Foad Abd-allah | Cairo University (original) (raw)
Papers by Foad Abd-allah
Neuroepidemiology, Jan 19, 2017
The burden of stroke in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is large and increasing, challen... more The burden of stroke in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is large and increasing, challenging the already stretched health-care services. To determine the quality of existing stroke-care services in LMICs and to highlight indigenous, inexpensive, evidence-based implementable strategies being used in stroke-care. A detailed literature search was undertaken using PubMed and Google scholar from January 1966 to October 2015 using a range of search terms. Of 921 publications, 373 papers were shortlisted and 31 articles on existing stroke-services were included. We identified efficient models of ambulance transport and pre-notification. Stroke Units (SU) are available in some countries, but are relatively sparse and mostly provided by the private sector. Very few patients were thrombolysed; this could be increased with telemedicine and governmental subsidies. Adherence to secondary preventive drugs is affected by limited availability and affordability, emphasizing the importance o...
The Lancet
Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantif... more Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.
The American Journal of Emergency Medicine
Clinical and Translational Neuroscience
Background: Transcranial Doppler (TCD) is a well-established tool for cerebrovascular assessment.... more Background: Transcranial Doppler (TCD) is a well-established tool for cerebrovascular assessment. Estimating the flow velocity across the intracranial arteries helps to identify children with sickle cell anaemia who are at risk for stroke. Objective: Our aim is to correlate TCD findings with clinical condition in children with sickle cell disease (SCD) to determine the value of TCD assessment as a predictive tool for stroke in SCD and to identify any association of TCD findings with disease severity, transfusion therapy and treatment administered. Methods: Eighty-five paediatric SCD patients aged from 3 years to 18 years of both genders who were followed up at the Hematology Clinic of New Children’s Hospital at Cairo University were included in this cross-sectional observational study. All our participants underwent routine laboratory investigations and TCD assessments. Results: Oof the 85 patients, two patients (2.3%) died before completing the TCD study and eventually 83 patients ...
The Lancet. Neurology, 2018
Through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) studies, headache has eme... more Through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) studies, headache has emerged as a major global public health concern. We aimed to use data from the GBD 2016 study to provide new estimates for prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for migraine and tension-type headache and to present the methods and results in an accessible way for clinicians and researchers of headache disorders. Data were derived from population-based cross-sectional surveys on migraine and tension-type headache. Prevalence for each sex and 5-year age group interval (ie, age 5 years to ≥95 years) at different time points from 1990 and 2016 in all countries and GBD regions were estimated using a Bayesian meta-regression model. Disease burden measured in YLDs was calculated from prevalence and average time spent with headache multiplied by disability weights (a measure of the relative severity of the disabling consequence of a disease). The burden stemming from medication ...
The Lancet Neurology
Background The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting fam... more Background The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of dementia as captured by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, and highlight the most important messages for clinicians and neurologists. Methods GBD 2016 obtained data on dementia from vital registration systems, published scientific literature and surveys, and data from health-service encounters on deaths, excess mortality, prevalence, and incidence from 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016, through systematic review and additional data-seeking efforts. To correct for differences in cause of death coding across time and locations, we modelled mortality due to dementia using prevalence data and estimates of excess mortality derived from countries that were most likely to code deaths to dementia relative to prevalence. Data were analysed by standardised methods to estimate deaths, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; computed as the sum of YLLs and YLDs), and the fractions of these metrics that were attributable to four risk factors that met GBD criteria for assessment (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a diet high in sugarsweetened beverages). Findings In 2016, the global number of individuals who lived with dementia was 43•8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 37•8-51•0), increased from 20.2 million (17•4-23•5) in 1990. This increase of 117% (95% UI 114-121) contrasted with a minor increase in age-standardised prevalence of 1•7% (1•0-2•4), from 701 cases (95% UI 602-815) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 712 cases (614-828) per 100 000 population in 2016. More women than men had dementia in 2016 (27•0 million, 95% UI 23•3-31•4, vs 16.8 million, 14.4-19.6), and dementia was the fifth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 2•4 million (95% UI 2•1-2•8) deaths. Overall, 28•8 million (95% UI 24•5-34•0) DALYs were attributed to dementia; 6•4 million (95% UI 3•4-10•5) of these could be attributed to the modifiable GBD risk factors of high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages. Interpretation The global number of people living with dementia more than doubled from 1990 to 2016, mainly due to increases in population ageing and growth. Although differences in coding for causes of death and the heterogeneity in case-ascertainment methods constitute major challenges to the estimation of the burden of dementia, future analyses should improve on the methods for the correction of these biases. Until breakthroughs are made in prevention or curative treatment, dementia will constitute an increasing challenge to health-care systems worldwide. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet Neurology
Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong ... more Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. Findings Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21•0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426-458 514) to 318 400 (265 218-408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2•50 million (95% UI 2•19-2•91) in 1990 to 2•82 million (2•46-3•31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585-978 219) globally, but decreased the most (-49•1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076-533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358-221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682-178 022]) and incident cases (1•25 million [1•06-1•49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787-839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1•48 million (1•04-1•96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21•87 million (18•20-28•28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. Interpretation Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccinepreventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet Neurology
Understanding how prevalence, incidence, and mortality of motor neuron diseases change over time ... more Understanding how prevalence, incidence, and mortality of motor neuron diseases change over time and by location is crucial for understanding the causes of these disorders and for health-care planning. Our aim was to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for motor neuron diseases for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016. The motor neuron diseases included in this study were amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, spinal muscular atrophy, hereditary spastic paraplegia, primary lateral sclerosis, progressive muscular atrophy, and pseudobulbar palsy. Incidence, prevalence, and DALYs were estimated using a Bayesian meta-regression model. We analysed 14 165 site-years of vital registration cause of death data using the GBD 2016 cause of death ensemble model. The 84 risk factors quantified in GBD 2016 were tested for an association with incidence or death from motor neuron diseases. We also explored the relationship between Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility) and age-standardised DALYs of motor neuron diseases. In 2016, globally, 330 918 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 299 522-367 254) individuals had a motor neuron disease. Motor neuron diseases have caused 926 090 (881 566-961 758) DALYs and 34 325 (33 051-35 364) deaths in 2016. The worldwide all-age prevalence was 4·5 (4·1-5·0) per 100 000 people, with an increase in age-standardised prevalence of 4·5% (3·4-5·7) over the study period. The all-age incidence was 0·78 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) per 100 000 person-years. No risk factor analysed in GBD showed an association with motor neuron disease incidence. The largest age-standardised prevalence was in high SDI regions: high-income North America (16·8, 95% UI 15·8-16·9), Australasia (14·7, 13·5-16·1), and western Europe (12·9, 11·7-14·1). However, the prevalence and incidence were lower than expected based on SDI in high-income Asia Pacific. Motor neuron diseases have low prevalence and incidence, but cause severe disability with a high fatality rate. Incidence of motor neuron diseases has geographical heterogeneity, which is not explained by any risk factors quantified in GBD, suggesting other unmeasured risk factors might have a role. Between 1990 and 2016, the burden of motor neuron diseases has increased substantially. The estimates presented here, as well as future estimates based on data from a greater number of countries, will be important in the planning of services for people with motor neuron diseases worldwide. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Journal of the Neurological Sciences
Background and purpose: Acute stroke treatment has significantly improved over the years in Egypt... more Background and purpose: Acute stroke treatment has significantly improved over the years in Egypt. However, there is often notable delay in pre-hospital and in-hospital management of acute stroke patients. The delay may be largely attributed to poor stroke knowledge and awareness of the general public and this study was aimed at the evaluation of the abovementioned factors. Methods: Descriptive cross-sectional study involving 1154 participants from 4 governorates using a questionnaire in Arabic, collecting sociodemographic data, participants' risk factors, and knowledge and stroke awareness (risk factors, symptoms, prevention, treatment and prognosis, action in response to acute stroke). Data were collected during the World stroke day October 29, 2015. Results: Study participants were found to have a low level of awareness of stroke with median percent score of 35.7% and interquartile range (IQR) of 17.86. Higher income, level of education, having risk factors and knowing someone with stroke were significant predictors of a higher level of stroke awareness. Conclusion: In general, low public stroke awareness has been detected among Egyptians, and this is a call for healthcare authorities to invest in public education programmes among the Egyptian population.
