Annie M Kammerer | University of California, Berkeley (original) (raw)
Books by Annie M Kammerer
INL/EXT-15 36945, Mar 30, 2016
Over the last decade, particularly since implementation of the certified design regulatory approa... more Over the last decade, particularly since implementation of the certified design regulatory approaches outlined in 10 CFR 52, “Licenses, Certifications, and Approvals for Nuclear Power Plants,” interest has been increasing in the use of seismic isolation (SI) technology to support seismic safety in nuclear facilities. In 2009, the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated research activities to develop new guidance targeted at isolated facilities because SI is being considered for nuclear power plants in the U.S. One product of that research, which was developed around a risk-informed regulatory approach, was a draft NRC nuclear regulatory commission (NUREG) report that investigated and discussed considerations for use of SI in otherwise traditionally-founded large light water reactors (LWRs). A coordinated effort led to new provisions for SI of LWRs in the forthcoming standard ASCE/SEI 4-16, “Seismic Analysis of Safety-Related Nuclear Structures.” The risk-informed design philosophy that underpinned development of the technical basis for both of these documents led to a set of proposed performance objectives and acceptance criteria that was developed to serve as the foundation for future NRC guidance on the use of SI and related technology.
Although the guidance provided in the draft SI NUREG report and ASCE/SEI 4-16 provides a sound basis for further development of nuclear power plant designs incorporating SI, these initial documents were focused on surface-founded or near-surface-founded LWRs and were, necessarily, limited in scope. For example, there is limited information in either the draft NUREG report or ASCE/SEI 4-16 related to nonlinear analysis of soil-structure systems for deeply-embedded reactors, the isolation of components, and the use of vertical isolation systems. Also missing from the draft SI NUREG report are special considerations for licensing of isolated facilities using the certified design approach in 10 CFR 52 and a detailed discussion of seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) for isolated facilities.
To identify and address limitations in the initial guidance, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has initiated several projects focused on further developing the technical and licensing underpinnings for facilities using SI technology. These efforts include a 2014 workshop focused on SI, development of new structural analysis tools and methodologies, and development of this report to identify and describe regulatory gaps and challenges related to licensing of advanced reactors using SI. Nearly all of the gaps and challenges identified in the report fall outside the scope of current efforts (including those at INL). This report provides information for developing a roadmap for future activities related to SI of advanced reactors. Although design optimization and commercial aspects related to the use of SI have been identified in Coleman and Sabharwall (2014) and elsewhere as possible issues or areas of opportunity, only topics that may impact efficient and successful licensing are addressed in this report.
Because efforts to date related to regulatory guidance development (e.g., the draft SI NUREG report) have principally considered designs similar to those currently being licensed, the existing literature (some of which is discussed in this report) is reflective of traditional LWR designs. All of the regulatory gaps and challenges that apply to LWRs also apply to advanced reactors; and often the LWR case provides a simplified example as compared to the range of cases found in advanced reactors. Advanced reactor designs often lead to additional gaps and challenges not faced in LWR design. Although this report discusses advanced reactors broadly, the exact set of challenges and potential solutions for any particular reactor design is technology-specific.
SI offers potential significant economic benefits for advanced reactors because the isolation system can be used to reduce the site-dependent seismic demands below pre-qualified levels in the certified design. Site-independent SSCs such as reactor vessels and steam generators would be analyzed, designed and qualified just once. Their protective isolation systems would be site-specific.
vi
Advanced reactors will often be designed and constructed very differently from LWRs, regardless of whether or not they employ SI and damping devices. The key technical advances in civil and structural engineering needed to deploy advanced reactors are: (1) development of performance-based seismic design and assessment procedures for non-LWR reactors; (2) development and deployment of analysis methodologies suitable for computing the response of deeply-embedded power reactors, including nonlinear time domain, soil-structure-interaction analysis; and (3) development, prototyping, and deployment of two-dimensional and three-dimensional isolation systems suitable for components ranging in size and complexity from diesel generators to reactor vessels. Advances in Items 1 and 2 are needed regardless of whether seismic protective measures (i.e., such as those noted in Item 3) are deployed. Not covered in this report are other important technical advances in civil and structural engineering needed for economical deployment of advanced reactors such as development and deployment of modular construction strategies used to minimize “one-off” field work, schedule delays, and construction cost.
The identified gaps and challenges are addressed throughout this report and summarized in Section 7. High-impact/high-value topics that should be addressed in the short term, and that must be satisfactorily completed before substantial progress on other tasks can be made, include the following topics listed below. The number in parentheses refers to the subsection number in this report where the topic is discussed. These topics are also highlighted in Table 4.
