. Further complication is that the pandemic will not allow countries to simply transition to the full-scale recovery, instead, a rebound from recovery to response phase is expected for a certain period until the immunization is in place. Pandemics indeed force us to think beyond typical emergency management structures; the cycles of the disaster risk management in the case of biological and other natural hazards are not exactly the same and no one-size-fits-all approach may be used. Still, some parallels may be drawn with the efforts to combat natural hazards and some lessons may be used from previous and the current pandemic. Based on these experiences and reflections, this paper provides a set of policy directions to be considered during the transition towards, as well as throughout, this transition phase. It is suggested that meeting this global, multi-dimensional, and complex challenge will require considerable international collaboration (even convention) and macro-scale changes to global and national policies. The recovery issues are mainly going to be dominated by politics, economics and social science. Necessary for an effective recovery, the pandemic response needs to be a holistic response, combined with an improved data ecosystem between the public health system and the community. We should also view this outbreak and our response to it as an opportunity to learn lessons and reaffirm our universal commitment to sustainable development and enhancing wellbeing around the world.

Progress in Disaster Science

Progress in Disaster Science, 2021

Abstract Resilience to natural hazards requires integrated risk management – from hazard identifi... more Abstract Resilience to natural hazards requires integrated risk management – from hazard identification and risk register, hazard warnings and risk communication, to preparation for and response when an event occurs. Medium-range hazard warnings play a vital role in strategic and tactical planning for resilience to natural hazards. Research advancements have rapidly improved observation, modelling and analysis of natural hazard forecasting for disaster risk reduction. However, many of these advances have not been tailored to benefit communities at risk as geophysical and hydrometeorological hazards continue to claim thousands of lives and cause irreparable damage to homes, businesses and critical infrastructure. This paper discusses the opportunities to use medium-range ensemble forecasting to support decision making to increase the resilience of communities and the ways to embed holistic early warning systems in risk-informed sustainable development. It provides a set of recommendations for medium range forecasting applications for people-centred early warnings and disaster preparedness.

Progress in Disaster Science

Progress in Disaster Science, 2020

There is no corner of the planet that has not been impacted by the rapid spread of the novel coro... more There is no corner of the planet that has not been impacted by the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19. While the COVID-19 pandemic has already had far-reaching socioeconomic consequences commonly associated with natural hazards (such as disruption to society, economic damage, and loss of lives), the response of governments around the world has been unparalleled and unlike anything seen before. Governments are faced with a myriad of multi-dimensional effects of the pandemic, including direct impacts on public health systems and population health and indirect socioeconomic effects including disruption to every single sector of the economy and mass unemployment. There is, additionally, the growing realisation that the timescale associated with this crisis may permanently change the very foundations of societies‘normal’ day-to-day life. As the world transitions to recovering from COVID-19, those developing that recovery need support in adjusting and improving their policies...

Progress in Disaster Science

Cyclone early warning systems are the primary sources of information that enable people to develo... more Cyclone early warning systems are the primary sources of information that enable people to develop a preparedness strategy to mitigate the hazards of cyclones to lives and livelihoods. In Bangladesh, cyclone early warnings have significantly decreased the number of cyclone related fatalities over the last two decades. Nevertheless, several challenges remain for existing early warning services (EWS), urging for both technical and non-technical improvements in the said services. Given limited financial resources, the economic efficiency assessment of the improvement is highly important. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for improved warning services by considering the at-risk households' trade-off between proposed improved EWS and existing EWS in coastal Bangladesh. Applying systematic random sampling, 490 respondent households were selected from Khulna, Satkhira, and Barguna districts, with whom a choice experiment (CE) was performed. The CE was designed by incorporating impact-based scenarios for improved EWS. As analytical tools, Conditional and Mixed-Logistic regression models were used that derived the WTP for improved EWS attributes. Empirical results show that the WTP of an at-risk household for improved EWS was estimated at Bangladeshi Taka BDT 468 (≈ US$ 5.57) per year, implying respondents were ready to pay for the improvement of the warning attributes, including precise information of the cyclones landfall time with possible impacts, more frequent radio forecasts, and voice messages in the local dialects over mobile phones. A revenue stream for improved EWS was developed, implying investments in EWS would be a no-regrets approach. This study concludes with four policy recommendations on mitigating the existing challenges for improving EWS in Bangladesh.

Advances in meteorological, hydrological and engineering sciences are fast generating a range of ... more Advances in meteorological, hydrological and engineering sciences are fast generating a range of new methodologies for forecasting weather and flood events, including ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and new hydrodynamic models. However, many of these advances prediction system have not yet been incorporated into operational forecast systems and consequently, operational forecasts have not been integrated into decision making processes in order to reduce disaster risks. In a real world, it has been noticed that not all people noticed warning or able to understand the meaning of probabilistic forecasts and consider themselves at risk. On the consequence no appropriate actions were taken to reduce damage.