International Journal of Neuroscience
This study aims to investigate the relationship between cerebrovascular reserve (CVR) capacity, a... more This study aims to investigate the relationship between cerebrovascular reserve (CVR) capacity, as measured by single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and collateral blood flow, according to a transcranial colour-coded duplex(TCCD), in patients with symptomatic total carotid occlusion (TCO). Additionally, the study aims to determine whether vascular risk factors have an effect on collateral blood flow, as well as on the CVR. Thirty-four patients with chronic TCO, diagnosed by carotid duplex scanning and confirmed by other vascular imaging modalities, who had ischaemic symptoms either as stroke or transient ischaemic attack, were subjected to clinical assessment, SPECT under dipyridamole stress, and grading of cerebral collateral blood flow using TCCD. Demographics and vascular risk factors were correlated with SPECT and TCCD findings. CVR showed a significant positive correlation with the intensity of collaterals with P value <0.001 and a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.686. Hypertension was the only predictor of poor collaterals (p value =0.049; OR =11.5 with 95% CI 1.01-131.16).Smoking was predictive of poor CVR as measured by qualitative SPECT (p value =0.02; OR =13.2 with 95% CI 1.4-120.6). Cerebral collaterals have an important role in the maintenance of CVR in patients with TCO. Preventive measures should be directed towards hypertension and smoking to preserve cerebral collateral patency and consequently improve CVR in patients with TCO.
The Lancet. Neurology, 2018
Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and ageing is increasin... more Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and ageing is increasing the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson's disease. We aimed to determine the global burden of Parkinson's disease between 1990 and 2016 to identify trends and to enable appropriate public health, medical, and scientific responses. Through a systematic analysis of epidemiological studies, we estimated global, regional, and country-specific prevalence and years of life lived with disability for Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2016. We estimated the proportion of mild, moderate, and severe Parkinson's disease on the basis of studies that used the Hoehn and Yahr scale and assigned disability weights to each level. We jointly modelled prevalence and excess mortality risk in a natural history model to derive estimates of deaths due to Parkinson's disease. Death counts were multiplied by values from the Global Burden of Disease study's standard ...
Journal of vascular and interventional neurology, 2018
Stroke ranks as the second leading cause of death and the leading cause of morbidity worldwide. L... more Stroke ranks as the second leading cause of death and the leading cause of morbidity worldwide. Large intracranial arterial stenosis (ICAS) is a major cause of stroke. This study investigated the prevalence and associated vascular risk factors of ICAS in a high-risk population in Qalyeubia Governorate, Egypt. A cross-sectional pilot survey using transcranial Doppler (TCD) was conducted at Toukh Central Hospital and Aghore El-qubra primary healthcare units in the Qalyeubia Governorate from 1 January 2016 until the end of June 2016. A total of 153 participants were included in this study. The prevalence of asymptomatic ICAS was 13.1%. Among the modifiable risk factors, cardiac diseases, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, dyslipidemia, physical inactivity, and smoking were the strongest independent predictors of ICAS. This pilot study concluded that the prevalence of asymptomatic ICAS is relatively high in Egypt, and modifiable risk factors were the strongest predisposing factors of ICAS...
JAMA cardiology, Jan 11, 2018
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional var... more Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional variation within the United States is large. Comparable and consistent state-level measures of total CVD burden and risk factors have not been produced previously. To quantify and describe levels and trends of lost health due to CVD within the United States from 1990 to 2016 as well as risk factors driving these changes. Using the Global Burden of Disease methodology, cardiovascular disease mortality, nonfatal health outcomes, and associated risk factors were analyzed by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2016 for all residents in the United States using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling. Burden of disease was estimated for 10 groupings of CVD, and comparative risk analysis was performed. Data were analyzed from August 2016 to July 2017. Residing in the United States. Cardiovascular disease disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Between 1990 and 2016, ...