• Verification and validation of models and tools for nonlinear soil structure interaction of embedded facilities (2.1.3)
• Guidance for ground motion selection and modification for design and SPRA (2.1.5)
• Procedures for SPRA of nonlinear soil-isolator-structure systems (2.3.1, 2.3.2)
• Component isolation systems (2.3.3)
• Certified design process for deeply-embedded advanced reactors (3.1, 3.2)
Papers by Annie M Kammerer
Over the past decade, major advances have occurred in both understanding and practice with regard... more Over the past decade, major advances have occurred in both understanding and practice with regard to assessment and mitigation of hazard associated with seismically induced soil liquefaction. Soil liquefaction engineering has evolved into a sub-field in its own right, and engineering assessment and mitigation of seismic soil liquefaction hazard is increasingly well addressed in both research and practice. This rapid evolution in the treatment of liquefaction has been pushed largely by a confluence of lessons and data provided by a series of major earthquakes over the past dozen years, as well as by the research and professional/political will engendered by these major seismic events. The overall field of soil liquefaction engineering is now beginning to coalesce into an internally consistent and comprehensive framework, and one in which the various elements are increasingly mutually supportive of each other. Although the rate of progress has been laudable, further advances are occur...
This paper presents the development of a comprehensive modeling-quality cyclic simple shear testi... more This paper presents the development of a comprehensive modeling-quality cyclic simple shear testing database composed of tests performed on fully-saturated samples of Monterey 0/30 sand. This newly developed database is composed of two series. The first consists of a comprehensive series of unidirectional tests incorporating a variety of relative densities and confining pressures. The second series consists of tests performed under a variety of multi-directional stress paths, including a number of stress paths never before examined in the laboratory. The bi-directional series is focused on soils that exhibit dilatant behavior (i.e. medium to high-density soils). The database is designed such that the unidirectional series serves as a comprehensive baseline against which to compare the results of the multidirectional series. Together, they represent an unmatched resource for both the development and calibration of 3-dimensional constitutive models and understanding the behavior of li...
A comprehensive testing database composed of modeling-quality multi-directional cyclic simple she... more A comprehensive testing database composed of modeling-quality multi-directional cyclic simple shear testing on medium to high relative density, fully-saturated samples of Monterey 0/30 sand has recently been developed. This testing program incorporated a variety of multi-directional stress paths, including a large number of stress paths never before examined. Results from these tests have proven useful for enhancing current understanding of liquefaction behavior by allowing for a more complete theory to emerge. This new 3-dimensional theory greatly expands current understanding of liquefaction behavior and elucidates some areas in which current theory—which has been based principally on uni-directional laboratory testing—can be misleading or unconservative. Of particular interest are the topics of pore pressure generation and softening, the relationship between pore pressure and strain capacity, and the dilational lock-up in medium density sands that acts to limit large free-flow ty...
Nuclear Engineering and Design
Abstract In the United States, seismic probabilistic risk assessment is performed on nuclear powe... more Abstract In the United States, seismic probabilistic risk assessment is performed on nuclear power plant (NPP) designs to calculate mean annual frequencies of unacceptable performance, including core damage and large early release (of radiation). Seismic (base) isolation is a viable strategy to protect NPPs from extreme earthquake shaking but it has not yet been employed in the United States, in part due to a lack of clear regulatory guidance. Guidance and standards for seismic isolation of NPPs are now becoming available, but they do not explicitly address risk calculations. This paper presents seismic risk calculations for safety-related nuclear structures, including NPPs, isolated using nonlinear bearings, with a focus on assessing risk associated with the isolation system and the safety-related umbilical lines. Fragility curves are developed for the isolation systems and umbilical lines of NPPs located at eight sites of nuclear facilities across the United States assuming that the performance goals outlined in a forthcoming NUREG/CR focusing on seismic isolation and Chapter 12 of ASCE Standard 4-16 are satisfied. Risk is computed for isolation systems in NPPs with and without a stop. The mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance at each site is less than 1 × 10 - 6 ( 1 × 10 - 5 ) following the guidance (requirements) set forth in the NUREG/CR (ASCE 4) if a stop or displacement restraint is provided. Three strategies for reducing the calculated mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance are investigated and quantified, namely, 1) testing more prototype isolators to achieve greater confidence, 2) testing isolators for a larger displacement and corresponding axial force at a given confidence level, and 3) providing a stop. The annual frequency of unacceptable performance of the isolation system (and umbilical lines) is greater than 1 × 10 - 6 (the assumed target annual frequency of unacceptable performance), if the isolation system is designed per the forthcoming NUREG/CR and a stop is not provided, even though there is considerable reduction in risk if the isolators are tested for a greater displacement (and corresponding axial force) and/or with a greater confidence level than that required by the forthcoming NUREG/CR. The risk is well below 1 × 10 - 6 if a stop is provided. A stop is needed to achieve the corresponding target annual frequency of unacceptable performance of 1 × 10 - 5 if the isolators (and umbilical lines) are designed and tested per ASCE 4-16. The risk calculations were performed setting the design factor (the factor by which the ordinates of the design basis response spectrum per the ASCE 4-16 and ASCE 43-05 are increased) equal to 1.0. Because the achieved annual frequency of unacceptable performance of the isolation system (and umbilical lines) is less than the corresponding target set in the forthcoming NUREG/CR (a United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission report) and ASCE Standard 4-16 (that has developed from United States Department of Energy guidance), if the earthquake risk is dominated by horizontal ground shaking and a stop is provided, the design factor can be set equal to 1.0 for a seismically isolated NPP.
