Safaa A. Ghoneim | Cairo University (original) (raw)

Papers by Safaa A. Ghoneim

Urban Climate

Several cities are exceptionally vulnerable to flood impacts due to increasing urbanization, popu... more Several cities are exceptionally vulnerable to flood impacts due to increasing urbanization, population growth, and climate change. Quantifying flood vulnerability is useful for identifying the system’s weakness, monitoring its evolution, and supporting targeted flood risk adaptation policies. One of the vital aims of assessing urban flood vulnerability is to create an understandable link between flood vulnerability conceptual theories and the daily decision-making process through an easily accessible tool. Although several studies have described the development of an integrated flood vulnerability index (FVI) combining physical, social, and economic dimensions in urban areas, this index has not been assessed in developing countries. Therefore, this study focuses on an integrated indicator-based approach to develop an urban FVI based on exposure, susceptibility, and resilience to urban flooding at the neighbourhood scale. To evaluate the flood vulnerability of the population, we used the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe (MOVE) framework. Accordingly, the vulnerability indices cover exposure, susceptibility and resilience aspects. The index is applied to Alexandria, one of the most important coastal cities of Egypt, which is highly vulnerable due to its dense population, low adaptive capacity, flat topography, and exposure to various water-related disasters, such as cyclones, storm surges, bank erosion, sea-level rise, tidal floods, and frequent urban floods. In this study, we use inductive principal component analysis (PCA) to develop a composite indicator for the FVI and to evaluate the vulnerability of 101 census administrative units (sheyakhahs) in Alexandria. We apply the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) test and Bartlett’s test of sphericity to assess sample adequacy and perform data standardization for all indicators. Furthermore, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted for simplicity and comparison with the PCA results to assess their robustness. We clustered 58 and 13 flood vulnerability-related indicators into three major dimensions, i.e., physical, social, and economic, through PCA and the AHP, respectively. Official collected data are analysed using combined methods using advanced statistical analysis (SPSS) software and a geographic information system (GIS). The findings highlight the variability in flood vulnerability across highly urbanized and suburban areas. Based on the PCA, 38 indicators were defined as the most comprehensive flood vulnerability assessment (FVA) used in Egyptian cities. Additionally, due to reliability of the approach to indicator selection and the weighting process, the chosen 13 indicators for the AHP analysis yielded similar results. This research provides spatial planners and decision-makers with an integrated, comprehensive, and unified urban FVI to assess vulnerability and, thus, improve flood resilience in Egypt and countries in similar situations.

Journal of geology & geosciences, Jul 16, 2015

Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2020

Climate change and its association with sea level rise 'SLR' have become a true fact that increas... more Climate change and its association with sea level rise 'SLR' have become a true fact that increasingly challenge coastal zones all over the world. This study attempts to fill the lack of studies and assessments of the African coasts through developing a SLR vulnerability assessment. The study has customized coastal vulnerability index 'CVI' to include seventeen parameters grouping in the vulnerability's pillars: exposure, sensitivity, and resilience. The selected variables represent the main coastal characteristics physically and socioeconomically. The study applies CVI method for the African coastal zone using GIS and remote sensing. However, the study has followed the case study approach on the continental level of Africa, and the results have classified coastal areas into different degrees of vulnerabilities. Application of CEI equation showed that about 40% of African coast are ranging from moderate to very high exposure, as for the CSI equation showed that 75% of African coast are ranging from moderate to very high sensitivity, as for the CRI equation showed that 55% of African coast are ranging from moderate to very high resilience, and as for the CVI equation showed that 35% of the 26,000 km length of Africa's coasts are vulnerable to SLR. It has been approved that deltas are the most vulnerable areas along the African coasts. Also, values of CVI pillars for each of these deltas showed great variation, which accordingly could give an indicator for adaptation and mitigation strategies of Africa's coasts at regional and national levels, which could be one strategy or more: protection, accommodation, and retreat strategies. Keywords Sea level rise (SLR) • Coastal vulnerability index (CVI) • African coasts • Vulnerability pillars • African river deltas