The International journal of neuroscience, Jan 4, 2018
Accurate data on the epidemiology of stroke in Egypt is scarce. The aim of this review is to addr... more Accurate data on the epidemiology of stroke in Egypt is scarce. The aim of this review is to address this issue based on available community-based studies and compare the resulting findings to those of other regional and international studies. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify population-based epidemiological studies of stroke in Egyptians. Original articles published in English between 1990 and 2016 were included. Five studies from five different governorates in southern Egypt fulfilled the study criteria (Qena, Sohag, Assiut, New Valley and Red Sea). The mean and median crude prevalence rates (CPRs) across the five studies, which were conducted in southern Egypt were 721.6/100,000 and 655/100,000, respectively. The mean and median crude incidence rates (CIRs) were 187/100,000 and 180.5/100,000, respectively. The average CPR weighted by sample population size was 613/100,000 and the average CIR weighted by sample population size was 202/100,000. The incidence...
World Journal of Cardiovascular Diseases
We report a case of a young male patient suffering from congenital Anti-Thrombin III (AT III) def... more We report a case of a young male patient suffering from congenital Anti-Thrombin III (AT III) deficiency, presented with four major thrombotic events. These events were acute coronary syndrome (Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction), cerebral infarction, peripheral acute upper limb (UL) ischemia and bilateral extensive deep venous thrombosis. The latter two developed despite that the patient was receiving full anticoagulation therapy. His International normalized ratio (INR) was 2.5. Eventually, the patient developed pulmonary embolism and died. He had a prominent family history of thrombotic events. Screening for AT III deficiency in young patients with thrombotic event (thrombophilia) is essential especially those having family history of the latter. This is justified as thrombotic events may occur in up to 80% of these patients. Our patient with 4 major thrombotic events ending in fatality in less than 1 month deserves the nomenclature.
The Lancet. Neurology, Nov 15, 2017
Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their tre... more Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson&#...
Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Jan 15, 2017
The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. The GB... more The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% unc...
Neuroepidemiology, Jan 19, 2017
The burden of stroke in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is large and increasing, challen... more The burden of stroke in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is large and increasing, challenging the already stretched health-care services. To determine the quality of existing stroke-care services in LMICs and to highlight indigenous, inexpensive, evidence-based implementable strategies being used in stroke-care. A detailed literature search was undertaken using PubMed and Google scholar from January 1966 to October 2015 using a range of search terms. Of 921 publications, 373 papers were shortlisted and 31 articles on existing stroke-services were included. We identified efficient models of ambulance transport and pre-notification. Stroke Units (SU) are available in some countries, but are relatively sparse and mostly provided by the private sector. Very few patients were thrombolysed; this could be increased with telemedicine and governmental subsidies. Adherence to secondary preventive drugs is affected by limited availability and affordability, emphasizing the importance o...
The Lancet
Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantif... more Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.
The American Journal of Emergency Medicine
Clinical and Translational Neuroscience
Background: Transcranial Doppler (TCD) is a well-established tool for cerebrovascular assessment.... more Background: Transcranial Doppler (TCD) is a well-established tool for cerebrovascular assessment. Estimating the flow velocity across the intracranial arteries helps to identify children with sickle cell anaemia who are at risk for stroke. Objective: Our aim is to correlate TCD findings with clinical condition in children with sickle cell disease (SCD) to determine the value of TCD assessment as a predictive tool for stroke in SCD and to identify any association of TCD findings with disease severity, transfusion therapy and treatment administered. Methods: Eighty-five paediatric SCD patients aged from 3 years to 18 years of both genders who were followed up at the Hematology Clinic of New Children’s Hospital at Cairo University were included in this cross-sectional observational study. All our participants underwent routine laboratory investigations and TCD assessments. Results: Oof the 85 patients, two patients (2.3%) died before completing the TCD study and eventually 83 patients ...