Nuclear power has safely, reliably, and economically contributed almost 20% of electrical generat... more Nuclear power has safely, reliably, and economically contributed almost 20% of electrical generation in the United States over the past two decades. It remains the single largest contributor (more than 70%) of non-greenhouse-gas-emitting electric power generation in the United States. Domestic demand for electrical energy is expected to experience a 31% growth from 2009 to 2035. At the same time,
In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US... more In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear power plants in the United States. In order to complement research focused on the Pacific Ocean by other organizations, the US NRC sponsored a collaborative research project with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the purpose of assessing tsunami hazard on the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. This research considers landslide and seismic tsunamigenic sources in both the near and the far fields. The first phase of this work, undertaken by the USGS and now nearly complete, consisted of collection, interpretation, and analysis of available offshore data, with significant effort focused on characterizing offshore near-field landslides and analyzing their tsunamigenic potential and properties. As part of the next phase of research, work will be undertaken to refine estimates of hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts for a wide variety of sites. Field investigations will be undertaken by the USGS in key locations of interest which currently lack sufficient existing data. Simultaneously, the MOST tsunami model developed at NOAA will be enhanced to include landslide-based initiation mechanisms. The enhanced MOST model will then be used to investigate the tsunamigenic sources characterized by the USGS to achieve the long-term goals of the US NRC program, which include an estimation of deterministic tsunami hazard levels for the length of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The potential for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment will also be explored in the final phases of the program.
This report presents the results of an investigation of the performance of the New Orleans region... more This report presents the results of an investigation of the performance of the New Orleans regional flood protection system during and after Hurricane Katrina, which struck the New Orleans region on August 29, 2005. This event resulted in the single most costly catastrophic failure of an engineered system in history. Current damage estimates at the time of this writing are on the order of 100to100 to 100to200 billion in the greater New Orleans area, and the official death count in New Orleans and southern Louisiana at the time of this writing stands at 1,293, with an additional 306 deaths in nearby southern Mississippi. An additional approximately 300 people are currently still listed as “missing”; it is expected that some of these missing were temporarily lost in the shuffle of the regional evacuation, but some of these are expected to have been carried out into the swamps and the Gulf of Mexico by the storm’s floodwaters, and some are expected to be recovered in the ongoing sifting through the debris of wrecked homes and businesses, so the current overall regional death count of 1,599 is expected to continue to rise a bit further. More than 450,000 people were initially displaced by this catastrophe, and at the time of this writing more than 200,000 residents of the greater New Orleans metropolitan area continue to be displaced from their homes by the floodwater damages from this storm event. This investigation has targeted three main questions as follow: (1) What happened?, (2) Why?, and (3) What types of changes are necessary to prevent recurrence of a disaster of this scale again in the future? To address these questions, this investigation has involved: (1) an initial field reconnaissance, forensic study and data gathering effort performed quickly after the arrival of Hurricanes Katrina (August 29, 2005) and Rita (September 24, 2005), (2) a review of the history of the regional flood protection system and its development, (3) a review of the challenging regional geology, (4) detailed studies of the events during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as the causes and mechanisms of the principal failures, (4) studies of the organizational and institutional issues affecting the performance of the flood protection system, (5) observations regarding the emergency repair and ongoing interim levee reconstruction efforts, and (6) development of findings and preliminary recommendations regarding changes that appear warranted in order to prevent recurrence of this type of catastrophe in the future. In the end, it is concluded that many things went wrong with the New Orleans flood protection system during Hurricane Katrina, and that the resulting catastrophe had it roots in three main causes: (1) a major natural disaster (the Hurricane itself), (2) the poor performance of the flood protection system, due to localized engineering failures, questionable judgments, errors, etc. involved in the detailed design, construction, operation and maintenance of the system, and (3) more global “organizational” and institutional problems associated with the governmental and local organizations responsible for the design, construction, operation, maintenance and funding of the overall flood protection system.
Investigation of the Performance of the New Orleans Flood Protection System in Hurricane Katrina on August 29, 2005: Volume 1. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/48909494_Investigation_of_the_Performance_of_the_New_Orleans_Flood_Protection_System_in_Hurricane_Katrina_on_August_29_2005_Volume_1 [accessed Jul 26, 2017].
The term " liquefaction " has been used to describe a wide range of phenomena associated with los... more The term " liquefaction " has been used to describe a wide range of phenomena associated with loss of strength of saturated soil due to dynamic loading. Historically, liquefaction initiation criteria are commonly based on either pore-pressure or strain amplitude within a sample. This has led to numerous definitions of " soil liquefaction " and inevitable inconsistencies within the geotechnical community over the years. In a recent laboratory study conducted at the University of California at Berkeley, the liquefaction " triggering " threshold criteria is selected as the first occurrence of either 6% double amplitude (DA) or 6% single amplitude (SA) shear strain, whichever occurs first. Of particular interest is the relationship between the threshold shear strain and the corresponding peak excess pore pressure, r u,max. In addition, it appears that the occurrence of 6% DA (or 6% SA) threshold shear strain is well correlated the onset of flow-type deformation behavior in liquefiable soils.
