Jelena Stojilković Gnjatović | University of Belgrade (original) (raw)

Papers by Jelena Stojilković Gnjatović

Erdkunde, 2023

Recent empirical research on internal migration has focused on the change in migration volume, be... more Recent empirical research on internal migration has focused on the change in migration volume, before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, by the degree of urbanization. Less is known about the types of rural areas that are attracting internal migrants. This study aims to explore the changes in internal rural migration patterns in Serbia due to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the types of rural settlements as places of destinations and types of urban settlements as places of the origin of migrants. Relying on the additionally processed official national annual statistical data for the period 2018-2021, we offer findings on the differences in volume and socio-demographic characteristics of migrants across six internal migration flows (from small towns, medium-sized towns, and large cities, to suburban and non-suburban rural settlements). The results reveal that the pandemic affected an increase of rural-rural migration as well as rural in-migration from mediumsized towns. We also find that after an initial drop in values for in-and out-migration rates in 2020, relocation intensity exceeded the pre-pandemic level in 2021, with a positive net migration rate for all age groups except 15-30. The unfavorable economic characteristics of rural in-migrants shifted slightly in pandemic years since the share of active and population with personal means rose in non-suburban settlements, while the percentage of dependent population decreased. The opposite holds for suburban settlements. Zusammenfassung: Jüngste empirische Untersuchungen zur Binnenmigration haben sich auf die Veränderung des Migrationsaufkommens vor und nach dem Ausbruch der COVID-19-Pandemie mit Fokus auf urbane Räume konzentriert; Veränderungen in ländlichen Räumen wurde bisher hingegen wenig Beachtung geschenkt. Diese Studie zielt darauf ab, die Veränderungen der internen ländlichen Migrationsmustern in Serbien im Kontext der COVID-19-Pandemie zu untersuchen, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf ländlichen Siedlungen als Zielorte und städtische Räume als Herkunftsorte von Migranten liegt. Auf Basis der offizieller nationalen statistischen Jahresdaten für den Zeitraum 2018-2021 werden Erkenntnisse über die Unterschiede hinsichtlich Umfang und soziodemografischen Merkmalen der Migranten in sechs internen Wanderungsbewegungen präsentiert (von Kleinstädten, mittelgroßen Städten und Großstädten zu suburbanen und nicht suburbanen ländlichen Siedlungen). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Pandemie zu einem Anstieg der Migration innerhalb ländlicher Räume und einer Zuwanderung aus mittelgroßen Städten führte. Wir stellen außerdem fest, dass nach einem anfänglichen Rückgang der Werte für die Zu-und Abwanderungsraten im Jahr 2020 die Migrationsintensität im Jahr 2021 das Niveau vor der Pandemie überstieg, mit einer positiven Nettowanderungsrate für alle Altersgruppen außer den 15-bis 30-Jährigen. Die ungünstigen wirtschaftlichen Verhältnisse ländlicher Migranten haben sich in den Pandemiejahren leicht verändert, da der Anteil der Erwerbstätigen und der Bevölkerung mit persönlichen Mitteln in nicht vorstädtischen Siedlungen stieg, während der Anteil der abhängigen Bevölkerung abnahm. Das Gegenteil gilt für Vorstadtsiedlungen.

Демографија, 2017

Demografija izlazi jednom godišnje. Mišljenja autora ne odražavaju nužno gledište uredništva. Obj... more Demografija izlazi jednom godišnje. Mišljenja autora ne odražavaju nužno gledište uredništva. Objavljeni prilozi se indeksiraju u sledećim bazama:-CEEOL (Central and Eastern European Online Library, Frankfurt am Main)-SCIndeks (Srpski citatni indeks) Izdavanje časopisa Demografija finansijski podržava Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije. Prilozi objavljeni u časopisu mogu se koristiti samo pod uslovima licence Creative Commons Autorstvo-Nekomercijalno-Bez Prerade 4.0. međunarodna (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) UDK: 314 COBISS.SR-ID 118674444 University of Belgrade Faculty of Geography www.gef.bg.ac.rs Demografija demografija.gef.bg.ac.rs