The Lancet. Neurology, 2018
Through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) studies, headache has eme... more Through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) studies, headache has emerged as a major global public health concern. We aimed to use data from the GBD 2016 study to provide new estimates for prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for migraine and tension-type headache and to present the methods and results in an accessible way for clinicians and researchers of headache disorders. Data were derived from population-based cross-sectional surveys on migraine and tension-type headache. Prevalence for each sex and 5-year age group interval (ie, age 5 years to ≥95 years) at different time points from 1990 and 2016 in all countries and GBD regions were estimated using a Bayesian meta-regression model. Disease burden measured in YLDs was calculated from prevalence and average time spent with headache multiplied by disability weights (a measure of the relative severity of the disabling consequence of a disease). The burden stemming from medication ...
The Lancet Neurology
Background The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting fam... more Background The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of dementia as captured by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, and highlight the most important messages for clinicians and neurologists. Methods GBD 2016 obtained data on dementia from vital registration systems, published scientific literature and surveys, and data from health-service encounters on deaths, excess mortality, prevalence, and incidence from 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016, through systematic review and additional data-seeking efforts. To correct for differences in cause of death coding across time and locations, we modelled mortality due to dementia using prevalence data and estimates of excess mortality derived from countries that were most likely to code deaths to dementia relative to prevalence. Data were analysed by standardised methods to estimate deaths, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; computed as the sum of YLLs and YLDs), and the fractions of these metrics that were attributable to four risk factors that met GBD criteria for assessment (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a diet high in sugarsweetened beverages). Findings In 2016, the global number of individuals who lived with dementia was 43•8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 37•8-51•0), increased from 20.2 million (17•4-23•5) in 1990. This increase of 117% (95% UI 114-121) contrasted with a minor increase in age-standardised prevalence of 1•7% (1•0-2•4), from 701 cases (95% UI 602-815) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 712 cases (614-828) per 100 000 population in 2016. More women than men had dementia in 2016 (27•0 million, 95% UI 23•3-31•4, vs 16.8 million, 14.4-19.6), and dementia was the fifth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 2•4 million (95% UI 2•1-2•8) deaths. Overall, 28•8 million (95% UI 24•5-34•0) DALYs were attributed to dementia; 6•4 million (95% UI 3•4-10•5) of these could be attributed to the modifiable GBD risk factors of high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages. Interpretation The global number of people living with dementia more than doubled from 1990 to 2016, mainly due to increases in population ageing and growth. Although differences in coding for causes of death and the heterogeneity in case-ascertainment methods constitute major challenges to the estimation of the burden of dementia, future analyses should improve on the methods for the correction of these biases. Until breakthroughs are made in prevention or curative treatment, dementia will constitute an increasing challenge to health-care systems worldwide. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet Neurology
Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong ... more Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. Findings Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21•0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426-458 514) to 318 400 (265 218-408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2•50 million (95% UI 2•19-2•91) in 1990 to 2•82 million (2•46-3•31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585-978 219) globally, but decreased the most (-49•1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076-533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358-221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682-178 022]) and incident cases (1•25 million [1•06-1•49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787-839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1•48 million (1•04-1•96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21•87 million (18•20-28•28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. Interpretation Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccinepreventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet Neurology