… Team, Report No. …, 2006
... Jonathan D. Bray, Jean-Louis Briaud, Carmen Cheung, Diego Cobos-Roa, Julien Cohen-Waeber, Bri... more ... Jonathan D. Bray, Jean-Louis Briaud, Carmen Cheung, Diego Cobos-Roa, Julien Cohen-Waeber, Brian D. Collins, Luke Ehrensing, Dan A. Farber, W. Michael Hanneman, Leslie F. Harder, Kofi Inkabi, Anne M. Kammerer, Deniz Karadeniz, Robert E. Kayen, Robb ES Moss ...
INL/EXT-15 36945, Mar 30, 2016
Over the last decade, particularly since implementation of the certified design regulatory approa... more Over the last decade, particularly since implementation of the certified design regulatory approaches outlined in 10 CFR 52, “Licenses, Certifications, and Approvals for Nuclear Power Plants,” interest has been increasing in the use of seismic isolation (SI) technology to support seismic safety in nuclear facilities. In 2009, the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated research activities to develop new guidance targeted at isolated facilities because SI is being considered for nuclear power plants in the U.S. One product of that research, which was developed around a risk-informed regulatory approach, was a draft NRC nuclear regulatory commission (NUREG) report that investigated and discussed considerations for use of SI in otherwise traditionally-founded large light water reactors (LWRs). A coordinated effort led to new provisions for SI of LWRs in the forthcoming standard ASCE/SEI 4-16, “Seismic Analysis of Safety-Related Nuclear Structures.” The risk-informed design philosophy that underpinned development of the technical basis for both of these documents led to a set of proposed performance objectives and acceptance criteria that was developed to serve as the foundation for future NRC guidance on the use of SI and related technology.
Although the guidance provided in the draft SI NUREG report and ASCE/SEI 4-16 provides a sound basis for further development of nuclear power plant designs incorporating SI, these initial documents were focused on surface-founded or near-surface-founded LWRs and were, necessarily, limited in scope. For example, there is limited information in either the draft NUREG report or ASCE/SEI 4-16 related to nonlinear analysis of soil-structure systems for deeply-embedded reactors, the isolation of components, and the use of vertical isolation systems. Also missing from the draft SI NUREG report are special considerations for licensing of isolated facilities using the certified design approach in 10 CFR 52 and a detailed discussion of seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) for isolated facilities.
To identify and address limitations in the initial guidance, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has initiated several projects focused on further developing the technical and licensing underpinnings for facilities using SI technology. These efforts include a 2014 workshop focused on SI, development of new structural analysis tools and methodologies, and development of this report to identify and describe regulatory gaps and challenges related to licensing of advanced reactors using SI. Nearly all of the gaps and challenges identified in the report fall outside the scope of current efforts (including those at INL). This report provides information for developing a roadmap for future activities related to SI of advanced reactors. Although design optimization and commercial aspects related to the use of SI have been identified in Coleman and Sabharwall (2014) and elsewhere as possible issues or areas of opportunity, only topics that may impact efficient and successful licensing are addressed in this report.
Because efforts to date related to regulatory guidance development (e.g., the draft SI NUREG report) have principally considered designs similar to those currently being licensed, the existing literature (some of which is discussed in this report) is reflective of traditional LWR designs. All of the regulatory gaps and challenges that apply to LWRs also apply to advanced reactors; and often the LWR case provides a simplified example as compared to the range of cases found in advanced reactors. Advanced reactor designs often lead to additional gaps and challenges not faced in LWR design. Although this report discusses advanced reactors broadly, the exact set of challenges and potential solutions for any particular reactor design is technology-specific.
SI offers potential significant economic benefits for advanced reactors because the isolation system can be used to reduce the site-dependent seismic demands below pre-qualified levels in the certified design. Site-independent SSCs such as reactor vessels and steam generators would be analyzed, designed and qualified just once. Their protective isolation systems would be site-specific.
vi
Advanced reactors will often be designed and constructed very differently from LWRs, regardless of whether or not they employ SI and damping devices. The key technical advances in civil and structural engineering needed to deploy advanced reactors are: (1) development of performance-based seismic design and assessment procedures for non-LWR reactors; (2) development and deployment of analysis methodologies suitable for computing the response of deeply-embedded power reactors, including nonlinear time domain, soil-structure-interaction analysis; and (3) development, prototyping, and deployment of two-dimensional and three-dimensional isolation systems suitable for components ranging in size and complexity from diesel generators to reactor vessels. Advances in Items 1 and 2 are needed regardless of whether seismic protective measures (i.e., such as those noted in Item 3) are deployed. Not covered in this report are other important technical advances in civil and structural engineering needed for economical deployment of advanced reactors such as development and deployment of modular construction strategies used to minimize “one-off” field work, schedule delays, and construction cost.
The identified gaps and challenges are addressed throughout this report and summarized in Section 7. High-impact/high-value topics that should be addressed in the short term, and that must be satisfactorily completed before substantial progress on other tasks can be made, include the following topics listed below. The number in parentheses refers to the subsection number in this report where the topic is discussed. These topics are also highlighted in Table 4.