Drustvena istrazivanja, 2020

All ex-Yugoslav countries experienced improvements in life expectancy during the last few decades... more All ex-Yugoslav countries experienced improvements in life expectancy during the last few decades. This study describes and compares recent life expectancy trends in Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia. What age groups and what causes of death account for the largest mortality declines? Have the three countries joined the cardiovascular revolution? Do patterns differ between countries? And, is there room for further improvements? We use life tables and decomposition methods to address these questions. Our key findings are: 1) lower mortality from circulatory diseases at older ages contributed most to life expectancy growth 2001-2017 for both sexes in all three countries; 2) despite this common pattern, life expectancy in Slovenia grew fastest and the gap between countries increased; 3) under the Slovenian age-specific cardiovascular mortality schedule, Croatia added 1.79 years to both female and male life expectancies, while Serbia added 3.97 and 3.26 to female and male life expectancies.

Socioloski pregled, 2019

Population ageing in Serbia has pervading effect on many societal spheres. Paradigm of active age... more Population ageing in Serbia has pervading effect on many societal spheres. Paradigm of active ageing highlights the importance for older to lead healthy and productive life. The aim of this paper is to explore active ageing practices of institutionalised older citizens considering their sociodemographic characteristics and migration background. Semi-structured interview, as a qualitative research method was used to grasp perceptions and experiences of 27 older residents in nursing homes regarding adjustment in later life and daily activities. Additional valuable insight on topic was gained from institutional social workers. According to the results, the routine of daily living of the elders varies depending on individual abilities, preferences, health, marital status and migration history. The findings suggest that institutional setting does not have to represent barrier to active ageing, with implications for further research and practice.

Demografija

Age waves is theoretical concept that take into account the importance of disordered cohort flows... more Age waves is theoretical concept that take into account the importance of disordered cohort flows, mainly as by-product of demographic transition (fluctuating fertility and improved survival), but also external factors (especially wars). The primary age wave as a consequence of high births after the Second World War in Serbia did not remain an isolated phenomenon, but created a secondary cohort wave although the fertility indicators were declining, which is visible as the thickening of the pyramid base in 1981 due to the absolute increase in births. Cohort "tide" has influenced the shape of the pyramid to longer retain the properties of the stationary type because the baby boom generation reproduced the "echo" generation, which is a counterbalance to extreme demographic aging as the baby boom generation entered the contingent of the old population. A cohort analysis of the elderly population shows that the declining share of the elderly in a certain age group is ...

Extremely high temperatures are environmental factor that can have pronounced negative consequenc... more Extremely high temperatures are environmental factor that can have pronounced negative consequences on population even in the 21th century, as excess mortality during summer 2003 in Western Europe has proved. The aim of this research is to assess the relation between heat waves and daily mortality counts in Belgrade (Serbia) during the summer months in period 2000-2010, with emphasize on exceptionally hot summer of 2007. We used two different measures of heat wave in order to test which one better identifies days affected by heat wave and mortality higher than expected: Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) based on air temperature and apparent temperature (Tapp), which uses the temperature and humidity conditions. Most of WSDI events lasted for 6 days, and Tapp events were shorter and only in few cases lasted more than 4 days. Poisson distribution was used to model mortality data in summer months and cumulative probability to define three thresholds (90th, 95th and 99th percentile) for daily extreme mortality counts. The threshold probability for 90th percentile (10% probability for death occurrence) during summer season was 65 death counts, for 95th (5%) was 68 deaths and 99th percentile of daily mortality (1%) would happened if mortality surpasses 72 dead. The expected baseline mortality is average mortality for investigated period (55.3 persons/day). We found that 75.7 % of overall time duration that WSDI identified as heat wave period and 88.5% time of Tapp are with mortality higher than expected. The main factors for unlikely high number of deaths are prolonged period with extreme temperature and higher daily average temperature excess. Also, both indices overlapped and covered the same calendar days (Tapp being on average shorter and positioned within the WSDI).

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candi... more Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vulnerability.

