Christian A Yates | University of Bath (original) (raw)

Papers by Christian A Yates

arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 15, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharm... more The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions being implemented around the world to curb transmission. However, the economic and social costs of some of these measures, especially lockdowns, has been high. An alternative and widely discussed public health strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic would have been to 'shield' those most vulnerable to COVID-19 (minimising their contacts with others), while allowing infection to spread among lower risk individuals with the aim of reaching herd immunity. Here we retrospectively explore the effectiveness of this strategy using a stochastic SEIR framework, showing that even under the unrealistic assumption of perfect shielding, hospitals would have been rapidly overwhelmed with many avoidable deaths among lower risk individuals. Crucially, even a small (20%) reduction in the effectiveness of shielding would have likely led to a large increase (>150%) in the number of deaths compared to perfect shielding. Our findings demonstrate that shielding the vulnerable while allowing infections to spread among the wider population

Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They mod... more Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They model the random motion of particles (diffusion) and interactions between them (reactions). Such systems can be modelled at multiple scales with varying degrees of accuracy and computational efficiency. When representing genuinely multiscale phenomena, fine-scale models can be prohibitively expensive, whereas coarser models, although cheaper, often lack sufficient detail to accurately represent the phenomenon at hand. Spatial hybrid methods couple two or more of these representations in order to improve efficiency without compromising accuracy.In this paper, we present a novel spatial hybrid method, which we call the auxiliary region method (ARM), which couples PDE- and Brownian-based representations of reaction–diffusion systems. Numerical PDE solutions on one side of an interface are coupled to Brownian-based dynamics on the other side using compartment-based 'auxiliary regions'. We demonstrate that the hybrid method is able to simulate reaction–diffusion dynamics for a number of different test problems with high accuracy. Furthermore, we undertake error analysis on the ARM which demonstrates that it is robust to changes in the free parameters in the model, where previous coupling algorithms are not. In particular, we envisage that the method will be applicable for a wide range of spatial multi-scales problems including, filopodial dynamics, intracellular signalling, embryogenesis and travelling wave phenomena.

Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or populatio... more Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or population scales. Multiscale processes provide challenges when they are to be simulated using numerical techniques. While coarser methods such as partial differential equations are typically fast to simulate, they lack the individual-level detail that may be required in regions of low concentration or small spatial scale. However, to simulate at such an individual level throughout a domain and in regions where concentrations are high can be computationally expensive. Spatially coupled hybrid methods provide a bridge, allowing for multiple representations of the same species in one spatial domain by partitioning space into distinct modelling subdomains. Over the past 20 years, such hybrid methods have risen to prominence, leading to what is now a very active research area across multiple disciplines including chemistry, physics and mathematics. There are three main motivations for undertaking this review. Firstly, we have collated a large number of spatially extended hybrid methods and presented them in a single coherent document, while comparing and contrasting them, so that anyone who requires a multiscale hybrid method will be able to find the most appropriate one for their need. Secondly, we have provided canonical examples with algorithms and accompanying code, serving to demonstrate how these types of methods work in practice. Finally, we have presented papers that employ these methods on real biological and physical problems, demonstrating their utility. We also consider some open research questions in the area of hybrid method development and the future directions for the field.

arXiv (Cornell University), Aug 15, 2017

Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They mod... more Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They model the random motion of particles (diffusion) and interactions between them (reactions). Such systems can be modelled at multiple scales with varying degrees of accuracy and computational efficiency. When representing genuinely multiscale phenomena, fine-scale models can be prohibitively expensive, whereas coarser models, although cheaper, often lack sufficient detail to accurately represent the phenomenon at hand. Spatial hybrid methods couple two or more of these representations in order to improve efficiency without compromising accuracy. In this paper, we present a novel spatial hybrid method, which we call the auxiliary region method (ARM), which couples PDE and Brownian-based representations of reaction-diffusion systems. Numerical PDE solutions on one side of an interface are coupled to Brownian-based dynamics on the other side using compartment-based "auxiliary regions". We demonstrate that the hybrid method is able to simulate reaction-diffusion dynamics for a number of different test problems with high accuracy. Further, we undertake error analysis on the ARM which demonstrates that it is robust to changes in the free parameters in the model, where previous coupling algorithms are not. In particular, we envisage that the method will be applicable for a wide range of spatial multi-scales problems including, filopodial dynamics, intracellular signalling, embryogenesis and travelling wave phenomena.

Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford), Jun 29, 2016

Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Apr 1, 2021

Reaction-diffusion mechanism are a robust paradigm that can be used to represent many biological ... more Reaction-diffusion mechanism are a robust paradigm that can be used to represent many biological and physical phenomena over multiple spatial scales. Applications include intracellular dynamics, the migration of cells and the patterns formed by vegetation in semi-arid landscapes. Moreover, domain growth is an important process for embryonic growth and wound healing. There are many numerical modelling frameworks capable of simulating such systems on growing domains, however each of these may be well suited to different spatial scales and particle numbers. Recently, spatially extended hybrid methods on static domains have been produced in order to bridge the gap between these different modelling paradigms in order to represent multiscale phenomena. However, such methods have not been developed with domain growth in mind. In this paper, we develop three hybrid methods on growing domains, extending three of the prominent static domain hybrid methods. We also provide detailed algorithms to allow others to employ them. We demonstrate that the methods are able to accurately model three representative reaction-diffusion systems accurately and without bias.

Swarming, schooling, flocking and herding are all names given to the wide variety of collective b... more Swarming, schooling, flocking and herding are all names given to the wide variety of collective behaviours exhibited by groups of animals, bacteria and even individual cells. More generally, the term swarming describes the behaviour of an aggregate of agents (not necessarily biological) of similar size and shape which exhibit some emergent property such as directed migration or group cohesion. In this paper we review various individual-based models of collective behaviour and discuss their merits and drawbacks. We further analyse some one-dimensional models in the context of locust swarming. In specific models, in both one and two dimensions, we demonstrate how varying parameters relating to how much attention individuals pay to their neighbours can dramatically change the behaviour of the group. We also introduce leader individuals to these models. Leader individuals have the ability to guide the swarm to a greater or lesser degree as we vary the parameters of the model. Finally, we consider evolutionary scenarios for models with leaders in which individuals are allowed to evolve the degree of influence neighbouring individuals have on their subsequent motion.

Physical Review E, May 22, 2015

Physical review, Dec 19, 2019

arXiv (Cornell University), Jan 20, 2020

Stochastic simulation algorithms (SSAs) are widely used to numerically investigate the properties... more Stochastic simulation algorithms (SSAs) are widely used to numerically investigate the properties of stochastic, discrete-state models. The Gillespie Direct Method is the pre-eminent SSA, and is widely used to generate sample paths of so-called agent-based or individual-based models. However, the simplicity of the Gillespie Direct Method often renders it impractical where large-scale models are to be analysed in detail. In this work, we carefully modify the Gillespie Direct Method so that it uses a customised binary decision tree to trace out sample paths of the model of interest. We show that a decision tree can be constructed to exploit the specific features of the chosen model. Specifically, the events that underpin the model are placed in carefully-chosen leaves of the decision tree in order to minimise the work required to keep the tree up-to-date. The computational efficiencies that we realise can provide the apparatus necessary for the investigation of large-scale, discrete-state models that would otherwise be intractable. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the method.

arXiv (Cornell University), Aug 15, 2017

Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They mod... more Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They model the random motion of particles (diffusion) and interactions between them (reactions). Such systems can be modelled at multiple scales with varying degrees of accuracy and computational efficiency. When representing genuinely multiscale phenomena, fine-scale models can be prohibitively expensive, whereas coarser models, although cheaper, often lack sufficient detail to accurately represent the phenomenon at hand. Spatial hybrid methods couple two or more of these representations in order to improve efficiency without compromising accuracy. In this paper, we present a novel spatial hybrid method, which we call the auxiliary region method (ARM), which couples PDE and Brownian-based representations of reaction-diffusion systems. Numerical PDE solutions on one side of an interface are coupled to Brownian-based dynamics on the other side using compartment-based "auxiliary regions". We demonstrate that the hybrid method is able to simulate reaction-diffusion dynamics for a number of different test problems with high accuracy. Further, we undertake error analysis on the ARM which demonstrates that it is robust to changes in the free parameters in the model, where previous coupling algorithms are not. In particular, we envisage that the method will be applicable for a wide range of spatial multi-scales problems including, filopodial dynamics, intracellular signalling, embryogenesis and travelling wave phenomena.

Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Feb 1, 2018

Physical Review E

In this paper, we investigate a generalised model of N particles undergoing second-order non-loca... more In this paper, we investigate a generalised model of N particles undergoing second-order non-local interactions on a lattice. Our results have applications across many research areas, including the modelling of migration, information dynamics and Muller's ratchet-the irreversible accumulation of deleterious mutations in an evolving population. Strikingly, numerical simulations of the model are observed to deviate significantly from its mean-field approximation even for large population sizes. We show that the disagreement between deterministic and stochastic solutions stems from finite-size effects that change the propagation speed and cause the position of the wave to fluctuate. These effects are shown to decay anomalously as (log N) −2 and (log N) −3 , respectively-much slower than the usual N −1/2 factor. Our results suggest that the accumulation of deleterious mutations in a Muller's ratchet and the loss of awareness in a population may occur much faster than predicted by the corresponding deterministic models. The general applicability of our model suggests that this unexpected scaling could be important in a wide range of real-world applications.

PLOS Global Public Health

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharm... more The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions being implemented around the world to curb transmission. However, the economic and social costs of some of these measures, especially lockdowns, has been high. An alternative and widely discussed public health strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic would have been to ‘shield’ those most vulnerable to COVID-19 (minimising their contacts with others), while allowing infection to spread among lower risk individuals with the aim of reaching herd immunity. Here we retrospectively explore the effectiveness of this strategy using a stochastic SEIR framework, showing that even under the unrealistic assumption of perfect shielding, hospitals would have been rapidly overwhelmed with many avoidable deaths among lower risk individuals. Crucially, even a small (20%) reduction in the effectiveness of shielding would have likely led to a large increase (>150%) in the number of de...

The simulation of stochastic reaction–diffusion systems using fine-grained representations can be... more The simulation of stochastic reaction–diffusion systems using fine-grained representations can become computationally prohibitive when particle numbers become large. If particle numbers are sufficiently high then it may be possible to ignore stochastic fluctuations and use a more efficient coarse-grained simulation approach. Nevertheless, for multiscale systems which exhibit significant spatial variation in concentration, a coarse-grained approach may not be appropriate throughout the simulation domain. Such scenarios suggest a hybrid paradigm in which a computationally cheap, coarse-grained model is coupled to a more expensive, but more detailed fine-grained model enabling the accurate simulation of the fine-scale dynamics at a reasonable computational cost. In this paper, in order to couple two representations of reaction–diffusion at distinct spatial scales, we allow them to overlap in a 'blending region'. Both modelling paradigms provide a valid representation of the par...

Reaction–diffusion mechanism are a robust paradigm that can be used to represent many biological ... more Reaction–diffusion mechanism are a robust paradigm that can be used to represent many biological and physical phenomena over multiple spatial scales. Applications include intracellular dynamics, the migration of cells and the patterns formed by vegetation in semi-arid landscapes. Moreover, domain growth is an important process for embryonic growth and wound healing. There are many numerical modelling frameworks capable of simulating such systems on growing domains; however, each of these may be well suited to different spatial scales and particle numbers. Recently, spatially extended hybrid methods on static domains have been produced in order to bridge the gap between these different modelling paradigms in order to represent multiscale phenomena. However, such methods have not been developed with domain growth in mind. In this paper, we develop three hybrid methods on growing domains, extending three of the prominent static domain hybrid methods. We also provide detailed algorithms...

Zip file containing all of the code required to run the ARM.

Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or populatio... more Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or population scales. Multiscale processes provide challenges when they are to be simulated using numerical techniques. While coarser methods such as partial differential equations are typically fast to simulate, they lack the individual-level detail that may be required in regions of low concentration or small spatial scale. However, to simulate at such an individual level throughout a domain and in regions where concentrations are high can be computationally expensive. Spatially coupled hybrid methods provide a bridge, allowing for multiple representations of the same species in one spatial domain by partitioning space into distinct modelling subdomains. Over the past 20 years, such hybrid methods have risen to prominence, leading to what is now a very active research area across multiple disciplines including chemistry, physics and mathematics. There are three main motivations for undertaking thi...

Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or populatio... more Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or population scales. Multiscale processes provide challenges when they are to be simulated using numerical techniques. While coarser methods such as partial differential equations are typically fast to simulate, they lack the individual-level detail that may be required in regions of low concentration or small spatial scale. However, to simulate at such an individual level throughout a domain and in regions where concentrations are high can be computationally expensive. Spatially coupled hybrid methods provide a bridge, allowing for multiple representations of the same species in one spatial domain by partitioning space into distinct modelling subdomains. Over the past 20 years, such hybrid methods have risen to prominence, leading to what is now a very active research area across multiple disciplines including chemistry, physics and mathematics. There are three main motivations for undertaking thi...

arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 15, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharm... more The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions being implemented around the world to curb transmission. However, the economic and social costs of some of these measures, especially lockdowns, has been high. An alternative and widely discussed public health strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic would have been to 'shield' those most vulnerable to COVID-19 (minimising their contacts with others), while allowing infection to spread among lower risk individuals with the aim of reaching herd immunity. Here we retrospectively explore the effectiveness of this strategy using a stochastic SEIR framework, showing that even under the unrealistic assumption of perfect shielding, hospitals would have been rapidly overwhelmed with many avoidable deaths among lower risk individuals. Crucially, even a small (20%) reduction in the effectiveness of shielding would have likely led to a large increase (>150%) in the number of deaths compared to perfect shielding. Our findings demonstrate that shielding the vulnerable while allowing infections to spread among the wider population

Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They mod... more Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They model the random motion of particles (diffusion) and interactions between them (reactions). Such systems can be modelled at multiple scales with varying degrees of accuracy and computational efficiency. When representing genuinely multiscale phenomena, fine-scale models can be prohibitively expensive, whereas coarser models, although cheaper, often lack sufficient detail to accurately represent the phenomenon at hand. Spatial hybrid methods couple two or more of these representations in order to improve efficiency without compromising accuracy.In this paper, we present a novel spatial hybrid method, which we call the auxiliary region method (ARM), which couples PDE- and Brownian-based representations of reaction–diffusion systems. Numerical PDE solutions on one side of an interface are coupled to Brownian-based dynamics on the other side using compartment-based 'auxiliary regions'. We demonstrate that the hybrid method is able to simulate reaction–diffusion dynamics for a number of different test problems with high accuracy. Furthermore, we undertake error analysis on the ARM which demonstrates that it is robust to changes in the free parameters in the model, where previous coupling algorithms are not. In particular, we envisage that the method will be applicable for a wide range of spatial multi-scales problems including, filopodial dynamics, intracellular signalling, embryogenesis and travelling wave phenomena.

Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or populatio... more Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or population scales. Multiscale processes provide challenges when they are to be simulated using numerical techniques. While coarser methods such as partial differential equations are typically fast to simulate, they lack the individual-level detail that may be required in regions of low concentration or small spatial scale. However, to simulate at such an individual level throughout a domain and in regions where concentrations are high can be computationally expensive. Spatially coupled hybrid methods provide a bridge, allowing for multiple representations of the same species in one spatial domain by partitioning space into distinct modelling subdomains. Over the past 20 years, such hybrid methods have risen to prominence, leading to what is now a very active research area across multiple disciplines including chemistry, physics and mathematics. There are three main motivations for undertaking this review. Firstly, we have collated a large number of spatially extended hybrid methods and presented them in a single coherent document, while comparing and contrasting them, so that anyone who requires a multiscale hybrid method will be able to find the most appropriate one for their need. Secondly, we have provided canonical examples with algorithms and accompanying code, serving to demonstrate how these types of methods work in practice. Finally, we have presented papers that employ these methods on real biological and physical problems, demonstrating their utility. We also consider some open research questions in the area of hybrid method development and the future directions for the field.

arXiv (Cornell University), Aug 15, 2017

Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They mod... more Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They model the random motion of particles (diffusion) and interactions between them (reactions). Such systems can be modelled at multiple scales with varying degrees of accuracy and computational efficiency. When representing genuinely multiscale phenomena, fine-scale models can be prohibitively expensive, whereas coarser models, although cheaper, often lack sufficient detail to accurately represent the phenomenon at hand. Spatial hybrid methods couple two or more of these representations in order to improve efficiency without compromising accuracy. In this paper, we present a novel spatial hybrid method, which we call the auxiliary region method (ARM), which couples PDE and Brownian-based representations of reaction-diffusion systems. Numerical PDE solutions on one side of an interface are coupled to Brownian-based dynamics on the other side using compartment-based "auxiliary regions". We demonstrate that the hybrid method is able to simulate reaction-diffusion dynamics for a number of different test problems with high accuracy. Further, we undertake error analysis on the ARM which demonstrates that it is robust to changes in the free parameters in the model, where previous coupling algorithms are not. In particular, we envisage that the method will be applicable for a wide range of spatial multi-scales problems including, filopodial dynamics, intracellular signalling, embryogenesis and travelling wave phenomena.

Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford), Jun 29, 2016

Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Apr 1, 2021

Reaction-diffusion mechanism are a robust paradigm that can be used to represent many biological ... more Reaction-diffusion mechanism are a robust paradigm that can be used to represent many biological and physical phenomena over multiple spatial scales. Applications include intracellular dynamics, the migration of cells and the patterns formed by vegetation in semi-arid landscapes. Moreover, domain growth is an important process for embryonic growth and wound healing. There are many numerical modelling frameworks capable of simulating such systems on growing domains, however each of these may be well suited to different spatial scales and particle numbers. Recently, spatially extended hybrid methods on static domains have been produced in order to bridge the gap between these different modelling paradigms in order to represent multiscale phenomena. However, such methods have not been developed with domain growth in mind. In this paper, we develop three hybrid methods on growing domains, extending three of the prominent static domain hybrid methods. We also provide detailed algorithms to allow others to employ them. We demonstrate that the methods are able to accurately model three representative reaction-diffusion systems accurately and without bias.

Swarming, schooling, flocking and herding are all names given to the wide variety of collective b... more Swarming, schooling, flocking and herding are all names given to the wide variety of collective behaviours exhibited by groups of animals, bacteria and even individual cells. More generally, the term swarming describes the behaviour of an aggregate of agents (not necessarily biological) of similar size and shape which exhibit some emergent property such as directed migration or group cohesion. In this paper we review various individual-based models of collective behaviour and discuss their merits and drawbacks. We further analyse some one-dimensional models in the context of locust swarming. In specific models, in both one and two dimensions, we demonstrate how varying parameters relating to how much attention individuals pay to their neighbours can dramatically change the behaviour of the group. We also introduce leader individuals to these models. Leader individuals have the ability to guide the swarm to a greater or lesser degree as we vary the parameters of the model. Finally, we consider evolutionary scenarios for models with leaders in which individuals are allowed to evolve the degree of influence neighbouring individuals have on their subsequent motion.

Physical Review E, May 22, 2015

Physical review, Dec 19, 2019

arXiv (Cornell University), Jan 20, 2020

Stochastic simulation algorithms (SSAs) are widely used to numerically investigate the properties... more Stochastic simulation algorithms (SSAs) are widely used to numerically investigate the properties of stochastic, discrete-state models. The Gillespie Direct Method is the pre-eminent SSA, and is widely used to generate sample paths of so-called agent-based or individual-based models. However, the simplicity of the Gillespie Direct Method often renders it impractical where large-scale models are to be analysed in detail. In this work, we carefully modify the Gillespie Direct Method so that it uses a customised binary decision tree to trace out sample paths of the model of interest. We show that a decision tree can be constructed to exploit the specific features of the chosen model. Specifically, the events that underpin the model are placed in carefully-chosen leaves of the decision tree in order to minimise the work required to keep the tree up-to-date. The computational efficiencies that we realise can provide the apparatus necessary for the investigation of large-scale, discrete-state models that would otherwise be intractable. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the method.

arXiv (Cornell University), Aug 15, 2017

Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They mod... more Reaction-diffusion systems are used to represent many biological and physical phenomena. They model the random motion of particles (diffusion) and interactions between them (reactions). Such systems can be modelled at multiple scales with varying degrees of accuracy and computational efficiency. When representing genuinely multiscale phenomena, fine-scale models can be prohibitively expensive, whereas coarser models, although cheaper, often lack sufficient detail to accurately represent the phenomenon at hand. Spatial hybrid methods couple two or more of these representations in order to improve efficiency without compromising accuracy. In this paper, we present a novel spatial hybrid method, which we call the auxiliary region method (ARM), which couples PDE and Brownian-based representations of reaction-diffusion systems. Numerical PDE solutions on one side of an interface are coupled to Brownian-based dynamics on the other side using compartment-based "auxiliary regions". We demonstrate that the hybrid method is able to simulate reaction-diffusion dynamics for a number of different test problems with high accuracy. Further, we undertake error analysis on the ARM which demonstrates that it is robust to changes in the free parameters in the model, where previous coupling algorithms are not. In particular, we envisage that the method will be applicable for a wide range of spatial multi-scales problems including, filopodial dynamics, intracellular signalling, embryogenesis and travelling wave phenomena.

Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Feb 1, 2018

Physical Review E

In this paper, we investigate a generalised model of N particles undergoing second-order non-loca... more In this paper, we investigate a generalised model of N particles undergoing second-order non-local interactions on a lattice. Our results have applications across many research areas, including the modelling of migration, information dynamics and Muller's ratchet-the irreversible accumulation of deleterious mutations in an evolving population. Strikingly, numerical simulations of the model are observed to deviate significantly from its mean-field approximation even for large population sizes. We show that the disagreement between deterministic and stochastic solutions stems from finite-size effects that change the propagation speed and cause the position of the wave to fluctuate. These effects are shown to decay anomalously as (log N) −2 and (log N) −3 , respectively-much slower than the usual N −1/2 factor. Our results suggest that the accumulation of deleterious mutations in a Muller's ratchet and the loss of awareness in a population may occur much faster than predicted by the corresponding deterministic models. The general applicability of our model suggests that this unexpected scaling could be important in a wide range of real-world applications.

PLOS Global Public Health

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharm... more The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions being implemented around the world to curb transmission. However, the economic and social costs of some of these measures, especially lockdowns, has been high. An alternative and widely discussed public health strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic would have been to ‘shield’ those most vulnerable to COVID-19 (minimising their contacts with others), while allowing infection to spread among lower risk individuals with the aim of reaching herd immunity. Here we retrospectively explore the effectiveness of this strategy using a stochastic SEIR framework, showing that even under the unrealistic assumption of perfect shielding, hospitals would have been rapidly overwhelmed with many avoidable deaths among lower risk individuals. Crucially, even a small (20%) reduction in the effectiveness of shielding would have likely led to a large increase (>150%) in the number of de...

The simulation of stochastic reaction–diffusion systems using fine-grained representations can be... more The simulation of stochastic reaction–diffusion systems using fine-grained representations can become computationally prohibitive when particle numbers become large. If particle numbers are sufficiently high then it may be possible to ignore stochastic fluctuations and use a more efficient coarse-grained simulation approach. Nevertheless, for multiscale systems which exhibit significant spatial variation in concentration, a coarse-grained approach may not be appropriate throughout the simulation domain. Such scenarios suggest a hybrid paradigm in which a computationally cheap, coarse-grained model is coupled to a more expensive, but more detailed fine-grained model enabling the accurate simulation of the fine-scale dynamics at a reasonable computational cost. In this paper, in order to couple two representations of reaction–diffusion at distinct spatial scales, we allow them to overlap in a 'blending region'. Both modelling paradigms provide a valid representation of the par...

Reaction–diffusion mechanism are a robust paradigm that can be used to represent many biological ... more Reaction–diffusion mechanism are a robust paradigm that can be used to represent many biological and physical phenomena over multiple spatial scales. Applications include intracellular dynamics, the migration of cells and the patterns formed by vegetation in semi-arid landscapes. Moreover, domain growth is an important process for embryonic growth and wound healing. There are many numerical modelling frameworks capable of simulating such systems on growing domains; however, each of these may be well suited to different spatial scales and particle numbers. Recently, spatially extended hybrid methods on static domains have been produced in order to bridge the gap between these different modelling paradigms in order to represent multiscale phenomena. However, such methods have not been developed with domain growth in mind. In this paper, we develop three hybrid methods on growing domains, extending three of the prominent static domain hybrid methods. We also provide detailed algorithms...

Zip file containing all of the code required to run the ARM.

Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or populatio... more Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or population scales. Multiscale processes provide challenges when they are to be simulated using numerical techniques. While coarser methods such as partial differential equations are typically fast to simulate, they lack the individual-level detail that may be required in regions of low concentration or small spatial scale. However, to simulate at such an individual level throughout a domain and in regions where concentrations are high can be computationally expensive. Spatially coupled hybrid methods provide a bridge, allowing for multiple representations of the same species in one spatial domain by partitioning space into distinct modelling subdomains. Over the past 20 years, such hybrid methods have risen to prominence, leading to what is now a very active research area across multiple disciplines including chemistry, physics and mathematics. There are three main motivations for undertaking thi...

Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or populatio... more Many biological and physical systems exhibit behaviour at multiple spatial, temporal or population scales. Multiscale processes provide challenges when they are to be simulated using numerical techniques. While coarser methods such as partial differential equations are typically fast to simulate, they lack the individual-level detail that may be required in regions of low concentration or small spatial scale. However, to simulate at such an individual level throughout a domain and in regions where concentrations are high can be computationally expensive. Spatially coupled hybrid methods provide a bridge, allowing for multiple representations of the same species in one spatial domain by partitioning space into distinct modelling subdomains. Over the past 20 years, such hybrid methods have risen to prominence, leading to what is now a very active research area across multiple disciplines including chemistry, physics and mathematics. There are three main motivations for undertaking thi...