• Verification and validation of models and tools for nonlinear soil structure interaction of embedded facilities (2.1.3)
• Guidance for ground motion selection and modification for design and SPRA (2.1.5)
• Procedures for SPRA of nonlinear soil-isolator-structure systems (2.3.1, 2.3.2)
• Component isolation systems (2.3.3)
• Certified design process for deeply-embedded advanced reactors (3.1, 3.2)
Over the past decade, major advances have occurred in both understanding and practice with regard... more Over the past decade, major advances have occurred in both understanding and practice with regard to assessment and mitigation of hazard associated with seismically induced soil liquefaction. Soil liquefaction engineering has evolved into a sub-field in its own right, and engineering assessment and mitigation of seismic soil liquefaction hazard is increasingly well addressed in both research and practice. This rapid evolution in the treatment of liquefaction has been pushed largely by a confluence of lessons and data provided by a series of major earthquakes over the past dozen years, as well as by the research and professional/political will engendered by these major seismic events. The overall field of soil liquefaction engineering is now beginning to coalesce into an internally consistent and comprehensive framework, and one in which the various elements are increasingly mutually supportive of each other. Although the rate of progress has been laudable, further advances are occur...
This paper presents the development of a comprehensive modeling-quality cyclic simple shear testi... more This paper presents the development of a comprehensive modeling-quality cyclic simple shear testing database composed of tests performed on fully-saturated samples of Monterey 0/30 sand. This newly developed database is composed of two series. The first consists of a comprehensive series of unidirectional tests incorporating a variety of relative densities and confining pressures. The second series consists of tests performed under a variety of multi-directional stress paths, including a number of stress paths never before examined in the laboratory. The bi-directional series is focused on soils that exhibit dilatant behavior (i.e. medium to high-density soils). The database is designed such that the unidirectional series serves as a comprehensive baseline against which to compare the results of the multidirectional series. Together, they represent an unmatched resource for both the development and calibration of 3-dimensional constitutive models and understanding the behavior of li...
A comprehensive testing database composed of modeling-quality multi-directional cyclic simple she... more A comprehensive testing database composed of modeling-quality multi-directional cyclic simple shear testing on medium to high relative density, fully-saturated samples of Monterey 0/30 sand has recently been developed. This testing program incorporated a variety of multi-directional stress paths, including a large number of stress paths never before examined. Results from these tests have proven useful for enhancing current understanding of liquefaction behavior by allowing for a more complete theory to emerge. This new 3-dimensional theory greatly expands current understanding of liquefaction behavior and elucidates some areas in which current theory—which has been based principally on uni-directional laboratory testing—can be misleading or unconservative. Of particular interest are the topics of pore pressure generation and softening, the relationship between pore pressure and strain capacity, and the dilational lock-up in medium density sands that acts to limit large free-flow ty...
Nuclear Engineering and Design
Abstract In the United States, seismic probabilistic risk assessment is performed on nuclear powe... more Abstract In the United States, seismic probabilistic risk assessment is performed on nuclear power plant (NPP) designs to calculate mean annual frequencies of unacceptable performance, including core damage and large early release (of radiation). Seismic (base) isolation is a viable strategy to protect NPPs from extreme earthquake shaking but it has not yet been employed in the United States, in part due to a lack of clear regulatory guidance. Guidance and standards for seismic isolation of NPPs are now becoming available, but they do not explicitly address risk calculations. This paper presents seismic risk calculations for safety-related nuclear structures, including NPPs, isolated using nonlinear bearings, with a focus on assessing risk associated with the isolation system and the safety-related umbilical lines. Fragility curves are developed for the isolation systems and umbilical lines of NPPs located at eight sites of nuclear facilities across the United States assuming that the performance goals outlined in a forthcoming NUREG/CR focusing on seismic isolation and Chapter 12 of ASCE Standard 4-16 are satisfied. Risk is computed for isolation systems in NPPs with and without a stop. The mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance at each site is less than 1 × 10 - 6 ( 1 × 10 - 5 ) following the guidance (requirements) set forth in the NUREG/CR (ASCE 4) if a stop or displacement restraint is provided. Three strategies for reducing the calculated mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance are investigated and quantified, namely, 1) testing more prototype isolators to achieve greater confidence, 2) testing isolators for a larger displacement and corresponding axial force at a given confidence level, and 3) providing a stop. The annual frequency of unacceptable performance of the isolation system (and umbilical lines) is greater than 1 × 10 - 6 (the assumed target annual frequency of unacceptable performance), if the isolation system is designed per the forthcoming NUREG/CR and a stop is not provided, even though there is considerable reduction in risk if the isolators are tested for a greater displacement (and corresponding axial force) and/or with a greater confidence level than that required by the forthcoming NUREG/CR. The risk is well below 1 × 10 - 6 if a stop is provided. A stop is needed to achieve the corresponding target annual frequency of unacceptable performance of 1 × 10 - 5 if the isolators (and umbilical lines) are designed and tested per ASCE 4-16. The risk calculations were performed setting the design factor (the factor by which the ordinates of the design basis response spectrum per the ASCE 4-16 and ASCE 43-05 are increased) equal to 1.0. Because the achieved annual frequency of unacceptable performance of the isolation system (and umbilical lines) is less than the corresponding target set in the forthcoming NUREG/CR (a United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission report) and ASCE Standard 4-16 (that has developed from United States Department of Energy guidance), if the earthquake risk is dominated by horizontal ground shaking and a stop is provided, the design factor can be set equal to 1.0 for a seismically isolated NPP.
