David Manley - Profile on Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by David Manley

Springer eBooks, 2021

This chapter explores multi-scale estimation methods as an important future direction for segrega... more This chapter explores multi-scale estimation methods as an important future direction for segregation research in China. We explain how these recently developed methods help address many longstanding problems in traditional indexbased segregation research and open up new avenues of research on Chinese cities. We explain the conceptual framework underpinning multilevel analysis in the form of a series of propositions that capture the theoretical basis and outline why a multilevel approach to segregation is advantageous. We then illustrate how this approach can be applied to China using census data on Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province. We use the model to consider segregation of different ethnic groups and of migrants versus non-migrants. We conclude with a discussion of our findings and our thoughts on future directions for research and the implications for policy.

SSRN Electronic Journal

Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research pu... more Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but IZA takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The IZA Institute of Labor Economics is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world's largest network of economists, whose research aims to provide answers to the global labor market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between academic research, policymakers and society. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

Occupational segregation in London: A multilevel framework for modelling segregation

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

The Urban Book Series, 2021

Thischapterexploresmulti-scaleestimationmethods as an important future direction for segregation ... more Thischapterexploresmulti-scaleestimationmethods as an important future direction for segregation research in China. We explain how these recently developed methods help address many longstanding problems in traditional index-based segregation research and open up new avenues of research on Chinese cities. We explain the conceptual framework underpinning multilevel analysis in the form of a series of propositions that capture the theoretical basis and outline why a multilevel approach to segregation is advantageous. We then illustrate how this approach can be applied to China using census data on Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province. We use the model to consider segregation of different ethnic groups and of migrants versus non-migrants. We conclude with a discussion of our findings and our thoughts on future directions for research and the implications for policy.

In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantita... more In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantitative geography. In this final part, we focus on the future. We argue that quantitative geographers are most helpful when we can simplify difficult problems using our distinct domain expertise. To do this, we must clarify the theory underpinning core conceptual problems in quantitative geography. Then, we examine the social forces that are shaping the future of quantitative geography. We conclude with criteria for how quantitative geography might succeed in addressing these challenges.

The Professional Geographer, 2019

A very large literature has explored the intensity of urban residential segregation using the ind... more A very large literature has explored the intensity of urban residential segregation using the index of dissimilarity. Several recent studies have undertaken such analyses at multiple spatial scales, invariably reaching the conclusion that the finer-grained the spatial scale the greater the segregation. Such findings overstate the intensity of segregation at finer spatial scales because they fail to take into account an argument made by Duncan et al. (1961) some seventy years ago that indices derived from fine-scale analyses must necessarily incorporate those from coarser scales, with the consequence that finer-scale segregation is invariably overestimated. Moreover, most studies ignore stochastic variation that results in upward bias in the estimates of segregation. This paper demonstrates the importance of of a recently developed multilevel modelling procedure that identifies the 'true' intensity of segregation at every level in a spatial hierarchy net of its intensity at other levels, and net of stochastic variation This is illustrated by both a simulated data set and an empirical study of an English city, with the latter raising important substantive issues regarding the interpretation of segregation patterns and the processes underlying them.

Population, Space and Place, 2017

Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse, and in most cities, the share of the populati... more Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse, and in most cities, the share of the population belonging to an ethnic minority is growing. Studies analysing changing ethnic geographies often limit their analysis to changes in ethnic concentrations in neighbourhoods between 2 points in time. Such a temporally limited approach limits our understanding of pathways of ethnic neighbourhood change and of the underlying factors contributing to change. This paper analyses full trajectories of neighbourhood change in the 4 largest cities in the Netherlands between 1999 and 2013. Our modelling strategy categorises neighbourhoods based on their unique growth trajectories of the ethnic population composition, providing insight in processes of ethnic segregation and its drivers. Our main conclusion is that the ethnic composition in neighbourhoods remains relatively stable over time. We however find evidence for a slow trend towards deconcentration of ethnic minorities and increased populati...

