David Manley | University of Bristol (original) (raw)

Papers by David Manley

Research paper thumbnail of Multi-scale Inequality and Segregation: Theory and Estimation

Research paper thumbnail of Geographies of Socio-Economic Inequality

Research paper thumbnail of Occupational segregation in London: A multilevel framework for modelling segregation

Research paper thumbnail of Experienced and Inherited Disadvantage: A Longitudinal Study of Early Adulthood Neighbourhood Careers of Siblings

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of Sorting Out Neighbourhood Effects Using Sibling Data

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Multi-scale Inequality and Segregation: Theory and Estimation

The Urban Book Series, 2021

Thischapterexploresmulti-scaleestimationmethods as an important future direction for segregation ... more Thischapterexploresmulti-scaleestimationmethods as an important future direction for segregation research in China. We explain how these recently developed methods help address many longstanding problems in traditional index-based segregation research and open up new avenues of research on Chinese cities. We explain the conceptual framework underpinning multilevel analysis in the form of a series of propositions that capture the theoretical basis and outline why a multilevel approach to segregation is advantageous. We then illustrate how this approach can be applied to China using census data on Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province. We use the model to consider segregation of different ethnic groups and of migrants versus non-migrants. We conclude with a discussion of our findings and our thoughts on future directions for research and the implications for policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Quantitative Geography III: Future Challenges & Challenging Futures

In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantita... more In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantitative geography. In this final part, we focus on the future. We argue that quantitative geographers are most helpful when we can simplify difficult problems using our distinct domain expertise. To do this, we must clarify the theory underpinning core conceptual problems in quantitative geography. Then, we examine the social forces that are shaping the future of quantitative geography. We conclude with criteria for how quantitative geography might succeed in addressing these challenges.

Research paper thumbnail of Multiscale Segregation: Multilevel Modeling of Dissimilarity—Challenging the Stylized Fact That Segregation Is Greater the Finer the Spatial Scale

The Professional Geographer, 2019

Research paper thumbnail of Trajectories of ethnic neighbourhood change: Spatial patterns of increasing ethnic diversity

Population, Space and Place, 2017

Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse, and in most cities, the share of the populati... more Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse, and in most cities, the share of the population belonging to an ethnic minority is growing. Studies analysing changing ethnic geographies often limit their analysis to changes in ethnic concentrations in neighbourhoods between 2 points in time. Such a temporally limited approach limits our understanding of pathways of ethnic neighbourhood change and of the underlying factors contributing to change. This paper analyses full trajectories of neighbourhood change in the 4 largest cities in the Netherlands between 1999 and 2013. Our modelling strategy categorises neighbourhoods based on their unique growth trajectories of the ethnic population composition, providing insight in processes of ethnic segregation and its drivers. Our main conclusion is that the ethnic composition in neighbourhoods remains relatively stable over time. We however find evidence for a slow trend towards deconcentration of ethnic minorities and increased populati...

Research paper thumbnail of Does segregation reduce socio-spatial mobility? Evidence from four European countries with different inequality and segregation contexts

Urban Studies, 2019

The neighbourhood in which people live reflects their social class and preferences, so studying s... more The neighbourhood in which people live reflects their social class and preferences, so studying socio-spatial mobility between neighbourhood types gives insight into the openness of spatial class structures of societies and into the ability of people to leave disadvantaged neighbourhoods. In this paper we study the extent to which people move between different types of neighbourhoods by socio-economic status in different inequality and segregation contexts in four European countries: Sweden, the Netherlands, the UK (England and Wales), and Estonia. The study is based on population registers and census data for the 2001–2011 period. For England and Wales, which has long had high levels of income inequalities and high levels of socio-economic segregation, we find that levels of mobility between neighbourhood types are low and opportunities to move to more socio-economically advantaged neighbourhoods are modest. In Estonia, which used to be one of the most equal and least segregated co...