Nuclear power has safely, reliably, and economically contributed almost 20% of electrical generat... more Nuclear power has safely, reliably, and economically contributed almost 20% of electrical generation in the United States over the past two decades. It remains the single largest contributor (more than 70%) of non-greenhouse-gas-emitting electric power generation in the United States. Domestic demand for electrical energy is expected to experience a 31% growth from 2009 to 2035. At the same time,
In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US... more In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear power plants in the United States. In order to complement research focused on the Pacific Ocean by other organizations, the US NRC sponsored a collaborative research project with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the purpose of assessing tsunami hazard on the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. This research considers landslide and seismic tsunamigenic sources in both the near and the far fields. The first phase of this work, undertaken by the USGS and now nearly complete, consisted of collection, interpretation, and analysis of available offshore data, with significant effort focused on characterizing offshore near-field landslides and analyzing their tsunamigenic potential and properties. As part of the next phase of research, work will be undertaken to refine estimates of hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts for a wide variety of sites. Field investigations will be undertaken by the USGS in key locations of interest which currently lack sufficient existing data. Simultaneously, the MOST tsunami model developed at NOAA will be enhanced to include landslide-based initiation mechanisms. The enhanced MOST model will then be used to investigate the tsunamigenic sources characterized by the USGS to achieve the long-term goals of the US NRC program, which include an estimation of deterministic tsunami hazard levels for the length of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The potential for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment will also be explored in the final phases of the program.
This report presents the results of an investigation of the performance of the New Orleans region... more This report presents the results of an investigation of the performance of the New Orleans regional flood protection system during and after Hurricane Katrina, which struck the New Orleans region on August 29, 2005. This event resulted in the single most costly catastrophic failure of an engineered system in history. Current damage estimates at the time of this writing are on the order of 100to100 to 100to200 billion in the greater New Orleans area, and the official death count in New Orleans and southern Louisiana at the time of this writing stands at 1,293, with an additional 306 deaths in nearby southern Mississippi. An additional approximately 300 people are currently still listed as “missing”; it is expected that some of these missing were temporarily lost in the shuffle of the regional evacuation, but some of these are expected to have been carried out into the swamps and the Gulf of Mexico by the storm’s floodwaters, and some are expected to be recovered in the ongoing sifting through the debris of wrecked homes and businesses, so the current overall regional death count of 1,599 is expected to continue to rise a bit further. More than 450,000 people were initially displaced by this catastrophe, and at the time of this writing more than 200,000 residents of the greater New Orleans metropolitan area continue to be displaced from their homes by the floodwater damages from this storm event. This investigation has targeted three main questions as follow: (1) What happened?, (2) Why?, and (3) What types of changes are necessary to prevent recurrence of a disaster of this scale again in the future? To address these questions, this investigation has involved: (1) an initial field reconnaissance, forensic study and data gathering effort performed quickly after the arrival of Hurricanes Katrina (August 29, 2005) and Rita (September 24, 2005), (2) a review of the history of the regional flood protection system and its development, (3) a review of the challenging regional geology, (4) detailed studies of the events during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as the causes and mechanisms of the principal failures, (4) studies of the organizational and institutional issues affecting the performance of the flood protection system, (5) observations regarding the emergency repair and ongoing interim levee reconstruction efforts, and (6) development of findings and preliminary recommendations regarding changes that appear warranted in order to prevent recurrence of this type of catastrophe in the future. In the end, it is concluded that many things went wrong with the New Orleans flood protection system during Hurricane Katrina, and that the resulting catastrophe had it roots in three main causes: (1) a major natural disaster (the Hurricane itself), (2) the poor performance of the flood protection system, due to localized engineering failures, questionable judgments, errors, etc. involved in the detailed design, construction, operation and maintenance of the system, and (3) more global “organizational” and institutional problems associated with the governmental and local organizations responsible for the design, construction, operation, maintenance and funding of the overall flood protection system.
Investigation of the Performance of the New Orleans Flood Protection System in Hurricane Katrina on August 29, 2005: Volume 1. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/48909494_Investigation_of_the_Performance_of_the_New_Orleans_Flood_Protection_System_in_Hurricane_Katrina_on_August_29_2005_Volume_1 [accessed Jul 26, 2017].
The term " liquefaction " has been used to describe a wide range of phenomena associated with los... more The term " liquefaction " has been used to describe a wide range of phenomena associated with loss of strength of saturated soil due to dynamic loading. Historically, liquefaction initiation criteria are commonly based on either pore-pressure or strain amplitude within a sample. This has led to numerous definitions of " soil liquefaction " and inevitable inconsistencies within the geotechnical community over the years. In a recent laboratory study conducted at the University of California at Berkeley, the liquefaction " triggering " threshold criteria is selected as the first occurrence of either 6% double amplitude (DA) or 6% single amplitude (SA) shear strain, whichever occurs first. Of particular interest is the relationship between the threshold shear strain and the corresponding peak excess pore pressure, r u,max. In addition, it appears that the occurrence of 6% DA (or 6% SA) threshold shear strain is well correlated the onset of flow-type deformation behavior in liquefiable soils.
