United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky, 2018 (original) (raw)
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The 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Kentucky took place on November 6, 2018. Voters elected six candidates to serve in the U.S. House, one from each of the state's six congressional districts.
Partisan breakdown
Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party held five of the six congressional seats from Kentucky.
| Members of the U.S. House from Kentucky -- Partisan Breakdown | ||
|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2018 | After the 2018 Election |
| Democratic Party | 1 | |
| Republican Party | 5 | |
| Total | 6 | 6 |
Incumbents
Heading into the 2018 election, the incumbents for the six congressional districts were:
| Name | Party | District |
|---|---|---|
| James Comer |  Republican |
1 |
| Brett Guthrie | Republican |
2 |
| John Yarmuth |  Democratic |
3 |
| Thomas Massie | Republican |
4 |
| Hal Rogers | Republican |
5 |
| Andy Barr | Republican |
6 |
2016 Pivot Counties
See also: Pivot Counties and Congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties
Kentucky featured one congressional district that intersects with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.
The 206 Pivot Counties were located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. The partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties was more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that had at least one Pivot County, 63 percent were held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[1]
Candidates
See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018
| Candidate ballot access |
|---|
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| Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. |
District 1
General election
General election candidates
- James Comer Jr. (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Paul Walker (Democratic Party)
See also: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)
See also: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Republican primary)
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
Republican primary candidates
- James Comer Jr. (Incumbent) ✔
District 2
General election
General election candidates
- Brett Guthrie (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Hank Linderman (Democratic Party)
- Thomas Loecken (Independent)
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
See also: Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)
See also: Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Republican primary)
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
- Brett Guthrie (Incumbent) ✔
District 3
General election
General election candidates
- John A. Yarmuth (Incumbent) (Democratic Party) ✔
- Vickie Yates Glisson (Republican Party)
- Gregory Boles (Libertarian Party)
See also: Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)
See also: Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Republican primary)
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
- John A. Yarmuth (Incumbent) ✔
Republican primary candidates
Did not make the ballot:
Libertarians
District 4
General election
General election candidates
- Thomas Massie (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Seth Hall (Democratic Party)
- Mike Moffett (Independent)
Write-in candidates
See also: Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)
See also: Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Republican primary)
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
Did not make the ballot:
Republican primary candidates
- Thomas Massie (Incumbent) ✔
District 5
General election
General election candidates
- Hal Rogers (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Kenneth Stepp (Democratic Party)
Write-in candidates
See also: Kentucky's 5th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)
See also: Kentucky's 5th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Republican primary)
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
Republican primary candidates
- Hal Rogers (Incumbent) ✔
- Gerardo Serrano
District 6
General election
General election candidates
- Andy Barr (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Amy McGrath (Democratic Party)
- Frank Harris (Libertarian Party)
- James Germalic (Independent)
- Rikka Wallin (Independent)
Did not make the ballot:
- Mikel Bradley (Independent)
See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)
See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Republican primary)
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
Republican primary candidates
- Andy Barr (Incumbent) ✔
- Chuck Eddy
Libertarians
Independents
Withdrew
Wave election analysis
See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. House elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| U.S. House wave elections | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | House seats change | House majority[5] |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -97 | D |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -76 | R |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -70 | D |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -63 | R (flipped) |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -59 | R |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) |
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -53 | D (flipped) |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -50 | D |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[6] | -48 | D |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[7] | -48 | D |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018
- U.S. House primaries, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ Libertarian Party of Kentucky, "Candidates," accessed April 5, 2018
- ↑ Libertarian Party of Kentucky, "Candidates," accessed April 5, 2018
- ↑ Facebook, "Mikel Bradley," December 29, 2017
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
Senators
Representatives
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (1)