Research paper thumbnail of Exploring constituency-level estimates for the 2017 British general election

International Journal of Market Research, 2018

Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s est... more Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s estimated national vote share. Although of considerable interest, these data do not put the spotlight on the marginal seats, the constituencies targeted by the parties for intensive canvassing; these are where the contest for a majority in the House of Commons is won and lost. There have been some polls covering those constituencies as a whole, but very few of individual constituencies so there was very little reporting of the outcome for each party in those individual constituencies. That changed with the 2017 general election, when three analysts published estimates on the Internet of each party’s vote share separately for each constituency and with those data predicted which party would win each seat. This paper explores the veracity of those estimates, finding that although in general terms they accurately represented the relative position of each constituency in the share of each party...

Research paper thumbnail of Spatial scale and the geographical polarization of the American electorate

Political Geography, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of Better to stay or go? A longitudinal study of mobility over the educational life course

International Journal of Population Data Science, 2018

BackgroundThere has been substantial discussion in the literature about where you grow up and if ... more BackgroundThere has been substantial discussion in the literature about where you grow up and if whether or not you experience social and spatial mobility during childhood has substantial bearing upon later life achievement (Pribesh and Downey, 1999; Gasper et al, 2010; Sharkey and Elwert, 2011). ObjectivesThis paper utilises data from the National Pupil Database (NPD) and a quantitative framework to explore the impact of residential mobility on educational outcomes. Many previous studies of neighbourhood mobility have used point in time measures when studying inequality, which means that an individual’s neighbourhood trajectory is overlooked. Data/MethodsWe follow a single cohort of pupils’ over an eleven year time period to analyse their mobility along with their individual characteristics to provide a clear understanding of who is moving and the impact this has on them in terms of educational attainment. We also use the index of multiple deprivation as a measure of neighbourhood ...

Research paper thumbnail of Human capital, family structure and religiosity shaping British Muslim women’s labour market participation

Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Are Australia’s suburbs swamped by Asians and Muslims? Countering political claims with data

Australian Geographer, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of The segregation of generations: ancestral groups in Sydney, 2011

Geographical Research, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Residential mobility

Progress in Human Geography, 2016

Research into health disparities has long recognized the importance of residential mobility as a ... more Research into health disparities has long recognized the importance of residential mobility as a crucial factor in determining health outcomes. However, a lack of connectivity between the health and mobility literatures has led to a stagnation of theory and application on the health side, which lacks the detail and temporal perspectives now seen as critical to understanding residential mobility decisions. Through a critical re-think of mobility processes with respect to health outcomes and an exploitation of longitudinal analytical techniques, we argue that health geographers have the potential to better understand and identify the relationship that residential mobility has with health.

Research paper thumbnail of The Growing Spatial Polarization of Presidential Voting in the United States, 1992–2012: Myth or Reality?

PS: Political Science & Politics, 2016

ABSTRACTThere has been considerable debate regarding a hypothesis that the American electorate ha... more ABSTRACTThere has been considerable debate regarding a hypothesis that the American electorate has become spatially more polarized over recent decades. Using a new method for measuring polarization, this paper evaluates that hypothesis regarding voting for the Democratic party’s presidential candidates at six elections since 1992, at three separate spatial scales. The findings are unambiguous: polarization has increased substantially across the country’s nine census divisions, across the 49 states within those divisions, and across the 3,077 counties within the states—with the most significant change at the finest of those three scales.