Urban Climate, 2023

Several cities are exceptionally vulnerable to flood impacts due to increasing urbanization, popu... more Several cities are exceptionally vulnerable to flood impacts due to increasing urbanization, population growth, and climate change. Quantifying flood vulnerability is useful for identifying the system’s weakness, monitoring its evolution, and supporting targeted flood risk adaptation policies. One of the vital aims of assessing urban flood vulnerability is to create an understandable link between flood vulnerability conceptual theories and the daily decision-making process through an easily accessible tool. Although several studies have described the development of an integrated flood vulnerability index (FVI) combining physical, social, and economic dimensions in urban areas, this index has not been assessed in developing countries. Therefore, this study
focuses on an integrated indicator-based approach to develop an urban FVI based on exposure, susceptibility, and resilience to urban flooding at the neighbourhood scale. To evaluate the flood vulnerability of the population, we used the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe (MOVE) framework. Accordingly, the vulnerability indices cover exposure, susceptibility and resilience aspects. The index is applied to Alexandria, one of the most important coastal cities of Egypt, which is highly vulnerable due to its dense population, low adaptive capacity, flat
topography, and exposure to various water-related disasters, such as cyclones, storm surges, bank erosion, sea-level rise, tidal floods, and frequent urban floods. In this study, we use inductive principal component analysis (PCA) to develop a composite indicator for the FVI and to evaluate the vulnerability of 101 census administrative units (sheyakhahs) in Alexandria. We apply the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) test and Bartlett’s test of sphericity to assess sample adequacy and perform data standardization for all indicators. Furthermore, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted for simplicity and comparison with the PCA results to assess their robustness. We clustered 58 and 13 flood vulnerability-related indicators into three major dimensions, i.e.,
physical, social, and economic, through PCA and the AHP, respectively. Official collected data are analysed using combined methods using advanced statistical analysis (SPSS) software and a geographic information system (GIS). The findings highlight the variability in flood vulnerability across highly urbanized and suburban areas. Based on the PCA, 38 indicators were defined as the most comprehensive flood vulnerability assessment (FVA) used in Egyptian cities. Additionally, due to reliability of the approach to indicator selection and the weighting process, the chosen 13 indicators for the AHP analysis yielded similar results. This research provides spatial planners and decision-makers with an integrated, comprehensive, and unified urban FVI to assess vulnerability and, thus, improve flood resilience in Egypt and countries in similar situations.

Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2020

Civil Engineering and Architecture

The increasing severity of climate changes and environmental risks led to the paradigm shift in u... more The increasing severity of climate changes and environmental risks led to the paradigm shift in urban planning towards increasing the resilience of cities. However, coastal cities are on the frontline facing these risks and challenges. The local context in developing countries is adding more pressure on city resilience. In Egypt, the Red Sea cities are increasingly exposed to flash floods, and storms under the uncertainties of environmental risks. They have special local environmental, social, cultural, and economic characteristics. This research aims to develop a customized community resiliency assessment tool, which considers the local context of Egyptian coastal cities. The literature shows that more than 30 tools and frameworks to assess resilience have been developed. However, this paper argues that indicator-based tools of assessment should be tailored to reflect the local context. From here, available tools from different perspectives and their associated indicators were reviewed and filtered according to the Egyptian context and national data drivers. Then the special environmental, social, cultural, and economic features of the study area "Red Sea" were highlighted as a reference to the next step of indicator selection. The appropriate criteria were developed and tested using data of Red Sea cities (i.e. Ras-Gharib, Hurghada, Safaga, El-Qusair, Marsa-Alam, Halaib and Shalateen). The case studies application and assessments included analyses of environmental parameters, and statistical analyses of social, and economic parameters. It showed high applicability and produced a resilience index of the coastal cities of the red sea region.

Civil Engineering and Architecture

Journal of Egyptian Academic Society for Environmental Development. D, Environmental Studies

Slum or informal areas continue to be among the major challenges of urbanization, especially in t... more Slum or informal areas continue to be among the major challenges of urbanization, especially in the major cities. They are facing the most devastating impacts of local and global challenges, including climate change. This gives a high priority to upgrading projects in these areas. However, a special concern should be given to the environmental and social impacts of these areas and the required upgrading projects to achieve sustainability in the short-term and long-term. This research paper aims to extract the common environmental and social issues in four informal areas in great Cairo and identify the required upgrading projects in these sites. It relies on 31 EIA studies of upgrading projects in four slum areas within the Cairo metropolis the researcher share in their preparation; Izbit Khayrallah, Al Zawya Al-Hamraa, Ard Al-Lewa and Mît Uqba. The comparative analyses were used to highlight EIA outcomes and their added values that could support the sustainability in these areas and in similar projects of other slums in Egypt. Site visits and interviews with stakeholders and local people were accomplished, during the construction phase of these projects, to investigate the acceptance of mitigation measures. Finally, guidelines and learned lessons were extracted in order to enhance the whole EIA procedure within a similar context.