… Team, Report No. …, 2006
... Jonathan D. Bray, Jean-Louis Briaud, Carmen Cheung, Diego Cobos-Roa, Julien Cohen-Waeber, Bri... more ... Jonathan D. Bray, Jean-Louis Briaud, Carmen Cheung, Diego Cobos-Roa, Julien Cohen-Waeber, Brian D. Collins, Luke Ehrensing, Dan A. Farber, W. Michael Hanneman, Leslie F. Harder, Kofi Inkabi, Anne M. Kammerer, Deniz Karadeniz, Robert E. Kayen, Robb ES Moss ...
Proc. Second …, 1998
The use of vertical drains to improve the performance of potentially liquefiable ground during ea... more The use of vertical drains to improve the performance of potentially liquefiable ground during earthquakes has received increased attention over the last two decades. This paper briefly describes the formulation of a finite element code, FEQDrain, developed to analyze the development of excess pore pressure in a layered soil profile, accounting for vertical and horizontal drainage. The code includes equations describing a vertical drain with a non-constant "equivalent hydraulic conductivity" which more accurately describes the flow properties of perforated pipes and wick drains, and head losses due to horizontal flow into the drain. It can also model the presence of a reservoir directly connected to the drain, allowing the accumulation of the water discharged by the drain element as well as head losses in the reservoir itself. In contrast, most analyses used in practice assume the water level in the drain is at the ground surface and therefore all flow into the drain escapes. The accumulation of water within the drain, however, can lead to a significant retardation of flow into the drain, causing an increase in the predicted pore pressures developed during the earthquake.
When an earthquake occurs near a nuclear power plant (NPP), specific information is quickly neede... more When an earthquake occurs near a nuclear power plant (NPP), specific information is quickly needed to support accurate real-time situational awareness, assessment of the potential impact to the installation, informed decision making, and effective communication with key stakeholders. To address this important need, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), in collaboration with the United States Geological Survey (USGS), are developing and implementing a custom ShakeCast system for post-earthquake real-time notification of ground shaking at NPP sites. The custom system, called Nuclear ShakeCast, is being developed to meet the unique informational needs of the global nuclear community. The project is currently focused on developing and implementing the Nuclear ShakeCast system within the IAEA and NRC. However, the software will be freely available to the international nuclear community once developed. Nuclear ShakeCast has the potential to incorporate observations, estimates of hazard levels, and plant fragility and license information into real-time automated comparisons of estimated ground motions against plant-specific shutdown criteria and basic NPP damage estimations. The earthquake shaking data used by the ShakeCast system is in the form of a ShakeMap, a map that displays earthquake shaking parameters spatially. If an earthquake occurs and is of sufficient size to trigger automatic creation of a new ShakeMap, the ShakeCast software retrieves the map and automatically begins a series of calculations based on protocols and databases specified a priori by the user. The system then sends an automated notification containing the information needed by key personnel in the response organization. The report includes basic information about the earthquake, the estimated levels of ground shaking calculated for those nuclear installation sites located in the affected region, and NPP design information important in the NPPs licensing basis. All this information–-supported by existing operating international seismological networks—is essential for a quick effective communication and decision making. Depending on the responding organization, communication may be with the effected utilities and NPPs, the regulatory body, the media, the public, and governmental organizations. Rapid and automated information is particularly important because affected organizations are busy dealing with the consequences and disruption caused by the earthquake.
Seismic risk analysis for nuclear facilities requires probabilistic characterization of both the ... more Seismic risk analysis for nuclear facilities requires probabilistic characterization of both the earthquake loading and the fragility of structures, systems and components, including consideration of the important contributors to uncertainty. The seismic hazard is determined through a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which requires demonstration that the analyses have identified, quantified and incorporated both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The explicit characterization of uncertainty contributes to regulatory assurance by reducing the likelihood of unforeseen circumstances that have not been considered in the safety evaluation. Aleatory (random) variability in both the degree and timing of future seismicity and the ground shaking generated by specific earthquakes is accounted for through an integration process within PSHA. However, the associated epistemic (modeling or interpretation) uncertainty requires expert judgment and the use of logic trees. For critical facilities such as nuclear power plants (NPPs), the judgments of multiple experts are required to capture the complete distribution of technically defensible interpretations of the available Earth science data. The guidelines developed by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) as described in NUREG/CR-6372 provide a structured framework for conducting multiple expert assessments. Following 15 years of experience in applying the SSHAC guidelines for hazard studies for critical facilities, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) conducted a study of the lessons learned from practice. These lessons have now been distilled into a new US NRC NUREG-series report that provides additional practical guidance on implementing the SSHAC assessment process. The NUREG focuses primarily on the higher levels of SSHAC process (Levels 3 and 4), which are the most complex but provide a higher degree of regulatory assurance. The new NUREG gives clear guidance on the requirements for such studies, particularly SSHAC Level 3, which received relatively little attention in the original SSHAC guidelines (where the emphasis was on Level 4 studies). This NUREG also corrects the misperception that the most significant increase in complexity and likelihood of regulatory assurance occurs between Levels 3 and 4. The actual increase occurs between Levels 2 and 3. Indeed, for new nuclear sites the NRC makes no distinction between Level 3 and 4 studies, both of which are viewed as appropriate processes for conducting new PSHA studies.
