Scott Kelly | University of Cambridge (original) (raw)

Papers by Scott Kelly

It has been argued the UK has experienced significant underinvestment in critical infrastructure ... more It has been argued the UK has experienced significant underinvestment in critical infrastructure over the last two decades. This in turn has resulted in infrastructure that is less capable of assisting the UK economy to grow. This article seeks to undertake an in-depth analysis of the inter-linkages and economic contributions from infrastructure within the UK. It explores the relationship between nine infrastructure sectors and how these sectors contribute to the rest of the UK economy using keylinkage analysis. Each infrastructure sector is shown to be unique in the way it interacts with other economic sectors and in the form of contribution it makes to the economy overall. Infrastructure is found to be a necessary and important part of economic development. The analysis finds that over the last 23 years there has been a decline in the relative economic contribution from infrastructure to UK GVA. Only two infrastructure sectors increased their relative contribution to GVA since 1992. These were the water transport sector and sewerage and sanitary services sector. Railway transport and gas distribution have had the largest relative decline in contribution towards UK GVA with relative contributions decreasing by over 50 % since 1992. The three most important infrastructure sectors contributing to UK GDP are land transport, electricity production and distribution and telecommunications respectively.

Infrastructure failure can cause significant disruption of economic activity. The size of economi... more Infrastructure failure can cause significant disruption of economic activity. The size of economic loss is a direct function of the interdependencies between infrastructure and economic systems raising important questions about infrastructure vulnerability and resilience. Economic theory is important in this regard as it makes a distinction between damage to infrastructure (stock) and how this may transfer to losses in economic productivity (flow). In order to capture the economic consequences of infrastructure failure, various economic models have been proposed to represent the multimodal complex networks and capture the effects of cascading infrastructure failure. There is still no consensus on the correct approach for estimating economic loss. The method commonly known as input-output analysis has gained the most attention in recent years for its ability to model indirect or higher-order economic losses. The typical input-output approach has spawned an entire field of related models which include: the inoperability input-output model (IIM); Ghosh supply-side model; dynamic input-output models; key-linkages analysis; as well as inventory based models amongst others. Amongst the various methods used to model infrastructure failure this paper identifies the assumptions and shortcomings that must be overcome to produce better estimates of economic loss. Firstly, critical infrastructure systems are connected to the economy through both physical and economic linkages. Models need to capture both types of linkage to accurately represent how cascading infrastructure failure will lead to economic loss and then how sectoral losses may have an indirect impact on infrastructure systems. Secondly, input-output based approaches assume that the economic structure within an economy remains stable during a disaster and throughout the recovery process. New models are required that are able to capture substitution of goods and structural change within an economy. Thirdly, models of economic loss are generally deterministic in nature and thus give no indication about the uncertainty behind model-based estimates. Economic loss estimates using probability theory and methods such as Monte-Carlo simulations or fuzzy logic may prove to be important avenues for quantifying uncertainty in economic loss estimates resulting from infrastructure failure.

The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa, if it resulted in multiple clusters of cases in United... more The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa, if it resulted in multiple clusters of cases in United States and Europe, could cost the world’s economy over a Trillion dollars in lost output.
The Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies has modelled the consequences of the upper bounds of published epidemiological projections for how many Ebola cases might be expected in the US and Europe as a result of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. The public is likely to react to the horror of this virulent disease in their community as they have done with similar virulent diseases in the past (SARS, polio, Avian Flu) by reducing economic consumption and decreasing labour participation. The consequence of this on today’s fragile economy is to trigger a period of reduced economic growth and increased unemployment. In 2015, 1% of the world’s GDP ($0.76 Trillion) would be lost, relative to the expected economic trajectory if the Ebola scenario does not occur. The economic shock waves would continue for several years, ultimately taking $1.4 Trillion from the world’s economic output that would otherwise be expected over the next 5 years.
This scenario is not a prediction or an expected outcome, but is described as a ‘contingency’ scenario to help businesses put in place preparedness measures to improve their resilience to disruption from future infectious disease epidemics.

Infected passengers spread the pandemic from country to country. Colour coding shows the simulate... more Infected passengers spread the pandemic from country to country. Colour coding shows the simulated spread of the São Paulo Virus Pandemic over time.

The world's largest commercial companies and their trading relationships, showing the systemic li... more The world's largest commercial companies and their trading relationships, showing the systemic linkages through major software providers, using Oracle as an example.