Civil Engineering and Architecture

The fact that Egypt falls within the arid and semi-arid areas, makes it always vulnerable to sudd... more The fact that Egypt falls within the arid and semi-arid areas, makes it always vulnerable to sudden storms, which have increased significantly during the past ten years. Climate change is one of the factors that cause the increasing of the sudden storms frequency, intensity and expansion to cover new areas. During three days, from November 11 to 13, 2021, a severe storm hit the city of Aswan and its suburbs, leaving behind extensive property damage and loss of life. Where heavy rains, fell in a short time, on the Eastern Desert Mountains led to torrential rains (flash flood) that flowed to the plains through the paths of the valleys, causing severe damage to several villages, which are located in the hydrologically active valleys (Al-Heita, Al-Kimab, Umm Buirat and Abu Al-Rish Qebli). In this paper, the November 2021 storm will be analyzed using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data, with temporal and special resolution of 30 minutes and 0.1° respectively. The data will give a distribution of the storm for each 1 hour during the storm for three days. The amount of water and its velocity will also be simulated using the (HEC-HMS) hydrological model. In addition, the (HEC-RAC) model is used in order to simulate the distribution and expansion of the flood during the storm time step. The results provide an actual simulation of what happened during the 2021 storm. In addition, this model is applied again with the highest values to produce the worst scenario. The final part of this paper highlights the value of this model as a supportive tool for urban planning to achieve sustainability. So, both results of the simulation and the worst scenario were compared to the development plan of the study area. Then, the suitable planning recommendations were accordingly suggested for the areas at risk to ensure sustainable future development.

African Journal of Biological Sciences

All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you... more All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately.

Coastal Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world (Ruffolo, 2002; Larson, 20... more Coastal Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world (Ruffolo, 2002; Larson, 2009; Ramsar convention 1990). Also, they can be considered the kidney of the earth, for their role of filtering wastes and pollutants, as well as "nature's supermarket" for their ability to provide sources of food and materials (Mitsch and Gosselink, 2000). Moreover, they can be considered the first defence line against some effects of climate change such as sea level rise. On the other hand; Coastal Wetlands are facing serious increased challenges from both sea and land sides; the global warming and the accelerated sea level rise and erosion rates are among the most natural causes of coastal wetlands area loss, currently and in the future (Nicholls et al, 1999). The huge losses and deteriorations of this unique ecosystem on one hand and the rich and wide variety of development potentials on the other hand are requiring a special framework for planning and management to make the balance between objectives of preservation and development in order to reach sustainable development. The EA "Ecosystem Approach" is the most internationally recommended to meet sustainable development especially in such sensitive ecosystems, as it has been recommended by several international organizations such as: CBD, IUCN, UNDP, UNEP, GEF, and Ramsar international convention for wetlands. However EA is still in its initial generic stage, there is a need for developing it into a methodological framework to be applied in such sensitive areas (UNFCCC, 2009; MedWetCoast, 2005). This paper introduce the EAPM-CW "Ecosystem Approach Methodological Framework For Planning And Management In Coastal Wetlands", which has been developed as a main part of a PhD research and tested on the Egyptian case using different techniques of scientific research, including interviews and focus groups (Author,2012). However the EAPM-CW integrated the Ecosystem Services Assessment as the main decision support tool, the GIS and Remote Sensing techniques were integrated to support more accurate results. the theoretical evaluation and practical case study test have shown high capabilities of EAPM-CW for wider applications sensitive ecosystems.

International Journal of Marine Science, 2013

In the last two decades, integration and collaboration have become common themes in coastal manag... more In the last two decades, integration and collaboration have become common themes in coastal management. They are advocated for their holistic approach that considers management outcomes rather than narrow jurisdictions of individual issues. Being more specific; Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is a complex process with various issues to be covered and requiring a network of agencies and policies to be integrated. Furthermore, ICZM as a tool of effective planning and management encompasses different dimensions. Simultaneously, the integration should be territorial (comprising a delimited space), and temporal (long-term oriented), as well as being horizontal (cross-sectoral) and vertical (involving various administrative bodies) Hence, Multi-dimensional integration is essential for ICZM to succeed. However, achieving effective integration in coastal management is always difficult, especially in developing countries. Egypt provides an excellent case study of this experience. Since the mid-1990s several attempts have been made to promote ICZM in Egypt, although none have, as yet, achieved their goal of having an ICZM plan in operation. This paper reviews ICZM process in Egypt focussing on discussing the integration between all actors to plan and implement ICZM based on interviews with key ICZM actors as well as documentary analysis and participant observation in ICZM meetings. It seeks through a critical evaluation to provide recommendations that could help to enhance the implementation of ICZM in Egypt and other developing countries.

A Customized Indicator-Based Tool to Assess Resiliency of Egyptian Coastal Cities: Case Study of Red Sea Cities, 2022

The increasing severity of climate changes and environmental risks led to the paradigm shift in u... more The increasing severity of climate changes and environmental risks led to the paradigm shift in urban planning towards increasing the resilience of cities. However, coastal cities are on the frontline facing these risks and challenges. The local context in developing countries is adding more pressure on city resilience. In Egypt, the Red Sea cities are increasingly exposed to flash floods, and storms under the uncertainties of environmental risks. They have special local environmental, social, cultural, and economic characteristics. This research aims to develop a customized community resiliency assessment tool, which considers the local context of Egyptian coastal cities. The literature shows that more than 30 tools and frameworks to assess resilience have been developed. However, this paper argues that indicator-based tools of assessment should be tailored to reflect the local context. From here, available tools from different perspectives and their associated indicators were reviewed and filtered according to the Egyptian context and national data drivers. Then the special environmental, social, cultural, and economic features of the study area “Red Sea” were highlighted as a reference to the next step of indicator selection. The appropriate criteria were developed and tested using data of Red Sea cities (i.e. Ras-Gharib, Hurghada, Safaga, El-Qusair, Marsa-Alam, Halaib and Shalateen). The case studies application and assessments included analyses of environmental parameters, and statistical analyses of social, and economic parameters. It showed high applicability and produced a resilience index of the coastal cities of the red sea region.