Research paper thumbnail of A response to Gorard

The Psychology of Education Review, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of MLwin worksheet for MCMC results with graphs in Display 10

Research paper thumbnail of Multi-scale Inequality and Segregation: Theory and Estimation

Research paper thumbnail of Geographies of Socio-Economic Inequality

Research paper thumbnail of Occupational segregation in London: A multilevel framework for modelling segregation

Research paper thumbnail of Experienced and Inherited Disadvantage: A Longitudinal Study of Early Adulthood Neighbourhood Careers of Siblings

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of Sorting Out Neighbourhood Effects Using Sibling Data

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Multi-scale Inequality and Segregation: Theory and Estimation

The Urban Book Series, 2021

Thischapterexploresmulti-scaleestimationmethods as an important future direction for segregation ... more Thischapterexploresmulti-scaleestimationmethods as an important future direction for segregation research in China. We explain how these recently developed methods help address many longstanding problems in traditional index-based segregation research and open up new avenues of research on Chinese cities. We explain the conceptual framework underpinning multilevel analysis in the form of a series of propositions that capture the theoretical basis and outline why a multilevel approach to segregation is advantageous. We then illustrate how this approach can be applied to China using census data on Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province. We use the model to consider segregation of different ethnic groups and of migrants versus non-migrants. We conclude with a discussion of our findings and our thoughts on future directions for research and the implications for policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Quantitative Geography III: Future Challenges & Challenging Futures

In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantita... more In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantitative geography. In this final part, we focus on the future. We argue that quantitative geographers are most helpful when we can simplify difficult problems using our distinct domain expertise. To do this, we must clarify the theory underpinning core conceptual problems in quantitative geography. Then, we examine the social forces that are shaping the future of quantitative geography. We conclude with criteria for how quantitative geography might succeed in addressing these challenges.

Research paper thumbnail of Multiscale Segregation: Multilevel Modeling of Dissimilarity—Challenging the Stylized Fact That Segregation Is Greater the Finer the Spatial Scale

The Professional Geographer, 2019

Research paper thumbnail of Trajectories of ethnic neighbourhood change: Spatial patterns of increasing ethnic diversity

Population, Space and Place, 2017

Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse, and in most cities, the share of the populati... more Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse, and in most cities, the share of the population belonging to an ethnic minority is growing. Studies analysing changing ethnic geographies often limit their analysis to changes in ethnic concentrations in neighbourhoods between 2 points in time. Such a temporally limited approach limits our understanding of pathways of ethnic neighbourhood change and of the underlying factors contributing to change. This paper analyses full trajectories of neighbourhood change in the 4 largest cities in the Netherlands between 1999 and 2013. Our modelling strategy categorises neighbourhoods based on their unique growth trajectories of the ethnic population composition, providing insight in processes of ethnic segregation and its drivers. Our main conclusion is that the ethnic composition in neighbourhoods remains relatively stable over time. We however find evidence for a slow trend towards deconcentration of ethnic minorities and increased populati...

Research paper thumbnail of Does segregation reduce socio-spatial mobility? Evidence from four European countries with different inequality and segregation contexts

Urban Studies, 2019

The neighbourhood in which people live reflects their social class and preferences, so studying s... more The neighbourhood in which people live reflects their social class and preferences, so studying socio-spatial mobility between neighbourhood types gives insight into the openness of spatial class structures of societies and into the ability of people to leave disadvantaged neighbourhoods. In this paper we study the extent to which people move between different types of neighbourhoods by socio-economic status in different inequality and segregation contexts in four European countries: Sweden, the Netherlands, the UK (England and Wales), and Estonia. The study is based on population registers and census data for the 2001–2011 period. For England and Wales, which has long had high levels of income inequalities and high levels of socio-economic segregation, we find that levels of mobility between neighbourhood types are low and opportunities to move to more socio-economically advantaged neighbourhoods are modest. In Estonia, which used to be one of the most equal and least segregated co...

Research paper thumbnail of Exploring constituency-level estimates for the 2017 British general election

International Journal of Market Research, 2018

Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s est... more Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s estimated national vote share. Although of considerable interest, these data do not put the spotlight on the marginal seats, the constituencies targeted by the parties for intensive canvassing; these are where the contest for a majority in the House of Commons is won and lost. There have been some polls covering those constituencies as a whole, but very few of individual constituencies so there was very little reporting of the outcome for each party in those individual constituencies. That changed with the 2017 general election, when three analysts published estimates on the Internet of each party’s vote share separately for each constituency and with those data predicted which party would win each seat. This paper explores the veracity of those estimates, finding that although in general terms they accurately represented the relative position of each constituency in the share of each party...