Investment in renewable energy technology, such as wave power, is increasingly seen as a benefici... more Investment in renewable energy technology, such as wave power, is increasingly seen as a beneficial and economically-viable alternative to existing fossil-based power plants.

Abstract Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand acros... more Abstract Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock is developed. The model offers an important link that connects building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables.

Improving the efficiency and performance of the residential building stock is necessary for meeti... more Improving the efficiency and performance of the residential building stock is necessary for meeting future energy and climate change targets. Building Performance Evaluation and Certification (BPEC) tools are vital for estimating and recommending cost effective improvements to building energy efficiency. In the UK, building performance is estimated using the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) for new dwellings and Reduced SAP (RdSAP) for existing dwellings.

Energy consumption from the residential sector is a complex socio-technical problem that can be e... more Energy consumption from the residential sector is a complex socio-technical problem that can be explained using a combination of physical, demographic and behavioural characteristics of a dwelling and its occupants. A structural equation model (SEM) is introduced to calculate the magnitude and significance of explanatory variables on residential energy consumption.

Abstract As global fuel reserves are depleted, alternative and more efficient forms of energy gen... more Abstract As global fuel reserves are depleted, alternative and more efficient forms of energy generation and delivery will be required. Combined Heat and Power with District Heating (CHP‐DH) provides an alternative energy production and delivery mechanism that is less resource intensive, more efficient and provides greater energy security than many popular alternatives.

Investment in renewable energy technology, such as wave power, is increasingly seen as a benefici... more Investment in renewable energy technology, such as wave power, is increasingly seen as a beneficial and economically-viable alternative to existing fossil-based power plants. New Zealand has particularly energetic ocean waves and is well positioned to harness wave energy as a source of power. This thesis presents an in-depth analysis of scale-model experiments conducted on a novel WEC (Wave Energy Converter) device called the 'spar fork'.

In this paper, we postulate that some of the best opportunities for reducing energy demand and ca... more In this paper, we postulate that some of the best opportunities for reducing energy demand and carbon emissions are through stronger involvement and leadership from local government. We show that local government can and do have a significant impact on both energy production and energy consumption and are important participants for the implementation of distributed generation (DG). the progress being made by successful local governments can be narrowed to three key factors.

It has been argued the UK has experienced significant underinvestment in critical infrastructure ... more It has been argued the UK has experienced significant underinvestment in critical infrastructure over the last two decades. This in turn has resulted in infrastructure that is less capable of assisting the UK economy to grow. This article seeks to undertake an in-depth analysis of the inter-linkages and economic contributions from infrastructure within the UK. It explores the relationship between nine infrastructure sectors and how these sectors contribute to the rest of the UK economy using keylinkage analysis. Each infrastructure sector is shown to be unique in the way it interacts with other economic sectors and in the form of contribution it makes to the economy overall. Infrastructure is found to be a necessary and important part of economic development. The analysis finds that over the last 23 years there has been a decline in the relative economic contribution from infrastructure to UK GVA. Only two infrastructure sectors increased their relative contribution to GVA since 1992. These were the water transport sector and sewerage and sanitary services sector. Railway transport and gas distribution have had the largest relative decline in contribution towards UK GVA with relative contributions decreasing by over 50 % since 1992. The three most important infrastructure sectors contributing to UK GDP are land transport, electricity production and distribution and telecommunications respectively.

Infrastructure failure can cause significant disruption of economic activity. The size of economi... more Infrastructure failure can cause significant disruption of economic activity. The size of economic loss is a direct function of the interdependencies between infrastructure and economic systems raising important questions about infrastructure vulnerability and resilience. Economic theory is important in this regard as it makes a distinction between damage to infrastructure (stock) and how this may transfer to losses in economic productivity (flow). In order to capture the economic consequences of infrastructure failure, various economic models have been proposed to represent the multimodal complex networks and capture the effects of cascading infrastructure failure. There is still no consensus on the correct approach for estimating economic loss. The method commonly known as input-output analysis has gained the most attention in recent years for its ability to model indirect or higher-order economic losses. The typical input-output approach has spawned an entire field of related models which include: the inoperability input-output model (IIM); Ghosh supply-side model; dynamic input-output models; key-linkages analysis; as well as inventory based models amongst others. Amongst the various methods used to model infrastructure failure this paper identifies the assumptions and shortcomings that must be overcome to produce better estimates of economic loss. Firstly, critical infrastructure systems are connected to the economy through both physical and economic linkages. Models need to capture both types of linkage to accurately represent how cascading infrastructure failure will lead to economic loss and then how sectoral losses may have an indirect impact on infrastructure systems. Secondly, input-output based approaches assume that the economic structure within an economy remains stable during a disaster and throughout the recovery process. New models are required that are able to capture substitution of goods and structural change within an economy. Thirdly, models of economic loss are generally deterministic in nature and thus give no indication about the uncertainty behind model-based estimates. Economic loss estimates using probability theory and methods such as Monte-Carlo simulations or fuzzy logic may prove to be important avenues for quantifying uncertainty in economic loss estimates resulting from infrastructure failure.

