Mahalia Jackman | University of the West Indies- Cave Hill (Barbados) (original) (raw)

Conference Presentations by Mahalia Jackman

This paper uses a two-step Markov-switching error correction model to determine the impact of gov... more This paper uses a two-step Markov-switching error correction model to determine the impact of government employment on the labour market in Barbados, a small island developing Caribbean state. The results suggest that there is partial crowding out, as public sector hiring reduces private employment but the net impact of unemployment is negative. In addition, the evidence suggests that tax and debt expense channels are two conduits through which crowding out can occur

The internet has become one of the most effective means for travellers to seek information on des... more The internet has become one of the most effective means for travellers to seek information on destinations. This paper uses support vector regressions (SVRs) and Google search data to test whether observing internet habits can provide insights on trends in tourist arrivals to Barbados. We find evidence that Google Trends data may be used to (informally) pick up on changing patterns and trends in tourist arrivals from the UK and Canada. But while graphical analysis show some similar patterns in the Google data and reported data on US arrivals, we find no evidence to suggest that Google data provides adds any significant information to what can be “learned” from an autoregressive-SVR.

Papers by Mahalia Jackman

Annals of Tourism Research

This paper argues that length of stay is a reflection of the distance between the origin and dest... more This paper argues that length of stay is a reflection of the distance between the origin and destination country. Past interpretations of distance premised on spatial aspects. This study extends the dimensional space of distance to include socio-psychological dimensions, climate distance and economic distance. Our empirical analysis utilizes airport data covering over 350,000 pleasure tourists to Barbados from 144 countries. The results suggest that the length of stay of pleasure tourists to Barbados increases with geographic distance, cultural distance and climatic distance, but is inversely related to economic distance. We find no evidence that long-distance relationships (captured by transnational and diasporic relationships) affect tourist length of stay. Implications of these findings are provided.

This study evaluated the extent to which people living in Barbados, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobag... more This study evaluated the extent to which people living in Barbados, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago believe that the anti-gay laws currently in place: (1) reflect moral standards; (2) stop the spread of homosexuality; (3) are important from a public health perspective; and (4) protect young people from abuse. Analysis reveals that demographics, religion, interpersonal contact and beliefs about the origin of homosexuality all influenced an individual’s views on the usefulness of the anti-gay laws in these states, but the significance of their impacts varied substantially across the arguments.

There have been numerous attempts at the formation of regional policy groupings within Latin Amer... more There have been numerous attempts at the formation of regional policy groupings within Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This paper analyses whether or not there has been any convergence in the macroeconomic policies pursued by member countries using realised correlation analysis and panel unit root tests of convergence for 26 LAC countries and observations covering the period 1970 to 2005. The study finds evidence of comovement in monetary, fiscal, trade and capital account policies, with the strength of association rising over time. The main determinants of the strength of comovement were similarity in economic size, economic shocks, transportation costs and population size. JEL Classification: E63; O54; C22

The aim of this study was to evaluate support for current buggery/sodomy laws in three Caribbean ... more The aim of this study was to evaluate support for current buggery/sodomy laws in three Caribbean countries—Barbados, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. To complete this task, data from the 2013 Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) ‘Attitudes towards homosexuals’ surveys were employed. The data analysis revealed that a majority of heterosexuals in the sample generally supported the maintenance and enforcement of the anti-gay laws, and the main predictors of said support were race, country of residence, religiosity, interpersonal contact and beliefs about the origins of homosexuality.

Like many developing states, Barbados has historically used education as a means of economic deve... more Like many developing states, Barbados has historically used education as a means of economic development. Specifically, for over three decades, the Barbados Government has provided free education from the primary to the tertiary level. This article investigates the benefits associated with higher education. Based on a sample of 400 Barbadians, the authors find that education has a positive impact on income and contributes to lower within-group wage inequality.

This paper investigates the relationship between tourism specialization and output volatility in ... more This paper investigates the relationship between tourism specialization and output volatility in a sample of 34 small island developing states (SIDS). The initial results suggest that there is a positive relationship between tourism and output volatility. Then, to test whether or not the impact of tourism is uniform across SIDS, the author divides the sample of SIDS by their regional groupings. The positive relationship between tourism specialization and volatility seems to be isolated to states in the Asia and Pacific region; that is, the region with the lowest level of tourism specialization on average. However, an evaluation of the fluctuations in tourism receipts indicates that the average volatility of tourism is highest in this region. This implies that the impact of tourism on economic volatility depends greatly on the level of volatility in tourism and, to a lesser extent, on the level of specialization.

1 In Barbados, the so-called 'winter' season that falls between December and March is considered ... more 1 In Barbados, the so-called 'winter' season that falls between December and March is considered to be the peak time of the year for tourist arrivals. Businesses and policymakers structure their policies and operations to capitalise on the expected surge in arrivals during that period. But what if the long-held views on Barbados' tourists seasons were wrong? What if seasonality trends had changed? Our research suggests that seasonal trends in tourist arrivals have been evolving and these traditional notions of the tourist season in Barbados may need to be revised.