Understanding how prevalence, incidence, and mortality of motor neuron diseases change over time ... more Understanding how prevalence, incidence, and mortality of motor neuron diseases change over time and by location is crucial for understanding the causes of these disorders and for health-care planning. Our aim was to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for motor neuron diseases for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016. The motor neuron diseases included in this study were amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, spinal muscular atrophy, hereditary spastic paraplegia, primary lateral sclerosis, progressive muscular atrophy, and pseudobulbar palsy. Incidence, prevalence, and DALYs were estimated using a Bayesian meta-regression model. We analysed 14 165 site-years of vital registration cause of death data using the GBD 2016 cause of death ensemble model. The 84 risk factors quantified in GBD 2016 were tested for an association with incidence or death from motor neuron diseases. We also explored the relationship between Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility) and age-standardised DALYs of motor neuron diseases. In 2016, globally, 330 918 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 299 522-367 254) individuals had a motor neuron disease. Motor neuron diseases have caused 926 090 (881 566-961 758) DALYs and 34 325 (33 051-35 364) deaths in 2016. The worldwide all-age prevalence was 4·5 (4·1-5·0) per 100 000 people, with an increase in age-standardised prevalence of 4·5% (3·4-5·7) over the study period. The all-age incidence was 0·78 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) per 100 000 person-years. No risk factor analysed in GBD showed an association with motor neuron disease incidence. The largest age-standardised prevalence was in high SDI regions: high-income North America (16·8, 95% UI 15·8-16·9), Australasia (14·7, 13·5-16·1), and western Europe (12·9, 11·7-14·1). However, the prevalence and incidence were lower than expected based on SDI in high-income Asia Pacific. Motor neuron diseases have low prevalence and incidence, but cause severe disability with a high fatality rate. Incidence of motor neuron diseases has geographical heterogeneity, which is not explained by any risk factors quantified in GBD, suggesting other unmeasured risk factors might have a role. Between 1990 and 2016, the burden of motor neuron diseases has increased substantially. The estimates presented here, as well as future estimates based on data from a greater number of countries, will be important in the planning of services for people with motor neuron diseases worldwide. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Journal of the Neurological Sciences
Background and purpose: Acute stroke treatment has significantly improved over the years in Egypt... more Background and purpose: Acute stroke treatment has significantly improved over the years in Egypt. However, there is often notable delay in pre-hospital and in-hospital management of acute stroke patients. The delay may be largely attributed to poor stroke knowledge and awareness of the general public and this study was aimed at the evaluation of the abovementioned factors. Methods: Descriptive cross-sectional study involving 1154 participants from 4 governorates using a questionnaire in Arabic, collecting sociodemographic data, participants' risk factors, and knowledge and stroke awareness (risk factors, symptoms, prevention, treatment and prognosis, action in response to acute stroke). Data were collected during the World stroke day October 29, 2015. Results: Study participants were found to have a low level of awareness of stroke with median percent score of 35.7% and interquartile range (IQR) of 17.86. Higher income, level of education, having risk factors and knowing someone with stroke were significant predictors of a higher level of stroke awareness. Conclusion: In general, low public stroke awareness has been detected among Egyptians, and this is a call for healthcare authorities to invest in public education programmes among the Egyptian population.
International Journal of Neuroscience
This study aims to investigate the relationship between cerebrovascular reserve (CVR) capacity, a... more This study aims to investigate the relationship between cerebrovascular reserve (CVR) capacity, as measured by single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and collateral blood flow, according to a transcranial colour-coded duplex(TCCD), in patients with symptomatic total carotid occlusion (TCO). Additionally, the study aims to determine whether vascular risk factors have an effect on collateral blood flow, as well as on the CVR. Thirty-four patients with chronic TCO, diagnosed by carotid duplex scanning and confirmed by other vascular imaging modalities, who had ischaemic symptoms either as stroke or transient ischaemic attack, were subjected to clinical assessment, SPECT under dipyridamole stress, and grading of cerebral collateral blood flow using TCCD. Demographics and vascular risk factors were correlated with SPECT and TCCD findings. CVR showed a significant positive correlation with the intensity of collaterals with P value <0.001 and a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.686. Hypertension was the only predictor of poor collaterals (p value =0.049; OR =11.5 with 95% CI 1.01-131.16).Smoking was predictive of poor CVR as measured by qualitative SPECT (p value =0.02; OR =13.2 with 95% CI 1.4-120.6). Cerebral collaterals have an important role in the maintenance of CVR in patients with TCO. Preventive measures should be directed towards hypertension and smoking to preserve cerebral collateral patency and consequently improve CVR in patients with TCO.
The Lancet. Neurology, 2018
Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and ageing is increasin... more Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and ageing is increasing the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson's disease. We aimed to determine the global burden of Parkinson's disease between 1990 and 2016 to identify trends and to enable appropriate public health, medical, and scientific responses. Through a systematic analysis of epidemiological studies, we estimated global, regional, and country-specific prevalence and years of life lived with disability for Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2016. We estimated the proportion of mild, moderate, and severe Parkinson's disease on the basis of studies that used the Hoehn and Yahr scale and assigned disability weights to each level. We jointly modelled prevalence and excess mortality risk in a natural history model to derive estimates of deaths due to Parkinson's disease. Death counts were multiplied by values from the Global Burden of Disease study's standard ...