The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently sponsoring three key projects ... more The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently sponsoring three key projects in the area of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the central and eastern United States (CEUS). These projects will provide both new guidance describing the methods to be used for PSHA model development and actual updated seismic hazard assessment input models for the CEUS. These three projects, taken together, will result in an advanced regional PSHA model for critical facilities in the CEUS. They will also provide guidance, a well-documented case study, and a significant number of useful research products, for undertaking PSHA in the US and globally, particularly in low-to-moderate seismicity regions.
The first project is the nearly complete NRC Development Project for Practical Procedures for Implementing the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Guidelines and Updating Existing PSHAs. This research program will provide new implementation guidance to complement the original SSHAC guidelines (which are more formally known as NUREG/CR-6372 [1]). The new guidance will be documented in a new NUREG-series report currently in publication [2]. The NUREG provides guidance on the process used to develop Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) and Ground Motion Characterization (GMC) models. The second project, also nearly complete, is the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization (CEUS SSC) for Nuclear Facilities Project. The CEUS SSC project will develop an advanced regional SSC model for approximately half of the United States. Lastly, the Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Central and Eastern North America (NGA-East) Project will produce a suite of ground motion prediction equations that will form the basis for a new GMC model for low-to-moderate seismicity regions. Both the CEUS SSC project and the NGA-East project are being conducted as SSHAC Level 3 studies utilizing the original and new guidance.
The recent flooding and devastation of the greater New Orleans region during hurricane Katrina re... more The recent flooding and devastation of the greater New Orleans region during hurricane Katrina represented the most costly peace-time failure of an engineered system in North American history. Extensive investigations and analyses have been performed by several major teams in the wake of this disaster, and some very important lessons have been learned. Many of these have very direct and urgent applications to levee systems in other regions throughout the U.S., and the world. Lessons include the importance of proper evaluation of risk and hazard; so that appropriate decisions can be made regarding the levels of expense and effort that should be directed towards prevention of catastrophe, and the levels of post-disaster response capability that should be maintained as well. The making of appropriate decisions, given this information regarding risk levels, is then also important. Also of vital importance are numerous " engineering " lessons regarding analysis, design, construction and maintenance; hard-won lessons with applications to flood protection systems everywhere. We must now do everything possible to capitalize upon these; and to prevent a recurrence of this type of catastrophe in the future.
Over the last three years, the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has focused attention on... more Over the last three years, the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has focused attention on soil-structure-interaction (SSI) issues in order to better understand emerging issues and to update its regulatory guidance in regards to SSI. NRC's recent work is in advance of possible construction of new nuclear power plants (NPP) in the United States. Some conceptual designs for new NPP, also called advanced reactors, have proposed certain safety related NPP structures that will be partially or completely embedded below grade. In addition to this and other design features, some siting analyses for new NPP have used a performance-based method to determine the safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) ground motion. The performance-based method uses a target annual probability [e.g., 10-5 /year for the onset of significant inelastic deformation of systems, structures, and components] for the maximum acceptable facility damage from an earthquake. This paper presents some of the key areas that have been the focus of NRC activity over the last three years, namely: 1) the development of computational tools; 2) an assessment of deeply embedded structures and; 3) exploration of emerging issues; for example, performance-based methods and inclusion of seismic ground motion incoherency into SSI analyses.
A comprehensive testing database composed of modeling-quality multi-directional cyclic simple she... more A comprehensive testing database composed of modeling-quality multi-directional cyclic simple shear testing on medium to high relative density, fully-saturated samples of Monterey 0/30 sand has recently been developed. This testing program incorporated a variety of multi-directional stress paths, including a large number of stress paths never before examined. Results from these tests have proven useful for enhancing current understanding of liquefaction behavior by allowing for a more complete theory to emerge. This new 3-dimensional theory greatly expands current understanding of liquefaction behavior and elucidates some areas in which current theory—which has been based principally on uni-directional laboratory testing—can be misleading or unconservative. Of particular interest are the topics of pore pressure generation and softening, the relationship between pore pressure and strain capacity, and the dilational lock-up in medium density sands that acts to limit large free-flow type deformations. Insight has also been gained on the complex effects caused by an initial static shear stress such as would be imposed by sloping ground conditions or the presence of a structure.
This paper presents the development of a comprehensive modeling-quality cyclic simple shear testi... more This paper presents the development of a comprehensive modeling-quality cyclic simple shear testing database composed of tests performed on fully-saturated samples of Monterey 0/30 sand. This newly developed database is composed of two series. The first consists of a comprehensive series of uni-directional tests incorporating a variety of relative densities and confining pressures. The second series consists of tests performed under a variety of multi-directional stress paths, including a number of stress paths never before examined in the laboratory. The bi-directional series is focused on soils that exhibit dilatant behavior (i.e. medium to high-density soils). The database is designed such that the uni-directional series serves as a comprehensive baseline against which to compare the results of the multi-directional series. Together, they represent an unmatched resource for both the development and calibration of 3-dimensional constitutive models and understanding the behavior of liquefiable soils under both uni-directional and multi-directional loading.