Urban Climate

Journal of geology & geosciences, Jul 16, 2015

Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2020

Urban Climate, 2023

Several cities are exceptionally vulnerable to flood impacts due to increasing urbanization, popu... more Several cities are exceptionally vulnerable to flood impacts due to increasing urbanization, population growth, and climate change. Quantifying flood vulnerability is useful for identifying the system’s weakness, monitoring its evolution, and supporting targeted flood risk adaptation policies. One of the vital aims of assessing urban flood vulnerability is to create an understandable link between flood vulnerability conceptual theories and the daily decision-making process through an easily accessible tool. Although several studies have described the development of an integrated flood vulnerability index (FVI) combining physical, social, and economic dimensions in urban areas, this index has not been assessed in developing countries. Therefore, this study
focuses on an integrated indicator-based approach to develop an urban FVI based on exposure, susceptibility, and resilience to urban flooding at the neighbourhood scale. To evaluate the flood vulnerability of the population, we used the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe (MOVE) framework. Accordingly, the vulnerability indices cover exposure, susceptibility and resilience aspects. The index is applied to Alexandria, one of the most important coastal cities of Egypt, which is highly vulnerable due to its dense population, low adaptive capacity, flat
topography, and exposure to various water-related disasters, such as cyclones, storm surges, bank erosion, sea-level rise, tidal floods, and frequent urban floods. In this study, we use inductive principal component analysis (PCA) to develop a composite indicator for the FVI and to evaluate the vulnerability of 101 census administrative units (sheyakhahs) in Alexandria. We apply the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) test and Bartlett’s test of sphericity to assess sample adequacy and perform data standardization for all indicators. Furthermore, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted for simplicity and comparison with the PCA results to assess their robustness. We clustered 58 and 13 flood vulnerability-related indicators into three major dimensions, i.e.,
physical, social, and economic, through PCA and the AHP, respectively. Official collected data are analysed using combined methods using advanced statistical analysis (SPSS) software and a geographic information system (GIS). The findings highlight the variability in flood vulnerability across highly urbanized and suburban areas. Based on the PCA, 38 indicators were defined as the most comprehensive flood vulnerability assessment (FVA) used in Egyptian cities. Additionally, due to reliability of the approach to indicator selection and the weighting process, the chosen 13 indicators for the AHP analysis yielded similar results. This research provides spatial planners and decision-makers with an integrated, comprehensive, and unified urban FVI to assess vulnerability and, thus, improve flood resilience in Egypt and countries in similar situations.

Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2020

Civil Engineering and Architecture

Journal of Egyptian Academic Society for Environmental Development. D, Environmental Studies

Civil Engineering and Architecture

African Journal of Biological Sciences

International Journal of Marine Science, 2013

A Customized Indicator-Based Tool to Assess Resiliency of Egyptian Coastal Cities: Case Study of Red Sea Cities, 2022

The increasing severity of climate changes and environmental risks led to the paradigm shift in u... more The increasing severity of climate changes and environmental risks led to the paradigm shift in urban planning towards increasing the resilience of cities. However, coastal cities are on the frontline facing these risks and challenges. The local context in developing countries is adding more pressure on city resilience. In Egypt, the Red Sea cities are increasingly exposed to flash floods, and storms under the uncertainties of environmental risks. They have special local environmental, social, cultural, and economic characteristics. This research aims to develop a customized community resiliency assessment tool, which considers the local context of Egyptian coastal cities. The literature shows that more than 30 tools and frameworks to assess resilience have been developed. However, this paper argues that indicator-based tools of assessment should be tailored to reflect the local context. From here, available tools from different perspectives and their associated indicators were reviewed and filtered according to the Egyptian context and national data drivers. Then the special environmental, social, cultural, and economic features of the study area “Red Sea” were highlighted as a reference to the next step of indicator selection. The appropriate criteria were developed and tested using data of Red Sea cities (i.e. Ras-Gharib, Hurghada, Safaga, El-Qusair, Marsa-Alam, Halaib and Shalateen). The case studies application and assessments included analyses of environmental parameters, and statistical analyses of social, and economic parameters. It showed high applicability and produced a resilience index of the coastal cities of the red sea region.