Urban Studies, 2019

The neighbourhood in which people live reflects their social class and preferences, so studying s... more The neighbourhood in which people live reflects their social class and preferences, so studying socio-spatial mobility between neighbourhood types gives insight into the openness of spatial class structures of societies and into the ability of people to leave disadvantaged neighbourhoods. In this paper we study the extent to which people move between different types of neighbourhoods by socio-economic status in different inequality and segregation contexts in four European countries: Sweden, the Netherlands, the UK (England and Wales), and Estonia. The study is based on population registers and census data for the 2001–2011 period. For England and Wales, which has long had high levels of income inequalities and high levels of socio-economic segregation, we find that levels of mobility between neighbourhood types are low and opportunities to move to more socio-economically advantaged neighbourhoods are modest. In Estonia, which used to be one of the most equal and least segregated co...

International Journal of Market Research, 2018

Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s est... more Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s estimated national vote share. Although of considerable interest, these data do not put the spotlight on the marginal seats, the constituencies targeted by the parties for intensive canvassing; these are where the contest for a majority in the House of Commons is won and lost. There have been some polls covering those constituencies as a whole, but very few of individual constituencies so there was very little reporting of the outcome for each party in those individual constituencies. That changed with the 2017 general election, when three analysts published estimates on the Internet of each party’s vote share separately for each constituency and with those data predicted which party would win each seat. This paper explores the veracity of those estimates, finding that although in general terms they accurately represented the relative position of each constituency in the share of each party...

Political Geography, 2018

In the large literature on the growing polarization of the American electorate and its representa... more In the large literature on the growing polarization of the American electorate and its representatives relatively little attention is paid to the spatial polarization of voters for the two parties at presidential elections. Bishop argued this has increased as the result of residential location decisions: Democratic Party supporters have increasingly moved to neighborhoods where others of that persuasion are already congregated, for example. His analyses at the county scale are geographically incommensurate with that argument, however; the lacuna is filled using precinct-level data for the entire United States for the 2008, 2012 and 2016 presidential elections. Multilevel modelling shows polarization at those elections was significantly greater at the precinct than the county, state and division scales. Change over the three elections at the precinct scale was probably associated with redistricting and reduced support from the Democratic Party by some groups.

International Journal of Population Data Science, 2018

BackgroundThere has been substantial discussion in the literature about where you grow up and if ... more BackgroundThere has been substantial discussion in the literature about where you grow up and if whether or not you experience social and spatial mobility during childhood has substantial bearing upon later life achievement (Pribesh and Downey, 1999; Gasper et al, 2010; Sharkey and Elwert, 2011). ObjectivesThis paper utilises data from the National Pupil Database (NPD) and a quantitative framework to explore the impact of residential mobility on educational outcomes. Many previous studies of neighbourhood mobility have used point in time measures when studying inequality, which means that an individual’s neighbourhood trajectory is overlooked. Data/MethodsWe follow a single cohort of pupils’ over an eleven year time period to analyse their mobility along with their individual characteristics to provide a clear understanding of who is moving and the impact this has on them in terms of educational attainment. We also use the index of multiple deprivation as a measure of neighbourhood ...

Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 2017

Economic activity among Muslim-women in the UK remains considerably lower and their unemployment ... more Economic activity among Muslim-women in the UK remains considerably lower and their unemployment rate significantly higher than among the majority group even after controlling for qualifications and other individual characteristics. This study utilises two datasets to explore possible factors underlying these differences, such as overseas qualifications, language skills and religiosity. It reveals that while religiosity is negatively associated with labour market participation among British Christian-White women, economic activity among Muslim-women are not negatively affected by high religiosity. Furthermore, family structure and the presence of dependent children were among the most important factors explaining the latter's labour market participation although these relationships were moderated by qualifications. More women with higher qualifications were economically active even if married and with children although some of them experienced greater unemployment, probably due to discrimination in recruiting practices and choices and preferences on religious grounds.