Digital piracy is one of the most popular forms of intellectual property theft and is currently r... more Digital piracy is one of the most popular forms of intellectual property theft and is currently recognised as a crime in several countries. This begs the question, if persons are fully informed that digital file sharing is a crime and, if caught, can be legally prosecuted, why do individuals opt to engage in such criminal behaviour? This paper seeks to determine the psychological, social and economic factors influencing digital piracy. Understanding the social and psychological features of digital pirates is necessary if effected strategies are to be developed to deter the practice of digital piracy. In this paper, a representative sample drawn from the population of Barbados was surveyed. The conceptual models were estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression, Tobit estimation and quantile regression. The results suggest that intentions and willingness to pay both have a significant impact on digital piracy. Intentions are in turn influenced by the pirate’s attitude, perceived consequences, ethics, education level and environment. Finally, a facilitating environment and perceived importance of the piracy issue help to predict’ willingness to pay for digital products.

The labor market effects of remittances have long been examined in the empirical literature. To d... more The labor market effects of remittances have long been examined in the empirical literature. To date, the results have been mixed: some authors observe a negative association between remittances and unemployment while others report that remittances increase unemployment. This study empirically examines the impact of remittances on unemployment using macroeconomic data for a sample of 18 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Specifically, the study tests whether there is a nonlinear relationship between the variables. Results suggest that when the remittance-to-GDP ratio is low, remittances have a positive and significant impact on unemployment. However, as they increase, remittances are negatively associated with unemployment. This suggests the possibility that estimations based on the assumption of a linear relationship between remittances and labor may mask the true relationship between the variables.

Tourism Analysis, 2013

This study examined the impact of crime on tourism to Barbados using a transfer function approach... more This study examined the impact of crime on tourism to Barbados using a transfer function approach. The results indicate that an increase in the overall crime rate has a negative and significant impact on arrivals to the island, and that the fall-off is delayed, starting six months after a one-unit increase in the crime rate. An impulse response function shows that a onepercent shock to crime significantly reduces arrivals to Barbados, but it takes about 20 months for arrivals to return to normalcy. This results in direct income losses of over USD 47,000andindirectlossesofUSD47,000 and indirect losses of USD 47,000andindirectlossesofUSD108,000. Impacts for the murder, assault with intent to rob, rape and residential burglary rates were also investigated. Qualitatively, the results resemble those for the overall crime rate; however, the magnitudes of the impacts are greater and income losses are generally in the millions. Given the country's dependence on tourism receipts to sustain its current account deficits, significant shocks to the crime rate can lead to serious balance of payment problems. Since there is a lag before the impact of increases in crime takes its full toll on arrivals to the country, it is advised that at the first sign of heightened criminal activity, policymakers should act to minimise losses.

Over the last three decades, the world has witnessed an unparalleled rise in remittances. Given t... more Over the last three decades, the world has witnessed an unparalleled rise in remittances. Given the scale, trend and potential impact of these flows, several researchers have focused on determining the factors influencing remittance behaviour. But, while several studies exist on the determinants of remittances at both the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels, the literature has been largely silent on the factors influencing remittance volatility. Using a panel of 93 countries, it is found that altruistic factors (such as the age dependency ratio and the standard of living), insurance motives (captured by economic shocks at home and natural disasters), portfolio variables (interest rate volatility and exchange rate volatility), the share of skilled migrants and economic volatility in the sending country all have significant impacts on remittance volatility. However, significant differences exist across the various country groupings. This may suggest that cross-country studies based on average behavior can conceal differences in remittance behavior across regions and can even lead to erroneous conclusions.

Household consumption expenditure is the largest component of aggregate demand in Barbados, and s... more Household consumption expenditure is the largest component of aggregate demand in Barbados, and so, changes in consumption behaviour generally have significant effects on economic growth and the economic outlook. It is also a measure of economic well-being, with broad-based increases indicating social progress. This article evaluates recent trends in household consumption expenditure (per capita) in Barbados. It begins by discussing changes in household consumption in Barbados since the onset of the crisis. Then, it attempts to show how recent shocks to macroeconomic variables such as income, unemployment and credit conditions may have affected household consumption. Finally, the study considers the persistence of shocks to household consumption expenditure. Specifically, it assesses the duration and size of previous contractionary states of household spending in Barbados.