Journal of vascular and interventional neurology, 2018
Stroke ranks as the second leading cause of death and the leading cause of morbidity worldwide. L... more Stroke ranks as the second leading cause of death and the leading cause of morbidity worldwide. Large intracranial arterial stenosis (ICAS) is a major cause of stroke. This study investigated the prevalence and associated vascular risk factors of ICAS in a high-risk population in Qalyeubia Governorate, Egypt. A cross-sectional pilot survey using transcranial Doppler (TCD) was conducted at Toukh Central Hospital and Aghore El-qubra primary healthcare units in the Qalyeubia Governorate from 1 January 2016 until the end of June 2016. A total of 153 participants were included in this study. The prevalence of asymptomatic ICAS was 13.1%. Among the modifiable risk factors, cardiac diseases, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, dyslipidemia, physical inactivity, and smoking were the strongest independent predictors of ICAS. This pilot study concluded that the prevalence of asymptomatic ICAS is relatively high in Egypt, and modifiable risk factors were the strongest predisposing factors of ICAS...
JAMA cardiology, Jan 11, 2018
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional var... more Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional variation within the United States is large. Comparable and consistent state-level measures of total CVD burden and risk factors have not been produced previously. To quantify and describe levels and trends of lost health due to CVD within the United States from 1990 to 2016 as well as risk factors driving these changes. Using the Global Burden of Disease methodology, cardiovascular disease mortality, nonfatal health outcomes, and associated risk factors were analyzed by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2016 for all residents in the United States using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling. Burden of disease was estimated for 10 groupings of CVD, and comparative risk analysis was performed. Data were analyzed from August 2016 to July 2017. Residing in the United States. Cardiovascular disease disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Between 1990 and 2016, ...
The International journal of neuroscience, Jan 4, 2018
Accurate data on the epidemiology of stroke in Egypt is scarce. The aim of this review is to addr... more Accurate data on the epidemiology of stroke in Egypt is scarce. The aim of this review is to address this issue based on available community-based studies and compare the resulting findings to those of other regional and international studies. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify population-based epidemiological studies of stroke in Egyptians. Original articles published in English between 1990 and 2016 were included. Five studies from five different governorates in southern Egypt fulfilled the study criteria (Qena, Sohag, Assiut, New Valley and Red Sea). The mean and median crude prevalence rates (CPRs) across the five studies, which were conducted in southern Egypt were 721.6/100,000 and 655/100,000, respectively. The mean and median crude incidence rates (CIRs) were 187/100,000 and 180.5/100,000, respectively. The average CPR weighted by sample population size was 613/100,000 and the average CIR weighted by sample population size was 202/100,000. The incidence...
World Journal of Cardiovascular Diseases
We report a case of a young male patient suffering from congenital Anti-Thrombin III (AT III) def... more We report a case of a young male patient suffering from congenital Anti-Thrombin III (AT III) deficiency, presented with four major thrombotic events. These events were acute coronary syndrome (Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction), cerebral infarction, peripheral acute upper limb (UL) ischemia and bilateral extensive deep venous thrombosis. The latter two developed despite that the patient was receiving full anticoagulation therapy. His International normalized ratio (INR) was 2.5. Eventually, the patient developed pulmonary embolism and died. He had a prominent family history of thrombotic events. Screening for AT III deficiency in young patients with thrombotic event (thrombophilia) is essential especially those having family history of the latter. This is justified as thrombotic events may occur in up to 80% of these patients. Our patient with 4 major thrombotic events ending in fatality in less than 1 month deserves the nomenclature.
The Lancet. Neurology, Nov 15, 2017
Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their tre... more Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson&#...
Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Jan 15, 2017
The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. The GB... more The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% unc...