The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa, if it resulted in multiple clusters of cases in United... more The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa, if it resulted in multiple clusters of cases in United States and Europe, could cost the world’s economy over a Trillion dollars in lost output.
The Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies has modelled the consequences of the upper bounds of published epidemiological projections for how many Ebola cases might be expected in the US and Europe as a result of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. The public is likely to react to the horror of this virulent disease in their community as they have done with similar virulent diseases in the past (SARS, polio, Avian Flu) by reducing economic consumption and decreasing labour participation. The consequence of this on today’s fragile economy is to trigger a period of reduced economic growth and increased unemployment. In 2015, 1% of the world’s GDP ($0.76 Trillion) would be lost, relative to the expected economic trajectory if the Ebola scenario does not occur. The economic shock waves would continue for several years, ultimately taking $1.4 Trillion from the world’s economic output that would otherwise be expected over the next 5 years.
This scenario is not a prediction or an expected outcome, but is described as a ‘contingency’ scenario to help businesses put in place preparedness measures to improve their resilience to disruption from future infectious disease epidemics.

Infected passengers spread the pandemic from country to country. Colour coding shows the simulate... more Infected passengers spread the pandemic from country to country. Colour coding shows the simulated spread of the São Paulo Virus Pandemic over time.

The world's largest commercial companies and their trading relationships, showing the systemic li... more The world's largest commercial companies and their trading relationships, showing the systemic linkages through major software providers, using Oracle as an example.

Investment in renewable energy technology, such as wave power, is increasingly seen as a benefici... more Investment in renewable energy technology, such as wave power, is increasingly seen as a beneficial and economically-viable alternative to existing fossil-based power plants.

Abstract Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand acros... more Abstract Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock is developed. The model offers an important link that connects building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables.

Improving the efficiency and performance of the residential building stock is necessary for meeti... more Improving the efficiency and performance of the residential building stock is necessary for meeting future energy and climate change targets. Building Performance Evaluation and Certification (BPEC) tools are vital for estimating and recommending cost effective improvements to building energy efficiency. In the UK, building performance is estimated using the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) for new dwellings and Reduced SAP (RdSAP) for existing dwellings.

Energy consumption from the residential sector is a complex socio-technical problem that can be e... more Energy consumption from the residential sector is a complex socio-technical problem that can be explained using a combination of physical, demographic and behavioural characteristics of a dwelling and its occupants. A structural equation model (SEM) is introduced to calculate the magnitude and significance of explanatory variables on residential energy consumption.

Abstract As global fuel reserves are depleted, alternative and more efficient forms of energy gen... more Abstract As global fuel reserves are depleted, alternative and more efficient forms of energy generation and delivery will be required. Combined Heat and Power with District Heating (CHP‐DH) provides an alternative energy production and delivery mechanism that is less resource intensive, more efficient and provides greater energy security than many popular alternatives.

Investment in renewable energy technology, such as wave power, is increasingly seen as a benefici... more Investment in renewable energy technology, such as wave power, is increasingly seen as a beneficial and economically-viable alternative to existing fossil-based power plants. New Zealand has particularly energetic ocean waves and is well positioned to harness wave energy as a source of power. This thesis presents an in-depth analysis of scale-model experiments conducted on a novel WEC (Wave Energy Converter) device called the 'spar fork'.

In this paper, we postulate that some of the best opportunities for reducing energy demand and ca... more In this paper, we postulate that some of the best opportunities for reducing energy demand and carbon emissions are through stronger involvement and leadership from local government. We show that local government can and do have a significant impact on both energy production and energy consumption and are important participants for the implementation of distributed generation (DG). the progress being made by successful local governments can be narrowed to three key factors.