""In testing the tourism-led growth hypothesis, researchers tend to use an aggregate measure of t... more ""In testing the tourism-led growth hypothesis, researchers tend to use an aggregate measure of tourism - usually total tourism earnings or tourist arrivals. In contrast, this study adopts a disaggregated market approach to testing this hypothesis. The main advantage of the disaggregated approach is that it provides information on effects of specific tourism markets on growth. Results indicate that while causality from tourism to growth is found for each market over the full sample period (1975Q1 to 2010Q2), but the causal relationships are not stable.
""

Since tourism is the most important economic activity in many Caribbean countries, the accurate f... more Since tourism is the most important economic activity in many Caribbean countries, the accurate forecast of tourist arrivals is critical predicting overall macroeconomic performance in this region. This study utilized Structural Time Series Modelling to explain and forecast tourist arrivals to Barbados from its major generating markets. The procedure will allow one to extract the maximum amount of information contained in the series on tourist arrivals while at the same time to include any other information relevant to forecasting arrivals. This study found these models offered valuable insights into the stylized facts of tourism behaviour and provided reliable out-of-sample forecasts.

This study examines the disciplinary effect of monetary union in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM... more This study examines the disciplinary effect of monetary union in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM); specifically, whether there is a systematic difference between fiscal discipline in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), a sub-regional grouping in CARICOM and other CARICOM members which retain monetary sovereignty. Fixed effects estimation is applied to a panel of 12 CARICOM countries over the period . Results indicate that non-ECCU countries are relatively more fiscally disciplined than ECCU countries, and that the dissimilarities between the 2 groups may be attributed to differences in real GDP per capita, openness, net international reserves and financial depth.

Cepal Review, 2011

This paper uses an error correction model to investigate empirically the effectiveness of central... more This paper uses an error correction model to investigate empirically the effectiveness of central bank interest rate policy in influencing commercial banks’ lending rate behaviour in Barbados and the Bahamas using quarterly data for the period January 1995 April 2007. For Barbados, the study finds that the reaction of commercial bank lending rates to changes in the central bank’s policy rate is sticky in the short run, but fully complete in the long run. On average, it takes about four to six quarters for the full effect of changes in the central bank policy rate to be transmitted to the economy via adjustments. For the Bahamas, the reaction of commercial bank lending rates to changes in the central bank policy rate is fully complete in the short run and the long run, owing to a low adjustment cost coupled with the use of moral suasion.

This paper analyses the competitiveness of eighteen small island developing states (SIDS) over th... more This paper analyses the competitiveness of eighteen small island developing states (SIDS) over the period 2000–2007 employing the technique of revealed comparative advantage. We find that most SIDS had at the very least a weak comparative advantage on average. Of particular note, the results indicate that competitiveness in most SIDS increased over the sample period. However, in spite of their improvements, none of the countries at any point in time displayed a strong comparative advantage. This would then call for a need for policy makers in SIDS to further upgrade their tourism products in order to improve competitiveness and sustain tourism.

Annals of Tourism Research

Tourism Analysis, 2013

Cepal Review, 2011

This paper incorporates the Castle and Hendry (2010) portmanteau test into an EGARCH-M model to i... more This paper incorporates the Castle and Hendry (2010) portmanteau test into an EGARCH-M model to investigate non-linearities in the reaction of daily foreign exchange activity to the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Barbadosa small open economy which has been pegged to the US dollar for over 35 years. The results suggest that changes in the interest differential have a significant and non-linear effect on the Barbadian foreign exchange market. The linear spread term is positive, and so is in line with a theory of uncovered interest parity for an economy with a fixed exchange rate. But, all other spread coefficients have a negative sign, implying that asymmetry is present. Thus, it is possible that there is a threshold at which foreign currencies no longer conform to the uncovered interest parity condition but rather, are negatively correlated with interest spreads. Finally, these findings were consistent in the pre-financial crisis analysis.

Central Bank of Barbados Economic Review, 2012

"The Central Bank of Barbados often intervenes – buys or sells from the foreign exchange (FX) res... more "The Central Bank of Barbados often intervenes – buys or sells from the foreign exchange (FX) reserves – to ensure the daily clearing of the FX market. This paper estimates an FX intervention function for Barbados using a dynamic complementary log-log model. Three general findings emerged: (i) dynamics play an important role in the Central Bank’s intervention function, meaning that the probability that an intervention takes place today is conditional upon an intervention taking place at least one day prior. This most likely reflects the fact that deficits/surpluses on the FX market tend to be persistent, resulting in intervention over a consecutive number of days; (ii) there appears to be some differences in the response of Central Bank interventions to the other key variables. Particularly, seasonal fluctuations in tourism and interest rate spreads are likely to impact the probability of a sale intervention, but don’t seem to affect the likelihood of a purchase intervention. Moreover, an influx of real estate flows is likely to increase the probability that a purchase intervention takes place, but might have limited impact on the marginal propensity of a sale intervention. Finally, (iii) ‘oil price shocks’ is the only exogenous variable which appears to impact both sale and purchase interventions."