Design/methodology/approach
– The authors analyzed the impact of weather conditions on human health in Belgrade during the summer 2007 that was extremely warm in Southeastern Europe and Serbia. Daily cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality counts were used in Poisson regression model with air temperature as predictor variable. Also, three different heat wave indices (Warm Spell Duration Index, apparent temperature and index based on daily minimum temperature) were tested in order to estimate their ability to capture episodes with mortality higher than expected.

Findings
– The temperature has the highest influence on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality, while slightly modifies respiratory mortality. According to regression equation, a 1°C increase in mean daily temperature is associated with a 4.6 percent (p<0.0001), 2.2 percent (p<0.0001) and 1.6 percent (insignificant for p<0.10) increase in cerebrovascular, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively.

Originality/value
– Even thought the Law recognizes the heat wave as natural hazard, there is no concrete measures and action for prevention of excess mortality. It is shown that extreme temperature had numerous social consequences on city's residents in the summer 2007. Given the results the authors got, it is recommended that the HHWS should be implemented in health protection plans in Belgrade.

In this paper, we are dealing with two extreme events in temperature and population – heat wave a... more In this paper, we are dealing with two extreme events in temperature and population – heat
wave and mortality. Our aim is to assess the relation between high temperatures and daily
mortality counts during the summer months in the period 2000–2010 in Belgrade (Serbia).
In order to establish this connection, we used Poisson regression and two different measures
of heat wave: Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and apparent temperature (Tapp). As
mean daily temperature increases over 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles, average number of
deaths increases for 15.3% (p < .01), 22.4% (p < .05) and 32.0% (insignificant for p < .1).
We tested three different thresholds (90th, 95th, 99th) for WSDI and Tapp in order to
separate the hottest heat-wave episodes. On average, mortality is higher than expected for
13.4%, 16.7% and 28.3% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for WSDI) and 16.1%, 17.3%
and 32.5% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for Tapp). Estimated mortality excess with heatwave
indices is in accordance with regression output, meaning that WSDI and Tapp are good
tools for heat-wave identification. During the most severe episode in July 2007, absolute
temperature maximum (43.6°C) and daily maximum mortality counts (94 dead) were
recorded in the same day (24 July 2007).

Th ree of the most prominent demographic processes in the today’s world are low birth rate, exten... more Th ree of the most prominent demographic processes in the today’s world
are low birth rate, extending life expectancy and population ageing, which is
consequence of fi rst two. Th e aim of this paper is to shed some new light on
process of aging of the oldest old, who are defi ned as population older than 80
years. Special attention is given to the diff erent approaches in defi ning oldest
old, such as biodemographic, functional, gerontological and demographic
approach. Number and share of oldest was rising slowing in the past, and regional
diff erences in the diff erent parts of the world was always apparent. Africa always
was and will be last in the number of oldest people, and one of the reasons is
certainly HIV and AIDS. On the other hand, Europe and North America always
had and will have greatest number and share of oldest old. Share of the oldest
population in Serbia had fastest growth, when compared with other population
groups. In last half a century, their number nearly tripled. First time after Second
World War, the proportion of oldest old dropped compared to the previous
census, and probable reason is methodological change. Absolute number of
oldest in Serbia grew rapidly during intercensal period between 2002. and 2010,
according to the population estimates, there were 258.629 people older than
80 years in Serbia (without Kosovo and Metohija). Population projection show
continuality in this increase, and based on medium variant for 2032. we can
expect 5.37% of total population to be older than 80 years. In addition, it should
be noted that clear sex structure asymmetry is plausible, since there will be
4.40% of oldest old male and 6.31% of female.Th is trend will have signifi cant
impact on diff erent social systems, especially when it comes to the population
health, economic status and wellbeing. Larger number of dependent population
itself in the future rises question concerning generational equity, health issues,
role of NGOs, gender equality etc.