Research paper thumbnail of Spatial scale and the geographical polarization of the American electorate

Political Geography, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of Better to stay or go? A longitudinal study of mobility over the educational life course

International Journal of Population Data Science, 2018

BackgroundThere has been substantial discussion in the literature about where you grow up and if ... more BackgroundThere has been substantial discussion in the literature about where you grow up and if whether or not you experience social and spatial mobility during childhood has substantial bearing upon later life achievement (Pribesh and Downey, 1999; Gasper et al, 2010; Sharkey and Elwert, 2011). ObjectivesThis paper utilises data from the National Pupil Database (NPD) and a quantitative framework to explore the impact of residential mobility on educational outcomes. Many previous studies of neighbourhood mobility have used point in time measures when studying inequality, which means that an individual’s neighbourhood trajectory is overlooked. Data/MethodsWe follow a single cohort of pupils’ over an eleven year time period to analyse their mobility along with their individual characteristics to provide a clear understanding of who is moving and the impact this has on them in terms of educational attainment. We also use the index of multiple deprivation as a measure of neighbourhood ...

Research paper thumbnail of Human capital, family structure and religiosity shaping British Muslim women’s labour market participation

Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Are Australia’s suburbs swamped by Asians and Muslims? Countering political claims with data

Australian Geographer, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of The segregation of generations: ancestral groups in Sydney, 2011

Geographical Research, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Residential mobility

Progress in Human Geography, 2016

Research into health disparities has long recognized the importance of residential mobility as a ... more Research into health disparities has long recognized the importance of residential mobility as a crucial factor in determining health outcomes. However, a lack of connectivity between the health and mobility literatures has led to a stagnation of theory and application on the health side, which lacks the detail and temporal perspectives now seen as critical to understanding residential mobility decisions. Through a critical re-think of mobility processes with respect to health outcomes and an exploitation of longitudinal analytical techniques, we argue that health geographers have the potential to better understand and identify the relationship that residential mobility has with health.

Research paper thumbnail of The Growing Spatial Polarization of Presidential Voting in the United States, 1992–2012: Myth or Reality?

PS: Political Science & Politics, 2016

ABSTRACTThere has been considerable debate regarding a hypothesis that the American electorate ha... more ABSTRACTThere has been considerable debate regarding a hypothesis that the American electorate has become spatially more polarized over recent decades. Using a new method for measuring polarization, this paper evaluates that hypothesis regarding voting for the Democratic party’s presidential candidates at six elections since 1992, at three separate spatial scales. The findings are unambiguous: polarization has increased substantially across the country’s nine census divisions, across the 49 states within those divisions, and across the 3,077 counties within the states—with the most significant change at the finest of those three scales.

Research paper thumbnail of A response to Gorard

The Psychology of Education Review, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of MLwin worksheet for MCMC results with graphs in Display 10

Research paper thumbnail of Human capital, family structure and religiosity shaping British Muslim women’s labour market participation

Economic activity among Muslim women in the UK remains considerably lower and their unemployment ... more Economic activity among Muslim women in the UK remains considerably lower and their unemployment rate significantly higher than among the majority group even after controlling for qualifications and other individual characteristics. This study utilises two data sets to explore possible factors underlying these differences, such as overseas qualifications, language skills and religiosity. It reveals that while religiosity is negatively associated with labour market participation among British Christian-White women, economic activity among Muslim women are not negatively affected by high religiosity. Furthermore, family structure and the presence of dependent children were among the most important factors explaining the latter’s labour market participation, although these relationships were moderated by qualifications. More women with higher qualifications were economically active even if married and with children, although some of them experienced greater unemployment, probably due to discrimination in recruiting practices and choices and preferences on religious grounds.