Australian Geographer, 2017

Recent decades have seen substantial growth across many developed-world countries of right-wing p... more Recent decades have seen substantial growth across many developed-world countries of right-wing populist political parties whose policies oppose immigration and multiculturalism as threats to the majority way of life there. These are exemplified in Australia by Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party, which was successful at elections there at the turn of the twenty-first century and again in 2016. Part of this party's rhetoric focuses on the geography of immigrant groups in Australia's cities, with claims that their members live in ghettos. Is that factually correct? Using data from the 2011 Australian census this paper analyses the distribution of Asians and Muslims (the two groups picked out by One Nation and its leader) at four spatial scales within the country's 11 largest urban areas. It finds no evidence at all of intensive residential segregation of Muslims, and although there are concentrations of Asians-notably in Sydney and Melbourne-most residents claiming Asian ancestry live in neighbourhoods and suburbs where they form a minority (in many cases a small minority) only of the local population.

Geographical Research, 2017

Most models of immigrant minority enclave formation in cities represent their situation as relati... more Most models of immigrant minority enclave formation in cities represent their situation as relatively transient elements in urban residential mosaics. As minority group members become both economically integrated and socially-culturally assimilated into the host society, so they move away from the enclaves where they initially concentrated. Such shifts are especially likely among the second and later generations of group members, who are more likely to overcome the disadvantages experienced by many of the original settlers with regard to human capital. This paper evaluates that model using data on the residential distributions of three generations of those claiming membership of one of nineteen different ancestral groups in Sydney in 2011, at four nested spatial scales, deploying a recently developed inferential method for evaluating the intensity of residential segregation. The findings are not consistent with the model: in general, members of the second and third generations in any ancestral group are as segregated as the first generation (that is, those born outside Australia) at both regional and neighbourhood scales.

Progress in Human Geography, 2016

Research into health disparities has long recognized the importance of residential mobility as a ... more Research into health disparities has long recognized the importance of residential mobility as a crucial factor in determining health outcomes. However, a lack of connectivity between the health and mobility literatures has led to a stagnation of theory and application on the health side, which lacks the detail and temporal perspectives now seen as critical to understanding residential mobility decisions. Through a critical re-think of mobility processes with respect to health outcomes and an exploitation of longitudinal analytical techniques, we argue that health geographers have the potential to better understand and identify the relationship that residential mobility has with health.

PS: Political Science & Politics, 2016

ABSTRACTThere has been considerable debate regarding a hypothesis that the American electorate ha... more ABSTRACTThere has been considerable debate regarding a hypothesis that the American electorate has become spatially more polarized over recent decades. Using a new method for measuring polarization, this paper evaluates that hypothesis regarding voting for the Democratic party’s presidential candidates at six elections since 1992, at three separate spatial scales. The findings are unambiguous: polarization has increased substantially across the country’s nine census divisions, across the 49 states within those divisions, and across the 3,077 counties within the states—with the most significant change at the finest of those three scales.

A response to Gorard

The Psychology of Education Review, 2014

MLwin worksheet for MCMC results with graphs in Display 10

Springer eBooks, 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

Occupational segregation in London: A multilevel framework for modelling segregation

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

The Urban Book Series, 2021

The Professional Geographer, 2019

Population, Space and Place, 2017

Urban Studies, 2019

International Journal of Market Research, 2018

Political Geography, 2018

International Journal of Population Data Science, 2018

Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 2017

Australian Geographer, 2017

Geographical Research, 2017

Progress in Human Geography, 2016

PS: Political Science & Politics, 2016

A response to Gorard

The Psychology of Education Review, 2014

MLwin worksheet for MCMC results with graphs in Display 10

Human capital, family structure and religiosity shaping British Muslim women’s labour market participation

Economic activity among Muslim women in the UK remains considerably lower and their unemployment ... more Economic activity among Muslim women in the UK remains considerably lower and their unemployment rate significantly higher than among the majority group even after controlling for qualifications and other individual characteristics. This study utilises two data sets to explore possible factors underlying these differences, such as overseas qualifications, language skills and religiosity. It reveals that while religiosity is negatively associated with labour market participation among British Christian-White women, economic activity among Muslim women are not negatively affected by high religiosity. Furthermore, family structure and the presence of dependent children were among the most important factors explaining the latter’s labour market participation, although these relationships were moderated by qualifications. More women with higher qualifications were economically active even if married and with children, although some of them experienced greater unemployment, probably due to discrimination in recruiting practices and choices and preferences on religious grounds.