One of the most important paradigms that emerged in demographic literature when it comes to mitig... more One of the most important paradigms that emerged in demographic literature when it comes to mitigation of the population ageing in developed world is the concept of active ageing. At the core of this approach is the idea that elderly population is a very important and resourceful segment of a society because of their large experience in different fields that can contribute to the welfare of all. However, there are still no empirical studies of the population such as pensioners that can contribute the most. Even though elderly pensioners are economically inactive, they have a considerable spare time and non-negligible financial assets. In order to empirically enlighten the practice of active ageing in Serbia, we conducted a survey based on the questionnaire from Special Eurobarometer Report 378 dealing with issues of active ageing in Europe. We chose as the target population (already active) participants of the Sixth Olympiad of Sport, Health and Culture for the Third Age held in Vrnjačka Banja. As a result, we got comprehensive responses to a variety of questions, which could be used as guidelines on how to achieve active aging. Additionally, collected evidences of different attitudes of the active elderly towards family, young generations, work, pension, and the like are elaborated.

"While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, t... more "While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to
demographers, the XXI century will be century of population aging. Statistics
undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue it’s growth in the future. If
old age is seen as period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and
increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent population,
trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed
countries, this population category is no longer treated as passive or as a "burden of
society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast
to growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the
population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is to introduce into domestic
literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected
with socio-historical conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of
aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new
methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account
the biometric rather than chronological approach. Calculation of prospective years is
a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy
from life tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one
we are comparing with is standard year), so that phrase "40s is the new 30s" or "70s
the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a
realistic indicator suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals,
which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered old. „Prospective
threshold“ is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is
subjective choice made by Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this
paper) and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic indicators was
constructed, redefined more precisely, based on prospective age: (prospective) share
of the elderly, (prospective) median age and (prospective) old age dependency ratio.
With respect to the remaining years of life in the calculation of demographic aging,
world’s population will be in rejuvenation process by 2035, longer and more intense
than defined by proportion of the elderly. Prospective approach found that longer
life expectancy in developing countries is not only a result of the decrease in infant
and child mortality, but also the decrease of the old population mortality. Data used
in this paper are from period life tables and censuses, for period 1953–2010.
Prospective age threshold in Serbia was always higher than retrospective age (60,17
in 1953 .and 63,15 in 2010. for total population) , or the proportion of people with a
life expectancy less than 15 years has consistently been higher than the share of
people older than 65 years (17.86% vs. 16.92% in 2010). According to prospective
criteria, differences between men and women almost do not existent, so that it calls
into question the widely accepted feminization of the elderly. The same conclusion
stands when we discuss (prospective) median age, population is older using
prospective (47,15 years) than traditional (41.41) indicator in 2010, also, compared
with rest of the region or with more developed countries, prospective median age is
higher in Serbia. Also, prospective old-age dependecy ratio is higher than
convetional one during analyzed period. Prospective concept and amendments are
necessary in public policy, especially pension and health care system, because in
combination with traditional approaches can create more justified distribution for
older and younger generations."

Stanovništvo, Jan 1, 2010

Kako će demografski trendovi uticati na dalji razvoj razvijenog sveta? Da li će se proces starenj... more Kako će demografski trendovi uticati na dalji razvoj razvijenog sveta? Da li će se proces starenja starih nastaviti i da li je ljudski rod dostigao maksimum očekivanog trajanja života? Kako će zdravsteni sistem biti pogođen promenama u starosnoj strukturi stanovništva i koje će bolesti dominirati u budućem društvu u kojem će rasti broj starih? Zašto veliki broj rano penzionisanih stanovnika smanjuje efikasnost funkcionisanja penzionog sistema? Odgovore na ova i mnoga druga pitanja vezana za demografiju, ekonomiju i epidemiologiju daju ugledni naučnici, ostavljajući lični pečat i doprinos u knjizi Aging, Health and Public Policy.

V svojem štirinajstem letu je multikonferenca Informacijska družba (http://is.ijs.si) znova dokaz... more V svojem štirinajstem letu je multikonferenca Informacijska družba (http://is.ijs.si) znova dokazala, da je ena vodilnih srednjeevropskih konferenc, ki združuje znanstvenike z različnih raziskovalnih področij, povezanih z informacijsko družbo. V letu 2011 smo v multikonferenco povezali devet odličnih neodvisnih konferenc. V Sloveniji in po svetu mrgoli konferenc, naša multikonferenca pa izstopa po širini in obsegu tem, ki jih obravnava, po akademski odprtosti in širini, ki spodbuja nove ideje, predvsem pa po tem, da ni tradicionalna konferenca, ampak se pogumno loteva vizionarskih tem, pogosto v interaktivni ali delavniški obliki.

Retirees, as a group of economically inactive population, are especially important for future pop... more Retirees, as a group of economically inactive population, are especially important for future population trends, since their number is constantly growing. Our pension and disability insurance fund has a problem managing unfavorable socioeconomic trends and demographic reality, considering that the number of employees is steadily declining. Employee to retiree ratio has been affected by serious changes during the last half a century, and it declined from 5:1 in 1960s to 1,4:1 nowadays. This is a result of population ageing (life expectancy rising and dropping of total fertility rate) and unrestrictive law that allowed pensions to those who didn't deserve it (the share of disability retirees is significantly higher than that in other countries). An additional issue is the fact that baby boom generations are a few years away from the legal age acquired for the age pension. The data used in this paper are provided by the pension and disability fund.

The aim of this paper is to shed more light on population aging by using indicators such as years... more The aim of this paper is to shed more light on population aging by using indicators such as years of service and average years in retirement, since the most benefits from the Fund for Pension and Disability Insurance are paid for elderly. As a method for better understanding the structure of pensioners, we used the data on years one spends as employee before gaining pension benefits, so we could get better information about previous activity of retirees, but also to emphasize legal issues that have increased the number of early retirement recipients. Many countries do not allow early retirement, so the limitation of minimum years required for the early retirement is necessary for reduction of pension spending. Another important characteristic of the financial sustainability of the Fund for Pension and Disability Insurance are the average years in retirement. Given the fact that the life expectancy of the elderly is slightly increasing, it is realistic to expect longer use of pension of old-age and disability pensioners, who are on average younger. Apart from showing the level of financial sustainability of the fund, this indicator shows the characteristics of mortality in the country. Pension Fund data show certain development tendencies that will continue in the future because all processes related to population are long-term, including those related to pensioners that are beside socio-economic, influenced by demographic factors.

Sudden increase in the number of live births after the Second World War due to an increase in fer... more Sudden increase in the number of live births after the Second World War due to an
increase in fertility rates has led to the formation of cohorts with specific
characteristics or baby boom generation. This generation is unique in the history of
the demographic phenomenon that has affected and affects the functioning of many
segments of society. The aim of this paper is to assess structure of baby boomers
who are few years away from retirement, using demographic data. Impact of baby
boomer age structure of current and future retirees is described with a graphical
display of current and projected age pyramid of baby boomers. Demographic pattern
that women live longer than men is evident in the projected pyramid. In addition, the
number of baby boomers will lead to a "younger" old population. The imbalance in
the number of men and women pensioners, as well as older cohorts of women and
female baby boomers was analysed. As a result, an increasing trend of women's age
pensioners who are members of the baby boom generation was clearly observed,
which is opposite to the older cohort of women who often were family pensioners.
Different circumstances and conditions in which female boomers lived and worked
will form a new "pension model" because they will gain their benefits as well as
men, for the first time in significant number, unlike their mothers, which gained the
right to retire after they become widows. Number of women age pensioners is
getting greater compering to men, as the result of changes in the economic activities
of women in the last half of the 20th century. When baby boomers retire and exit the
working population, this will create a vacuum, because the numerically smaller
generations will enter working population, while the sudden and very shortly, the
number of population older than 60 or 65 will increase, most of them will likely to
acquire the right to a pension. It is undeniable that baby boomers had impact on
demographic structure, but also on society as a whole. They have been extremely
important factor of development of our country during their working career, they are
healthier then previous generation and many of them possess the knowledge and
experience gained by the years, so rigid prediction of future changes that will
produce the retirement of this generation has no excuses. Retired baby boom
generation will perhaps lead to new, better way of life in old age.

Erdkunde, 2023

Демографија, 2017

Drustvena istrazivanja, 2020

Socioloski pregled, 2019

Demografija

Stanovništvo, Jan 1, 2010