Dimitrios Anastasiou | Athens University of Economics and Business (original) (raw)

Papers by Dimitrios Anastasiou

This study outlines how investment activity evolved in Greece over the last decade and explores i... more This study outlines how investment activity evolved in Greece over the last decade and explores its momentum before and after the COVID-19 pandemic era. We concluded that the L-geometry of the 2009-2016 recession has been determined to a great extent by the fact that fresh investment was lower than capital depreciation for a long period after the initial shock. Although investment spending has shown signs of recovery, its further expansion is not expected before 2021 due to the new economic crisis induced by the pandemic. However, although it is anticipated to push the Greek economy into a deep recession in 2020, the new crisis is vastly different from that of 2009 in both shape and duration, and thus it is not anticipated to have long-lasting effects. Exploring its driving forces in Greece, we find that investment activity is inseparably related to economic growth. To examine the relationship between private investment growth and its main drivers, we employ a time-series estimation with quarterly data ranging from 2001Q2 to 2019Q4. Our empirical findings indicate that GDP growth, economic sentiment and real credit growth have a positive and statistically significant impact on private sector investment growth. Conversely, the real interest rate, corporate income taxation and the debt to GDP ratio adversely affect private investment growth.

In the financial crisis of 2007, many banks with high level of Non-performing loans (NPLs) found ... more In the financial crisis of 2007, many banks with high level of Non-performing loans (NPLs) found their sources of capital dried up, which occurred because of bad management. Huge amounts of NPLs imply both a lack of management methods and lack of capital. Also, high NPL levels have resulted to negative effects to banks’ lending activity, making bank officers-managers more concern for the future of the whole banking system. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to present some NPL management methods that already exist in the literature and second, to make a clear distinction between the ex-post and ex-ante management of NPLs. I tried to collect in one paper what other researchers suggested for the proper management and fight against NPLs for different kinds of banking systems around the world. Hopefully, by examining these methods, banks will be able to cope with the problem of NPLs.

The objective of this study is to examine the causes of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the bankin... more The objective of this study is to examine the causes of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system of the euro area for the period 2003-2013 and distinguish between core and periphery country determinants. The increase in NPLs post crisis has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in peripheral countries which are hardest hit by the financial crisis. By employing both Fully Modified OLS and Panel Cointegrated VAR we estimate that NPLs are affected by the same macroeconomic and bank-specific conditions but the responses are stronger in the periphery. Following the FMOLS estimations NPLs in the euro area have performed an upward (much higher in the periphery) shift after 2008 and are mostly related to worsening macroeconomic conditions especially with respect to unemployment, growth and taxes. Fiscal consolidation and interest rate margins are significant for the periphery while credit to GDP is significant only for the core. Quality of management and loans to deposits play an important role, while size is negatively significant only in the periphery. Most of these findings were confirmed by the panel Cointegrated VAR results. A chi-square test comparing the estimated coefficients for the core and periphery NPLs rejects the hypothesis of equality revealing another aspect of banking fragmentation in the euro area. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies, which should be adjusted appropriately to the different responses between core and periphery banks.

The objective of this paper is to identify the main determinants of non-performing loans in the ... more The objective of this paper is to identify the main determinants of non-performing loans in the euro-area banking system for the period 1990Q1-2015Q2 using GMM estimations. On top of the bank- and country-specific variables proposed by the literature the roles of income tax and output gap are for the first time examined and found to be significant. Our results could be helpful when designing macro-prudential and fiscal policies.

The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect... more The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans) in the banking system of Italy for the period 1995Q1-2014Q1. The increase in NPLs post-2008 has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in Italy which is one of the countries that hit by the financial crisis. By employing fixed and random effects and a dynamic GMM estimation as econometric methodologies I find results that underline common causes for NPLs. Higher NPLs in Italy are mostly due to worse macroeconomic conditions (i.e. bad phase of business cycle) and due to excess credit. Through a Granger causality test, my arguments found even more support. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies.